BZ&Eb周报：BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢 高空的机会 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：原油地缘风险高开之后，关注逢高空的机会 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山东 地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在48万吨左右的高进口，2月之后的进口 仍然在45万吨左右。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月关注恒逸 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The current valuation is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. Due to factors such as styrene's export increase in January, Bohua device maintenance, and the re - mention of anti - involution, the prices of pure benzene and styrene rebounded rapidly. Currently, pure benzene is at the upper end of the range, and styrene's valuation is significantly high, with a risk - free arbitrage window open. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas oil - blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure [2][77]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a 45,000 - ton reduction due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their loads after solving quota problems. In January, attention should be paid to the incremental pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - Pure benzene imports: The external market pressure remains high. South Korea's pure benzene selling pressure was high from November to December, and imports remain high. In January, there are significant differences in import expectations, with an expected high import volume of about 450,000 tons, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the device operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the incremental production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [2][75]. Demand - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of maintenance are expected, and in January, 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the devices [2][75]. - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December, 30,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [2][75]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [2][76]. - Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics: Terminal home appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly recovered. However, 3S still faces high - inventory problems [2][76]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - EB processing fee: The profit will expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to shorting opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - Inter - period: None for now [77]. - Cross - variety: Take short - term profit for PX - BZ [2][77].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of pure benzene (BZ) and styrene (EB) is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. After the New Year's Day holiday, due to the geopolitical risks in crude oil, it is expected that crude oil will open higher on Monday. After the high opening, there are opportunities for short - selling. Currently, BZ is at the upper end of the range, and EB's valuation is significantly high, with the risk - free arbitrage window open [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas gasoline blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure. The PX market is overvalued as a whole, leading some downstream factories to sell raw materials and register a large number of 03 - contracts. The aromatics leading varieties are weakening [2][77]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure Benzene Domestic**: In December 2025, 110,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January 2026. Some Shandong refineries will increase their loads after solving the quota problem. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - **Pure Benzene Import**: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene was high from November to December 2025. The imports are expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons in January 2026, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - **Styrene**: In December 2025, 85,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January 2026. After December, the plant operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the increase in production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [2][75]. - **Caprolactam (CPL)**: The negative feedback of CPL has started, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is expected that 40,000 tons of capacity will be under maintenance in December 2025 and 60,000 tons in January 2026 [2][75]. - **Phenol**: The operation is gradually picking up. In December 2025, 30,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January 2026. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [2][75]. - **Aniline**: In December 2025, 70,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January 2026 may be lower than expected [2][76]. Demand - **Styrene Downstream 3S Hard Rubber**: Terminal household appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly improved. However, 3S still faces high inventory problems [2][76]. - **Caprolactam**: In December 2025, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project, and in January 2026, attention should be paid to the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei. Attention should be paid to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [2][75]. Valuation - **Absolute Price Valuation**: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - **EB Processing Fee**: The processing fee is expected to expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - **Cross - Period**: Not provided currently [77]. - **Cross - Variety**: Take short - term profit on PX - BZ [2][77].

估值 • 绝对价格估值：按照原油60美金估值，BZ2603合约5300-5500元/吨是合理估值。 • EB加工费：短期扩利润。 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。 部分山东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在11月-12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在45万吨左右的高进口， 2月之后的进口待评估。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月 关注恒逸钦州项目的投产，1月关注陕西阳煤的扩产。关注近期己内酰胺利润恢复是否会导致装置提前重启。 • 苯酚：开工逐步回升，12月检修3万吨，1月检修1万吨。山东睿霖新装置投产或有延期。 • 苯胺：12月检修7万吨，主要宁 ...