021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃su ...

Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Liu Youran, Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The pulp market shows a situation of strong pulp and weak paper. Recently, the excessive increase in raw material prices has increased the processing pressure on downstream paper mills, and the cultural paper market price is still under pressure. In the short term, funds are gambling on the pricing of old and new warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,548 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,572 yuan/ton, a overall increase of 0.43%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,850 - 6,300 yuan/ton, a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. Among them, the quotation of Shandong Arauco Silver Star was 5,550 - 5,580 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's December pulp export quotation: the price of softwood pulp Silver Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 700 US dollars/ton; the price of unbleached pulp Venus remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton; the price of hardwood pulp Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 570 US dollars/ton. According to PPPC, in October, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with softwood pulp down 7.1% and hardwood pulp down 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly year-on-year. According to Europulp data, in October 2025, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports decreased by 10.2% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. In November 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. As of December 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9817 million tons, a decrease of 3.00% from the previous week [8] 2. Industry News - On December 11th, Suzano's board of directors approved a capital increase plan of 5 billion Brazilian reals, which was achieved by capitalizing the remaining capital increase reserve and part of the investment reserve without issuing new shares. After this capital increase, the company's share capital increased to 24.27 billion Brazilian reals, with a total of more than 1.26 billion shares. At the same time, the pulp producer released its latest cost estimate for its pulp business in 2027, which considered the expected currency adjustment next year, the change in the inflation rate in 2025, and the adjustment related to the previous scenario [9] - On December 11th, according to the previous project announcement of Nine Dragons Paper, in order to further improve the product raw material structure, it plans to carry out technological transformation on the existing project at the Beihai base, and build a 800,000-ton unbleached chemical pulp production line, a 500,000-ton kraft linerboard production line, and supporting alkali recovery systems (including lime kilns), environmental protection supporting projects, etc. After the expansion and renovation, the newly added unbleached chemical pulp will replace part of the waste paper raw materials of the existing papermaking lines, produce higher-quality papermaking products that better meet market demand, achieve the balance of pulp and paper in the whole plant, and lay a foundation for expanding high-end paper types [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot-futures price differences, softwood-hardwood price differences, inter-period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][15][24]

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract 2601 closed at 13,835 CNY/ton, an increase of 85 CNY/ton, or 0.62% week-on-week [2][17] - In Xinjiang, the spot price of cotton reached 14,896 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton, while the national weighted average spot price was 15,062 CNY/ton, increasing by 40 CNY/ton [2][18] - As of the end of November 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 4.6836 million tons, up 175.3 thousand tons, a 59.82% increase from the previous month [3][18] International Market Analysis - The USDA reported a 36% decrease in net cotton contracts for the week of November 7-13, with a total of 42,547 tons signed [2][18] - The U.S. cotton production is under pressure due to increased inventory levels, while global textile consumption remains weak, leading to short-term pressure on cotton prices [4][18] - The cotton market is expected to face seasonal supply pressures as new cotton is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere [4][19] Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase as the harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, contributing to a seasonal rise in commercial inventory [5][19] - The demand side shows weakness as the textile industry enters its off-season, although spinning profits have improved, limiting downward pressure on cotton prices [5][19] - The strategy suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, focusing on buying opportunities in the 05 contract due to expected tight supply in the new year [6][20] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract 2605 closed at 5,214 CNY/ton, down 19 CNY/ton, or 0.36% week-on-week [7][21] - In Guangxi, the spot price of sugar was 5,370 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, it was 5,295 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton [7][22] - Brazil's sugarcane planting area is projected to be 9.398 million hectares, a 0.2% decrease from the previous month, with sugar production expected to decline by 1.4% year-on-year [8][22] Market Dynamics - The global sugar supply remains in surplus, with no immediate signs of reversal, limiting the potential for price rebounds in the short to medium term [9][23] - Domestic sugar supply is currently ample as factories in Guangxi begin production, although the market remains under downward pressure [9][23] - The strategy is neutral, with attention on market dynamics that could lead to new lows, while maintaining a low-level consolidation approach [10][24] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract 2605 closed at 5,534 CNY/ton, an increase of 44 CNY/ton, or 0.80% week-on-week [11][25] - The average price of needle pulp in Shandong was 5,590 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton, while Russian needle pulp averaged 5,090 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton [11][26] - Recent announcements of mill closures and maintenance in North America are expected to impact supply, while demand in Europe shows signs of improvement [13][27] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite high inventory levels in domestic ports, recent declines in stock levels indicate potential marginal demand growth for pulp as paper production capacity expands [13][27] - The strategy remains neutral, with recent price increases driven by market adjustments, although fundamental supply-demand conditions have yet to show significant improvement [14][28]

研究所 大幅反弹，进口成本端提供较强支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年12月12日 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601底部强势反弹，速涨后略有回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至12月11日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5554元/吨，较上周上涨1.20%，涨幅较上期扩大0.76个百分点；进口阔叶浆周均价4562 元/吨，较上周上涨2.42%，涨幅较上期扩大0.96个百分点。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：11月纸浆进口量环比增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年11月，我国进口纸浆324.60万吨，进口金额为1873.4百万美元，平均单价为577.14美元/吨。1月至11 ...

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 12 月 12 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 12 月外盘浆价再涨，浆纸共振期待板块回暖 投资要点： 事件：12 月外盘浆价报涨，海外浆厂供应端持续扰动 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 根据卓创资讯，智利 Arauco 公司 12 月木浆外盘报价公布，其中针叶浆银 星涨 20 美元/吨至 700 美元/吨；阔叶浆明星涨 20 美元/吨至 570 美元/吨。 近期海外针叶浆厂供应端持续扰动，12 月 2 日，Domtar 宣布将于 12 月中 旬永久关停其位于加拿大 BC 省的 Crofton 针叶浆厂（年产能 38 万吨）。芬 兰 Metsä Fibre 也宣布 Rauma 浆厂停机计划（年产能 65 万吨，计划停机时 间在 12 月 15 日至 2026 年 1 月 7 日），并宣布 2026 年大幅削减 Joutseno 针 叶浆厂产量（年产能 69 万吨）。阔叶浆自 9 月以来震荡上行，针阔价差收 窄，侧面支撑进口针叶浆价格。 券 研 究 报 告 若 26 年浆价处于上行通道，在催化纸价修复的过程中也将逐步抬升纸企的 生产成本，我们建议优选有林地/自给浆的一体化龙头，自制浆线具 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term suspension of overseas pulp mills boosts the futures price. The main contract is mainly a game between new and old warehouse receipts. The fundamentals have not formed a trend - setting force, and the pulp market is still expected to fluctuate within a wide range at a low level [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,272 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.53%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - In November, Arauco's FOB prices for wood pulp were: softwood pulp Silver Star at $680/ton (unchanged from last month), natural pulp Venus at $620/ton (up $30/ton from last month), and hardwood pulp Star at $550/ton (up $10/ton from last month). In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.1% and hardwood pulp down 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 10.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. As of November 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.51% month - on - month. The downstream paper prices adjusted slightly, and the processing cost pressure remained high. Some cultural paper mills issued price increase letters for December, boosting market confidence [8] 2. Industry News - On December 3, several ministries and commissions jointly issued the Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption. The plan aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots by 2027, and establish a high - quality development pattern of positive interaction between supply and consumption by 2030 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to pulp market data, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain oscillating weakly in the short term. The imported pulp market is expected to continue to be differentiated. Coniferous pulp is under pressure due to high inventory and financial attribute disturbances, while broadleaf pulp is relatively resistant to decline supported by costs, but weak demand will limit its upside potential [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory at Changshu Port was 572,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 3.1%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,429,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,000 tons or 2.3%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 17.6%. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports was 2,172,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.05%, showing a slight de - stocking trend [5][6]. - According to Longzhong Information on November 27, Chile's Arauco Company's November offer for broadleaf pulp Star was $550 per ton, and for natural pulp Venus was $620 per ton [6]. Market Data Market Trends - On November 28, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 202 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.49%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 28 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 33.33%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.89% [15]. Monthly Spreads - On November 28, 2025, the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43.75%. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.08% [20]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Jinyu was 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.20%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Jinyu was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.84% [27]. - The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 119.43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 57.07% and a year - on - year increase of 47.47%. The import profit of broadleaf pulp (Star) was - 29.54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165.34% and a year - on - year increase of 69.93% [30]. - The spot price of imported coniferous pulp declined further. On November 28, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.32%. The price of broadleaf pulp was expected to increase slightly due to cost support [32][35]. Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual prices falling. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp decreased, and the operating rate of domestic broadleaf pulp decreased [44][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month. In October, the global pulp shipping volume decreased seasonally month - on - month [52]. - In August 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level with high inventory, while the shipping volume of broadleaf pulp remained high but with a low inventory days [56]. - In August 2025, the total coniferous pulp exports of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month and were at a low level year - on - year. In September, Finland's exports to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Chile's coniferous pulp exports to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September 2025, the total broadleaf pulp exports of Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Brazil's exports decreased slightly month - on - month, and Uruguay's exports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. Coniferous pulp imports increased by 0.06% month - on - month, broadleaf pulp imports decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the imports of natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. Demand - The price of offset paper increased slightly this week. Due to profitability and production - sales pressure, some production lines were transferred or operated at reduced loads. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, with users mainly making rigid purchases [72]. - The price of coated paper decreased slightly this week. The supply was abundant, and the consumption was weak due to the impact of electronic media. Factories' willingness to support prices increased [76]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable. Although the cost decreased slightly, it was still at a high level. Paper mills planned to increase prices in December. The supply increased due to new capacity, and the sales were stable. Traders were mainly waiting and seeing [80]. - The price of household paper remained stable. The terminal demand was weak, and some paper enterprises faced shipment pressure. The de - stocking process slowed down, and the industry operating rate remained low [84]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [88]. Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 209,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.92% [91]. - The overall port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased slightly, Changshu Port's inventory increased, and the inventory of other ports fluctuated within a normal range [97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows that Chile's Arauco company's October quotes for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton, while quotes for broadleaf pulp Star remained flat, and quotes for natural pulp Venus also remained flat. The demand side indicates that recent price - increase letters for pulp - made paper have been issued, with only white cardboard having good implementation results, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the second batch of price - increase letters for offset paper. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory at China's mainstream pulp ports was 2173000 tons, a 3.0% increase from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5212 yuan/ton, down 0.15% day - on - day and 3.62% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and down 3.55% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day and 2.55% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.70% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.26% week - on - week; the price of broadleaf pulp Golden Needle was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The October quote for Chile's Silver Star was $680/ton, down $20/ton; the quote for Star was $540/ton, unchanged; the quote for Venus was $590/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chile's Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; the import cost of Chile's Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691000 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1318000 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2173000 tons, up 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% increase; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 209000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 446, with a quantile level of 0.946; the Silver Star basis was 676, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].