Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The upstream pulp prices are expected to outperform downstream paper prices, indicating a potential cost advantage for leading paper companies with self-sufficient pulp production [3][8] - The current market conditions show that paper prices are at historical lows, while pulp prices have maintained a stronger position, leading to a divergence in profitability between companies with self-produced pulp and those relying on external sources [8] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts may further strengthen the trend of upstream pulp prices outperforming downstream paper prices due to supply chain vulnerabilities [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Upstream vs. Downstream Performance - Upstream pulp prices are anticipated to perform better than downstream paper prices, with a focus on companies that have invested in self-sufficient pulp production [3][8] - The current pricing dynamics show that paper prices are below the 5th percentile of historical data, while pulp prices are around the 30-40th percentile, indicating a significant cost pressure on paper companies relying on external pulp [8] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Sun Paper (002078), Xianhe Co. (603733), Wuzhou Special Paper (605007), and Nine Dragons Paper (02689) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their upstream pulp production capabilities [3] Market Trends - The paper market is experiencing a seasonal low, with cultural paper prices not showing the expected seasonal increase, while pulp prices continue to rise [8] - The waste paper segment has seen a slight price increase post-holiday due to low inventory levels, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [8]

Investment Logic - The paper industry exhibits HALO asset characteristics, with heavy assets, low elimination rates, and long-term value stability. Supply policies are expected to accelerate the release of cyclical elasticity [3] - The carbon peak target by 2030 and the implementation of dual control on carbon emissions are likely to accelerate the elimination of small capacities and improve supply-demand dynamics in the paper industry [3][7] - The overseas pulp mills have strong coordination and production control willingness, leading to a gradual stabilization and rebound in hardwood pulp prices since the second half of 2025 [3][16] - The long-term outlook for pulp prices is bullish due to the high concentration and coordination of overseas pulp mills, making it difficult for prices to fall [3][19] Supply and Demand Summary - The supply-demand structure changes will determine the industry's prosperity over the long term [4] - The paper industry has experienced prolonged bottoming out, but capital expenditures are expected to taper off by 2026, leading to gradual recovery [6] - The dual control of carbon emissions is anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation and improve supply-demand conditions [8][10] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp market is characterized by significant price volatility, influenced by global economic cycles, new capacity releases, and supply-side reforms [11][15] - The average price of domestic needle and hardwood pulp as of March 20, 2026, was 5,128 and 4,531 CNY per ton, respectively, with a narrowing price gap [22] - The supply of pulp is expected to improve significantly in 2026 due to a slowdown in new capacity additions [27][29] Paper Types Overview - The demand for cultural paper is weak, influenced by declining birth rates and changing consumption patterns, with a projected 6% decrease in double glue paper consumption in 2025 [30][32] - The white card paper market is expected to benefit from the substitution of plastic with paper, with strong growth potential despite recent slowdowns in domestic demand [55] - The boxboard and corrugated paper markets are showing slight improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on domestic and export demand changes [3][4] Industry Recommendations - Companies with integrated supply chains and significant cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, are recommended for investment as they are likely to benefit from improving supply-demand conditions [3][4] - In the specialty paper segment, firms with strong management capabilities and high dividends, such as Huawang Technology and Xianhe Co., are suggested for consideration [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures market maintains a weak fundamental pattern, with limited upside potential in the short - term due to recent position - reduction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, 2026, SP2701 was 5528 yuan/ton, down 0.14% day - on - day and up 0.25% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5264 yuan/ton, down 0.30% day - on - day and week - on - week; SP2605 was 5182 yuan/ton, down 0.38% day - on - day and 0.12% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 30, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In March 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 4.23% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, up 3.33% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 4.19% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 5073 yuan/ton, up 3.30% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Supply - side Data - **Import Volume**: In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, down 30.86% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 147.13 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp in March 2026 (as of March 26) was 26.2 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. - **Supply Information**: In March, Chile's Arauco Company adjusted its wood pulp quotes, with coniferous pulp at 680 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5]. Demand - side Data - **Finished Paper Production**: In March 2026 (as of March 26), the production of offset paper was 21.60 tons, coated paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with stable finished paper prices and increased production this week. Price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5]. Inventory - side Data - **Port Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase. The pulp inventory at the main ports has shown a trend of accumulation, turning from two consecutive weeks of de - stocking to stocking [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory in the futures delivery warehouse was 18.6 tons [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The paper product prices are on the rise, with significant price increases observed in boxboard, corrugated paper, and whiteboard paper, while specialty paper prices have seen a notable increase of 500 CNY/ton [2][4] - The pulp market is experiencing a divergence in price and volume, with domestic prices for bleached kraft pulp and bleached hardwood pulp showing slight increases, while international pulp prices are mixed [2][15] - The industry is accelerating its high-end transformation, with significant capacity expansion in high-end paper production in Beihai, Guangxi, indicating a trend towards high-end, integrated, and green development [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of price elasticity and industrial clusters, suggesting a focus on companies with strong price increase expectations in packaging and specialty paper, as well as those with integrated forest-pulp-paper advantages [2][31] Summary by Sections Industry News - Beihai has established a high-end paper industry with 26 production lines and an annual capacity exceeding 10.19 million tons, contributing to local economic development [3] Price Trends - The average price of boxboard is 4650 CNY/ton, corrugated paper is 3580 CNY/ton, and whiteboard paper is 3558 CNY/ton, with the latter showing a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton [20] Company Developments - Multiple companies, including Sun Paper and Wuzhou Specialty Paper, have announced price increases for their specialty paper products due to rising operational costs [4][7] - The report highlights the ongoing construction of a 20,000-ton specialty paper project by Tengzhou Jinhong Specialty Paper [26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant price increases and stable costs, particularly in the specialty and packaging paper sectors, while monitoring the price trends of pulp and the release of production capacity [31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The paper product prices are on the rise, with significant price increases observed in various categories such as boxboard, corrugated paper, and specialty paper, indicating a strong recovery in industry profitability [2][4] - The pulp market is experiencing a divergence in price trends, with domestic prices for bleached kraft pulp and bleached hardwood pulp increasing, while international prices show mixed results, leading to a relatively stable cost environment for paper companies [2][15] - The industry is accelerating its transition towards high-end, integrated, and green production, with significant capacity expansions in regions like Beihai and Guangxi, enhancing competitive advantages for leading enterprises [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of price elasticity and industrial clusters, recommending a focus on leading companies in packaging and specialty paper with strong price increase expectations, as well as those benefiting from integrated supply chains [2][31] Summary by Sections Industry News - Beihai's high-end paper industry has achieved a production capacity exceeding 10 million tons, with 26 production lines operational, contributing to local economic growth [3] Price Trends - The prices of various paper products have increased, with boxboard averaging 4650 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY), corrugated paper at 3580 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY), and whiteboard paper at 3558 CNY/ton (up 5 CNY) [20] Company Developments - Major paper companies have announced price increases for specialty papers, with some raising prices by 500 CNY/ton to address rising operational costs [4][7] - Companies like Nanjing Jinlong Paper and Jiangxi Fulmin Paper have also adjusted their prices due to increased raw material costs [7][8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant price increases and stable cost structures, particularly in the specialty and packaging paper sectors, while monitoring the market for signs of demand recovery [31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - Pulp companies are announcing maintenance shutdowns or production cuts, leading to a tightening global wood pulp supply, which supports price increases for pulp [4][18] - Many paper companies are issuing price increase notices due to rising raw material costs, with whiteboard paper prices increasing by 50 CNY/ton and special paper prices rising by 500 CNY/ton [5][22] - The average price of white card paper has slightly declined, but the underlying support for prices remains strong due to rising raw material costs and a firm market stance from paper manufacturers [6][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Pulp companies are implementing maintenance shutdowns, with significant production cuts announced by major players like Suzano and Ahlstrom-Munksjö, contributing to a global tightening of wood pulp supply [4][18] - The average prices for needle and broadleaf pulp have increased, with current prices at 5185.58 CNY/ton and 4572.89 CNY/ton respectively [4][18] Price Tracking - Paper companies are raising prices across various products, including a 50 CNY/ton increase for whiteboard paper and a 200 CNY/ton increase for white card paper [5][22] - The average price of white card paper has decreased from 4269 CNY/ton to 4188 CNY/ton due to increased supply and lower-than-expected demand recovery [6][29] Key Data Tracking - Real estate data shows a 14.4% increase in the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities, indicating potential growth in home-related consumption [39] - Furniture sales in February reached 27.6 billion CNY, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year increase, while exports of furniture and parts surged by 67.9% [51]

Summary of Jiulong Paper Industry Conference Call Company Overview - Jiulong Paper Industry was established in 1995 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006, becoming the world's largest paper producer and a leader in pulp-paper integration [3][4] - The company’s main products include various types of environmentally friendly packaging paper, cultural paper, and high-end all-wood pulp paper, with a total paper production capacity exceeding 25 million tons by FY2025 [3][4] Key Financial Highlights - FY2025 revenue is projected to be CNY 63.24 billion, with corrugated box paper revenue accounting for nearly 90% [2][4] - The net profit per ton is expected to recover to CNY 102, indicating a bottom reversal in profitability [2][4] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% in revenue over the past decade [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a narrowing supply-demand gap, with production capacity utilization currently at 60%-65% [2][8] - The import volume of paper is expected to decline by 15%-20% in 2025 due to reduced marginal impacts from zero tariffs on imported paper [2][10] - The domestic corrugated box paper capacity is projected to reach 87.73 million tons by 2025, with growth rates slowing down significantly [7][9] Capital Expenditure and Profitability - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with significant investments made in pulp-paper integration projects in Guangxi and Hubei [6][18] - As capital expenditures decrease, depreciation and financial costs are expected to decline, driving profitability upward [6][18] Competitive Advantages - Jiulong Paper has diversified its raw material sources, with total fiber capacity expected to reach 10.7 million tons, including 7.9 million tons of wood pulp [2][14] - The company has established significant cost control advantages, particularly in logistics, with transportation costs for wood chips reduced by approximately 50% due to self-built infrastructure [2][15] Product Structure and Market Position - The product structure is shifting from waste paper-based products to wood pulp-based products, enhancing profitability stability [16] - Jiulong Paper holds about 25% market share in the corrugated box paper market and is the leading player in the industry [7][8] Future Outlook - Projected net profit growth rates for FY2026-2028 are 106%, 15%, and 10%, respectively, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2][18] - The company is expected to benefit from a more rational competitive landscape, improving its pricing power and profitability [18] Conclusion - Jiulong Paper is positioned for steady growth with a robust safety margin in its current valuation, making it a favorable investment opportunity [18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Sectors**: The PMI data indicates trends in these sectors - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Changes in export tax policies affecting this sector - **Semiconductor Industry**: Price adjustments by major companies - **Paper and Steel Industries**: Price increases announced by key players - **U.S. Employment and Economic Indicators**: Upcoming reports that may impact market sentiment Core Points and Arguments 1. **PMI Data Release**: The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] 2. **Export Tax Changes for Photovoltaic Products**: Starting April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027. This is expected to pressure export companies and shift the photovoltaic industry towards high-quality development rather than low-cost competition [1] 3. **Semiconductor Price Increases**: Major companies like Texas Instruments, NXP, and Infineon are raising prices on select products starting April 1, with Texas Instruments seeing increases up to 85% and Infonion's mainstream products expected to rise by 5% to 15% [2] 4. **Fuel Surcharge Adjustments**: Domestic airlines are expected to raise fuel surcharges, following the trend set by major carriers [2] 5. **Unlocking of Restricted Shares**: A total of 28 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of nearly 29.3 billion yuan, led by Hongri Da at 10.846 billion yuan [2] 6. **New Stock Issuances**: Three new stocks are set to be issued, including Saiying Electronics and Yuyuan Composites [2] 7. **Price Increases in Passive Components**: Murata has announced price hikes of 15% to 35% for AI server and high-end automotive MLCC products, effective April 1 [2] 8. **Paper Industry Price Increases**: Yueyang Lin Paper and Chenming Paper have announced price increases of 200 yuan per ton for various paper products starting April 1, 2026 [3] 9. **Steel Industry Price Adjustments**: Baosteel, Ansteel, and Benxi Steel are all raising base prices by 200 yuan per ton for multiple steel products in April [3] 10. **Upcoming Financial Reports**: A peak in domestic earnings reports is expected, with several key companies set to announce their financial results [3] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **U.S. Employment Reports**: The U.S. will release the non-farm payroll report for March, with expectations of a rebound to an increase of 55,000 jobs after a surprising decrease in February [4] 2. **G7 Meeting on Strategic Oil Reserves**: Discussions were held regarding the release of strategic oil reserves, which could impact global oil prices [4] 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The U.S. is reportedly preparing for ground operations in Iran, which could have significant geopolitical implications [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the pulp futures market is in a low - level oscillation. The cost side has certain support due to the continuous increase in foreign pulp prices, but the traditional papermaking off - season restricts the upward rebound of the market. The current supply - demand sides are in a continuous game, and it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider a low - buying strategy [7][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 first declined and then rose. The cost side of pulp prices has support due to the continuous increase in foreign offers, but the traditional papermaking off - season leads to downstream inventory digestion and price pressure, resulting in a low - level oscillation [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Expected Tightening of Coniferous Pulp Imports - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In January - February 2026, China imported 6.044 million tons of pulp, with an import amount of $3.48 billion and an average unit price of $575.78/ton. The cumulative import volume and amount decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. Affected by geopolitical factors, the import volume from North America has declined, and imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have increased. Large pulp mills may permanently shut down or reduce production, and the supply of coniferous pulp in 2026 is expected to be significantly tightened [13][14] 3.2.2 Decline in European Port Inventories and Gradual Recovery of Overseas Demand - In February 2026, European chemical pulp consumption was 820,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.42%, and the inventory was 703,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.75%. The inventory days were 26 days, one day less than the same period last year. In January 2026, the total European port inventory decreased by 14.72% month - on - month and 11.34% compared with January 2025. European wood pulp demand may be slowly recovering, and the pulp foreign offers are firm [17] 3.2.3 Continuous Increase in Foreign Offers - The foreign offer of imported hardwood pulp has been rebounding since August 2025 and continued to rise in April 2026. For example, Suzano announced a price increase of $20/ton for eucalyptus hardwood pulp in the Asian market and $50/ton in the European and American markets in April 2026. The foreign offers of hardwood pulp announced in April continued to rise, increasing the subsequent import cost and providing certain support to the pulp price cost side [20][21] 3.2.4 Recovery of Downstream Paper Mill Operating Rates and Increased Import Cost Pressure - The foreign offers of coniferous and hardwood pulp are running strongly, increasing the production cost of downstream paper enterprises. However, the price increase of downstream base paper is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the procurement willingness for high - priced raw materials. As of March 26, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was - 7.57%, up 0.97 percentage points from last week but down 6.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load rates of downstream paper types vary. Overall, downstream paper mills focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with general procurement enthusiasm, and high - price transactions are difficult to increase, dragging down the actual price increase of hardwood pulp [24][25] 3.2.5 Increase in Domestic Main Port Inventories and Still at a High Level - As of March 26, 2026, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.3512 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.42%, turning from a decline to an increase. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, with great pressure to reduce inventory, waiting for demand recovery [28] 3.3 Market Outlook - In terms of imports, in January - February 2026, China's pulp import volume and amount decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. International pulp mills have production reduction plans, and the growth rate of pulp import volume may slow down. The domestic pulp port inventory increased in March 2026, is still at a high level, and has great pressure to reduce inventory. Foreign pulp mills are releasing maintenance news, and downstream paper mills are consuming raw material inventories. The traditional papermaking off - season in April may restrict the upward rebound of the market. The continuous increase in foreign offers provides support to the cost side. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider a low - buying strategy [30][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The weak pattern of the pulp futures fundamentals continues. The upside space for short - term position reduction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures and Spot Prices - On March 26, 2026, for pulp futures, SP2701 had a price of 5492 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.05% and a weekly -环比 of 0.66%; SP2609 was 5242 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.43% and a weekly -环比 of 0.38%; SP2605 was 5156 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.30% and a weekly -环比 of 1.02% [5]. - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 2.97%; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 3.06%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 1.10% [5]. Pulp Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.23%, and its import cost was 5559 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.19%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.33%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.30%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00% [5]. Pulp Supply - side Data - In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 30.86% compared to January; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147.13 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 2.94% [5]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a decrease of 19.80% [5]. - On March 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 26.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. Pulp Inventory - side Data - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase [5]. - The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 18.6 tons [5]. Pulp Demand - side Data - On March 26, 2026, the production of double - offset paper was 21.60 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons [5]. - The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].