315.2%-336.5%，环比增长50.3%-58.0%，盈利增长主要得益于产品销售量增加及销售价格上升，及原材 料成本下降而导致毛利润大幅增加，主要利润贡献来源于浆。 增量利润贡献主要来自湖北与北海基地浆纸一体化产能。FY25H1北海基地110 万吨化学浆、60 万吨化 机浆投产；FY25H2&26H1 新增产能包括湖北65 万吨化学浆、70 万吨化机浆、120 万吨白卡纸，广西70 万吨文化纸（pm56、pm55），北海基地FY24/25 新投产能陆续爬坡。 展望FY26H2，我们认为阔叶浆短期有望进一步提涨并维持高位，文化及白卡纸价及吨盈利均处于历史 低位，有望进一步顺价，浆纸一体化利润持续释放。 我们认为浆纸一体化产能盈利能力突出为主要超预期点，FY26H2及FY27 浆纸产能还将有投产及爬 坡，叠加箱板瓦楞纸盈利改善，持续重点推荐。 机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：刘佳昆/毛宇翔 本报告导读： 玖龙业绩再超预期，FY26H1 预计盈利19.5-20.5 亿元，浆纸一体化驱动公司价值重构 投资要点： 投资建议：考虑公司经营近况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计公司FY2026-2028 年EPS 为0.85/ ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：徐贇妍/陈彦/楼兰 1HFY26 归母净利润超出我们及市场预期 看好公司FY26 财务质量迎来修复。根据公司公告，公司目前仅剩余三条合计200 万吨化学浆拟于4Q26- 1Q27 投产，投产地点分别为天津、重庆及广西北海，我们认为天津及重庆基地主要为传统箱板瓦楞 纸，公司此举或通过增加本色浆纤维优化箱板纸结构，放大传统黑纸系盈利优势。此外，公司指引 FY26 资本开支在110 亿元左右（FY23-25 年资本开支分别在177 亿元、128 亿元、148 亿元），已处于 本轮资本开支收尾年份，伴随公司利润、现金流改善，我们看好公司FY26 财报质量迎来修复起点。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到公司自制浆产量及吨利润超预期，我们上调FY26-27e净利润32%、39%至36 亿元、40 亿元，对 应FY26-27 P/B为0.6x、0.5x；我们维持跑赢行业评级，上调目标价29%至9 港币，目标价对应FY26-27 P/B 0.7x、0.6x，隐含21%上行空间。 风险 需求不及预期；浆价大幅波动；资本开支超预期；负债率过高。 公司公告1HFY26 业绩预告：实现盈利21.5-22.5 亿元，扣除 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持玖龙纸业(02689)"增持"评级，考虑公司经营近况， 预计公司FY2026-2028年EPS为0.85/0.94/1.03元(原FY2026-2027年EPS为0.48/0.52元)，参考行业估值水 平，给予公司FY2026年25xPE，目标价为23.1港元(汇率为1港币兑0.92人民币)。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： FY26H2展望 展望FY26H2，该行认为阔叶浆短期有望进一步提涨并维持高位，文化及白卡纸价及吨盈利均处于历史 低位，有望进一步顺价，浆纸一体化利润持续释放。该行认为浆纸一体化产能盈利能力突出为主要超预 期点，FY26H2及FY27浆纸产能还将有投产及爬坡，叠加箱板瓦楞纸盈利改善，持续重点推荐。 玖龙纸业FY26H1剔除永续资本证券应占盈利2亿元后，预计盈利19.5-20.5亿元，同比增长 315.2%-336.5%，环比增长50.3%-58.0%，盈利增长主要得益于产品销售量增加及销售价格上升，及原材 料成本下降而导致毛利润大幅增加，主要利润贡献来源于浆。 增量利润贡献主要来自湖北与北海基地浆纸一体化产能 FY25H1北海基地110万吨化学 ...

增量利润贡献主要来自湖北与北海基地浆纸一体化产能 国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持玖龙纸业(02689)"增持"评级，考虑公司经营近况，预计公司FY2026- 2028年EPS为0.85/0.94/1.03元(原FY2026-2027年EPS为0.48/0.52元)，参考行业估值水平，给予公司 FY2026年25xPE，目标价为23.1港元(汇率为1港币兑0.92人民币)。 风险提示 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 下游需求修复不及预期、原材料价格大幅上涨。 FY26H1经营状况 玖龙纸业FY26H1剔除永续资本证券应占盈利2亿元后，预计盈利19.5-20.5亿元，同比增长 315.2%-336.5%，环比增长50.3%-58.0%，盈利增长主要得益于产品销售量增加及销售价格上升，及原材 料成本下降而导致毛利润大幅增加，主要利润贡献来源于浆。 FY25H1北海基地110万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆投产;FY25H2&26H1新增产能包括湖北65万吨化学浆、 70万吨化机浆、120万吨白卡纸，广西70万吨文化纸(pm56、pm55)，北海基地FY24/25新投产能陆续爬 坡。 FY26H2展望 展望FY26H2，该行认为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆产量及吨利润超预期，上调FY26- 27e净利润32%、39%至36亿元、40亿元，对应FY26-27 P/B为0.6x、0.5x;该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调 目标价29%至9港元，目标价对应FY26-27 P/B 0.7x、0.6x，隐含21%上行空间。 2025年下半年，由于废纸价格提涨、行业步入传统旺季，箱板瓦楞纸大幅提涨，该行判断吨纸利润平稳 修复，预计吨净利在100元上下。往前看，该行认为2026年行业供给基本收尾，确定性较高仅4Q26太阳 纸业60万吨产能(占行业销量低于1%)，需求则平稳增长，该行看好板块周期筑底、后续迎来供需面修复 行情;玖龙是国内最大的箱板瓦楞纸龙头(市占率25%左右)，业绩受益板块修复弹性明显。 白纸：自制浆产量及吨净利或超预期 公司披露FY25纸浆产量300万吨，考虑到新增浆线投产爬坡，该行预计1HFY26纸浆产量在200万吨以 上，是此次业绩超预期的核心增量;从纸种拆分来看，考虑到公司自制浆自供率接近100%，该行认为公 司相比同行的超额利润正在进一步放大，该行预计白纸(即文化纸、白卡纸，会计核算计入 ...

证券之星 夏峰琳 1月23日晚间，山鹰国际(600567.SH)披露2025年业绩预告，预计全年归属净利润亏损8.5亿至10亿元，扣 非净利润亏损10.5亿至12.0亿元。证券之星注意到，公司扣非净利润已连续第四年录得亏损，且上述两 项利润指标亏损额度均较上年进一步扩大。 在行业深度调整的背景下，山鹰国际不仅面临业绩持续亏损的窘境，还承受债务高企的压力。当行业加 速向上游延伸布局，通过掌控原材料产能构建竞争壁垒。山鹰国际虽也宣布自建木纤维产能，意图实现 高端纤维自主供应、打破木浆原料受制于人的局面，但进度明显滞后于同行。当不少竞品已实现自主供 应、对冲成本波动时，公司相关项目仍处于投入期，尚未形成实际产能。这场寄望于"破局"的转型，能 否真正带领公司走出困境，目前仍充满变数。 扣非净利润将连亏四年，主营持续失血 2025年，造纸行业延续供需宽松格局，箱板瓦楞纸等主要产品价格持续承压，而废纸、木浆等原材料成 本仍处于高位震荡区间，行业整体盈利空间因此受到进一步挤压。 在此背景下，山鹰国际业绩表现疲软。公司公告显示，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润将 亏损8.5亿至10亿元，较2024年4.51亿元的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, with expectations for valuation recovery driven by real estate policy improvements and accelerated industry consolidation [2][4][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. The industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Kuka Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen [2][4][5]. - In the metal packaging sector, price increases for two-piece cans are being implemented, leading to an improvement in industry profitability and a more optimized industry structure due to consolidation among leading companies [2][4][5]. - The AI glasses market is optimistic, with Meta's expected growth in AI glasses shipments for 2026. Companies like Kangnait Optical are projected to see performance increases, and a joint venture with GoerTek is expected to accelerate AI glasses production [2][4][5]. - The paper industry is seeing stable prices for corrugated boxes in the short term, with an expected optimization of supply-demand dynamics in the medium term, which could enhance industry profitability [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and mitigating risks, indicating a significant shift in policy that could support the home furnishing sector. The gradual improvement in real estate supply and demand is expected to stabilize the market and reverse pessimistic expectations, thus pushing home furnishing valuations upward [5][6]. - The sector is witnessing accelerated consolidation since 2025, with mid-tier companies exiting and capital entering the market, which is driving industry concentration. The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery for leading home furnishing companies [5][6]. Metal Packaging - The report notes that some major clients are signing contracts for price increases, establishing a profit margin turning point for the industry. The consolidation among leading companies has led to a more stable industry structure, with improved profitability and bargaining power [6][7]. - The industry is expected to transition from oversupply to a balanced state, with demand recovery and increased canization rates in beer contributing to demand growth [7][8]. AI Glasses - Meta is expected to significantly increase its production capacity for AI glasses, with optimistic shipment forecasts. The collaboration between Kangnait Optical and GoerTek is anticipated to enhance production capabilities and market penetration [9][10]. - The report highlights the growing trend of AI glasses and the expected acceleration in market penetration due to technological advancements and cost reductions [9][10]. Paper Industry - The report indicates that the prices of corrugated boxes are stable in the short term, with an anticipated improvement in supply-demand dynamics that could enhance profitability in the medium term. The report suggests monitoring potential policy impacts and demand changes that could contribute to cyclical elasticity [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chain layouts and cost advantages for companies like Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and Bohui Paper, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the corrugated box market [14].

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 地产情绪升温，家居板块估值底部 向上；关注金属包装提价 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2026/01/19-2026/01/23 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com ...

博汇纸业 20260120 摘要 博汇纸业总产能已从并购时的 300 万吨提升至近 500 万吨，主要包括 300 万吨白卡纸、100 万吨双胶纸和 50 万吨箱板瓦楞纸。当前白卡纸 单吨利润约为 50 元，箱板瓦楞纸和石膏护面纸略亏，双胶纸略有盈利， 成本优势显著。 公司未来利润弹性主要依赖于白卡纸价格上涨。历史数据显示，白卡纸 单吨利润中枢约为 300-350 元，高点可达 800-1,000 元，目前利润仍 有较大上升空间。预计同业竞争解决过程中可能会将双胶纸业务置换出 去，使得公司更专注于白卡纸业务。 金光集团预计将优先注入价值 200 亿元的净资产，包括 450 万吨白卡 纸及配套化机浆，这将进一步提升博汇的成本优势和盈利水平。金光中 国白卡纸项目盈利能力强劲，单吨利润接近 400 元，远高于博汇。 解决同业竞争问题的最后期限为 2026 年 8 月，但大概率会延期。公司 已完成可注入资产评估，并梳理各项资产，为后续流程奠定基础。预计 今年内至少应能看到具体方案出台。 Q&A 博汇纸业在过去几年中有哪些经营上的改进？ 博汇纸业在过去几年中进行了多项经营改进。首先，自 2020 年金光集团入主 博汇以 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Copper**: Driven by mining incidents and demand from AI data centers, supply is tight, and prices remain high. The U.S. power company reports that 80% of new electricity demand comes from data centers, with AI servers using at least twice the copper of traditional servers [1][2][3]. - **Tin**: China relies heavily on overseas ore, with supply affected by Myanmar's mining ban and delays in Indonesian export licenses. Pre-Spring Festival stocking in China exacerbates shortages, with expectations of tight supply in the first half of 2026 [1][4]. - **Silver**: Limited expansion due to its by-product nature, with major producing countries facing declining ore grades. Increased demand from AI chip interconnections and liquid cooling, along with central banks increasing their holdings, leads to a structural supply gap, with prices expected to double within a year [1][4]. - **Beef Cattle**: Continuous reduction in breeding cows in China is expected to accelerate beef prices in the first half of 2026. The Ministry of Commerce's import measures support domestic beef prices, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in stock by September 2025 [1][18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by energy storage demand, supply elasticity is shrinking, and inventory levels are low. Global lithium supply growth is expected to slow to around 15% in 2026, shifting from oversupply to tight balance [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Drivers**: The price increases for copper, tin, and silver are primarily due to tight supply and rising demand from AI-related sectors, particularly data centers and electronic devices. The liquidity environment from global interest rate cuts also supports high price levels [2][3]. - **Copper Supply Issues**: Significant supply reductions from mining incidents in key regions, with an estimated annual loss of 500,000 tons. The demand surge from data centers further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. - **Tin Demand Growth**: The demand for tin is expected to rise due to its use in electronic solder, particularly with the evolution of AI servers and PCB technology [5]. - **Silver's Unique Position**: Silver's dual role as both an industrial and financial asset enhances its investment appeal, especially in a macroeconomic environment characterized by monetary easing [6]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities**: Key stocks to watch include stable leading mining companies and those with production capacity flexibility. Notable mentions include Zijin Mining and Western Mining for stability, and Jinchengxin and Industrial Bank for growth potential [6][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The cautious market sentiment regarding energy metals, particularly lithium, reflects a balance between fear of overvaluation and the desire to capitalize on potential gains [11]. - **Paper Industry Outlook**: The paper industry is expected to enter an upcycle in 2026, with improving fundamentals and low inventory levels providing conditions for price increases [12][15]. - **Beef Industry Dynamics**: The new import policies for beef are likely to support domestic prices and create opportunities within the beef supply chain [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries.