1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and the risk premium usually fades within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months. If the current conflict subsides quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will show a downward trend, with structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to decline, and downstream processing links will see improved profitability [5][6]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. Gold is expected to continue with a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. Pulp futures are in an interval oscillation [7][11][12][16][18][20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts on oil prices are mostly short - term emotional premiums rather than long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the crude oil risk premium will quickly be reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. The trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - The crude oil chemical futures as a whole will follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE will see weakened cost support and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The larger the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - based olefins and methanol have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to decline, and a smaller decline compared with pure oil - chemical varieties. Downstream processing links such as plastic and rubber products will see relieved cost pressure, improved marginal profitability, and smoother price transmission [6]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythm - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: It is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. The Shanghai Composite Index is still within the 15 - minute oscillation range [7][8]. - Gold: Gold has stabilized in the daily - level oscillation. After a higher opening, it showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. It should be treated with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset in the future [11]. - Iron ore: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the influence of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come [12][13]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [16][17]. - Methanol: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for over 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities have led to a sharp increase in the expectation of import supply contraction, which is the core driver of this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as high - level oscillation [18]. - Pulp: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp enterprises' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown an interval oscillation recently [20].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,196 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,124 yuan/ton, a total decline of 1.39%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,580 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,150 - 5,160 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoint - Suzano announced price increases for eucalyptus hardwood pulp in the Asian and European - American markets in April 2026. The world's chemical pulp shipments in 20 major pulp - producing countries showed different trends in February. European port wood pulp inventory increased in February 2026, and the cumulative pulp imports from January - February 2026 decreased year - on - year. As of March 26, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased. Due to insufficient end - user orders, there was resistance to price increases for downstream base paper. The pulp market still had supply - demand contradictions and would fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term [8] Group 3: Industry News - From January - February 2026, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 1,024.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. Different types of enterprises had different profit growth rates. The paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 5.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, while the printing and recording media reproduction industry achieved a total profit of 3.59 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][24][28][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures market maintains a weak fundamental pattern, with limited upside potential in the short - term due to recent position - reduction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, 2026, SP2701 was 5528 yuan/ton, down 0.14% day - on - day and up 0.25% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5264 yuan/ton, down 0.30% day - on - day and week - on - week; SP2605 was 5182 yuan/ton, down 0.38% day - on - day and 0.12% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 30, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In March 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 4.23% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, up 3.33% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 4.19% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 5073 yuan/ton, up 3.30% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Supply - side Data - **Import Volume**: In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, down 30.86% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 147.13 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp in March 2026 (as of March 26) was 26.2 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. - **Supply Information**: In March, Chile's Arauco Company adjusted its wood pulp quotes, with coniferous pulp at 680 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5]. Demand - side Data - **Finished Paper Production**: In March 2026 (as of March 26), the production of offset paper was 21.60 tons, coated paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with stable finished paper prices and increased production this week. Price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5]. Inventory - side Data - **Port Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase. The pulp inventory at the main ports has shown a trend of accumulation, turning from two consecutive weeks of de - stocking to stocking [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory in the futures delivery warehouse was 18.6 tons [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the pulp futures market is weak, with limited room for short - term upward movement due to reduced positions, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On March 27, 2026, the futures prices of SP2701, SP2609, and SP2605 were 5536 yuan/ton, 5280 yuan/ton, and 5202 yuan/ton respectively, with day - on - day increases of 0.80%, 0.72%, and 0.89% and week - on - week increases of 0.47%, 0.15%, and 0.74% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish were 5200 yuan/ton, 5050 yuan/ton, and 4600 yuan/ton respectively, with day - on - day increases of 0.00% and week - on - week increases of 0.97%, 1.00%, and 1.10% [5] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 680 dollars/ton, 620 dollars/ton, and 620 dollars/ton respectively, with monthly decreases of - 4.23%, increases of 3.33%, and no change [5] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 5559 yuan/ton, 5073 yuan/ton, and 5073 yuan/ton respectively, with monthly decreases of - 4.19%, increases of 3.30%, and no change [5] Supply - side Data - In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.86%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147.13 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.94% [5] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.80% [5] - The domestic production volume of broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp fluctuated from February 5 to March 26, 2026 [5] Inventory - side Data - As of March 26, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 239.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.3% after two consecutive weeks of de - stocking [5] - The futures delivery warehouse inventory also changed from February 5 to March 26, 2026 [5] Demand - side Data - The production volume of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated from February 5 to March 26, 2026, and the demand for pulp was stable recently, with the price of finished paper stable and the production volume increasing this week, but the price increase letters issued by paper mills were expected to be difficult to implement [5] Supply - side News - Chile's Arauco Company adjusted its pulp quotes in March, with coniferous pulp at 880 dollars/ton, broad - leaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (supplied at 75% of the quantity), and natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums in oil prices, and the risk premium will quickly be reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical futures market will generally follow the decline, but there will be structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to price drops, and the downstream processing sector will see improved profitability [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East usually lead to short - term emotional premiums in oil prices. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. - If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will disappear. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [3][4]. II. Trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but there will be structural differentiation. - Direct oil - chemical varieties (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE) will see a weakening of cost support, and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythms - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties (such as coal - based olefins, methanol) have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to price drops, and a smaller decline compared to pure oil - chemical varieties. - The downstream processing sector (such as plastic and rubber products) will see a relief in cost pressure, an improvement in profitability, and smoother price transmission. - The speed of premium disappearance: The faster the conflict is resolved, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline. - Macroeconomic and supply - demand factors: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical analysis of various futures - **Stock index futures**: The market opened lower and closed higher today, with heavy trading volume at noon and finally closed with a mid -阳线. Technically, the 5 - minute adjustment is sufficient, and it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the early trading on Monday. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. Gold maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, and a bullish and volatile outlook is recommended for the future [12]. - **Iron ore**: The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills will resume production after the holiday, which may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, it is in a wide - range high - level shock, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [14][15]. - **Glass**: The daily melting has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday needs to be monitored. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper - level pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission mechanism, the current methanol price increase is "cost - driven". In the short term, downstream enterprises can digest cost pressure by raising prices, but if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level shock [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills are operating within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. Downstream paper mills' previously shut - down equipment has gradually resumed production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are highly volatile due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to be relatively strong with a certain de - stocking expectation, but short - term long positions are recommended due to large oil price fluctuations [31]. - The pulp market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $100.51, closing price was $94.17, with a decline of 4.00%. Brent's opening price was $107.5, closing price was $101.92, with a decline of 2.38%. SC's opening price was 781.0 yuan/barrel, closing price was 740.8 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 4.24% [7]. - The US has adopted a strategy of talking while fighting in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz transportation is interrupted, and many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production, with a cumulative reduction of about 800,000 barrels per day. It is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The US has announced a suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, but continues to increase military deployment in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [8]. - After the news of the US - Iran dialogue was released, oil prices fluctuated greatly. Iran denied having any contact with the US [8]. - Many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production. The US has lifted some oil sanctions, and IEA member countries are releasing reserves, but the effect on supply is limited [9]. Asphalt 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - For BU2606, the opening price was 4465 yuan/ton, closing price was 4532 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.68%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [30]. - The cost side supports the asphalt price. The supply is tight, and demand is improving. There is a de - stocking expectation, and short - term long positions are recommended [30][31]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The cost side is affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and oil prices are volatile but the center is rising. Spot prices of asphalt are rising [32]. - The weekly loss of asphalt devices decreased by 45,000 tons. The overall start - up rate increased by 0.87 percentage points this week, but is expected to decline next week [33]. - The production of asphalt continues to be in a loss state. The demand is expected to be released steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly [34]. Pulp 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - As of Thursday, the 05 contract of pulp closed at 5156 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from last week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.47%. The prices of imported pulp in the spot market vary [57]. - The supply - demand contradiction in the pulp market still exists, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The shipment volume of pulp from major pulp - producing countries in December showed different trends. The global chemical pulp shipment - to - capacity ratio was 97.75% in December [59]. - In February, China's pulp imports decreased. The inventory of pulp in major regions and ports increased in late March [58][62]. - The downstream market has insufficient terminal orders, and there is resistance to price increases of downstream base paper [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The weak pattern of the pulp futures fundamentals continues. The upside space for short - term position reduction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures and Spot Prices - On March 26, 2026, for pulp futures, SP2701 had a price of 5492 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.05% and a weekly -环比 of 0.66%; SP2609 was 5242 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.43% and a weekly -环比 of 0.38%; SP2605 was 5156 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.30% and a weekly -环比 of 1.02% [5]. - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 2.97%; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 3.06%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 1.10% [5]. Pulp Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.23%, and its import cost was 5559 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.19%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.33%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.30%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00% [5]. Pulp Supply - side Data - In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 30.86% compared to January; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147.13 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 2.94% [5]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a decrease of 19.80% [5]. - On March 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 26.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. Pulp Inventory - side Data - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase [5]. - The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 18.6 tons [5]. Pulp Demand - side Data - On March 26, 2026, the production of double - offset paper was 21.60 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons [5]. - The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The weak fundamental situation of pulp futures continues, with limited room for short - term rally due to position reduction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 25, 2026, SP2701 was 5550 yuan/ton, up 0.36% day - on - day and 2.93% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5318 yuan/ton, up 0.26% day - on - day and 3.02% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5224 yuan/ton, up 0.27% day - on - day and 3.65% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, down 0.95% day - on - day but up 2.97% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 3.06% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with no day - on - day change and up 1.10% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton, and Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, all with no change compared to the previous period [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, Chilean Star was 4911 yuan/ton, and Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, all with no change compared to the previous period [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, down 30.86% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 147.13 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month [5] - **Shipment Volume to China**: In January 2026, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 170 thousand tons, down 19.80% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: On March 19, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 26.3 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 24.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 229.7 tons, down 7.6 tons from the previous period and 3.2% month - on - month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 18.2 tons [5] - **Finished Paper Production**: On March 19, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.60 tons, coated paper was 7.60 tons, tissue paper was 31.00 tons, and white cardboard was 37.50 tons [5] Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: In March, Chilean Arauco adjusted its pulp quotes. Coniferous pulp was offered at 880 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (supplying 5% of the quantity), and unbleached pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently, the price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills are unlikely to be implemented [5]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot basis remained stable. Downstream spinning mills mainly made bargain purchases with average transactions. The demand in the peak season in March was good, and mills with low inventories had a certain willingness to stock up. The domestic import quota was issued, narrowing the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The national commercial inventory changed from lower to higher year - on - year compared with the end of February. The peak season in China showed a positive performance, the开机 rate continued to rise, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well digested. Recently, the sales of pure cotton yarn have slowed down. In the medium term, a bullish strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is maintained [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The market focused on Brazil's production forecast. After the rainy season, there was less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil, which was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - alcohol price ratio dropped significantly, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season was expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. From January to February, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 440,900 tons year - on - year. Both the production and sales progress were slow. The significant decline in sales was mainly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market, leading to less procurement. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress was always slow. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, merchants had high procurement enthusiasm, and the prices of some specifications of goods were relatively strong. In Shandong, there were few transactions, and merchants mainly purchased medium - to - low - grade goods. In Shaanxi and Gansu, merchants mainly looked for high - quality goods, but there were not many remaining high - quality goods. As of March 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 4.1892 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The market's trading logic focused on the demand side. After the Spring Festival, the demand in the northwest producing areas was good, and the prices were relatively strong. However, the apples in Shandong had poor quality but high acquisition prices, which might affect the sales speed. As the market started to trade Shandong goods, and the goods in Shandong had low cost - effectiveness, the price increase was weak, and funds withdrew, leading to a sharp price drop. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - rubber (NR) rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) rose significantly. The domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market rose. In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply will shift from the low - production period to the increasing - production period, with the Yunnan production area starting trial tapping first, while Hainan in China, Vietnam and other production areas are still in the suspension - tapping period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with some plants such as Dushanzi Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhua New Materials, and Shandong Weite continuing to stop for maintenance, and more plants in Zhejiang Petrochemical temporarily stopping or reducing loads. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire operating rate continued to rise last week. Domestic tire enterprises raised prices passively as costs increased. The finished - product inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline, while that of semi - steel tires continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao announced by Longzhong increased to 685,600 tons, with both the bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber in China announced by Zhuochuang continued to decline to 18,800 tons, and the upstream butadiene tower - mouth inventory in China continued to decline to 27,600 tons. Overall, geopolitical risks still exist, cost - driven factors are dominant, domestic demand continues to strengthen, external demand needs improvement, rubber supply decreases, natural rubber inventory increases, synthetic rubber inventory decreases, and market sentiment fluctuates sharply. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage can be grasped [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures rose slightly, and there was still some support near the bottom. The fundamentals of pulp were still average. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level, and there was some inventory reduction. As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 2.297 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease, and the port inventory had decreased for two consecutive weeks. The overseas quotation of pulp was strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March. The overall domestic demand for pulp was average, and the procurement of high - priced broad - leaf pulp was cautious. The prices and profits of downstream base paper were not good. In the short term, pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound oscillation [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In terms of supply, the external market quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume may be relatively low. In terms of demand, the downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, a 4.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 20, the total national port log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an 18.96% year - on - year decrease. The total national log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, the low inventory provided some support for the price. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [7]