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能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251130
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 11:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain oscillating weakly in the short term. The imported pulp market is expected to continue to be differentiated. Coniferous pulp is under pressure due to high inventory and financial attribute disturbances, while broadleaf pulp is relatively resistant to decline supported by costs, but weak demand will limit its upside potential [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory at Changshu Port was 572,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 3.1%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,429,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,000 tons or 2.3%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 17.6%. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports was 2,172,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.05%, showing a slight de - stocking trend [5][6]. - According to Longzhong Information on November 27, Chile's Arauco Company's November offer for broadleaf pulp Star was $550 per ton, and for natural pulp Venus was $620 per ton [6]. Market Data Market Trends - On November 28, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 202 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.49%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 28 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 33.33%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.89% [15]. Monthly Spreads - On November 28, 2025, the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43.75%. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.08% [20]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Jinyu was 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.20%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Jinyu was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.84% [27]. - The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 119.43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 57.07% and a year - on - year increase of 47.47%. The import profit of broadleaf pulp (Star) was - 29.54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165.34% and a year - on - year increase of 69.93% [30]. - The spot price of imported coniferous pulp declined further. On November 28, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.32%. The price of broadleaf pulp was expected to increase slightly due to cost support [32][35]. Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual prices falling. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp decreased, and the operating rate of domestic broadleaf pulp decreased [44][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month. In October, the global pulp shipping volume decreased seasonally month - on - month [52]. - In August 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level with high inventory, while the shipping volume of broadleaf pulp remained high but with a low inventory days [56]. - In August 2025, the total coniferous pulp exports of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month and were at a low level year - on - year. In September, Finland's exports to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Chile's coniferous pulp exports to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September 2025, the total broadleaf pulp exports of Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Brazil's exports decreased slightly month - on - month, and Uruguay's exports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. Coniferous pulp imports increased by 0.06% month - on - month, broadleaf pulp imports decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the imports of natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. Demand - The price of offset paper increased slightly this week. Due to profitability and production - sales pressure, some production lines were transferred or operated at reduced loads. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, with users mainly making rigid purchases [72]. - The price of coated paper decreased slightly this week. The supply was abundant, and the consumption was weak due to the impact of electronic media. Factories' willingness to support prices increased [76]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable. Although the cost decreased slightly, it was still at a high level. Paper mills planned to increase prices in December. The supply increased due to new capacity, and the sales were stable. Traders were mainly waiting and seeing [80]. - The price of household paper remained stable. The terminal demand was weak, and some paper enterprises faced shipment pressure. The de - stocking process slowed down, and the industry operating rate remained low [84]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [88]. Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 209,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.92% [91]. - The overall port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased slightly, Changshu Port's inventory increased, and the inventory of other ports fluctuated within a normal range [97].