本好告中的偏息均源于公开可获得的资料，固贸制货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性假任何保证。本报告不有成个人投资建议。也未针对个别投资者帮辣的投资目标， 免 责 声 務状況或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的值何意见或建议是否符合其特定成况，相比投资，责任自负、本报告仅向榜定客户推进、未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三 IDE 万传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险、入市需谨慎。 ITCE 贸期货 IICE超越 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月26日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5530 | -0. 18% | 1.88% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5350 | 0.00% ...

IICE超越 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月25日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月25日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5540 | -0. 25% | 2. 29% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5350 | 0.00% | 1.90% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5400 | 0.07% | 2. 86% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5150 | 0. 00% | 1.98% | | | SP2605 | 5348 | 0. 15% | 2. 81% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | 0. 00% | 0. 44% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国纸浆行业市场深度分析及未来趋势预测报告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据，林产品类别下的纸浆（进口针叶浆）2026年1月下旬市场价格为5362元/ 吨，同比下滑17.68%，环比下滑2.14%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2023年1月下旬达到最大值，有 7385.7元/吨。 2020-2026年1月下旬纸浆（进口针叶浆）市场价格变动统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月13日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月13日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5446 | -0. 04% | -0. 07% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5304 | 0. 34% | 0. 49% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5050 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5260 | 0.42% | 0. 50% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4580 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 710 | 700 | 1. 43% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5802 | 5721 | 1.42% | | (美元/吨) | 智利明星 | 590 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures lack a clear trading logic before the holiday, and the spot market transactions are stagnant, so it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: SP2601 was 5428 with a daily increase of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 1.67%; SP2609 was 5280 with a daily increase of 0.57% and a weekly decrease of 1.75%; SP2605 was 5236 with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 1.65% [5]. - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.32%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.98%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4580 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.43% [5]. - **Outer - plate Quotes (US dollars/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 710, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no month - on - month change [5]. - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5802, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830, up 3.47% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, with no month - on - month change [5]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp was 77.8, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; hardwood pulp was 135.2, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November [5]. - **Pulp Shipment Volume to China (1000 tons) in November 2025**: It was 178, up 3.00% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp production volume from January 8 - February 5, 2026, fluctuated around 24 - 25.2; Chemimechanical pulp production volume fluctuated around 23.7 - 23.9 [5]. - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 218.2, up 1.3 from the previous period and 0.6% higher month - on - month. The inventory has been increasing for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 14.2 [5]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: From January 8 - February 5, 2026, double - offset paper production volume fluctuated around 18.7 - 21.1; coated paper production volume fluctuated around 8.3 - 8.5; tissue paper production volume fluctuated around 28.66 - 29.87; kraft linerboard production volume fluctuated around 33.1 - 38.4 [5]. 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In February, Chile's Arauco Company's coniferous pulp offer was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 600 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand Side**: The pulp demand has been stable recently, the finished paper price is stable, and the production volume has increased slightly this week [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of Chinese mainstream pulp ports continued to increase, and the port sample inventory has been in an increasing trend for five consecutive weeks [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp supply side has recent disturbances again, but the demand side shows weakness. Pulp lacks a clear trading logic and is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 10, 2026, SP2601 was 5416 yuan/ton with a 0.04% daily and -0.88% weekly change; SP2609 was 5250 yuan/ton with a 0.04% daily and -1.39% weekly change; SP2605 was 5202 yuan/ton with a 0.04% daily and -1.40% weekly change [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 10, 2026, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton with no daily change and a -1.32% weekly change; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton with no daily change and a -0.98% weekly change; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4580 yuan/ton with no daily change and a -0.43% weekly change [5] - **Outer - plate Quotes**: The outer - plate quote of Chilean Silver Star in February 2026 was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with no change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, with no change [5] Supply Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November 2025; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November 2025 [5] - **Domestic Production**: As of February 5, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 24.9 tons; the production of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [5] - **Shipments to China**: In November 2025, the pulp shipments to China were 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% [5] Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 218.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.6% increase, and it has been in a cumulative inventory trend for five consecutive weeks [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.2 tons [5] Demand Data - **Finished Paper Production**: As of February 5, 2026, the production of offset paper was 21.10 tons; copperplate paper was 8.40 tons; tissue paper was 29.83 tons; white cardboard was 35.00 tons. The pulp demand side has been stable recently, and the finished paper price is stable, with a slight increase in production this week [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp supply side has recent disturbances, but the demand side shows weakness, lacking a clear trading logic, and is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: SP2601 at 5414, -0.66% day-on-day, -0.48% week-on-week; SP2609 at 5248, -0.57% day-on-day, -1.09% week-on-week; SP2605 at 5200, -0.65% day-on-day, -1.25% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star at 5250, -0.94% day-on-day, -1.32% week-on-week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle at 5050, -0.98% day-on-day, -1.94% week-on-week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish at 4580, 0.00% day-on-day, -0.43% week-on-week [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 710, 1.43% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 590, 3.51% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 620, 0.00% month-on-month [5] - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 5802, 1.42% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 4830, 3.47% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 5073, 0.00% month-on-month [5] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In Dec 2025, coniferous pulp at 77.8, 7.31% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025; hardwood pulp at 135.2, -23.40% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025 [5] - **Shipments to China (1000 tons)**: In Nov 2025, at 178, 3.00% month-on-month [5] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp production data from Jan 8, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided [5] Inventory - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 218.2, 0.6% month-on-month increase, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 14.2 [5] Demand - **Finished Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Production data of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from Dec 18, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided, with a slight increase in production this week [5] Summary - The pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this period, with port sample inventory accumulating for five consecutive weeks [5] Strategy - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply disturbances and weak demand [6]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]