华安证券研报数据显示，2025年以来，中国白卡纸行业供需缺口由1月份的308.97千吨下降至9月份的255.68千吨，呈现出 明显的收窄态势。同时，白卡纸库存在长时间处于高位后也迎来下降，去库存效果显现。 整体来看，新一轮价格上涨不仅由纸厂主动拉涨驱动，更得益于成本支撑、库存下降、新增产能投放延后以及包装纸行业 整体回暖等多重因素的共同推动。 从成本端来看，进口木浆市场可外售货源有限，国产浆及外盘价格同步上行，预计后续仍有涨价空间。在此背景下，纸厂 为改善盈利，继续推动价格上移。 另外，在近期行业"反内卷"的自律调整中，供给端正迎来积极变化。行业消息显示，原计划于10月份投产的120万吨白卡 纸新增产能有所推迟，目前仅有少量B级产品释放，正式出纸时间尚未明确。孔祥芬表示，新产能投放节奏的放缓，也减轻了 市场对供应过剩的担忧，进一步巩固了纸厂的拉涨信心，同时叠加9月份以来企业库存的持续下降，为纸价拉涨提供了保障。 本报记者 王僖 近期，国内多家知名浆纸企业密集发布产品调价通知，涉及白卡纸、铜版卡、食品卡、再生牛卡纸、高强瓦楞纸等多个纸 种，调价幅度在50元/吨至200元/吨区间，执行时间主要集中在2025年11 ...

从全国市场均价来看，据卓创资讯数据显示，11月21日白卡纸市场价格4214元/吨，较上月底上涨 2.48%，较8月中下旬年内低点3930元/吨上涨7.23%。国内白卡纸市场也在十月底迎来新一轮集中调价， 博汇纸业、玖龙纸业和万国纸业等多家纸企相继发布涨价函，宣布自2025年11月1日起，旗下白卡纸产 品价格统一上调200元/吨。在经历了长达五年的历史性低迷后，白卡纸行业触底反升。 华安证券主要观点如下： 供给与需求双双上升，供需缺口逐步收窄 近两年，中国白卡纸月度产量与月度消费量均呈现波动上升态势。其中白卡纸月度产量由2023年1月的 689.4千吨上升至2025年10月的1076.2吨，白卡纸月度消费量由2023年1月的540.37千吨上升至2025年9月 的809.42千吨。2024年，白卡纸新增120万吨产能，2025年将继续保持扩张趋势，据卓创资讯统计， 2025年白卡纸市场预计新增产能将在330万吨左右。但由于需求增长相对乏力，中国白卡纸行业一直面 临着较为严重的产能过剩问题，近两年过剩的供需缺口一度达到2024年2月的367.7千吨，这也一度影响 白卡纸价格持续低迷走势与整体行业的健康发展。 20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

4 纸浆成本利润 5 纸浆价格与价差 2 0 2 5 . 1 1 . 2 4 纸浆周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 CONTENTS 1 纸浆综述 目 2 纸浆平衡表解析 录 3 纸浆供需解析 能化分析师：高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 数据来源：隆众资讯，中泰期货整理 Part 1 纸浆综述 1.1 纸浆综述——供给端 | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | 环比 | 累计同比 | 预估下周/月 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | | | (根据三方数据线性预估) | | | 国产 | 阔叶浆产量 | 万吨 | 23.00 | 22.90 | 0.10 | -0.87% | 持稳 | | | （周） | | | | | | | | | | | 化机浆产量 | 万吨 | 23.70 | 23.60 | 0.10 | | | | ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/11/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.07%报 4062.8 美元/盎 司，本周累计下跌 0.77%；COMEX 白银期货跌 1.27%报 49.66 美元/盎司，本周累 计下跌 2.02%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 1.73%， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pulp futures market has shown a recovery since November, with prices rising over 9% from a low of 5042 yuan/ton to above 5550 yuan/ton, driven by seasonal demand and cautious purchasing behavior from paper mills [1] - UPM and Metsa reported losses in their paper businesses for the first half of the year, while Sodra's pulp business faced an operating loss of 220 million Swedish Krona in Q2, reflecting a general downturn in the pulp and paper industry [1] - The supply-demand balance for pulp is currently weak, with cautious purchasing from paper mills leading to low inventory levels, which may trigger a replenishment cycle if demand improves [1] Group 2 - The downstream paper market shows mixed signals, with white card paper prices stabilizing and recovering to May levels after a decline during the third quarter, supported by price increases from leading paper companies [2] - The demand for consumer paper remains stable, with a notable increase in exports of consumer paper by 20% to 30%, which is expected to maintain overall demand confidence in the last two months of the year [2] - The cultural paper segment, particularly double glue paper, faces challenges from digital alternatives, declining birth rates, and reduced demand for traditional print media, leading to a subdued market outlook [2][3] Group 3 - The current downturn in double glue paper is attributed to issues on the supply, inventory, and profit fronts, with a total inventory of 1.8813 million tons, marking a 7.66% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite plans from several paper companies to raise double glue paper prices by 200 yuan/ton, the price increase is driven by profit pressure rather than actual demand improvement, making it difficult for downstream acceptance [3] - Overall, while the pulp demand outlook remains optimistic with the start of the double glue paper bidding season, supply pressures persist, and overseas production cuts have not significantly impacted the market [3]

11月17日，顺灏股份跌2.51%，成交额3.10亿元。两融数据显示，当日顺灏股份获融资买入额3131.06万 元，融资偿还3613.86万元，融资净买入-482.80万元。截至11月17日，顺灏股份融资融券余额合计6.91 亿元。 截至9月30日，顺灏股份股东户数4.39万，较上期减少4.61%；人均流通股24123股，较上期增加4.83%。 2025年1月-9月，顺灏股份实现营业收入8.99亿元，同比减少20.57%；归母净利润6731.90万元，同比增 长20.29%。 分红方面，顺灏股份A股上市后累计派现4.27亿元。近三年，累计派现6881.28万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融资方面，顺灏股份当日融资买入3131.06万元。当前融资余额6.91亿元，占流通市值的8.82%，融资余 额超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 融券方面，顺灏股份11月17日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00 元；融券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，上海顺灏新材料科技股份有限公司位于上海市普陀区真陈路200号，成立日期2004年12月 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of pulp is bearish as Chile's Arauco company's import quotes show a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp, and China's pulp production in October 2025 rose by 10.2% month - on - month [4] - The demand is neutral to bullish as the production of major wood - pulp papers is basically stable, the price of white cardboard has increased significantly with a de - stocking trend, and other paper types remain stable [4] - The inventory is bearish as of November 13, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory reached 211.0 tons, up 5.1% month - on - month after a narrow de - stocking last period [4] - The investment view is to wait and see. The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit, and there is limited room for further increase. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy can be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company's October quotes show softwood pulp decline and hardwood pulp increase. China's pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 tons, up 10.2% month - on - month, indicating a relatively loose supply [4] - **Demand**: Major wood - pulp paper production is stable, white cardboard price rises with de - stocking trend, and other paper types are stable [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port inventory is 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase, changing from de - stocking to high - level inventory accumulation [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit with limited upside. Close the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy. For single - side trading, focus on old and new warehouse receipt situations; no specific arbitrage strategy is provided [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Hardwood pulp spot prices rose significantly, and deliverable softwood pulp maintained a positive basis. The pulp futures price has exceeded the import cost of deliverable softwood pulp, limiting further increase and increasing the probability of warehouse receipt registration [8] - **Spot Price**: Softwood pulp silver star price is 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; softwood pulp cloth needle price is 4980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp goldfish price is 4400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - **External Quotes**: In October, Chile's Arauco company's softwood pulp silver star quote was 680 dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp star quote was 540 dollars/ton [20] - **Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the total pulp futures contract position was 345935, up 1.37% from last week; the main contract position was 173670 hands, up 1.10% from last week [25] PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, pulp and wood chip imports increased. In October, total pulp imports were 295.20 tons, up 11.27% year - on - year; softwood pulp imports were 69.10 tons, up 12.54% year - on - year; hardwood pulp imports were 135.60 tons, up 7.79% year - on - year [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port pulp inventory was 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased, with 46 days at the end of September [4][41] - **Downstream Demand**: In October 2025, paper product production increased month - on - month. Double - offset paper production was 76.46 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month; copperplate paper production was 39.42 tons, up 2.4% month - on - month; household paper production was 86.06 tons, up 0.9% month - on - month; white cardboard production was 107.62 tons, up 1% month - on - month [49] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of November 13, 2025, total double - offset paper inventory was 189.93 tons, up 0.38% week - on - week. Production was 20.88 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week. Production cost was 4988 yuan/ton, up 1.7% week - on - week, and gross profit was - 345 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [63][67][71] - **Overseas Demand**: In October 2025, European softwood pulp inventory days were 26, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp inventory days were 27, down 1 day month - on - month. As of August 2025, US paper product capacity utilization was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down 0.04 month - on - month [74] PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shandong Russian needle basis was - 500 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week; the Shandong silver star basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week. The 12 - 1 month spread was - 566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week [83] - **Import Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, softwood pulp import profit was 57 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp import profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week [87]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for bleached softwood kraft pulp in 2026, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian softwood pulp and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 13, 2025, SP2601 was 5534 with a daily increase of 0.95% and a weekly increase of 3.09%; SP2511 was 4906 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a weekly increase of 0.41%; SP2605 was 5502 with a daily increase of 0.44% and a weekly increase of 2.19% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [5]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In US dollars, Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 million tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 million tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper: double - offset paper was 20.90 million tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 million tons, tissue paper was 28.48 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 million tons [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 13, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 494 with a quantile level of 0.951; the Silver Star basis was 644 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The papermaking market has a pattern of oversupply and weak rebound. The pulp market has stable imports, a slight increase in domestic pulp production, and high inventory, with weak downstream demand. The double - offset paper market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and its valuation is weakly stable. The copper - plate paper market has a low gross profit margin and a slight increase in inventory. The domestic pulp market has a slight increase in production and a narrow decline in inventory, while the demand side of pulp in various paper products remains weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Pulp: Imports are stable, domestic pulp production increases slightly, inventory is at a relatively high level after a narrow decline (down 2.6% to 2.008 million tons), and downstream demand in areas such as tissue paper and cultural paper is weak, showing an oversupply pattern [4]. - Double - offset paper: The weekly capacity utilization rate slightly decreases (53.4%, - 0.4%), but the production increases slightly (208,000 tons, + 1.0%) due to new sample production lines at the beginning of the month. Demand is weak with sporadic publishing tenders and dull social orders [4]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - Pulp: There is a supply - demand mismatch and high inventory. The supply side has no contraction pressure, and the demand side is weak, so the oversupply pattern continues, and it is more affected by inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand changes [4]. - Double - offset paper: The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The previous profit pressure restricts the upward space of valuation, and it is expected to be weakly stable until demand or supply changes [4]. 3.1.3 Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for SP2601; if port inventory falls below 2 million tons and the basis strengthens, increase long positions. Short OP2601 based on the actual spot transaction price [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4]. - Options: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4400 for OP options [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Double - offset paper supply: Production increases slightly to 208,000 tons (+ 1.0%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 53.4% (- 0.4%). The profit is under pressure, with an average cost of 4,902 yuan/ton (up 6.4 yuan/ton) and an average weekly profit of - 259.1 yuan/ton [8]. - Double - offset paper inventory: Production enterprise inventory is 1.355 million tons (up 0.9% month - on - month), and the on - site inventory rebounds slightly and is at a multi - year high [12]. - Copper - plate paper supply: Production decreases slightly to 85,000 tons (- 1.2%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 63.1% (- 0.5%), and the gross profit margin is still low [15]. - Copper - plate paper inventory: Production enterprise inventory is 376,000 tons (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the on - site inventory rebounds slightly [20]. - Domestic pulp supply: The production of broad - leaf pulp increases to 250,000 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp remains unchanged at 235,000 tons. The production profit of broad - leaf pulp rebounds slightly [24]. - Wood pulp supply: The port inventory decreases to 2.008 million tons (down 2.6% month - on - month), and the chemimechanical pulp production profit remains stable, but the market is in a stalemate [27]. - Pulp demand - tissue paper: Demand is weak and there is no new increase. The average price of tissue paper remains stable at 5,883 yuan/ton, with a light trading atmosphere and slow inventory reduction [31]. - Pulp demand - white cardboard: Production decreases to 357,000 tons (- 1.11%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 78.98% (- 0.89 percentage points), and the factory inventory decreases to 1.07 million tons (- 0.93%) [34]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Double - offset paper price: The average enterprise price of 70g double - offset paper is stable at 4,642.9 yuan/ton [41]. - Copper - plate paper price: The average enterprise price of 157g copper - plate paper is stable at 4,975 yuan/ton [41]. - Pulp prices: The average spot tax - included price of imported softwood pulp is 5,424 yuan/ton (+ 0.3%); the average price of hardwood pulp is 4,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the average price of kraft pulp is 5,079 yuan/ton (+ 1.6%); the average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [47][48].