金 信 期 货 纸 业 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2026/1/9 品种聚焦 废纸基本面分析 基本情况 价格：1 月 9 日生意社全国基准价1622元/吨，日跌幅1.1%，延续下行趋势。全国多处纸厂下调。 供需：供给端相对充足，回收体系运转正常，部分地区受天气影响，回收量略有波动；纸厂存在区域性调 价，华东、华中部分纸厂上调收购价，华南多数纸厂下调，以调节到货量。需求疲软，下游包装厂多刚需 采购，节前备货意愿不强，交投清淡，华南地区需求端承压明显，华东、华中相对稳定。 库存：纸厂与打包站库存中等，部分纸厂因价格波动控制入库量，华南、华东部分纸厂库存压力略增，整 体去库节奏放缓 利润：打包站利润微薄，部分小型打包站因价格波动、人工成本上升，盈利空间收窄；大型纸厂通过调价 控制成本，废纸箱回收环节利润处于低位，整体盈利水平偏弱。 核心结论：前期受龙头纸厂提价带动止跌反弹，但下游需求未实质改善，节后价格震荡偏弱。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 热点聚焦 品种聚焦 GOLDTRUS ...

金 信 期 货 纸 业 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2026/1/8 品种聚焦 废纸基本面分析 基本情况 价格：1 月 8 日中国再生资源废纸价格指数（主流口径）为1598.24，日环比 - 0.44%，延续下行趋势。 全国多处纸厂下调20-30元。 供需：供给端相对充足，回收体系运转正常，部分地区受天气影响，回收量略有波动；纸厂存在区域性调 价，华东、华中部分纸厂上调收购价，华南多数纸厂下调，以调节到货量。需求疲软，下游包装厂多刚需 采购，节前备货意愿不强，交投清淡，华南地区需求端承压明显，华东、华中相对稳定。 库存：纸厂与打包站库存中等，部分纸厂因价格波动控制入库量，华南、华东部分纸厂库存压力略增，整 体去库节奏放缓 利润：打包站利润微薄，部分小型打包站因价格波动、人工成本上升，盈利空间收窄；大型纸厂通过调价 控制成本，废纸箱回收环节利润处于低位，整体盈利水平偏弱。 核心结论：前期受龙头纸厂提价带动止跌反弹，但下游需求未实质改善，节后价格震荡偏弱。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， ...

方案指出，鼓励在电炉钢产能集中区域建设大型废钢加工配送中心，推动废钢铁回收、拆解、加工、配 送一体化发展，提高废钢铁分类分级水平，推动废钢铁资源高效回收利用。支持建设废纸分拣加工中 心，加强箱板纸、书本纸、新闻纸等主要品类废纸供应。支持动力电池、储能电池生产企业加快建立完 善废旧电池回收利用体系。 （文章来源：新华社） 应用推广再生材料是完善废弃物循环利用体系、大力发展循环经济的重要手段，对保障我国资源安全、 增强产业链供应链韧性、推动实现碳达峰碳中和具有重要意义。方案明确，到2030年，废钢铁、废纸年 回收利用量分别超过3亿吨、8000万吨，再生有色金属、再生塑料年产量分别超过2500万吨、1950万 吨，汽车、电器电子产品、纺织、包装等领域再生材料替代使用比例稳步提升，再生材料应用对保障资 源安全、促进节能降碳的作用进一步增强。 新华社北京12月31日电（记者魏玉坤）国家发展改革委等部门印发的《再生材料应用推广行动方案》12 月31日发布，明确到2030年，废弃物循环利用体系进一步健全，再生材料推广应用等标准和认证体系逐 步建立。 ...

生意社12月24日讯 2025年12月24日江苏太仓玖龙纸业，A级箱板纸收购价格呈现调整，废纸收购价格上调30元/吨，调整后 执行到厂价格1680元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 废纸，多空评分：1 废纸收购价格上调30元/吨至1680元/吨，表明市场需求强劲，可能源于纸制品生产需求增加，对现货价 格构成利好。这将直接推高废纸现货市场交易价格，刺激供应端积极性。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、品牌价差、区域价差等因素。 生意社12月24日讯 2025年12月24日江苏太仓玖龙纸业，A级箱板纸收购价格呈现调整，废纸收购价格上调30元/吨，调整后 执行到厂价格1680元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 废纸，多空评分：1 废纸收购价格上调30元/吨至1680元/吨，表明市场需求强劲，可能源于纸制品生产需求增加，对现货价 格构成利好。这将直接推高废纸现货市场交易价格，刺激供应端积极 ...

废纸系：据卓创资讯，截至11月28日，废黄板纸价为1,906元/吨，周环比+12元/吨、同比+371元/吨；箱 板纸、瓦楞纸价3,892、3,216元/吨，周环比+10、+9元/吨，同比+257、+494元/吨；1-10M25箱板瓦楞纸 进口量555万吨，同比-143万吨。10月社会库存分别环比+0.1、+0.1万吨，瓦楞纸库存处于偏高水平；企 业库存分别环比-16、-15万吨，均处于偏低水平。 箱板瓦楞纸：看好Q4吨利润改善 本轮箱板瓦楞纸、废纸提价始于7月，前期涨幅主要由国废原料端带动，驱动因素在天气影响下国废回 收困难+海关总署强化进口再生浆质量管控；后期主要由旺季需求驱动、同时龙头配合基地停产检修 +涨价函。从企业吨利润角度看，看好25Q4吨利润改善表现，但考虑到原料、能源成本亦在提涨，预计 吨利润改善空间在100元内，各企业差异主要看产品结构(例如有自制纤维的高端牛卡预期改善空间更 大)。 浆纸系纸种：文化纸价格有压力，白卡纸提价持续性不强 行业近况 浆纸系：据卓创资讯，截至11月28日，针叶浆、阔叶浆价为5,453、4,394元/吨，周环比-124、+47元/ 吨，同比-56、+152元/吨；双胶 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华财经、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：结构性分化持续。白卡纸提价落地情况好，包装纸头部企业引领涨价潮，箱板纸、瓦楞 纸均价周环比均涨 80 元 / 吨；而文化纸需求依旧疲软，双胶纸即便计划提价，因缺乏需求支 撑，下游接受度低，整体需求未实现全面放量。 供给：宽松中现短期扰动。国内 10 月纸浆产量环比涨 10.2%，供给基础宽松；智利针叶浆外 盘报价下跌、阔叶浆报价上涨。不过美国木兰浆厂 11 月 20 日起临时停产，给全球供应带来短 期小幅扰动，但难改整体宽松格局。 纸浆 库存：延续高位累库态势。截至 11 月 20 日，国内主流港口纸浆样本库存量达 217.3 万吨， 较上期累库 6.3 万吨，环比涨 3.0%，其中青岛港持续宽幅累库，仅常熟港等少数港口呈窄幅去 库走势，整体库存处于年内中位水平。 利润：纸企利润分化。包装纸企业因产品提价，叠加纸浆成本稳升但传导顺畅，利润修复态势 明确；而依赖文化纸的企业仍承压，双胶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a series of price increases driven by high raw material costs, particularly waste paper, and a combination of supply constraints and seasonal demand factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major players in the packaging paper industry, such as Nine Dragons Paper Holdings and Shanying International, have initiated multiple rounds of price hikes since August, with Nine Dragons implementing eight price increases [1]. - The average market price for AA-grade corrugated paper reached 2,789 RMB/ton by September 18, marking a 2.42% increase from the end of August and a 7.72% year-on-year rise [1]. - The combination of price increases and planned production halts during the holiday season aims to maintain a bullish market sentiment and encourage procurement from packaging factories [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Challenges - Despite a slight uptick in orders ahead of the holidays, the overall recovery in demand for packaging paper remains below expectations, with current price increases primarily driven by cost rather than demand [3]. - The packaging paper industry faces ongoing pressures, including an imbalance between supply and demand due to rapid capacity growth since 2012 and a slowdown in global economic growth [4]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Future Outlook - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as a potential key to achieving supply-demand balance in the packaging paper industry, shifting focus from quantity expansion to quality improvement [4]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for differentiation in products and processes to escape low-price competition, with a focus on meeting customer needs through innovation [4]. - The implementation of new energy consumption standards in May 2025 is expected to drive technological upgrades and efficiency improvements within the industry [4]. - The process of capacity clearing and structural adjustment in the packaging paper industry is anticipated to take time, with price fluctuations and market competition playing a crucial role in achieving balance [5].

Group 1: Policy Impact - The "reverse invoicing" policy has effectively addressed the long-standing issue of "source invoice shortage" in the resource recovery industry, facilitating smoother transactions for resource recovery companies [2][3] - As of June 30, 2023, 13,300 resource recovery enterprises issued reverse invoices amounting to 515.2 billion yuan, with 5.11 million invoices issued to 1.67 million individuals [1] - The policy has significantly reduced financial costs for companies, allowing them to directly issue invoices to individuals selling scrap, thus enhancing operational efficiency [2][4] Group 2: Economic Benefits - The implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy has led to a notable increase in the volume of recycled goods, with a reported 65% year-on-year increase in the domestic scrap car recovery volume, reaching 2.767 million vehicles in the first four months of this year [8] - In Wuhu, the company has issued reverse invoices totaling nearly 8 million yuan, with an expected increase in the dismantling of scrapped vehicles by over 100% this year [2] - The policy has also stimulated consumer spending, with the "old-for-new" consumption program generating approximately 5.7 billion yuan in transactions [3] Group 3: Compliance and Awareness - The awareness of compliance among individuals and enterprises in the resource recovery sector has increased since the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy, leading to more direct transactions and reduced reliance on intermediaries [4][5] - The policy has encouraged individuals to register as individual businesses, with over 150 individuals in a specific city transitioning to registered businesses since the policy's implementation [5] Group 4: Environmental Impact - The "reverse invoicing" policy has facilitated the recycling of construction waste, with one company producing over 45 million eco-bricks and processing approximately 105,000 tons of solid waste, contributing to a reduction of 12,000 tons of carbon emissions [6][7] - The policy has also supported the resource utilization and harmless treatment of waste, with companies achieving over 98% utilization rates of recyclable materials [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - In July, the decline in pulp and paper prices slowed, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper prices continued to rise [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices for cultural paper have been declining, with the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper at 5094 CNY/ton, down 1.11% month-on-month and 9.34% year-on-year [10][23] - Supply and demand remain imbalanced, with production recovering but overall demand still weak [13][10] - Profitability is stable as both prices and costs are declining, with the average theoretical gross margin at 1.59% [23] White Cardboard - Prices continue to decline due to weak seasonal demand, with the average market price for 250-400g white cardboard at 4036 CNY/ton, down 1.25% month-on-month and 9.02% year-on-year [24] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, putting further pressure on prices [27] - Profit margins are decreasing as the price drop exceeds the cost drop, with gross margins declining [39] Boxboard - Prices for boxboard have shown mixed trends, with the average price at 3449 CNY/ton, down 1.49% month-on-month [42] - Demand is expected to recover in August, alleviating some supply pressure [46] - Profitability remains low as the price drop is greater than the cost drop [11] Waste Paper - The supply of waste paper is tight, leading to a gradual increase in prices [12] Wood Chips - Import volumes have increased month-on-month, with overall demand stabilizing [14] Wood Pulp - External prices are stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance persists, with average prices for imported hardwood pulp at 490 USD/ton [15][6]