上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.35 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8608.71 | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.35 | | --- | --- | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8608.71 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.97/2.68 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 391.80 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 4,692.22 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8833 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -15% 85% 185% 285% HSCEI 玖龙纸业 相关研究 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 联系人 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 0 ...

上 市 公 司 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 03-03 04-03 05-03 06-03 07-03 08-03 09-03 10-03 11-03 12-03 01-03 02-03 03-03 太阳纸业 沪深300指数 (收益率) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 16.95 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.68/13.10 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.36 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 47,077 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,122.68/14,022.39 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.79 | | 资产负债率% | 47.67 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,795/2,777 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | ...

机构：中金公司 资本开支略上调；资产负债率五年来首次下滑。公司公告已无造纸产能投放，仅剩四条浆线（250 万吨 化学浆，新增一条东莞50万吨拟27Q3 落地），投产地点为天津、重庆、北海、东莞，天津、东莞是传 统箱板瓦楞纸基地，我们认为公司此举或通过增加本色浆优化箱板纸结构，放大传统黑纸系盈利优势。 我们预计公司剩余资本开支100 亿元内，于27Q3 收尾，公司略上调FY26资本开支至125 亿元（前期指 引110 亿元）。截至1HFY26，公司资产负债率64.7%，同比-1ppt，为过去五年首次下滑；经营现金流、 资本开支、自由现金流为33 亿元（同比下滑，主要是应收增多）、52 亿元、-19 亿元。 黑纸：箱板瓦楞纸平稳复苏。我们估算期间吨纸净利约100 元。 往前看，我们认为2026 年行业供给基本收尾、需求平稳增长，我们看好板块周期筑底、迎来供需面平 稳修复行情，近期玖龙各大基地均发布春节后50 元/吨提价函，公司作为国内最大的箱板瓦楞纸龙头 （市占率25%左右），业绩受益板块修复弹性明显。 研究员：徐贇妍/陈彦/楼兰 业绩回顾 1HFY26 业绩符合前期预告和我们预期 公司公告1HFY26 业绩：实 ...

公司公告1HFY26业绩：实现净利润22.1亿元，扣除永续债利息后归母净利润19.7亿元，同比+319%，符 合前期预告区间。 吨净利明显改善，主要在自制浆上量 公司公告期间销量约1,240万吨(同比+100万吨，核心在白卡纸+50万吨、文化纸+30万吨);吨纸净利约160 元/吨，同比+120元/吨，该行认为增量核心在自制浆产量爬坡。 中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆成本红利渐释放，上调FY26-27e净利润10%、12%至 40、45亿元，对应FY26-27P/B0.7x、0.6x;由于板块周期略修复，该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调目标价 33%至12港币，对应FY26-27P/B0.9x、0.8x，隐含31%上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1HFY26业绩符合前期预告和该行预期 白纸：自制浆产量及吨净利或超预期 该行预计1HFY26纸浆产量在200万吨以上，是此次业绩超预期的核心增量;从纸种拆分来看，考虑到公 司自制浆自供率接近100%，该行认为公司相比同行的超额利润进一步放大，该行预计白纸(会计核算计 入纸浆)平均吨净利在300元以上。 风险提示：需求不及预期;浆价大幅波动;资本开支超预 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆成本红利渐释放，上调FY26-27e 净利润10%、12%至40、45亿元，对应FY26-27 P/B 0.7x、0.6x;由于板块周期略修复，该行维持跑赢行 业评级，上调目标价33%至12港币，对应FY26-27 P/B 0.9x、0.8x，隐含31%上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1HFY26业绩符合前期预告和该行预期 公司公告1HFY26业绩：实现净利润22.1亿元，扣除永续债利息后归母净利润19.7亿元，同比+319%，符 合前期预告区间。 吨净利明显改善，主要在自制浆上量 公司公告期间销量约1,240万吨(同比+100万吨，核心在白卡纸+50万吨、文化纸+30万吨);吨纸净利约160 元/吨，同比+120元/吨，该行认为增量核心在自制浆产量爬坡。 资本开支略上调;资产负债率五年来首次下滑 公司公告已无造纸产能投放，仅剩四条浆线(250万吨化学浆，新增一条东莞50万吨拟27Q3落地)，投产 地点为天津、重庆、北海、东莞，天津、东莞是传统箱板瓦楞纸基地，该行认为公司此举或通过增加本 色浆优化箱板纸结构，放大传统黑纸系盈利优势。该行预计 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home furnishing and paper industries, with specific recommendations for companies with high dividend safety margins and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, and companies like Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein are highlighted for their strong dividend safety margins [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in boxboard prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are recognized for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new business areas such as overseas expansion and smart lighting present growth opportunities [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support the demand side, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of industry consolidation since 2025, with mid-tier companies exiting the market and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [6][16]. - Companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [5][6]. Paper Industry - The report notes that boxboard prices are stable in the short term, with an anticipated improvement in the supply-demand structure that could enhance profitability in the mid-term. Companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for their strong positions [3][5]. - The report suggests monitoring the potential impact of anti-involution policies and demand changes, which could contribute to cyclical elasticity in the paper sector [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and significant cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][8]. Bull Group - The Bull Group is expected to see steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment. The company is also expanding into new areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy, which are anticipated to drive growth [10][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages in product, channel, and supply chain management, which are expected to support stable growth in 2026 [10][11]. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care growth stocks. Companies like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou are noted for their potential in the market [13][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi coming online. This has resulted in a rapid reduction in pulping costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance beyond expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit increments due to its self-produced pulp advantage. By FY25, the company’s production capacity for white card and cultural paper is expected to reach 1.8 million and 2.27 million tons, respectively, with further expansions planned for FY26H1 [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus remains on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials, with additional production capacity planned for FY26 and FY27. This ongoing expansion is expected to further enhance the company's profitability [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY26-FY28 are 72.67 billion, 73.99 billion, and 74.76 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. The attributable net profit is forecasted to be 4.08 billion, 4.41 billion, and 5.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 131%, 8%, and 14%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 times [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi contributing to a rapid reduction in production costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance above expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit growth due to its self-produced pulp advantages [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials is expected to further enhance profitability. The company has plans to build additional chemical pulp production facilities in Chongqing and Tianjin, with expected production increases in the coming years [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 72.67 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 74.76 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 2%, and 1%. The attributable net profit is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 5.04 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 131%, 8%, and 14%. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast indicating significant profit growth for FY26H1 [1] Company Summary - The company expects a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 315% to 337% [1] - The significant profit growth is primarily driven by the effective integration of pulp and paper production, with a total pulp capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1 [1] - An additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp is expected to be put into production in FY27, enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of pulp and providing substantial cost advantages [1] Industry Summary - Since the second half of 2025, prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded from their lows, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton [1] - The price of white card paper has risen by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton since the end of August [1] - The company benefits from a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, allowing it to take full advantage of the improving supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] - Although cultural paper prices have declined, the company maintains stable profitability due to its pulp and paper integration advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has announced a positive earnings forecast, with significant profit growth expected for FY26H1, driven by integrated pulp and paper operations and improved market conditions [1] Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315% to 337% [1] Industry Dynamics - The company benefits from significant cost advantages due to an increase in self-sufficiency in wood pulp, with a production capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1, and an additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp expected to be operational in FY27 [1] - Prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded since H2 2025, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton, and white card paper prices rising by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton [1] - The company has a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, positioning it well to benefit from improvements in industry supply and demand [1] - Despite a decline in cultural paper prices, the company's profitability remains stable due to the advantages of its integrated pulp and paper operations [1]