1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair and policies) and "weak real - world demand" (a sluggish real - estate market), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on price rebounds. It's expected to continue an oscillatory adjustment in the short term [1]. - The纯碱 market still has an unimproved situation of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It's expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak - trending fluctuation in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened and closed lower, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday high was 1040, the low was 1017, and the closing price was 1019, down 23 yuan/ton or 2.21% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume increased by 168,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 32,126 lots [1]. - Market analysis: The core contradiction lies between supply contraction expectations and weak real - world demand. High inventory restricts price rebounds. Recently, some glass production lines have undergone cold repair, and supply has continued to decline. However, downstream demand recovery is below expectations, and real - estate completion data suppresses far - month demand expectations. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract will return to the fundamental delivery logic [1]. 纯碱 - Market performance: The main 纯碱 contract opened and closed lower, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened in a horn shape, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1177, and the closing price was 1177, down 38 yuan/ton or 3.13% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume decreased by 98,996 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 35,848 lots [2]. - Inventory situation: The total domestic 纯碱 inventory of manufacturers was 1.8648 million tons, an increase of 12,900 tons or 0.70% from last Thursday. Among them, light 纯碱 inventory was 930,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons from the previous period, and heavy 纯碱 inventory was 934,400 tons, an increase of 29,100 tons from the previous period [2]. - Market analysis: The core logic is the unimproved mismatch between supply and demand. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs, providing support. However, due to the expected reduction in float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for 纯碱 is weak, while daily production remains high, resulting in continuous supply pressure. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract will face the contradiction of weak reality and high inventory [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on glass and soda ash (FG/SA) is bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - In Q1, the prices of glass and soda ash were pressured by the loose supply-demand fundamentals, but rebounded periodically due to the market sentiment boosted by the escalating geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. In Q2, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash will continue to be pressured, and the upward drive is restricted by the weak industry demand. The supply reduction is the key to solve the problem of loose supply-demand. Industry customers should focus on selling hedging and cash-and-carry arbitrage [1][3][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Q1 Glass Price Pressured and Fluctuated - Glass futures and spot prices were generally stable with a steady center of gravity and pressured prices in Q1. Affected by administrative production cuts and geopolitical conflicts, glass prices strengthened periodically, with the main contract price fluctuating narrowly between 1050-1150. The price was pushed up by production cuts and geopolitical conflicts but adjusted downward due to the pressured fundamentals. The supply reduction was slow, downstream demand was weak, and inventory pressure was high [4] - The basis fluctuated narrowly, with more opportunities for cash-and-carry trading, and the fluctuations came from the futures side. The inter-month spread also fluctuated narrowly. Glass factory profits were mainly under pressure and fluctuated due to the increase in raw fuel costs and the cautious performance of spot prices [5] 1.2 Soda Ash Price Fluctuated in a Range - The overall trend of soda ash prices in Q1 was similar to that of glass, but with stronger supply elasticity and greater price fluctuations. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, soda ash prices rose significantly but then fell back, with the main contract oscillating between 1150-1270. The price increase was mainly due to the fermentation of the geopolitical conflict, but the pressured fundamentals dragged down the upward movement. The high supply pressure was prominent, and the terminal demand was weak [9] - The basis fluctuated narrowly in Q1, and the inter-month spread narrowed and flattened. There was no obvious supply-demand difference over time, and the spread also fluctuated narrowly [12] 2. Glass Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply to Continue to Decline Steadily in Q2 - From January to February 2026, the output of float glass was 8.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%. In Q1, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased steadily, and the start-up and capacity utilization rates declined. The supply decreased due to the implementation of "clean energy transformation" policies and market self-regulation [16] - The profit continued to be under pressure. The cost of glass production with different fuels was relatively high, and the weekly average profit was negative. In Q2, the supply will continue to decline steadily due to profit squeeze and administrative requirements, although some glass factories have production plans, the new production capacity is expected to be limited [18] 2.2 Demand Generally Weak but Resilient - In Q1, glass demand was generally average but resilient. The glass factory inventory first increased and then decreased, but the overall inventory pressure was still high. Due to the weak real estate and stable manufacturing, the overall demand was weak. In Q2, the demand is expected to remain weak, with the real estate demand being weak in the medium term and the manufacturing demand remaining resilient [20][21] 3. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply Remained at a High Level - Since the beginning of this year, the capacity has been operating at a high level, and the supply has remained high. The cumulative weekly output from the beginning of the year to late March reached 9.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The influence of maintenance reduction cannot be underestimated, and the industry concentration is high. The import has decreased significantly, and the export has improved significantly [23][24] - The national soda ash capacity is currently about 44 million tons. The Alashan Phase II project of Yuanxing Energy has been put into production, and the annual output is expected to increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2026. In Q2, the new production capacity is limited. The anti-involution policy has a limited impact on the supply, mainly affecting the coal price [24] - In Q2, the soda ash supply will still remain high, but the influence of maintenance may disrupt the market. Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical conflict, which will affect the domestic soda ash price in terms of supply, cost, and demand [25] 3.2 Direct Demand Fluctuated, and Terminal Demand was Poor - In Q1, the direct demand for soda ash remained resilient. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased steadily, but the photovoltaic glass capacity increased. Due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products in April, the demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass was supported. However, the terminal demand was poor, and the soda ash demand was under prominent negative feedback pressure [28][29] - In Q2, the poor terminal demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass will continue. The direct demand will be moderately weak, and the soda ash manufacturer inventory may still accumulate. The direct demand may weaken, and the alkali price may be significantly suppressed [29] 4. Summary - In Q1, the prices of glass and soda ash strengthened due to production cuts and geopolitical conflicts but were pressured to fall back by the fundamentals. In Q2, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash will continue to be pressured, and the prices are likely to rebound due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors. The solution to the loose supply-demand lies in supply reduction. Industry customers should focus on supply changes, selling hedging, and cash-and-carry arbitrage [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include short - term and long - term expectations for glass, and the limited valuation elasticity of soda ash due to the excess expectation. The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic may boost the overall valuation [1][2]. - The trading logic for the near - term is to focus on the changes in cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and the cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, attention should be paid to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. - The trend of glass and soda ash has a cost - raising expectation in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Glass**: In the short - term, there are expectations of seasonal demand return and accelerated cold - repair of supply. In the long - term, it is about macro - policy expectations. The daily melting of float glass has dropped to around 145,000 tons, but supply decline alone cannot drive prices independently. Middle - stream high inventory is a risk, and there are ignition expectations despite accelerated cold - repair [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation elasticity is limited due to the unchanged excess expectation. It can only follow the cost. Price movements depend on upstream inventory changes and supply or cost "stories" [2]. - **Reality**: The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic due to overseas geopolitical issues may boost the overall valuation [2]. - **Trading Logic**: For the near - term, focus on cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, pay attention to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term cost - raising expectation, but the upside space is limited. Glass has weak demand, cold - repair and ignition expectations, and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, with limited price elasticity [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The spot prices of various glass products remained unchanged on March 29, 2026. The 05 - contract of glass increased by 0.48% to 1041 yuan/ton on March 27, 2026, while the 09 - contract decreased by 0.42% to 1179 yuan/ton. The daily production and sales in different regions showed fluctuations [13][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on March 27, 2026. The 05 - contract of soda ash increased by 0.33% to 1229 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract increased by 0.15% to 1310 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There is still room for positive feedback in the spot - futures market for both glass and soda ash when the market rises. The overall valuation of glass and soda ash is not high and may be driven by other sectors. There is an expectation of cost increase [16]. - **Negative Information**: No negative information is clearly stated in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. Keep an eye on the cold - repair and ignition expectations of glass production lines, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18][19][21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The expectation of the 05 - contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is large, and the middle - stream inventory is high. There may be a cost - raising expectation in the long - term, but the demand is unclear [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: For glass, the 5 - 9 spread has narrowed due to accelerated cold - repair, and the 05 - contract is facing delivery pressure. For soda ash, it maintains a C - structure, and the long - term excess pattern remains unchanged [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural - gas production lines are in loss, the cost of petroleum - coke has increased significantly, and coal - gas production lines have a small profit [46]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 950 - 1000 yuan/ton [46]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 80,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good export performance [53]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash remains high, accounting for about 6% of the apparent demand. The cumulative export from January to February 2026 was 401,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,800 tons, or 39.03% [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: In March, the cold - repair of float glass accelerated, and the daily melting dropped below 145,000 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized, and the cold - repair rhythm is expected to be faster [57]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash is at a high level, with a weekly production of over 750,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance and capacity of some soda - ash manufacturers [60]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory of glass remains high, and the spot pressure persists. The downstream raw - sheet inventory has increased, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The demand is weak in reality [64]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is moderately weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [76]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes, or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventory remains high [89]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 946,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 905,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Middle East conflict may lead to rising energy prices, affecting glass futures sentiment [5] - Last week, two glass production lines underwent cold repair, reducing output. Current ignition and cold - repair expectations coexist, with spot prices having a significant impact. Glass futures and spot prices declined last week, speculative demand cooled, and apparent demand weakened. High mid - upstream inventory and approaching delivery create negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market, which is bearish for the market. Attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can drive mid - upstream inventory reduction [5] - Energy price changes have less impact on the glass futures market, and fundamental factors play a more important role. Given the high mid - upstream inventory and approaching delivery, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The glass index is expected to range between 1080 - 1180. Key events to watch include downstream demand, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5] Soda Ash - Middle East conflict may lead to rising energy prices, affecting soda ash futures sentiment [6] - The price of ammonium chloride, a by - product of the union - alkali process, has risen, improving the profits of some alkali plants. Soda ash weekly output reached a new high. The output of float and photovoltaic glass declined, putting pressure on the demand side. In the long run, high supply and weak demand mean the inventory build - up trend of soda ash is hard to reverse, which is bearish for the market. High alkali plant inventory is expected to create negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market near delivery [6] - Energy price changes still affect the soda ash futures market. In a situation of loose supply and demand, the soda ash fundamentals are bearish, and the market risk is high. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1220 - 1350. Key events to watch include alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory build - up, and glass output [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of March 20, the market price of 5mm float glass in Central China was 1060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. In North China, it was 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The mainstream glass market prices were stable with a slight decline [11] Supply - Last week, two production lines underwent cold repair, and the output continued to decline. Ignition and cold - repair expectations coexist, with spot prices having a significant impact. Last week, the float glass output was 1.0223 million tons (- 11,000 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 70.56% (- 0.49%) [15] Demand - Downstream production resumed, and the operating rate of Low - e glass was higher than the same period last year. Last week, both the futures and spot prices declined, speculative demand cooled, and traders' inventory was reduced. Glass apparent demand decreased. Last week, the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.8% (+ 2.2%), and the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 21.8595 million weight boxes (- 2.594 million weight boxes) [19] Inventory - Glass futures and spot prices declined, speculative demand cooled, traders' inventory was reduced, and the reduction rate of glass factory inventory slowed down. Current mid - upstream inventory is at a high level. Near the delivery month, the negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market is large, which is bearish for the market. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million weight boxes (- 1.413 million weight boxes); Hubei factory inventory was 7.81 million weight boxes (- 70,000 weight boxes); Shahe factory inventory was 3.8896 million weight boxes (- 450,400 weight boxes); Shahe traders' inventory was 8.16 million weight boxes (- 560,000 weight boxes) [23] - In East China, the overall inventory decreased slightly, but the negotiation atmosphere weakened. Some original sheet enterprises were active in raising prices, and a small number of downstream enterprises stocked up before the price increase, while most took goods based on rigid demand. In Central China, the shipment situation varied, with the overall production - sales ratio exceeding 100% on some days, but being relatively weak on some periods due to weather and market sentiment. Last week, the ending inventory of glass factories in East China was 13.8042 million weight boxes (- 276,800 weight boxes); in North China, it was 11.9596 million weight boxes (- 720,400 weight boxes); in Southwest China, it was 13.646 million weight boxes (- 114,000 weight boxes); in Central China, it was 9.35 million weight boxes (- 120,000 weight boxes) [27] Cost - Last week, glass costs showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1339 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan/ton); using coal - made gas was 1017 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton); using petroleum coke was 1116 yuan/ton (+ 17 yuan/ton) [31] Profit - Last week, glass profits showed mixed trends. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 87.12 yuan/ton (+ 19.57 yuan/ton); using coal - made gas was - 22.24 yuan/ton (+ 17.14 yuan/ton); using petroleum coke was - 21.78 yuan/ton (- 14.28 yuan/ton) [36] Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the glass 05 basis was 16, a week - on - week increase of 81; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 127, a week - on - week decrease of 14. The glass spot price was stable with a slight decline. Last week, the futures market sentiment declined significantly, and the decline of near - month contracts was greater than that of far - month contracts. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern [40] Soda Ash Price - As of March 20, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the market price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai was 1192 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The mainstream light soda ash prices were stable, while heavy soda ash prices were weak [45] Supply - The price of ammonium chloride, a by - product of the union - alkali process, has risen, improving the profits of some alkali plants. Soda ash weekly output reached a new high. The current weekly output is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. With the continued commissioning of new production capacity, soda ash output may further increase. Last week, soda ash output was 818,100 tons (+ 8900 tons), including 384,100 tons of light soda ash (+ 3200 tons) and 434,000 tons of heavy soda ash (+ 5700 tons) [49] Demand - Float glass production lines underwent cold repair, and output declined. Photovoltaic glass output also decreased month - on - month. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is under pressure, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. On March 20, the daily output of float glass was 144,925 tons (- 2000 tons), and the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 89,200 tons (- 160 tons), with a total daily output of 234,125 tons (- 2160 tons) [54] Inventory - Affected by the purchasing and提货 of the middle - stream, alkali plant inventory decreased. Current alkali plant inventory is at a high level. Near delivery, the negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market is large, which is bearish for the market. The current weekly supply of soda ash is at a historical high level, glass output is continuously declining, demand is weak, and the inventory build - up trend of alkali plants is hard to reverse. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons (- 77,900 tons), including 963,100 tons of light soda ash (- 50,500 tons) and 890,700 tons of heavy soda ash (- 27,400 tons) [59] Cost - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs declined. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was 1373.3 yuan/ton (- 0.9 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was 1293.3 yuan/ton (- 0.9 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the union - alkali process was 1052.5 yuan/ton (- 61.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the union - alkali process was 972.5 yuan/ton (- 61.5 yuan/ton) [63] Profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash profits increased. In North China, the gross profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 93.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.9 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of light soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 43.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.9 yuan/ton); in East China, the gross profit of heavy soda ash using the union - alkali process was 147.5 yuan/ton (+ 61.5 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of light soda ash using the union - alkali process was 277.5 yuan/ton (+ 61.5 yuan/ton) [67] Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 10, a week - on - week increase of 10; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 72, a week - on - week decrease of 14. The soda ash spot price was weak. Last week, the futures market sentiment declined significantly, and the decline of near - month contracts was greater than that of far - month contracts. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern [71]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is about the weekly data of the soda ash & glass industry chain, dated March 27, 2026 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Weekly Data - **Supply**: The current week's soda ash开工率 is 81.87%, a decrease of 4.51% from the previous week; the产量 is 77.54 tons, a decrease of 4.27 tons; the重质产量 is 40.74 tons, a decrease of 2.66 tons; the轻质产量 is 36.8 tons, a decrease of 1.61 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The厂内库存 is 185.19 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons; the重质库存 is 90.53 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons; the轻质库存 is 94.66 tons, a decrease of 1.65 tons; the库存可用天数 is 13.69 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [2] - **Profit**: The产销率 is 100.23%, a decrease of 9.4%; the氨碱法毛利 is -26.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9 yuan/ton; the联产法毛利 is 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis & Spread**: The基差 is -20, a decrease of 10; the 1 - 5价差 is -136, a decrease of 17; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 84, an increase of 6; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 189, an increase of 37 [2] Group 3: Glass Weekly Data - **Supply**: The开工率 is 70.119%, a decrease of 0.437%; the产线条数 remains 207; the产量 is 101.4475 tons, a decrease of 0.785 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The库存 is 7362.2 tons, a decrease of 81.4 tons; the库存可用天数 is 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days [2] - **Profit**: The天然气利润 is -83.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57 yuan/ton; the石油焦利润 is -36.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.29 yuan/ton; the煤制气利润 is -22.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis & Spread**: The基差 is -9, an increase of 12; the 1 - 5价差 is -241, a decrease of 48 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The glass market is expected to continue wide - range volatile fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and terminal demand recovery. The core contradiction lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" and "weak real - world demand" [1]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain short - term volatile fluctuations, and attention should be paid to energy price changes and whether the cost of soda ash continues to rise. The core logic is the unimproved supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [3][6]. Summary by Related Content Glass - **Market Performance**: The main glass contract opened high and closed low, with a decline of 23 yuan/ton or 2.17% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume increased by 278,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 128,000 lots. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands show a short - term oscillation signal, with pressure at around 1070 and support at around 1020 [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The core contradiction is the game between "supply contraction expectations" and "weak real - world demand". High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. The real - estate data last month was still sluggish, and the recent downstream demand recovery was also below expectations [1]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main soda ash contract opened high and closed low, with a decline of 15 yuan/ton or 1.21% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume decreased by 197,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 13,841 lots. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands show a short - term oscillation signal, with pressure at around 1260 and support at around 1200 [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, an increase of 40,300 tons or 2.22% compared to Monday. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 1900 tons or 0.10%. The inventory last year was 1.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,900 tons or 13.61% [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The core logic is the unimproved supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks drive up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market, but the rigid demand is weak due to the float glass production reduction expectations and the photovoltaic industry [3].

1. Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Glass - Short - term: Rebound; Medium - term: Sideways market. Short - term pressure factors are forward premium, inventory pressure, and poor demand. Mid - term bullish drivers include anti - deflation, anti - involution, and potential production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. In the first half of 2026, the market may be weak, and it may turn strong in the second half [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term: Rebound; Medium - term: Sideways market. The core pressures are oversupply, forward premium, and future demand pressure from downstream production cuts. Supply may decline during the April - May maintenance period, and light soda demand is relatively good. Exports may slightly ease the oversupply, but it's not enough to reverse the situation. The price is supported by cost on the downside and restricted by oversupply and glass industry production cuts on the upside [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Supply - As of March 19, 2026, there are 294 glass production lines (199,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 207 in production and 87 cold - repaired or shut down. The daily output of float glass is 145,800 tons, a 0.75% decrease from March 12. The average开工率 in the float glass industry this week is 70.55%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease, and the average capacity utilization rate is 73.36%, a 0.72 - percentage - point decrease [2]. - Potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 16,650 tons/day, potential old - line复产 has a total of 10,340 tons/day, and potential cold - repair lines have a total of 13,720 tons/day [6][7][8]. - Usually, the supply side tends to复产 from the second to the third quarter, but low prices limit the space for复产. From January to March, the market mainly focused on production cuts, and the current production capacity in operation is about 145,000 tons/day. The peak production capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. The expected variables for supply - side contraction are mainly environmental factors (switching from petroleum coke to natural gas), and the supply expansion from复产 is mainly due to capacity replacement [9][10]. Glass Price and Profit - The prices in most areas are stable. The price in Shahe is around 1,060 - 1,090 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it's around 1,080 - 1,140 yuan/ton, and in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it's around 1,260 - 1,346 yuan/ton. The basis has weakened due to the rising futures price [16][17]. - The profit of petroleum - coke - fueled production is about - 22 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural - gas - and coal - fueled production are about - 87 and - 22 yuan/ton respectively [21][25]. Glass Inventory and Downstream开工率 - Recently, market transactions have improved, and inventory has decreased. Currently, the inventory is relatively high in most regions, but with the improvement in transactions, the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The key for the later market is whether the market can significantly improve from March to April to boost sales [29][31]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronous, and the price difference has changed little [33]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Attention should be paid to whether there will be an improvement at the end of March or in April. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.0 - 10.5 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.0 - 17.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining flat compared to last week [37][39]. - Capacity and inventory: The capacity has slightly shrunk. There are 405 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 89,700 tons/day, a 1.82% month - on - month increase and a 2.22% year - on - year decrease. The sample inventory days are about 42.87 days, a 1.66% increase month - on - month. Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve slightly after the second quarter, and inventory may start to decline [41][42][47]. 纯碱 Supply and Maintenance - In the second half of March to April, the soda ash market supply may enter a peak maintenance period. Many manufacturers have maintenance plans, such as Zhongyan Kunshan planning to conduct maintenance for about 20 days starting from March 22, and Hubei Shuanghuan planning to conduct maintenance for about 15 days in mid - to early April [50]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 86.3%, down from 87% last week. The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is about 434,000 tons. Under the background of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production cuts, or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive up the rigid demand and inventory replenishment of glass. Currently, the glass production capacity remains stable, but the oversupply pressure of soda ash still exists [52][53]. 纯碱 Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons (4.03%) from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash is 963,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 890,700 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 166,000 tons (9.84%) [56][57]. 纯碱 Price and Profit - In the Shahe area, the low - end price is 1,180 - 1,200 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - cash merchants have slightly decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of manufacturers are concentrated around 1,300 yuan/ton in North China and 1,120 - 1,200 yuan/ton in Central China [64]. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 227 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 25 yuan/ton [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the market rebound. The cost - side support is weakening, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations with a short - term downward adjustment [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks support the market, but the fundamental drivers are weakening, and it faces a risk of downward adjustment [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - The glass main contract opened and closed lower, showing an intraday weak oscillation. The daily - line MACD and MA combination shows a resonance dead - cross, and the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands open downward, indicating a short - term weak oscillation. The pressure is around the 5 - day moving average of 1080, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band line of 1050. The trading volume decreased by 237,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 16,505 lots. The intraday high was 1068, the low was 1051, and the closing price was 1054, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.31% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and weak real - world demand. High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Short - term fuel and soda ash raw material price drops weaken the cost - side support, and the real - estate data remains sluggish, with downstream demand recovery falling short of expectations [1]. - The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations and have a short - term downward adjustment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and terminal demand recovery [1]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract opened and closed lower, showing an intraday weak oscillation. The daily - line MACD and MA combination shows a resonance dead - cross, and the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks point downward, indicating a short - term weak oscillation. The pressure is around the 5 - day moving average of 1220, and the intraday support is around the previous low of 1170. The trading volume decreased by 29,498 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 17,858 lots. The intraday high was 1217, the low was 1194, and the closing price was 1202, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.23% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - The core logic is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks support the market, but the fundamental drivers are weakening, and the trading logic returns to the structural contradiction of weak reality and high inventory [2]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue weak oscillations and adjustments in the short term. Attention should be paid to international energy price changes and whether the high soda ash inventory can continue to be reduced [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main SA2605 contract of soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly and weakly today, rising and then falling, closing slightly lower. This week, it also trended downward with a lower center of gravity, showing a weak overall performance. Currently, the soda ash industry maintains a high operating rate with ample supply. Although the manufacturers' inventory has slightly decreased, it remains at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. Coupled with the weak demand for downstream glass being transmitted to soda ash, the pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at a low level, mainly in a weak consolidation state [3]. - The soda ash futures market this week initially rose due to macro - sentiment and the general rise of commodities, then fell following the fluctuations of crude oil, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, bottom - oscillating". The price center of the main contract actually oscillated in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton. The main contract dropped from around 1350 at the beginning of the week, breaking through the 1300 integer - level mark. The core logic is the dual suppression of high supply, high operating rate, and weak demand. Inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment is pessimistic. Without seeing large - scale maintenance/reduction in supply on the supply side or substantial improvement in demand on the demand side, the price will continue to be under pressure [4]. - The basic supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose. High inventory continues to suppress prices, and production is still increasing with overall supply remaining at a relatively high level. Although inventory has decreased, the overall inventory level is still relatively high, continuously suppressing prices. The demand for heavy soda ash in the downstream float glass industry is weak, further weakening the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand for light soda ash is relatively stable, but the overall demand is difficult to support the continuous upward movement of prices. After the Two Sessions, the expectation of real - estate and domestic - demand recovery has not yet been translated into actual demand boost. International geopolitical and energy - price fluctuations have an impact on market sentiment. Technically, the main contract SA2605 oscillates in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and today's price is close to the lower limit of the range, indicating weak market sentiment. Overall, the soda ash market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term. Fundamentally, it is weak, but the downward space is supported by costs, and the upward space is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended that investors remain cautious and pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm and changes in downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures market initially rose due to macro - sentiment and the general rise of commodities, then fell following the fluctuations of crude oil, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, bottom - oscillating". The price center of the main contract oscillated in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, dropping from around 1350 at the beginning of the week and breaking through the 1300 integer - level mark [4]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 81.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.89 million tons, a growth rate of 1.11%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 38.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 43.40 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity continues to be released and increased, and the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. This week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.38%, compared with 87% last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62% [4]. Demand - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 88.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.85%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 percentage points. The daily melting volume of float glass was 145,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1100 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable week - on - week. Next week, it is expected that 900 float glass production lines will be cold - repaired, and the photovoltaic glass production will remain stable [3]. Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 billion tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 963.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.8 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 890.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.9 million tons [3]. Profit - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 25.30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of sea salt on the raw - material side remained stable, and the price of anthracite continued to decline, with the cost side oscillating downward; the market price of soda ash remained stable, and affected by the strong sentiment, the price had no obvious fluctuations, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process was only slightly adjusted [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflict remains the main influencing factor. The supply - demand of glass has marginal improvement, and its price is supported. The supply - demand of soda ash is average. Geopolitical conflict affects the supply and cost of glass and soda ash, providing short - term price support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand of glass and soda ash is still under pressure. It is recommended to go long on glass in the short term [4][5][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: The daily output of float glass is 146,900 tons, with a decrease of 10,800 tons compared to 5 days ago. The industry's start - up rate is 71.09%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 5 days ago, and the capacity utilization rate is 73.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from 5 days ago. One production line was shut down this week, and one was ignited but has not produced glass yet. Another line will be shut down next week, so the output is expected to decrease steadily [4]. - Demand: Demand is slowly recovering, production and sales are improving, and market confidence is stabilizing, but the improvement space of demand is still limited [4]. - Inventory: The total inventory of enterprises is 75.849 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.788 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a decrease of 4.76% month - on - month and an increase of 7.96% year - on - year. The inventory days are 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days compared to the previous period. Due to cost increases and restored market confidence, inventory may continue to decline [4]. - Investment view: Bullish. The recent geopolitical conflict is the main influencing factor, and the supply - demand has marginal improvement [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Mainly go long on dips; Arbitrage: None [4]. Soda Ash - Supply: This week's soda ash output is 809,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.27%. Among them, the output of light soda ash is 380,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,200 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash is 428,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The overall supply is at a high level [5]. - Demand: Direct demand is stable. The daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass remains stable in the short term, and future demand will mainly be stable [5]. - Inventory: The total inventory of manufacturers is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons compared to last Thursday, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of light soda ash is 1.0136 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 918,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,800 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 196,500 tons, a growth rate of 11.32%. Supported by enterprise orders, production and sales are good, and inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - Investment view: Neutral. The short - term geopolitical conflict is still the dominant factor, and the supply - demand is average [5]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: None [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - The price fluctuated and rose this week. The main contract closed at 1135 (+48), and the Shahe spot price was 972 (+16) [7]. Soda Ash - The price rose this week. The main contract closed at 1277 (+35), and the Shahe spot price was 1236 (+20) [13]. Spread/Basis - The 05 - 09 spread and basis of both soda ash and glass fluctuated [24]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Supply is expected to decrease steadily. The production profit of glass fluctuates. Due to the geopolitical conflict, the price of petroleum coke has risen significantly, compressing the production profit of the petroleum coke process [27]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders are improving, but the real - estate completion data in the middle and later stages is not good. In 2025, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 20.4%, and the completed area decreased by 18.1% [30]. Soda Ash - Supply: The supply has reached a new high. The production profit of soda ash enterprises fluctuates upward. The ammonia - soda process theoretical profit is - 26.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The dual - ton profit of the combined - soda process is 166 yuan/ton, showing a significant upward trend [34][35]. - Demand: The direct demand remains stable in the short term, and the daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass remains stable. The inventory of manufacturers is decreasing. The total inventory is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons compared to last Thursday, a decrease of 0.80% [40].