国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年11月13日，中国纸浆常熟港库存56.9万吨，较上周期增涨6.3万吨，环比上涨12.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年11月13日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存140.5万吨，较上周上涨5.0万吨，环比上涨3.7%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年11月13日，中国纸浆高栏港库存4.1万吨，较上周下降1.5万吨，环比下降26.8%。本周期高栏港库存呈现去库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. With abundant supply and inventory accumulation during the holiday, pulp prices are likely to stay weak. Affected by the overall macro - market atmosphere and its own weak fundamentals, the market is unlikely to improve in the short term [92]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of October 9, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 482,000 tons, up 30,000 tons (6.6% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1,395,000 tons, down 30,000 tons (2.1% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 54,000 tons, up 13,000 tons (31.7% MoM). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2,077,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (2.2% MoM) [5][6]. - Jilin Chenming Paper resumed production on September 28, 2025, after 11 months of shutdown. It is expected to achieve an output value of 160 million yuan by the end of 2025 and over 1 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On October 10, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 732 yuan/ton, up 15.46% MoM and 64.86% YoY; the basis of Russian Needle was 262 yuan/ton, up 42.39% MoM and 495.45% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 470 yuan/ton, up 4.44% MoM and 17.50% YoY [13]. - The 11 - 01 month - spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 13.28% MoM; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 58 yuan/ton, down 141.67% MoM [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The needle - broadleaf spread converged. On October 10, 2025, the spread of Silver Star - Goldfish was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 11.19% MoM and 12.41% YoY; the spread of Russian Needle - Goldfish was 800 yuan/ton, down 18.37% MoM and 23.81% YoY [23]. - The import profit of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On October 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 179 yuan/ton, down 209.51% MoM and 3921.24% YoY; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 165.35 yuan/ton, up 370% MoM and down 360.36% YoY [26]. - The price of softwood pulp in the Shandong market decreased compared with before the holiday. On October 10, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 2.30% MoM and 10.97% YoY [28]. - The price of hardwood pulp slightly increased due to the external price support. On October 10, 2025, the price of Goldfish was 4,250 yuan/ton, up 0.71% MoM and down 10.53% YoY [32]. - The price of natural and chemimechanical pulp: On October 10, 2025, the price of Venus was 4,850 yuan/ton, down 1.02% MoM and 10.19% YoY; the price of Kunhe was 3,700 yuan/ton, unchanged MoM and up 2.78% YoY [35]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased. On October 10, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,160 yuan/ton, up 3.57% MoM [39]. - The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased. On October 10, 2025, the daily average price of chemimechanical pulp in China was 3,825 yuan/ton, unchanged MoM and up 2.00% YoY; the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo hardwood pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 3.53% MoM and down 12.87% YoY [43]. - In August 2025, the European port inventory increased MoM, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY [46]. - In August 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment was low, and the inventory was high; the hardwood pulp shipment remained high, but the inventory days were low [48]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Finland, Chile, and the US) to China increased significantly MoM, and the performance was neutral YoY. In August, the export volume of Canadian softwood pulp to China continued to grow. In September, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased MoM [53]. - In August 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased MoM but was at a high level YoY. In September, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China increased significantly MoM, the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased MoM, and the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China continued to decline MoM [54]. - In August 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 5.01% MoM, hardwood pulp by 6.92% MoM, and chemimechanical pulp by 27.41% MoM [58]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was weakly consolidated. The supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the support for the pulp market was insufficient [62]. - The average price of coated paper fluctuated downward. Affected by the macro - environment and electronic media, the demand was weak, and the support for the pulp market was limited [66]. - The price of white cardboard slightly increased. The market supply was stable, and the market transaction gradually returned to normal [70]. - The market of tissue paper was sorted within the range, with stable prices and limited support from the raw pulp market [74]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area rebounded slightly seasonally MoM, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [78]. 3.3.4 Inventory - The futures inventory: On October 10, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 225,300 tons, down 0.36% MoM and 40.33% YoY; in factories, it was 6,400 tons, down 30.30% MoM and 76.63% YoY [81]. - The spot inventory: The sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports increased. During the holiday, the arrival volume was normal, but the shipment volume slowed down, leading to inventory accumulation [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short - term. High port inventories, slow de - stocking, and weak demand prevent significant price increases, while firm foreign offers, cost support, and potential pre - National Day restocking limit the downside [99][100] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 508,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (9.5% YoY); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,432,000 tons, up 14,000 tons (1.0% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 49,000 tons, down 9,000 tons (15.5% YoY). The total inventory of major ports was 2,112,000 tons, up 50,000 tons (2.4% YoY) [5][6] - Chile's Arauco company's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quoted price remained at $700/ton, broadleaf pulp Star increased to $540/ton, and natural pulp Venus remained at $590/ton [6] - Chenming Group's Shouguang Base No. 8 plant with an annual output of 800,000 tons of high - grade coated paper started operation. Sichuan Xianhe New Materials plans to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper production capacity [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 632 yuan/ton, down 4.24% MoM; the basis of Russian Needle was 182 yuan/ton, up 1.11% MoM; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, down 6.25% MoM [18] - **Monthly Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 298 yuan/ton, down 3.47% MoM; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 80.00% MoM [24] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The needle - broadleaf spread narrowed. The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The price of pulp futures first rose and then fell. The price of broadleaf pulp showed a narrow - range upward trend [28][34] - **Supply**: The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with some increases. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp decreased. In July, the European port inventory decreased slightly, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased seasonally. In July, the export of coniferous and broadleaf pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, etc. changed [45][54][60] - **Demand**: The demand for downstream base paper was weak. The white cardboard market was relatively better, the offset paper market was bearish, and the household paper market was weak. In August, the retail sales of terminal demand areas for pulp increased seasonally [99][84] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of major ports was at a medium level this year, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased slightly [96][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - arbitrage in the pulp market has reached a phased position, and attention should be paid to seasonal stabilization. After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [96][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.418 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.9% decline. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline [6][7]. - On September 3, 2025, the No. 1 line of the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation [7]. - On September 8, 2025, the household paper production line of the seventh factory in the Shouguang base of Chenming Paper started operation, and the base will fully resume full - load production capacity [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 12, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 660 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 77.42%; the basis of Russian Needle was 180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year increase of 410.34%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63% [15]. - On September 12, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 288 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.27%; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 66.67% [15][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,470 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% and a year - on - year increase of 19.51%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 23.75% [27]. - On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 46.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 3 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46.22% and a year - on - year increase of 99.50% [30]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in the Shandong market were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [32]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird in the Shandong market were 4,180 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,170 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [37]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported natural pulp and chemi - thermomechanical pulp such as Venus and Kunhe in the Shandong market were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of year - on - year changes [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of paper enterprises in East China were generally stable, and the purchase price of poplar wood chips of Champion Paper continued to decline [42]. - The supply of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this week. On September 11, 2025, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 133,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19.82% [46][48]. - In July 2025, the port inventory in Europe decreased slightly month - on - month; in June, the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was lower year - on - year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year; in July, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month; in August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Chile to China decreased month - on - month [55]. - In July 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, and Uruguay to China continued to be at a year - on - year high and increased month - on - month; in August, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguay to China increased significantly month - on - month [57]. - In July 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall, with coniferous pulp decreasing by 4.64% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp decreasing by 5.84% month - on - month [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - For offset paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production increased slightly, supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and the market was bearish [65]. - For coated paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production changed little, supply was abundant, consumption was difficult to improve, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [69]. - For white cardboard, both supply and demand increased, paper mills' production and sales were relatively balanced, prices increased, and the market improved [73]. - For household paper, the market price was flat, demand was weak, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and the industry's operating rate remained low [77]. - In July 2025, the retail sales in the terminal demand areas of pulp weakened seasonally month - on - month. The year - on - year growth of cultural office and daily necessities was significant, while the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines and the output of dairy products decreased year - on - year [81]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 245,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.53% [84]. - The port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a narrow de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory increased slightly, and Changshu Port's inventory decreased [93]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased for the second consecutive month, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% to 2.653 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 24.108 million tons, still a 5.0% year - on - year increase. The supply remained abundant. The shipment volume from Brazil to China in August was 647,300 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 21.5% but a year - on - year increase of 55.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 20.3%. The foreign market quotation was firm, and the cost - side support was strengthened [96]. - Demand: The performance of downstream demand in the peak season was disappointing, lacking traditional peak - season characteristics. In general, the terminal consumption capacity of the paper industry did not improve, and the demand side had a "buy - on - dips" mentality, providing limited support to the pulp market [96]. - Viewpoint: After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [97]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on contracts 01 and 05 on dips; Inter - period: Consider converting the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage to a positive arbitrage; Inter - variety: No strategy [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term pulp market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. Spot prices are suppressed by high inventory and have limited room for rebound. Later, attention should be paid to port inventory, seasonal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand orders, and the capital trend in the market under the support of rising broadleaf prices. Although Suzano's price increase and marginal improvement in demand inject rebound momentum, high inventory and delivery risks still restrict the upside space. The valuation of the futures market is neutral and slightly low. The recommended strategies are to try long positions on far - month contracts on dips [88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Shandong Sun Paper plans to invest up to 1.53 billion yuan in a 700,000 - ton high - grade packaging paper project at its Yandian plant in Shandong, with a construction period of 18 months. It also announced a 600,000 - ton bleached chemical pulp project with a total investment of up to 3.51 billion yuan [5]. - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of pulp in major Chinese ports showed a downward trend. The inventory in Changshu Port was 515,000 tons, down 15,000 tons (2.8% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.39 million tons, down 10,000 tons (0.7% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 52,000 tons, down 10,000 tons (16.1% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2.084 million tons, down 48,000 tons (2.3% MoM) [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On August 29, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, down 1.45% MoM and up 251.55% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 95.24% MoM and 139.81% YoY [12]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 326 yuan/ton, down 27.34% MoM; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 200% MoM [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The prices of imported coniferous pulp in the spot market declined slightly. The prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle all decreased compared to the previous period. The prices of imported broadleaf pulp showed a mixed trend, with some regions showing a slight increase due to cost pressure, while others were weak due to limited acceptance from downstream paper mills [29][34]. - The import profits of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The import profit of Silver Star was - 159 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 92.32% MoM and 1082.86% YoY [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased this week. The weekly output of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 872,000 tons on August 28, 2025, up 3.81% MoM [44]. - In June 2025, the inventory in European ports increased YoY and MoM, and the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY. In May, the W20 pulp inventory increased significantly [48][52]. - In June, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased MoM but was still at a low level YoY. In July, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly. In June, the export volume of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia to China decreased slightly MoM but was at a high level YoY. In July, the export volume of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to China remained at a high level YoY, while that of Uruguay decreased significantly MoM [55][57]. - In July 2025, the total import volume of Chinese pulp decreased. The import volume of coniferous pulp decreased by 4.64% MoM, and that of broadleaf pulp decreased by 5.84% MoM [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a supply - demand game, with light trading. The production of large - scale factories was basically stable, but the industry's profitability was poor, and there were situations of paper machine conversion and shutdown for maintenance. The downstream consumption was flat, and the purchasing was mainly for replenishment [64]. - The copperplate paper market was sluggish. Factories maintained stable production, but demand continued to decline due to various factors. The consumption of base paper by downstream users was slow, and the market was in a stalemate [67]. - The white cardboard market was stable. Both supply and demand increased, and large - scale manufacturers achieved a balance between production and sales. Some paper mills planned to raise prices in September [70]. - The living paper market was in a flat consolidation. The terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the industry's operating rate remained at a low level. The price of raw pulp had limited support for the price of living paper [73]. - In July, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand areas weakened seasonally MoM. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and daily necessities increased significantly YoY, while the retail sales of books and magazines and the production of dairy products decreased YoY [76]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 247,400 tons, with 229,200 tons in warehouses and 18,200 tons in factories, down 1.79% and 0% MoM respectively, and down 48.45% and 38.46% YoY respectively [78]. - The total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.084 million tons on August 29, 2025, down 2.25% MoM and up 12.71% YoY [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On July 9, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5318, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 0.64%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change [1]. - The futures price of SP2507 was 5070, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly increase of 0.44%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, with no change [1]. - The outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1]. - The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. Supply - Chilean Arauco announced a new round of July wood pulp outer - disk quotations. The face value of coniferous pulp Silver Star (no new offer after completed transactions), the face value of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, and the net price of Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton (no quantity for Chilean Star). The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Inventory - As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On July 4, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2507, and SP2509 decreased by 0.49%, 0.51%, and 0.51% respectively compared to the previous day, and SP2507 and SP2509 decreased by 0.98% and 0.55% respectively compared to the previous week. The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish were 5900, 5120, and 4020 respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.74% [1] - The foreign - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 720, 560, and 620 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.70%, 0.00%, and 0.00%. The import costs were 5884, 4587, and 5073 yuan respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.68%, 0.00%, and 0.00% [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1353 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - On July 3, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 20.5 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 million tons. The pulp port inventory was 221.3 million tons, and the delivery - warehouse inventory was 24.60 million tons. The production of main finished paper products such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed different trends [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On July 4, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 52, with a quantile level of 0.959; the basis of Silver Star was 832. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars/ton to 720 dollars/ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply increased while the price decreased [1] - Demand: The production of main finished paper products increased slightly this week, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory: As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 million tons, an increase of 5.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 3, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5306, up 0.42% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5048, up 0.76% day - on - day and down 0.24% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5094, up 0.43% day - on - day and 0.55% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.84% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - On June 20, Arauco cut the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, down 2.0% [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1] Demand - This week, the production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 26, at the 0.756 quantile; the Silver Star basis was 806, at the 0.951 quantile [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, at the 0.65 quantile; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, at the 0.187 quantile [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 2, 2025, SP2601 was 5284 with a daily increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; SP2507 was 5048 with a daily increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.24%; SP2509 was 5072 with a daily increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 2, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900 with no daily change and a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%; the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120 with no daily and year - on - year change; the spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4020 with no daily change and a year - on - year decrease of 0.74% [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In July 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 560 with no change; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 with no change [1] - **Import Costs**: In July 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4587 with no change; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 with no change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1] - **Shipment Volume to China**: In April 2025, the pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - **Domestic Production**: For broad - leaf pulp, the domestic production on June 26, 2025, was 20.6 tons; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 20.3 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.3 tons, the delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons, the double - offset paper inventory was 20.40 tons, and the copper - plate paper inventory was 7.60 tons [1] - **Finished Paper Production**: On June 26, 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 20.40 tons, copper - plate paper was 7.60 tons, tissue paper was 28.00 tons, and white cardboard was 30.30 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 2, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 48 with a quantile level of 0.797; the Silver Star basis was 828 with a quantile level of 0.959 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 2, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16 with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567 with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: On June 20, 2025, Arauco decided to lower the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars per ton to 720 dollars per ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month, showing an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1] - **Demand**: In the current week, the production of major finished papers decreased. The prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period and a 2.0% month - on - month decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [1]