红利龙头

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中国神华(601088):分红提升再显龙头实力,千亿资产收购打开国改新篇
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 11:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 44.79 CNY [5][11]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leader in the coal sector, with expected capacity increases in the future. The report suggests that the coal market has reached its bottom in the first half of 2025, and a recovery in supply and demand is anticipated, enhancing the investment value of the company [2][11]. - The company reported a total revenue of 138.11 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion CNY, down 8.6% year-on-year, which exceeded market expectations [11]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 79% based on its mid-term profits, signaling a commitment to high dividends, which is higher than the 75% distribution rate for the 2024 fiscal year [11]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported total revenue of 343.07 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 319.69 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 5.5% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 59.69 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.44 billion CNY in 2025, a decline of 15.7% [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.49 CNY in 2025, down from 3.00 CNY in 2023 [4][12]. Operational Insights - The company achieved a coal production of 165 million tons in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales down by 3.4% [11]. - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 493 CNY per ton, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year [11]. - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with cash on hand amounting to 161.5 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of only 31.12% [11].
中国神华:2024年报点评:盈利稳健、分红比例提升,红利龙头价值凸显-20250324
EBSCN· 2025-03-24 01:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable profitability and an increased dividend payout ratio, highlighting its value as a dividend leader [1] - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of CNY 338.375 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 58.671 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year [1][4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% for the years 2025-2027, with a 2024 dividend payout of CNY 2.26 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.17% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 327 million tons, up 0.8% year-on-year, and coal sales of 459 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The company's coal business revenue was CNY 268.618 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year, with a total profit of CNY 54.365 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year [2] - The electricity business saw an increase in sales volume, leading to a gross profit growth, with total electricity sales of 210.28 billion kWh, up 5.3% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 10.7% and 12.3% to CNY 54.293 billion and CNY 55.975 billion, respectively [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be CNY 2.73 and CNY 2.82, respectively [4][5] Dividend Policy - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 76.5% for 2024, with a corresponding annual dividend yield of 6.2% [3][4] - The board has proposed a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, ensuring a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% [3]