Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the glass industry. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the medium to long term, so it is considered bearish. However, considering the possible improvement in sales in Hebei and the relatively strong macro - expectations, short - term long positions can be tried for the 01 contract [3]. - The 09 contract has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended that short positions stop profit and exit [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to try short - term long positions. The 01 contract should pay attention to the support level of 1160 - 1170 and try short - term long positions for one week [2][3]. 02 & 03 Market Review - **Price Changes**: As of August 8, the 5mm float glass market price in North China was 1,180 yuan/ton (-60), in Central China was 1,190 yuan/ton (-30), and in East China was 1,270 yuan/ton (-40). The glass 09 contract closed at 1063 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [10]. - **Spread Changes**: As of August 8, the difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 269 yuan/ton (+115). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 77 yuan/ton (-21), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 133 yuan/ton (-11) [12][15]. 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,592 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was - 322 yuan/ton (-37). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,180 yuan/ton (+9), and the gross profit was 0 yuan/ton (-69). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,106 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was 84 yuan/ton (-27) [16][20]. 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 158,355 tons/day (+600), with 223 production lines in operation. The No. 1 float line of Zhejiang Futele restarted with a daily melting volume of 600T/D [22]. 06 Inventory - As of August 8, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,184.7 million weight boxes (+234.8). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest China all increased, and the inventories in Shahe and Hubei factories also rose [26][32]. 07 Deep - processing - On August 4, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 87% (+7%). On August 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (+2.2%). At the beginning of August, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.55 days (+0.25) [33]. 08 & 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 145,000 and year - on - year increase of 287,000), and sales were 2.904 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 218,000 and year - on - year increase of 352,000). In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 987,000, with a penetration rate of 54% [45]. - **Real Estate**: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters (-2% year - on - year), new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%), construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%), and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). The real estate development investment in June was 1.042416 trillion yuan (-12% year - on - year) [53]. 10 Soda Ash Market - **Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,400 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,350 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,325 yuan/ton (-50), and in South China was 1,500 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,332 yuan/ton last Friday (+76) [55][57]. - **Basis**: The basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract last Friday was 76 yuan/ton (-43) [59]. 11 & 12 & 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method was 1,305 yuan/ton (+5), with a gross profit of 56 yuan/ton (-1); the cost of the joint - alkali method was 1,790 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 69 yuan/ton (-38) [63][65]. - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 744,600 tons (week - on - week increase of 44,800), including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week increase of 24,700) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week increase of 20,100). The inventory was 1.8651 million tons (week - on - week increase of 69,300). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 7,715 (+4,925) [72][78]. - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 378,700 tons (week - on - week decrease of 39,600). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 90.69% (week - on - week decrease of 19.14%). The soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories in July were 25.8 days [86].