CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.4万吨，较上周上涨1.3万吨，环比上涨31.7%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：207.7万吨，较上期累库4.4万吨，环比上涨2.2%，库存量在本 周期呈现累库的走势。本周期纸浆国内主流港口青岛港库存数量呈现去库走势，节日期间因天气原因，港口卸货速度减缓，导致去库；港外库存数量较港内多，港 内出货速度亦有所减缓。本周期常熟港库存呈现累库的趋势 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short - term. High port inventories, slow de - stocking, and weak demand prevent significant price increases, while firm foreign offers, cost support, and potential pre - National Day restocking limit the downside [99][100] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 508,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (9.5% YoY); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,432,000 tons, up 14,000 tons (1.0% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 49,000 tons, down 9,000 tons (15.5% YoY). The total inventory of major ports was 2,112,000 tons, up 50,000 tons (2.4% YoY) [5][6] - Chile's Arauco company's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quoted price remained at $700/ton, broadleaf pulp Star increased to $540/ton, and natural pulp Venus remained at $590/ton [6] - Chenming Group's Shouguang Base No. 8 plant with an annual output of 800,000 tons of high - grade coated paper started operation. Sichuan Xianhe New Materials plans to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper production capacity [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 632 yuan/ton, down 4.24% MoM; the basis of Russian Needle was 182 yuan/ton, up 1.11% MoM; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, down 6.25% MoM [18] - **Monthly Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 298 yuan/ton, down 3.47% MoM; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 80.00% MoM [24] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The needle - broadleaf spread narrowed. The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The price of pulp futures first rose and then fell. The price of broadleaf pulp showed a narrow - range upward trend [28][34] - **Supply**: The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with some increases. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp decreased. In July, the European port inventory decreased slightly, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased seasonally. In July, the export of coniferous and broadleaf pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, etc. changed [45][54][60] - **Demand**: The demand for downstream base paper was weak. The white cardboard market was relatively better, the offset paper market was bearish, and the household paper market was weak. In August, the retail sales of terminal demand areas for pulp increased seasonally [99][84] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of major ports was at a medium level this year, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased slightly [96][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is relatively strong, the demand is neutral, the inventory is bearish, and the valuation is relatively strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. The foreign market quotes have risen for two consecutive periods, strongly supporting domestic pulp prices. The pulp supply in the fourth quarter is expected to decline as the shipment volume from three South American countries to China decreased in August [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper has increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are running at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be confirmed [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.2%. The inventory is at a high level with a narrow - range de - stocking trend [3]. - **Valuation**: The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory indicates that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Next week, focus on whether the warehouse receipts decrease after the delivery of the 09 contract is completed [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp is stable, while the price of silver star has decreased. The price of coniferous pulp silver star is 5620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle is 4950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp goldfish is 4150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [16]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco notified that the price of coniferous pulp silver star was $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp star was $520/ton with a 50% reduction in supply, and the price of natural pulp Venus was $590/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [20]. - **Total Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total positions of pulp futures contracts were 365,839 lots, a 6.11% increase from last week. The positions of the main pulp futures contract were 187,747 lots, a 2.35% increase from last week [21]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease from the previous period. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease. The import volume of broadleaf wood chips was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities have decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the port pulp inventory was 2.062 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 245,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease [4]. - **Overseas Inventory**: The inventory of overseas pulp mills has changed. The inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers at the end of July were 47 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 50 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory at the end of the month was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4818 yuan/ton, a 2.65% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3964 yuan/ton, a 0.35% month - on - month increase [55]. - **Output**: In August 2025, the output of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the output of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year increase; the output of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.5% year - on - year increase; the output of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a 4.5% month - on - month decrease and a 5.4% year - on - year decrease [62]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, an 8.9% month - on - month decrease and an 8.23% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year decrease [69]. - **European and American Demand**: In July 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp was 27.2 days, a 1.3 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.1 - day year - on - year increase; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp was 24.1 days, a 2.5 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.8 - day year - on - year increase. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. In June 2025, the inventory - sales ratio of US paper products was 1.06, a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.05 year - on - year increase [96]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis of broadleaf Russian needle has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 inter - month spread has widened. As of September 12, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle was - 40 yuan/ton, a 52 - yuan/ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong silver star was 630 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. The 11 - 1 month spread was - 288 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [102]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 178 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [106]. - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of September 12, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China, was 1437 yuan/ton, a 55 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. In July 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [108].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年9月11日，中国纸浆常熟港库存46.4万吨，较上周期下降1.8万吨，环比下降3.7%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年9月11日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存141.8万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨0.2%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年9月11日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.8万吨，较上周下降0.5万吨，环比下降7.9%。本周期高栏港库存呈现去库的趋势。 CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term pulp market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. Spot prices are suppressed by high inventory and have limited room for rebound. Later, attention should be paid to port inventory, seasonal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand orders, and the capital trend in the market under the support of rising broadleaf prices. Although Suzano's price increase and marginal improvement in demand inject rebound momentum, high inventory and delivery risks still restrict the upside space. The valuation of the futures market is neutral and slightly low. The recommended strategies are to try long positions on far - month contracts on dips [88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Shandong Sun Paper plans to invest up to 1.53 billion yuan in a 700,000 - ton high - grade packaging paper project at its Yandian plant in Shandong, with a construction period of 18 months. It also announced a 600,000 - ton bleached chemical pulp project with a total investment of up to 3.51 billion yuan [5]. - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of pulp in major Chinese ports showed a downward trend. The inventory in Changshu Port was 515,000 tons, down 15,000 tons (2.8% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.39 million tons, down 10,000 tons (0.7% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 52,000 tons, down 10,000 tons (16.1% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2.084 million tons, down 48,000 tons (2.3% MoM) [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On August 29, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, down 1.45% MoM and up 251.55% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 95.24% MoM and 139.81% YoY [12]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 326 yuan/ton, down 27.34% MoM; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 200% MoM [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The prices of imported coniferous pulp in the spot market declined slightly. The prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle all decreased compared to the previous period. The prices of imported broadleaf pulp showed a mixed trend, with some regions showing a slight increase due to cost pressure, while others were weak due to limited acceptance from downstream paper mills [29][34]. - The import profits of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The import profit of Silver Star was - 159 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 92.32% MoM and 1082.86% YoY [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased this week. The weekly output of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 872,000 tons on August 28, 2025, up 3.81% MoM [44]. - In June 2025, the inventory in European ports increased YoY and MoM, and the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY. In May, the W20 pulp inventory increased significantly [48][52]. - In June, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased MoM but was still at a low level YoY. In July, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly. In June, the export volume of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia to China decreased slightly MoM but was at a high level YoY. In July, the export volume of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to China remained at a high level YoY, while that of Uruguay decreased significantly MoM [55][57]. - In July 2025, the total import volume of Chinese pulp decreased. The import volume of coniferous pulp decreased by 4.64% MoM, and that of broadleaf pulp decreased by 5.84% MoM [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a supply - demand game, with light trading. The production of large - scale factories was basically stable, but the industry's profitability was poor, and there were situations of paper machine conversion and shutdown for maintenance. The downstream consumption was flat, and the purchasing was mainly for replenishment [64]. - The copperplate paper market was sluggish. Factories maintained stable production, but demand continued to decline due to various factors. The consumption of base paper by downstream users was slow, and the market was in a stalemate [67]. - The white cardboard market was stable. Both supply and demand increased, and large - scale manufacturers achieved a balance between production and sales. Some paper mills planned to raise prices in September [70]. - The living paper market was in a flat consolidation. The terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the industry's operating rate remained at a low level. The price of raw pulp had limited support for the price of living paper [73]. - In July, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand areas weakened seasonally MoM. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and daily necessities increased significantly YoY, while the retail sales of books and magazines and the production of dairy products decreased YoY [76]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 247,400 tons, with 229,200 tons in warehouses and 18,200 tons in factories, down 1.79% and 0% MoM respectively, and down 48.45% and 38.46% YoY respectively [78]. - The total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.084 million tons on August 29, 2025, down 2.25% MoM and up 12.71% YoY [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp market is expected to be weakly stable with oscillations in the short - term. The high inventory on the supply side and the weak demand during the traditional off - season are putting pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of policy implementation and the arrival of goods at major ports [77][78]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Industry News - As of July 31, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 514,000 tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons (10.8% MoM); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,405,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons (3.2% MoM); at Gaolan Port, it was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (13.6% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2,105,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons (1.8% MoM) [6]. - Shandong Yinhe Ruixue Paper plans to build a 300,000 - ton pulping project, with a total investment of 2,207.94 million yuan, scheduled to start in January 2026 and be put into production in December 2027 [6]. Market Data - On August 1, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 664 yuan/ton (66% MoM, 82.42% YoY), the basis of Russian Needle was 114 yuan/ton (670% MoM, 416.67% YoY), and the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton (30.95% MoM, 37.5% YoY) [15]. - On August 1, 2025, the 09 - 11 month - spread was - 6 yuan/ton (- 106.38% MoM), and the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 224 yuan/ton (- 53.42% MoM) [20]. Fundamental Data - **Price: Softwood - Hardwood Price Difference and Import Profit** - On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,730 yuan/ton (- 2.26% MoM, 73% YoY), and the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,180 yuan/ton (- 12.59% MoM, 96.67% YoY) [29]. - On August 1, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was - 46.91 yuan/ton (- 259.84% MoM, 67.76% YoY), and the import profit of Star was 0.48 yuan/ton (- 98.63% MoM, 100.18% YoY) [35]. - **Price: Softwood Pulp** - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [36]. - **Price: Hardwood Pulp** - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,120 yuan/ton, 4,120 yuan/ton, 4,100 yuan/ton, and 4,100 yuan/ton respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [43]. - **Price: Natural Color Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp** - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no MoM change and different YoY changes [47]. - **Supply** - In June 2025, the European port inventory was 1.56 million tons (1.89% MoM, 34.72% YoY), and the global pulp shipment volume in May was 4.155 million tons (1.91% MoM, - 9.18% YoY) [49]. - In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons (4.2% YoY), including 1.435 million tons of hardwood pulp (11% MoM) [77]. - **Demand** - On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.68%, 63.2%, 55.44%, and 57.88% respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [56]. - The prices of major finished papers were at a low level this year, and the terminal consumption had no new incremental demand [78]. - The profits of white cardboard, offset paper, and coated paper decreased, while the profit of tissue paper increased [65]. - **Inventory** - On August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 235,400 tons (- 0.45% MoM, - 49.14% YoY), and in factories was 19,200 tons (0% MoM, - 42.05% YoY) [66]. - On August 1, 2025, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,405,000 tons (3.16% MoM, 29.49% YoY), at Changshu Port was 514,000 tons (- 10.76% MoM, 5.54% YoY), and the total inventory of five ports was 2,105,000 tons (- 1.77% MoM, 18.06% YoY) [74]. This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: The inventory of major ports decreased in July, and the import volume remained high. China plans to add 3.206 million tons of pulp production capacity in the second half of 2025 [77]. - **Demand**: The traditional off - season effect is prominent, with a decrease in monthly pulp consumption and low prices of base paper [78]. - **View**: The market is expected to be weakly stable with oscillations in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and the arrival of goods at major ports [78]. - **Valuation**: The basis of Silver Star in Shandong increased by 46 yuan/ton. - **Strategy**: Short - term near - month contracts are weak, far - month contracts may be stable; consider reverse arbitrage [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the pulp market may follow the market trend and undergo a corrective adjustment. The supply side is under pressure with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The demand side faces cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp. The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may improve. It is expected that the pulp market will decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of July 24, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 57.6 tons, down 3.2 tons from the previous period, a 5% MoM decrease; the inventory at Qingdao Port was 136.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from last week, a 1.0% MoM increase; the inventory at Gaolan Port was 8.1 tons, down 0.8 tons from last week, a 9.0% MoM decrease. The total inventory of China's major pulp ports was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% MoM decrease [6]. - In June 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.1% MoM decrease and a 23.3% YoY increase; the import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 143.5 tons, a 11.0% MoM increase and an 18.9% YoY increase; the import volume of softwood chips was 7.2 tons, a 234.9% MoM increase and a 125.9% YoY increase; the import volume of hardwood chips was 129.2 tons, a 0.2% MoM increase and a 1.3% YoY decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 400 yuan/ton, a 36.31% MoM decrease and a 7.41% YoY decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 20 yuan/ton, a 350.00% MoM decrease and a 162.50% YoY decrease; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 420 yuan/ton, a 32.26% MoM decrease and a 5.00% YoY increase [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the 09 - 11 spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 193.75% MoM increase; the 11 - 01 spread was - 146 yuan/ton, a 19.78% MoM increase [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased by 2.75% MoM and increased by 86.32% YoY; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased by 12.50% MoM and 145.45% YoY. The import profit of silver star pulp increased by 2804% MoM and 11502% YoY; the import profit of star pulp increased by 277.35% MoM and 103.50% YoY [24][32]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both MoM and YoY; the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance, with the softwood pulp import volume decreasing by 6.07% MoM and the hardwood pulp import volume increasing by 10.96% MoM [47][50]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased slightly, while that of tissue paper increased slightly. The profits of white cardboard, tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased to varying degrees [55][65]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased, and the spot inventory of major ports decreased slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.65 tons, a 0.11% MoM decrease and a 50.50% YoY decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.92 tons, a 0.52% MoM decrease and a 40.25% YoY decrease [69]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: The supply side pressure is solidified, with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The major port inventory decreased slightly this period [79]. - **Demand**: The demand side has cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp [79]. - **View**: The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak. The divergence between futures and spot prices may improve, and the pulp market may decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. - **Valuation**: The basis of silver star pulp in Shandong decreased by 64 yuan/ton [79]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for a single - sided trade; use a reverse spread strategy for the 9 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On July 9, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5318, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 0.64%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change [1]. - The futures price of SP2507 was 5070, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly increase of 0.44%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, with no change [1]. - The outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1]. - The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. Supply - Chilean Arauco announced a new round of July wood pulp outer - disk quotations. The face value of coniferous pulp Silver Star (no new offer after completed transactions), the face value of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, and the net price of Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton (no quantity for Chilean Star). The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Inventory - As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp is expected to run weakly, and it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On June 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5264 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% and a day - on - week decrease of 0.04%; SP2507 was 5060 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 3.62%; SP2509 was 5066 with a day - on - day decrease of 0.08% and a week - on - week decrease of 3.58% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5950 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%; Russian Needle was 5120 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 2.48%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4050 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 1.22% [1]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD)**: In June 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; Chilean Star was 560 with no change; Chilean Venus was 620 with no change [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Star was 4587 with no change; Chilean Venus was 5073 with no change [1]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Imports**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on June 26, 2025, was 20.6 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.3 tons [1]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% [1]. - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On June 26, 2025, the delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1]. 3.5 Demand - Side Data - **Finished - Paper Production**: In the week of June 27, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.40 tons; copperplate paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 28.00 tons; white cardboard was 30.30 tons. The production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. 3.6 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 54 with a quantile level of 0.809; the Silver Star basis was 884 with a quantile level of 0.975 [1]. - **Import Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 66 with a quantile level of 0.739; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 537 with a quantile level of 0.189 [1].