投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | | 2025年10月9日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年10月9日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5104 | -0. 74% | -3.63% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5520 | -0. 54% | -2. 30% | | | SP2511 | 4804 | -0.62% | -4.76% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5050 | -0. 98% | -2. 88% | | | SP2505 | 5146 | -0.73% | -3. 13% | | 阔叶浆等更 | 4250 | 0.00% | 0.71% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 720 | -2.78% | | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5884 | -2.75% | | (美元) | 巴 ...

冠豪高新所属申万行业为：轻工制造-造纸-特种纸。所属概念板块包括：小盘、低价、电子发票、可降 解、融资融券等。 截至6月30日，冠豪高新股东户数4.46万，较上期减少2.11%；人均流通股39258股，较上期增加2.16%。 2025年1月-6月，冠豪高新实现营业收入34.03亿元，同比减少1.47%；归母净利润-5792.53万元，同比减 少168.35%。 分红方面，冠豪高新A股上市后累计派现11.43亿元。近三年，累计派现5.67亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，冠豪高新十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股1240.43万股，相比上期减少112.80万股。 10月10日，冠豪高新盘中上涨2.18%，截至10:36，报3.28元/股，成交4384.97万元，换手率0.77%，总市 值57.41亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1.95万元，特大单买入249.79万元，占比5.70%，卖出143.56万元，占比 3.27%；大单买入808.26万元，占比18.43%，卖出912.55万元，占比20.81%。 冠豪高新今年以来股价涨5.47%，近5个交易日涨2.50% ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C == 体张告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者扬胜的投资目标。 免 责 影影《剧需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，很比投资，责任自负。本报告仅向待定客户推进，未经画贸期货授权许可，任何引用，转载以及向 UH 第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll C 国贸期货 LET 500 FR 2 1 2 1 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要】 影教据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5142 | -0 ...

玖龙纸业 20251006 摘要 九龙纸业销量保持强劲，7 月和 8 月销量均超 200 万吨，库存维持低位， 四季度旺季停机影响有限，行业协会引导价格竞争转向质量竞争，利好 龙头企业。 成品纸价格涨幅开始超过废纸价格，符合传统旺季的良性表现，预计成 品纸和废纸价格将同步上涨，但成品纸价格涨幅更大，公司整体盈利状 况基本保持稳定。 文化用纸市场承压，吨盈利下降，新增产能投放和经济复苏缓慢带来挑 战。九龙纸业通过增加出口订单缓解压力，但 2025 年底盈利仍可能受 压。 白卡纸业务已实现盈亏平衡，受益于新增产能投放，预计整体产能将超 过 300 万吨。市场价格和盈利水平已触底，未来国家消费和经济复苏将 带动市场好转。 2025 年上半年盈利增长主要归功于木浆业务发展，产量集中释放且稳 定性提高，北海和湖北基地贡献显著，同时受益于木片和木炭价格下降。 北海和湖北基地将在 2025 年下半年继续产能爬坡，盈利示范将在 FY26 财年体现，浆纸一体化基地将成为集团未来重要的盈利增长点。 公司制浆平均成本不到 3,000 元/吨，计划 2026 年不再外购木浆，木纤 维产能提升显著降低成本，卡纸类和瓦楞纸类产品吨盈利水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that met expectations, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating strong operational performance and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 63.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% - Net profit was 2.202 billion yuan, up 177.3% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.767 billion yuan, an increase of 135.4% after deducting approximately 400 million yuan in perpetual bond interest - Sales volume for FY25 was 21.5 million tons, a growth of 9.6% [1]. Segment Performance - In FY25, revenue from various paper products was as follows: - Corrugated paper: 33.344 billion yuan (+9.1%) - Grey bottom white paper: 6.901 billion yuan (-15.3%) - White card paper: 3.723 billion yuan (+51.2%) - Cultural paper: 5.408 billion yuan (+30.8%) - The share of cultural paper and white card paper has significantly increased, benefiting from favorable competition dynamics [3]. Production Capacity and Raw Material Advantage - As of FY25, the company had 4.73 million tons of wood pulp capacity, with plans to increase this to 7.43 million tons by FY27 - The self-produced wood pulp provides a significant cost advantage compared to external sourcing, contributing positively to FY25H2 profitability [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The demand for corrugated paper is expected to improve due to a gradual recovery in downstream demand and a slowdown in new capacity from leading manufacturers - The pricing for corrugated paper and other products has shown signs of stabilization and potential upward movement, driven by supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for FY26-27 to 3.117 billion yuan and 3.759 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory - The projected PE ratios for FY26-28 are 7.9, 6.5, and 5.5, indicating attractive valuation levels [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability due to product structure upgrades and a successful integration of pulp and paper operations. The FY2025 results met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 177.3% [5][7] - The company has a strong production capacity of over 20 million tons in paper manufacturing, which provides significant scale advantages and upward elasticity in performance [7] - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 3.117 billion RMB for FY2026 and 4.425 billion RMB for FY2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.4% and 17.7% respectively [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2024 revenue is projected at 59.496 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, while FY2025 revenue is expected to reach 63.241 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase. The net profit for FY2025 is forecasted at 1.767 billion RMB, a 135% increase year-on-year [6][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.16 RMB in FY2024 to 0.38 RMB in FY2025, with a net asset return rate increasing from 1.66% to 3.74% [6][7] - The company’s market-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 32.7 in FY2024 to 13.9 in FY2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [6][7] Product and Market Dynamics - The company has diversified its product offerings, increasing the production capacity of cultural paper and white card paper, which are expected to account for 12% of total production capacity by FY2026 [7] - The company has seen a significant increase in gross profit per ton of paper, with FY2025 figures showing a gross profit of 337 RMB per ton, up from previous years [7] - The market dynamics for boxboard and corrugated paper are improving, with expected demand growth and a reduction in supply pressure from imports, which will benefit the company's performance [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [9][19]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 177.3% [9]. - The integration of pulp and paper production and the diversification of paper types have led to notable improvements in profitability [9]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in raw materials, with a projected increase in self-produced pulp capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability further [9]. - The company’s product structure is gradually improving, with a focus on high-end products, which is anticipated to benefit from industry demand recovery [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2025 revenue is projected at 63.241 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% for FY2026 and 10% for FY2027 [8]. - The net profit for FY2025 is expected to reach 1.767 billion RMB, with significant growth projected for the following years, reaching 4.425 billion RMB by FY2028 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.38 RMB in FY2025 to 0.94 RMB in FY2028 [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.74% in FY2025 to 7.64% in FY2028 [8].

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY26-27净利润预测，分别增加11%和15%至27.5亿和28.8亿元，维持跑赢行业评级，并将目标价上调17%至7港元 [1] Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 632.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit of 17.67 billion, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In 2HFY25, net profit was 12.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, driven by self-produced pulp benefits and reduced coal prices [1] Production and Sales - FY25 total sales volume was 21.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with core growth in牛卡纸 (110,000 tons), 白卡纸 (50,000 tons), and 文化纸 (40,000 tons) [1] - In 1HFY26, the company has launched 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with plans for an additional 350,000 tons of cultural paper [2] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits of 59 yuan/ton and 151 yuan/ton for 1HFY25 and 2HFY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising waste paper prices [3] - The company anticipates a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but expects a small recovery in profits for box board and corrugated paper from July to September [3] Capital Expenditure - FY25 capital expenditure was 14.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion, which is higher than previous guidance [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit estimates for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689) for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15% to 2.75 billion and 2.88 billion HKD respectively, maintaining an outperform rating and increasing the target price by 17% to 7 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY25, the company achieved revenue of 63.241 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion HKD, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.297 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and reduced coal prices [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company reported total sales of 21.5 million tons for FY25, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with significant contributions from the production of corrugated paper, white card paper, and cultural paper [2] - The company has already launched 1.2 million tons of white card paper, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp in the first half of FY26, with plans for additional production [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 HKD and 151 HKD for the first and second halves of FY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising prices of recycled paper [3] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in profits for corrugated paper from July to September, despite potential increases in costs due to rising coal and recycled paper prices [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion HKD, which is higher than previous guidance [4]

FY25 业绩符合公司前期预告，符合我们和市场预期公司发布FY25 业绩：FY25 实现收入632.41 亿元， 同比+6.3%，扣除永续债~4 亿元利息，归母净利润为17.67 亿元，符合公司前期预告区间。其中， 2HFY25 实现归母净利润12.97 亿元，环比+176%，主因自制浆红利释放及煤价下跌带来的成本改善， 符合我们和市场预期。 我们预期FY26 仍有增量。公司公告FY25 总销量2,150 万吨，同比+10%，核心增量在牛卡纸（同比+110 万吨）、白卡纸（+50万吨）、文化纸（+40 万吨），公司新增产销量呈两点变化：一在箱板瓦楞纸领 域，公司不同于过去扩产提份额逻辑，当前公司优化产品结构，提升高端牛卡占比；二在于公司近几年 核心扩产重心在浆、及配套浆纸产品。 机构：中金公司 研究员：徐贇妍/陈彦/楼兰 业绩回顾 发展趋势 公司披露1HFY26 已投产120 万吨白卡纸、35 万吨文化纸、70万吨化机浆，并拟投产另一条35 万吨文化 纸，我们预估FY26 公司造纸产销量同比增5%+；此外公司披露1HFY27 拟新增投放70 万吨化学浆（重 庆）、50 万吨化学浆（天津），我们看好公司在逐渐健 ...