白纸板：提价函推动价格上涨，经销商补库意向弱 截至1月28日，250-400g平张白卡纸市场成交含税月均价4268元/吨，环比+0.73%，同比-0.74%。影响价 格变动主要原因系：1)成本压力缓解有限，规模纸厂继续发函促涨;2)贸易商售价与成本出现倒挂，暂以 走货降库为主，价格拉涨谨慎;3)终端订单放量有限，贸易商出货欠佳。 箱瓦纸：纸厂涨价计划未落地，盈利承压 截至1月28日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场月均价2751元/吨，环比-11.60%，同比5.82%。影响价格变动 主要原因系：1)月初规模纸厂涨价函未能落实，转为保价政策并多次下调出厂价格，中小纸厂库存高 位，选择主动让利出货;2)主要原料废纸延续跌势，纸厂为规避高价原料风险，连续下调原料收购价 格，成本支撑不足;3)终端春节订单陆续放量，下游包装厂订单量增加，对瓦楞纸消耗量增加。 废纸：国废消费量下降，价格整体下跌 国泰海通发布研报称，1月进口木浆现货市场中多空因素并存、结构性差异明显导致价格走势分化。其 中阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，盈利略有承压，预计木浆市场供应先降 后增，需求跟进不足，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸价格 ...

Northeast Region - Liaoning Xingdong Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 2, with specific prices set for various grades [1] - Shenyang Jiu Long Paper Industry in Liaoning has also lowered yellow waste prices by 20 yuan/ton, with adjusted prices for different grades [1] - Fushun Amber Paper Industry in Liaoning has implemented price adjustments effective January 15, with specific prices for various grades [1] North China Region - Hebei Baoding Zeyu Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 4, with specific prices for different grades [1] - Tianjin Jiu Long Paper Industry has lowered yellow waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton, while other waste paper prices remain unchanged [2] - Tangshan Leiting Zhang's Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 50-30 yuan/ton starting February 2, with specific prices based on yellow board content [3] Central China Region - Henan Taikang Longyuan Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 3, with specific prices for various grades [6] - Hubei Xiangfan Jin Phoenix Paper Industry has adjusted prices for yellow paper grades, with reductions of 20 yuan/ton for A-grade and above [7] - Hubei Jingzhou Gong'an Mountain Eagle Paper Industry has adjusted prices for various grades of waste paper, with reductions of 20-10 yuan/ton [7] East China Region - Shandong Zibo Renfeng Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices starting February 4, with specific prices for different grades [8] - Jiangsu Xuzhou Jianping Paper Industry has lowered waste paper prices by 10 yuan/ton, with specific prices for various grades [8] - Anhui Xuancheng Wanli Paper Industry has increased prices for T-grade, A-grade, B-grade, and C-grade by 20-30 yuan/ton, while other prices remain unchanged [9] South China Region - Guangdong Dongguan Jintian Paper Industry has reduced prices for various grades of waste paper by 20 yuan/ton starting February 4 [26] - Guangdong Dongguan Jiu Long Paper Industry has increased white waste prices by 30 yuan/ton, with specific prices for different grades [27] - Guangdong Zhaoqing Mountain Eagle Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 30 yuan/ton, with specific prices for various grades [28]

Group 1 - The corrugated and boxboard paper market continues to experience a downward price trend, with large paper mills maintaining price protection policies while smaller mills are offering discounts due to inventory pressure [1] - Although there has been an increase in orders from downstream packaging factories ahead of the Spring Festival, there remains a cautious sentiment, leading to a focus on demand-based procurement [1] - The prices of major raw materials, particularly waste paper, have stabilized, providing some support to paper prices from the cost side [1] Group 2 - Despite the significant inventory pressure faced by upstream paper mills, the combination of increased orders before the holiday and cost support is expected to narrow the price decline in the corrugated and boxboard paper market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is enhancing the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste as part of its solid waste management strategy, focusing on reducing waste generation and improving recycling rates [1][2]. Group 1: Waste Reduction - The initiative aims to lower the intensity of industrial solid waste generation through green design and manufacturing practices [1]. - Key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals will be targeted for waste reduction efforts, promoting "waste-free" transformation in industrial parks and enterprises [1]. Group 2: Waste Utilization Improvement - The plan emphasizes increasing the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste and recycled resources, particularly focusing on typical categories like smelting slag, phosphogypsum, and red mud [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is pushing for technological advancements and industrialization in waste utilization, with a reported comprehensive utilization rate of 57% for major industrial solid waste in China [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of waste paper rebounded due to the price increase by leading paper mills but will be weak after the festival as downstream demand remains unimproved [5] - The price of box - board paper will remain stable, with supply contraction expected but short - term supply remaining ample, and it may see a price recovery window after the Spring Festival if production halts and demand picks up [12] - The price of double - offset paper will fluctuate within a range, with small mills likely to continue trading at lower prices, and the futures market has limited upside in the medium - to - long term [20] - The pulp futures market has a strong bullish sentiment, but the de - stocking pressure remains. It is recommended to trade within a range, with short positions on high prices and long positions on low prices under certain conditions [29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Waste Paper - **Price**: On January 9, the national benchmark price was 1,622 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.1%, continuing the downward trend [4] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and the recycling system operates normally. Some areas have slight fluctuations in recycling volume due to weather. Paper mills have regional price adjustments. Demand is weak, and downstream packaging factories mainly make rigid purchases with weak pre - festival stocking intentions [4] - **Inventory**: The inventory of paper mills and packing stations is at a medium level. Some paper mills control the inbound volume due to price fluctuations, and the inventory pressure of some paper mills in South China and East China has slightly increased, slowing down the overall de - stocking pace [4] - **Profit**: The profit of packing stations is meager, and the profit of the waste carton recycling link is at a low level, with the overall profitability being weak [4] Box - Board Paper - **Price**: On January 9, the overall price remained stable, and Jiulong Paper's 140g box - board paper was quoted at 4,600 yuan [12] - **Supply**: The supply is abundant. Some paper mills plan to shut down for maintenance or switch production due to poor profitability. Leading paper enterprises have announced shutdown plans at the beginning of 2026, increasing the expectation of supply contraction, but the short - term supply remains sufficient [12] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is still weak. The packaging industry has insufficient orders, and transactions are light. The shipment in coastal areas is relatively better than that in inland areas, and end - customers purchase cautiously to digest existing inventories [12] - **Inventory**: The inventory of paper mills continues to rise, and the industry inventory level is at a relatively high level within the year. Due to weak downstream demand, paper mills have a large pressure on inventory de - stocking [12] - **Profit**: The profit margin is limited. Affected by raw material costs and high inventory, the profitability of box - board paper enterprises is low. Some small paper mills are near the break - even point, while large paper mills have relatively better profit conditions through scale effects and cost control, but the overall industry profit is under pressure [12] Double - Offset Paper - **Price**: The price is stable. In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of high - white double - offset paper is 4,650 - 4,750 yuan/ton, and that of natural - white double - offset paper is 4,300 - 4,500 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is abundant, and the paper mill operating rate has increased. Some paper mills exchange volume for price to maintain market share. The futures market has rebounded to repair the previous discount, but the upside is limited in the medium - to - long term [20] Pulp - **Price**: On January 9, the price of softwood pulp in Shandong increased by 50 yuan [29] - **Supply - Demand**: Downstream paper mills' profits are weak, and they mainly make purchases as needed. The operating rates of double - offset paper and white cardboard have declined month - on - month, and spot transactions are light. The futures market has a strong bullish sentiment [29] - **Inventory**: The de - stocking pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated. The port inventory has fallen below 2 million tons and has been de - stocking for 5 consecutive weeks [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The price of waste paper rebounded due to the price increase of leading paper mills but will be weak after the festival as downstream demand has not improved [5]. - For box - board paper, although the supply contraction expectation is increasing, the current supply - demand situation is still supply - strong and demand - weak, with high inventory and price stability but profit pressure. After the Spring Festival, if the shutdown plan is implemented and demand recovers, there may be a price repair window [13]. - The price of double - offset paper will be range - bound. Small paper mills may continue to exchange price for volume, while large - scale mills are more likely to hold prices. The futures price has rebounded to repair the previous discount, but the upside space is limited in the medium - long term [20]. - For pulp futures, it is recommended to trade in a range. Short positions can be lightly tried at high prices, and long positions can be tried at low prices when the port inventory falls below 2 million tons and has been decreasing for 5 consecutive weeks [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Waste Paper - **Price**: On January 8, the China Renewable Resources Waste Paper Price Index (mainstream caliber) was 1598.24, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.44%, and many paper mills across the country lowered prices by 20 - 30 yuan [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is relatively sufficient, with some fluctuations in recycling volume due to weather. Paper mills adjust prices regionally. Demand is weak, and downstream packaging factories mainly make rigid purchases with weak pre - festival stocking willingness [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of paper mills and packing stations is at a medium level. The inventory pressure of some paper mills in South and East China has slightly increased, and the overall inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down [4]. - **Profit**: The profit of packing stations is meager, and the profit of the waste carton recycling link is at a low level, with the overall profitability being weak [4]. Box - Board Paper - **Price**: On January 8, the domestic packaging box - board paper was generally stable but slightly declined. Jiulong Paper in some areas such as Jiangsu Taicang and Tianjin lowered the price by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply**: The supply is abundant. Some paper mills plan to shut down for maintenance or switch production due to poor profitability. Leading paper enterprises have announced shutdown plans at the beginning of 2026, increasing the supply contraction expectation, but the short - term supply is still sufficient [13]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is still weak, with insufficient orders in the packaging industry. Coastal areas have relatively better shipment, while inland areas are slower. Terminal customers are cautious in purchasing and mainly consume existing inventory [13]. - **Inventory**: Paper mill inventory continues to rise, and the industry inventory level is at a relatively high level this year. The inventory reduction pressure is large due to weak downstream demand [13]. - **Profit**: The profit margin is limited. Affected by raw material costs and high inventory, the profitability of box - board paper enterprises is low. Some small paper mills are near the break - even point, while large paper mills have relatively better profitability through scale effects and cost control, but the overall industry profit is under pressure [13]. Double - Offset Paper - **Price**: The price of double - offset paper is stable. In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of high - white double - offset paper is 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton, and that of natural - white double - offset paper is 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [20]. - **Supply**: The supply is abundant, the paper mill operating rate has increased, and the production capacity is sufficient. Some paper mills exchange price for volume to maintain market share [20]. - **Futures**: The futures price has rebounded to repair the previous discount, but the upside space is limited in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. Pulp Futures - **Price**: On January 8, the quotation of softwood pulp in Shandong area decreased by 50 yuan [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream paper mills' profits are weak, and they mainly make rigid purchases. The operating rates of double - offset paper and white cardboard have decreased month - on - month, and the spot trading is light, but the futures market is bullish [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has fallen below 2 million tons and has been decreasing for 5 consecutive weeks, which can be used as a signal for long - position entry [29].

Core Viewpoint - The "Recycled Materials Application Promotion Action Plan" aims to enhance the waste recycling system and promote the application of recycled materials by 2030, which is crucial for resource security, supply chain resilience, and achieving carbon neutrality in China [1]. Group 1: Recycling Goals - By 2030, the annual recycling volumes for waste steel and waste paper are projected to exceed 300 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively [1]. - The annual production of recycled non-ferrous metals and recycled plastics is expected to surpass 25 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively [1]. - The proportion of recycled materials used in sectors such as automotive, electronics, textiles, and packaging is set to steadily increase [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Support - The plan encourages the establishment of large-scale waste steel processing and distribution centers in regions with concentrated electric furnace steel production, promoting integrated development of waste steel recycling, dismantling, processing, and distribution [1]. - It supports the construction of waste paper sorting and processing centers, focusing on major categories such as boxboard, book paper, and newsprint [1]. - The plan advocates for battery production companies to accelerate the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system for used batteries [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the waste paper purchase price has been increased by 30 yuan/ton, resulting in a new price of 1680 yuan/ton, indicating strong market demand likely driven by increased production needs in the paper products sector [1][4]. - The increase in waste paper prices is expected to directly boost the spot market trading prices and stimulate supply-side activity [2][5]. - The pricing model used by the company is based on big data and a pricing model, which serves as a trading guide price, known as the "Shengyi Price" [2][5]. Group 2 - The pricing formula for determining transaction settlement prices includes an adjustment coefficient (K) that accounts for factors such as account period costs [2][5]. - The additional costs (C) in the pricing formula include logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [3][6].

废纸系：据卓创资讯，截至11月28日，废黄板纸价为1,906元/吨，周环比+12元/吨、同比+371元/吨；箱 板纸、瓦楞纸价3,892、3,216元/吨，周环比+10、+9元/吨，同比+257、+494元/吨；1-10M25箱板瓦楞纸 进口量555万吨，同比-143万吨。10月社会库存分别环比+0.1、+0.1万吨，瓦楞纸库存处于偏高水平；企 业库存分别环比-16、-15万吨，均处于偏低水平。 箱板瓦楞纸：看好Q4吨利润改善 本轮箱板瓦楞纸、废纸提价始于7月，前期涨幅主要由国废原料端带动，驱动因素在天气影响下国废回 收困难+海关总署强化进口再生浆质量管控；后期主要由旺季需求驱动、同时龙头配合基地停产检修 +涨价函。从企业吨利润角度看，看好25Q4吨利润改善表现，但考虑到原料、能源成本亦在提涨，预计 吨利润改善空间在100元内，各企业差异主要看产品结构(例如有自制纤维的高端牛卡预期改善空间更 大)。 浆纸系纸种：文化纸价格有压力，白卡纸提价持续性不强 行业近况 浆纸系：据卓创资讯，截至11月28日，针叶浆、阔叶浆价为5,453、4,394元/吨，周环比-124、+47元/ 吨，同比-56、+152元/吨；双胶 ...

Group 1: Overall Conclusion - The core pattern of loose supply and demand in the pulp market remains unchanged. Short - term factors such as pulp mill shutdowns and packaging paper price increases provide slight support for prices, but weak cultural paper demand and continuous port inventory accumulation limit the upside space. The pulp futures 01 contract already has delivery profits, and further upside is limited. It is likely to show a volatile trend subsequently [6]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the double - offset paper market persists. Although paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices in the short term, weak demand cannot support a significant price increase. Coupled with the poor transmission of rising wood pulp costs, double - offset paper futures are likely to maintain a weak range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated release of publishing tenders on the market [17]. Group 2: Pulp Demand - There is a continuous structural differentiation in demand. The price increase of white cardboard has been successfully implemented, and leading packaging paper enterprises are driving a price increase wave. The average prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper have both increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. However, the demand for cultural paper remains weak. Even though double - offset paper plans to raise prices, due to lack of demand support, downstream acceptance is low, and overall demand has not fully expanded [5]. Supply - Supply is generally loose with short - term disturbances. China's pulp production increased by 10.2% month - on - month in October, providing a solid supply foundation. The FOB price of Chilean softwood pulp decreased while that of hardwood pulp increased. However, the temporary shutdown of the US Magnolia pulp mill since November 20 has brought short - term minor disturbances to global supply, but it is difficult to change the overall loose pattern [5]. Inventory - Pulp inventory continues to accumulate at a high level. As of November 20, the inventory of pulp samples at major domestic ports reached 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. Only a few ports such as Changshu Port showed a narrow - range destocking trend, while Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory significantly. The overall inventory is at a medium level for the year [5]. Profit - There is a differentiation in paper enterprises' profits. Packaging paper enterprises' profits are clearly recovering due to product price increases and smooth cost transmission of steadily rising pulp costs. However, enterprises relying on cultural paper are still under pressure. The inventory of products such as double - offset paper is high, price increases are difficult to implement, and cost pressure is difficult to transfer, resulting in low gross margins [5]. Group 3: Double - Offset Paper Demand - Demand is mainly based on rigid needs with limited support. Publishing tenders are progressing, but local tender prices are low, having little impact on market prices. Social orders have not improved significantly. Downstream printing factories purchase as needed, and dealers mainly digest previous inventories. There is insufficient follow - up for new orders of double - offset paper, and overall demand has not increased [16]. Supply - Supply is abundant with a slight easing of pressure. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points to 52.20%. Although some production lines in Jiangsu are under maintenance and some small and medium - sized factories in Shandong are operating below capacity, most large - scale paper enterprises are producing as planned, and new production capacity in South China is continuously increasing, so the overall supply remains abundant [16]. Inventory - Inventory shows an accumulation trend. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.54% week - on - week. Due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and limited new orders, the paper mills' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure, remaining at a relatively high level [16]. Profit - Losses continue to expand, and paper enterprises face significant profit pressure. On the one hand, rising wood pulp prices have increased raw material costs. On the other hand, although some paper enterprises plan to raise the price of double - offset paper by 200 yuan/ton, due to weak demand, the price increase is difficult to be accepted by downstream customers, and costs cannot be transferred smoothly [16]. Group 4: Waste Paper Demand - Rigid demand provides support, but the intensity is weakening. E - commerce inventory replenishment still supports packaging paper orders, driving paper mills' rigid demand for waste paper replenishment. However, the overall demand release is weaker than before. The sales of waste - paper - based products such as corrugated paper and boxboard paper have decreased by 10.8% and 17.9% respectively, and the purchase prices of waste paper in some regional paper mills have been adjusted downward, resulting in light trading [26]. Supply - There is a regional differentiation in supply, and the overall tightness has eased. The arrival of waste paper in East and North China has increased significantly, improving the shortage of circulating supplies. However, the supply in South China remains tight. The waste paper prices across the country show a mixed trend. For example, Shandong Tai'an Taihe Gypsum Paper Industry has raised prices by 40 - 90 yuan/ton, while many paper enterprises in Guizhou have lowered prices by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, reflecting the regional imbalance on the supply side [26]. Inventory - There is a structural differentiation in inventory. At the paper mill end, the inventories of waste - paper - based base papers such as corrugated paper and boxboard paper are decreasing, with a month - on - month decline of 1.0% - 1.1%. However, the waste - paper recycling end is under great pressure. The previous downward fluctuation of waste paper prices has led to inventory backlogs in many packing stations, with some packing stations having inventories of nearly 500 tons and significant destocking pressure [26]. Profit - There is an obvious differentiation in industry profits. The profits of waste - paper - based paper enterprises have been repaired. The price increase of base papers such as boxboard paper and corrugated paper is higher than the increase in waste paper costs, and the corresponding gross profit margins have increased by 7.2% and 10.8% respectively. However, waste - paper recycling enterprises are deeply in losses. Some packing stations bought waste paper at high prices before, and the current selling price is below the cost line, with a loss of more than 400 yuan per ton. Small and medium - sized recyclers face great profit pressure [27]. Group 5: Packaging Paper (Boxboard Paper) Demand - There is still demand for inventory replenishment, but its release is weak. The replenishment demand after e - commerce promotions still supports orders to some extent. However, the overall demand is weaker than before. This week, the sales volume of boxboard paper reached 639,000 tons, a 17.9% week - on - week decrease. The trading in some regional paper mills is light, and purchase prices have been adjusted downward [37]. Supply - The supply contraction is obvious. This week, the capacity utilization rate of boxboard paper has dropped to 67.5%, a 3.3% week - on - week decrease, and the output has also decreased to 631,000 tons. Leading paper enterprises such as Nine Dragons and Shanying are implementing shutdown and maintenance plans, which not only reduce short - term supply but also accelerate the clearance of inefficient production capacity. At the same time, changes in the recycled pulp import policy further reduce supply, jointly supporting the price increase of boxboard paper [37]. Inventory - The low - level destocking trend continues. The boxboard paper inventory at the paper mill end has decreased by 1.0% week - on - week, and the overall inventory is at a low level. This inventory contraction not only reduces market supply pressure but also provides strong support for boxboard paper price increases, driving the market to operate steadily and slightly strongly [37]. Profit - The profit repair is significant. This week, the price of boxboard paper has increased with the industry - wide price increase wave, and the price increase is higher than the increase in raw material costs such as waste paper, driving the gross profit margin to increase by 7.2%. Leading enterprises, with their advantages in the whole industrial chain layout and pricing power, have more prominent profit repair during the price increase wave, further widening the profit gap [37].