【7月纯碱主力09合约价格先扬后抑，8月或弱势调整】7月，纯碱主力09合约在宏观与产业交织博弈 下，价格波动弹性放大。外部情绪扰动是影响价格波动的关键，市场情绪反复多变加剧了价格调整幅 度。 中上旬，在反内卷等政策乐观预期下，盘面快速拉涨。但月底宏观政策弱于预期，市场情绪快速 降温，拖累纯碱价格弱势下探。 基本面方面，纯碱负荷环比下降，但下游采购意愿欠佳，终端需求疲 软，产业库存和交割库存环比均增加。现阶段，纯碱库存绝对量压力大，09合约面临交割逻辑，成本支 撑弱化，价格下行调整加速。 后续来看，纯碱供给端缩量有限，新增产能释放预期下，未来供给压力 渐显。需求端或面临缩量预期，光伏玻璃缩量更凸显，纯碱将面临供增需弱压力，盘面承压。 外围情 绪扰动仍是影响价格变动的关键，预估8月纯碱盘面弱势调整概率较大。 套利方面，09合约转至现货交 割逻辑，目前交割库容偏紧，期现出货不顺畅，后续仍将承压。现阶段SA09&01价差偏弱运行，后续 主力移仓价差进一步走弱空间有限，建议前期反套获利平仓。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Insights - Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical announced a reduction maintenance for its soda ash facility starting April 29, expected to last about half a month, which will significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics in the soda ash industry [1] - The soda ash market is experiencing rising demand due to economic recovery, but companies are facing challenges from increasing raw material costs and stricter environmental regulations [1][2] - Other soda ash producers are also adjusting their operations, with several facilities running at reduced capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply and possible price increases [2][3] Industry Dynamics - The soda ash market is currently seeing price fluctuations, with light soda ash prices ranging from 1050 to 1670 RMB/ton and heavy soda ash prices from 1050 to 1700 RMB/ton [6] - Recent maintenance activities and pre-holiday stockpiling have led to a temporary price increase, but the market is now stabilizing with reduced trading activity [6][7] - The overall operating rate in the soda ash industry is approximately 89.50%, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [15] Supply Chain Adjustments - Various soda ash facilities are undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, including Shandong Haihua and Shaanxi Xinghua, which are both running at lower loads [2][14] - The total inventory of soda ash in the domestic market has increased to 1.7 million tons, up from 1.67 million tons the previous week [17] - The production profit for the soda ash industry has seen a slight increase, with the profit from the soda ash production process using the ammonia-soda method rising to 50 RMB/ton [10][11] Price Trends - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term due to a tightening supply situation, while demand remains relatively stable [7] - The price comparison across different regions shows variations, with some areas experiencing price increases while others see declines [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to stable demand [7][22]