证券研究报告 | 2025年11月03日 太阳纸业（002078.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年三季报点评： 三季度盈利短期承压，四季度新产能集中投产 Q3 盈利短期承压，年内利润底部确认。2025Q1-Q3 公司实现收入 289.4 亿元 /-6.6%，归母净利润 25.0 亿元/+1.7%，扣非归母净利润 24.7 亿元/-4.6%； 其中 2025Q3 实现收入 98.2 亿元/-6.0%，归母净利润 7.2 亿元/+2.7%，扣非 归母净利润 7.1 亿元/-8.6%。受文化纸与溶解浆价格持续下跌影响，三季度 利润略有承压，四季度随着新产能集中投产，有望释放利润增量。 Q3 文化纸与溶解浆承压，箱板纸在成本拉升下提涨落地。根据隆众资讯数据， 1）文化纸：Q3 太阳双胶纸、双铜纸价格分别较 Q2 下跌 250 元/吨、450 元/ 吨，三季度文化纸进入需求淡季，供给端有较多增量增加，同时成本端浆价 处于低位，成本支撑较弱，受多方因素影响文化纸价格持续走低，吨盈利预 计承压；2）箱板瓦楞纸：Q3 华南箱板纸、高强瓦楞纸市场价分别较 Q2 上涨 150 元/吨、410 元/吨，三季度包装纸传导上游成本压力， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.936 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1.66% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of profitability at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for a recovery in industry conditions in Q4, driven by seasonal demand and new production capacity coming online [3][4]. - The company has successfully implemented its "integrated forestry-pulp-paper" strategy, which has created a strong cost advantage, as evidenced by its performance in Q3 [3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%. The net profit for the same period was 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [2][3]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 15.7% and 8.6%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [4]. - The company has announced its first mid-year dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.795 billion yuan, with a distribution ratio of 11.18% [4]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is advancing its new production capacity projects, including a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project and a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project, both expected to enhance production capabilities and reduce reliance on external pulp sources [4]. - The report anticipates that with the recovery of price levels and the release of new capacity, the company's revenue and profit will enter an upward trajectory starting from Q4 2025 [3][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.436 billion yuan, 4.026 billion yuan, and 4.485 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11%, 17%, and 11% [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic white card paper market is experiencing a new round of price adjustments, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper announcing a price increase of 200 CNY per ton effective November 1, 2025 [1] Company Summary - Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose nearly 4%, closing at 5.78 HKD with a trading volume of 47.615 million HKD [1] - The company is part of a broader trend where major paper manufacturers are increasing prices, indicating strong pricing power among leading firms [1] Industry Summary - The white card paper prices are gradually recovering but remain at the bottom of the cycle, with strong price support from leading companies [1] - The upcoming demand from events like Double Eleven and the Spring Festival is expected to keep packaging demand robust in Q4, with forecasts suggesting that the price of corrugated box paper may continue to be strong [1] - Q4 is traditionally a peak demand season, and with significant cost support, the packaging paper industry's outlook is expected to improve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.7% to 180 million yuan [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.99 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.34 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15.2%, 25.1%, and 14.8% respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5% in Q3 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 was 64.68 million, 56.99 million, and 59.28 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 51.7%, 42.2%, and 37.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0% in Q3 [4]. Group 2: Production Capacity Expansion - The company’s production capacity in Hubei has been continuously expanding, with the full production of industrial packaging paper lines in April, adding 550,000 tons per year of corrugated paper capacity, and the launch of two special paper production lines in September, adding 300,000 tons of glassine capacity and 70,000 tons of decorative paper capacity [5]. Group 3: Market Competition and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.0%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 margins at 8.8%, 7.7%, and 7.6% respectively [6]. - The average price per ton of paper cup base paper in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 was 6,800, 6,489, and 6,300 yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 300, 418, and 500 yuan [6]. - The average price per ton of hardwood pulp in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 was 4,782, 4,284, and 4,161 yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 402, 1,383, and 789 yuan [6]. Group 4: Expense Ratios - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.3%, 1.3%, 1.1%, and 2.2% respectively [7]. - In Q3 2025, the expense ratio rose to 5.0%, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.3%, 1.5%, 0.9%, and 2.2% respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year increase, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.7% to 180 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 was 1.99 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.34 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 15.2%, 25.1%, and 14.8% [1] - The net profit for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 was 64.68 million, 56.99 million, and 59.28 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 51.7%, 42.2%, and 37.3% [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.0%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin slightly decreasing by 0.04 percentage points from Q2 [2] Group 2: Production Capacity and Market Conditions - The company expanded its production capacity with the full operation of its industrial packaging paper production line in Hubei, adding 550,000 tons/year of corrugated paper capacity [2] - The company faced increased market competition, leading to a decline in gross margins, particularly in food cartons, cultural paper, and heat transfer paper [2] - The average price per ton for paper cup base paper decreased year-on-year in Q1, Q2, and Q3 by 300, 418, and 500 yuan respectively [2] Group 3: Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses rising due to increased bank loans and the cessation of capitalizing interest on project loans [3] - The expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 5.0%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with specific increases in management and financial expense ratios [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, with the Hubei industrial packaging paper capacity being released and the upcoming launch of the PM19 production line in Jiangxi [4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 31% for 2025 and 2026, and by 36% for 2027, reflecting increased market competition [4] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a "buy" rating based on its valuation levels and future growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability due to product structure upgrades and a successful integration of pulp and paper operations. The FY2025 results met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 177.3% [5][7] - The company has a strong production capacity of over 20 million tons in paper manufacturing, which provides significant scale advantages and upward elasticity in performance [7] - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 3.117 billion RMB for FY2026 and 4.425 billion RMB for FY2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.4% and 17.7% respectively [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2024 revenue is projected at 59.496 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, while FY2025 revenue is expected to reach 63.241 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase. The net profit for FY2025 is forecasted at 1.767 billion RMB, a 135% increase year-on-year [6][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.16 RMB in FY2024 to 0.38 RMB in FY2025, with a net asset return rate increasing from 1.66% to 3.74% [6][7] - The company’s market-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 32.7 in FY2024 to 13.9 in FY2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [6][7] Product and Market Dynamics - The company has diversified its product offerings, increasing the production capacity of cultural paper and white card paper, which are expected to account for 12% of total production capacity by FY2026 [7] - The company has seen a significant increase in gross profit per ton of paper, with FY2025 figures showing a gross profit of 337 RMB per ton, up from previous years [7] - The market dynamics for boxboard and corrugated paper are improving, with expected demand growth and a reduction in supply pressure from imports, which will benefit the company's performance [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [9][19]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 177.3% [9]. - The integration of pulp and paper production and the diversification of paper types have led to notable improvements in profitability [9]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in raw materials, with a projected increase in self-produced pulp capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability further [9]. - The company’s product structure is gradually improving, with a focus on high-end products, which is anticipated to benefit from industry demand recovery [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2025 revenue is projected at 63.241 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% for FY2026 and 10% for FY2027 [8]. - The net profit for FY2025 is expected to reach 1.767 billion RMB, with significant growth projected for the following years, reaching 4.425 billion RMB by FY2028 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.38 RMB in FY2025 to 0.94 RMB in FY2028 [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.74% in FY2025 to 7.64% in FY2028 [8].

消息面上，据纸引未来网，玖龙多个基地发布最新调价通知，其中最高上调50元/吨。此外，玖龙纸业 将于9月24日(本周三)举行董事会会议，以审批(其中包括)公司及其附属公司截至2025年6月30止年度末 期业绩及其发布。该公司此前发盈喜，预计将取得本年度(截至2025年6月30日止)盈利约人民币21亿元 至人民币23亿元之间，较去年度人民币7.94亿元增长165%至190%。 申万宏源认为，Q3行业逐渐进入旺季，箱板瓦楞纸赛道已开始小幅提价。此外海外浆厂控产意愿强 烈，浆价亦有小幅反弹，对纸价形成支撑。造纸行业过去受需求疲软、新增产能持续投放影响，行业开 工率处于低位，部分赛道处于亏损状态，随着反内卷带来的潜在供给改善可能，行业供需有望改善。 玖龙纸业(02689)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报6.05港元，成交额4068.04万港元。 ...

Company Overview - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) shares increased by 3.42%, reaching HKD 6.05, with a trading volume of HKD 40.68 million [1] - The company announced a price adjustment across multiple bases, with the highest increase being HKD 50 per ton [1] Financial Performance - The company is set to hold a board meeting on September 24 to approve the financial results for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - Nine Dragons Paper previously issued a profit warning, expecting a profit of approximately RMB 2.1 billion to RMB 2.3 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, representing a growth of 165% to 190% compared to last year's profit of RMB 794 million [1] Industry Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the paper industry is entering its peak season in Q3, with slight price increases observed in the corrugated box paper segment [1] - There is a strong willingness among overseas pulp mills to control production, leading to a slight rebound in pulp prices, which supports paper prices [1] - The paper industry has faced challenges due to weak demand and continuous new capacity additions, resulting in low operating rates and losses in some segments; however, potential supply improvements from reduced competition may enhance supply-demand dynamics [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that major companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Gujia Home and Xilinmen, have reported Q2 results that slightly exceed market expectations, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment towards home furnishing valuations [2][5] - The packaging paper prices have shown a slight recovery since August, with the upcoming peak season expected to boost demand for recycled paper [2][5] - The electronic cigarette sector, particularly companies like Smoore International, is benefiting from stricter regulations in the US and a recovery in Europe, leading to stable revenue and profit growth [2][5] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Gujia Home reported a Q2 revenue increase of 7.2% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 5.4%, with a 50%+ growth in functional product retail for H1 [5] - Xilinmen's Q2 revenue grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 22.4% [5] - The report suggests that many home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting an opportunity for valuation recovery [5] Paper and Packaging - As of August 22, 2025, the prices for various paper types are as follows: double glue paper at 4925 CNY/ton (-25 CNY), copper plate paper at 5110 CNY/ton (-40 CNY), and box board paper at 3484.2 CNY/ton (+29.2 CNY) [5][51] - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to report a profit of approximately 2.1 to 2.3 billion CNY for FY2025, a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190% [5][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with well-structured capacity and sufficient fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - The report notes that Steady Medical achieved a revenue of 5.3 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, with a net profit of 490 million CNY, up 28.1% [7] - The consumer goods sector is seeing strong growth in high-end medical supplies and personal care products [7] Export Chain - Home Depot reported Q2 2025 revenue of 45.3 billion USD, a nearly 5% year-on-year increase, slightly below market expectations [5] - The report indicates a positive trend in large orders, with transactions over 1000 USD increasing by 2.6% year-on-year [5] New Tobacco Products - Smoore International's H1 revenue reached 6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with a focus on ODM and proprietary brand businesses [5][9] - The report suggests that the new tobacco product market is expected to grow as international tobacco companies launch HNB products [9]