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中金:25Q4箱板瓦楞纸盈利有望改善 看好年末提价行情
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 09:17
Industry Overview - As of November 28, the prices for various paper types are as follows: double glue paper at 4,733 CNY/ton, copper plate paper at 4,742 CNY/ton, and white card paper at 4,214 CNY/ton, with week-on-week changes of +2, -28, and +0 CNY/ton respectively, and year-on-year changes of -379, -598, and +447 CNY/ton [1][2] - The price of waste yellow board paper is 1,906 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of +12 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of +371 CNY/ton [2] - The social inventory of double glue paper is at a high level, with an increase of 8,000 tons in October [2] Price Trends and Profitability - The recent price increase for box board and waste paper began in July, initially driven by the raw material end and later by seasonal demand, along with production halts and price increase notices from leading companies [3] - The expected improvement in profit per ton for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be limited to within 100 CNY due to rising raw material and energy costs, with variations depending on product structure [3] Specific Paper Types - Cultural paper faces significant price pressure due to increased supply and weak demand for educational materials, with a year-on-year production decline of 10% [4] - The white card paper market is under pressure with a low capacity utilization rate of approximately 63% in October, and the latest estimated gross margin is -5%, indicating low sustainability for price increases [4] Recommended Companies - Short-term focus is on Nine Dragons Paper (02689), while Sun Paper (002078) is favored for the long term [5]