Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - In July, the decline in pulp and paper prices slowed, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper prices continued to rise [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices for cultural paper have been declining, with the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper at 5094 CNY/ton, down 1.11% month-on-month and 9.34% year-on-year [10][23] - Supply and demand remain imbalanced, with production recovering but overall demand still weak [13][10] - Profitability is stable as both prices and costs are declining, with the average theoretical gross margin at 1.59% [23] White Cardboard - Prices continue to decline due to weak seasonal demand, with the average market price for 250-400g white cardboard at 4036 CNY/ton, down 1.25% month-on-month and 9.02% year-on-year [24] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, putting further pressure on prices [27] - Profit margins are decreasing as the price drop exceeds the cost drop, with gross margins declining [39] Boxboard - Prices for boxboard have shown mixed trends, with the average price at 3449 CNY/ton, down 1.49% month-on-month [42] - Demand is expected to recover in August, alleviating some supply pressure [46] - Profitability remains low as the price drop is greater than the cost drop [11] Waste Paper - The supply of waste paper is tight, leading to a gradual increase in prices [12] Wood Chips - Import volumes have increased month-on-month, with overall demand stabilizing [14] Wood Pulp - External prices are stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance persists, with average prices for imported hardwood pulp at 490 USD/ton [15][6]

Steel Recycling Industry - The current price index for scrap steel in China is 2178 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day, indicating a cautious trading environment for scrap steel manufacturers [3][20]. - A detailed overview of scrap steel prices across various cities shows that prices for heavy scrap (≥6mm) range from 1950 to 2360 yuan/ton, with most regions reporting stable prices [4][5]. Paper Recycling Industry - The current price index for recycled paper in China is 1551 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous working day, suggesting a stable market for paper recyclers [7][20]. - A comprehensive list of recycled paper prices indicates that prices for first-grade paper in Shandong range from 1410 to 1580 yuan/ton, with no significant changes reported [9]. Aluminum Recycling Industry - The current price for recycled aluminum in China is 15400 yuan/ton, reflecting a stable market condition for aluminum recyclers [10][20]. - A regional price overview shows that prices for bright aluminum wire range from 18100 to 18500 yuan/ton in various cities, with most prices remaining stable [11][12]. Copper Recycling Industry - The current price for recycled copper in China is 73700 yuan/ton, indicating a stable pricing environment for copper recyclers [14][20]. - A detailed price list reveals that bright copper prices range from 72100 to 73400 yuan/ton across different regions, with most areas experiencing a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [17][18].

Steel Recycling Industry - The current price index for recycled steel in China is 2214 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 0.6 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day, indicating a need for steel manufacturers to closely monitor price fluctuations and trade cautiously [2][20] - A detailed overview of recycled steel prices across various cities on May 8 includes prices ranging from 2095 to 2375 yuan/ton, with some regions showing stable prices while others reflect slight declines [4][5] Paper Recycling Industry - The price index for recycled paper in China is 1517 yuan/ton, down by 1 yuan/ton from the previous working day, suggesting that local paper merchants should be vigilant about price trends and operate cautiously [6][20] - The price list for recycled paper on May 8 shows various prices across different manufacturers, with prices ranging from 1320 to 1590 yuan/ton, indicating stability in some areas while others have minor fluctuations [8] Aluminum Recycling Industry - The current price for recycled aluminum in China is 14900 yuan/ton, with a recommendation for local aluminum merchants to monitor price trends closely [10][20] - The price report for recycled aluminum on May 8 indicates a range of prices from 14800 to 17600 yuan/ton across different regions, with some prices decreasing by up to 300 yuan/ton [13][14] Copper Recycling Industry - The price for recycled copper in China is currently 72100 yuan/ton, with local copper merchants advised to keep a close watch on price movements [15][20] - The price overview for recycled copper on May 8 shows a range from 44700 to 71800 yuan/ton across various regions, with notable decreases in prices by up to 700 yuan/ton in some areas [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, specifically recommending Sun Paper (002078) and others [4]. Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 0.17%, outperforming the market by 0.61 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector declined by 1.34%, underperforming the market by 0.91 percentage points [2][12]. - The report highlights a seasonal downturn in cultural paper, with falling pulp prices, and anticipates a gradual improvement in overall supply and demand in the industry by 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 9th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector showing a decline [12][18]. - The four major sub-sectors of light industry, ranked by growth, are packaging printing, cultural products, furniture, and paper, with respective increases of 1.07%, 1.03%, 0.07%, and a decrease of 1.34% in the paper sector [12][16]. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Pulp prices have decreased, with domestic waste paper prices down by 7 CNY/ton, and various paper products also seeing price reductions [9][22]. - The report notes that the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling 38.19 million tons [53][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper sector, such as Sun Paper (002078), Xianhe Shares (603733), Huawang Technology (605377), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) [4]. - For waste paper products, it suggests investing in Jiu Long Paper (02689) and Shanying International (600567) due to expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [4].