GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华财经、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：结构性分化持续。白卡纸提价落地情况好，包装纸头部企业引领涨价潮，箱板纸、瓦楞 纸均价周环比均涨 80 元 / 吨；而文化纸需求依旧疲软，双胶纸即便计划提价，因缺乏需求支 撑，下游接受度低，整体需求未实现全面放量。 供给：宽松中现短期扰动。国内 10 月纸浆产量环比涨 10.2%，供给基础宽松；智利针叶浆外 盘报价下跌、阔叶浆报价上涨。不过美国木兰浆厂 11 月 20 日起临时停产，给全球供应带来短 期小幅扰动，但难改整体宽松格局。 纸浆 库存：延续高位累库态势。截至 11 月 20 日，国内主流港口纸浆样本库存量达 217.3 万吨， 较上期累库 6.3 万吨，环比涨 3.0%，其中青岛港持续宽幅累库，仅常熟港等少数港口呈窄幅去 库走势，整体库存处于年内中位水平。 利润：纸企利润分化。包装纸企业因产品提价，叠加纸浆成本稳升但传导顺畅，利润修复态势 明确；而依赖文化纸的企业仍承压，双胶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a series of price increases driven by high raw material costs, particularly waste paper, and a combination of supply constraints and seasonal demand factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major players in the packaging paper industry, such as Nine Dragons Paper Holdings and Shanying International, have initiated multiple rounds of price hikes since August, with Nine Dragons implementing eight price increases [1]. - The average market price for AA-grade corrugated paper reached 2,789 RMB/ton by September 18, marking a 2.42% increase from the end of August and a 7.72% year-on-year rise [1]. - The combination of price increases and planned production halts during the holiday season aims to maintain a bullish market sentiment and encourage procurement from packaging factories [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Challenges - Despite a slight uptick in orders ahead of the holidays, the overall recovery in demand for packaging paper remains below expectations, with current price increases primarily driven by cost rather than demand [3]. - The packaging paper industry faces ongoing pressures, including an imbalance between supply and demand due to rapid capacity growth since 2012 and a slowdown in global economic growth [4]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Future Outlook - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as a potential key to achieving supply-demand balance in the packaging paper industry, shifting focus from quantity expansion to quality improvement [4]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for differentiation in products and processes to escape low-price competition, with a focus on meeting customer needs through innovation [4]. - The implementation of new energy consumption standards in May 2025 is expected to drive technological upgrades and efficiency improvements within the industry [4]. - The process of capacity clearing and structural adjustment in the packaging paper industry is anticipated to take time, with price fluctuations and market competition playing a crucial role in achieving balance [5].

Group 1: Policy Impact - The "reverse invoicing" policy has effectively addressed the long-standing issue of "source invoice shortage" in the resource recovery industry, facilitating smoother transactions for resource recovery companies [2][3] - As of June 30, 2023, 13,300 resource recovery enterprises issued reverse invoices amounting to 515.2 billion yuan, with 5.11 million invoices issued to 1.67 million individuals [1] - The policy has significantly reduced financial costs for companies, allowing them to directly issue invoices to individuals selling scrap, thus enhancing operational efficiency [2][4] Group 2: Economic Benefits - The implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy has led to a notable increase in the volume of recycled goods, with a reported 65% year-on-year increase in the domestic scrap car recovery volume, reaching 2.767 million vehicles in the first four months of this year [8] - In Wuhu, the company has issued reverse invoices totaling nearly 8 million yuan, with an expected increase in the dismantling of scrapped vehicles by over 100% this year [2] - The policy has also stimulated consumer spending, with the "old-for-new" consumption program generating approximately 5.7 billion yuan in transactions [3] Group 3: Compliance and Awareness - The awareness of compliance among individuals and enterprises in the resource recovery sector has increased since the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy, leading to more direct transactions and reduced reliance on intermediaries [4][5] - The policy has encouraged individuals to register as individual businesses, with over 150 individuals in a specific city transitioning to registered businesses since the policy's implementation [5] Group 4: Environmental Impact - The "reverse invoicing" policy has facilitated the recycling of construction waste, with one company producing over 45 million eco-bricks and processing approximately 105,000 tons of solid waste, contributing to a reduction of 12,000 tons of carbon emissions [6][7] - The policy has also supported the resource utilization and harmless treatment of waste, with companies achieving over 98% utilization rates of recyclable materials [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - In July, the decline in pulp and paper prices slowed, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper prices continued to rise [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices for cultural paper have been declining, with the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper at 5094 CNY/ton, down 1.11% month-on-month and 9.34% year-on-year [10][23] - Supply and demand remain imbalanced, with production recovering but overall demand still weak [13][10] - Profitability is stable as both prices and costs are declining, with the average theoretical gross margin at 1.59% [23] White Cardboard - Prices continue to decline due to weak seasonal demand, with the average market price for 250-400g white cardboard at 4036 CNY/ton, down 1.25% month-on-month and 9.02% year-on-year [24] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, putting further pressure on prices [27] - Profit margins are decreasing as the price drop exceeds the cost drop, with gross margins declining [39] Boxboard - Prices for boxboard have shown mixed trends, with the average price at 3449 CNY/ton, down 1.49% month-on-month [42] - Demand is expected to recover in August, alleviating some supply pressure [46] - Profitability remains low as the price drop is greater than the cost drop [11] Waste Paper - The supply of waste paper is tight, leading to a gradual increase in prices [12] Wood Chips - Import volumes have increased month-on-month, with overall demand stabilizing [14] Wood Pulp - External prices are stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance persists, with average prices for imported hardwood pulp at 490 USD/ton [15][6]

Steel Recycling Industry - The current price index for scrap steel in China is 2178 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day, indicating a cautious trading environment for scrap steel manufacturers [3][20]. - A detailed overview of scrap steel prices across various cities shows that prices for heavy scrap (≥6mm) range from 1950 to 2360 yuan/ton, with most regions reporting stable prices [4][5]. Paper Recycling Industry - The current price index for recycled paper in China is 1551 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous working day, suggesting a stable market for paper recyclers [7][20]. - A comprehensive list of recycled paper prices indicates that prices for first-grade paper in Shandong range from 1410 to 1580 yuan/ton, with no significant changes reported [9]. Aluminum Recycling Industry - The current price for recycled aluminum in China is 15400 yuan/ton, reflecting a stable market condition for aluminum recyclers [10][20]. - A regional price overview shows that prices for bright aluminum wire range from 18100 to 18500 yuan/ton in various cities, with most prices remaining stable [11][12]. Copper Recycling Industry - The current price for recycled copper in China is 73700 yuan/ton, indicating a stable pricing environment for copper recyclers [14][20]. - A detailed price list reveals that bright copper prices range from 72100 to 73400 yuan/ton across different regions, with most areas experiencing a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [17][18].

Steel Recycling Industry - The current price index for recycled steel in China is 2214 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 0.6 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day, indicating a need for steel manufacturers to closely monitor price fluctuations and trade cautiously [2][20] - A detailed overview of recycled steel prices across various cities on May 8 includes prices ranging from 2095 to 2375 yuan/ton, with some regions showing stable prices while others reflect slight declines [4][5] Paper Recycling Industry - The price index for recycled paper in China is 1517 yuan/ton, down by 1 yuan/ton from the previous working day, suggesting that local paper merchants should be vigilant about price trends and operate cautiously [6][20] - The price list for recycled paper on May 8 shows various prices across different manufacturers, with prices ranging from 1320 to 1590 yuan/ton, indicating stability in some areas while others have minor fluctuations [8] Aluminum Recycling Industry - The current price for recycled aluminum in China is 14900 yuan/ton, with a recommendation for local aluminum merchants to monitor price trends closely [10][20] - The price report for recycled aluminum on May 8 indicates a range of prices from 14800 to 17600 yuan/ton across different regions, with some prices decreasing by up to 300 yuan/ton [13][14] Copper Recycling Industry - The price for recycled copper in China is currently 72100 yuan/ton, with local copper merchants advised to keep a close watch on price movements [15][20] - The price overview for recycled copper on May 8 shows a range from 44700 to 71800 yuan/ton across various regions, with notable decreases in prices by up to 700 yuan/ton in some areas [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, specifically recommending Sun Paper (002078) and others [4]. Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 0.17%, outperforming the market by 0.61 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector declined by 1.34%, underperforming the market by 0.91 percentage points [2][12]. - The report highlights a seasonal downturn in cultural paper, with falling pulp prices, and anticipates a gradual improvement in overall supply and demand in the industry by 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 9th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector showing a decline [12][18]. - The four major sub-sectors of light industry, ranked by growth, are packaging printing, cultural products, furniture, and paper, with respective increases of 1.07%, 1.03%, 0.07%, and a decrease of 1.34% in the paper sector [12][16]. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Pulp prices have decreased, with domestic waste paper prices down by 7 CNY/ton, and various paper products also seeing price reductions [9][22]. - The report notes that the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling 38.19 million tons [53][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper sector, such as Sun Paper (002078), Xianhe Shares (603733), Huawang Technology (605377), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) [4]. - For waste paper products, it suggests investing in Jiu Long Paper (02689) and Shanying International (600567) due to expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [4].