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纸浆周度报告:国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260329
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-29 09:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the imported pulp spot market is expected to continue the stalemate, with pulp prices in a dilemma. On one hand, high foreign offers and traders' holding costs limit the downside space; on the other hand, weak downstream demand and pressured margins limit the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in foreign offers, port destocking rhythm, and downstream base paper price transmission [97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of March 26, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 623,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,000 tons or 24.4%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,576,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons or 1.1%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 70,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons or 4.5%. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2,395,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,000 tons or 4.3% [5][6]. - Suzano will increase the offer of eucalyptus pulp in the Asian market by $20/ton and in the European and American markets by $50/ton in April 2026, effective April 1st [6]. - Arauco adjusted its March pulp offers, with softwood pulp at $680/ton, hardwood pulp Star at $620/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at $620/ton [7]. - The environmental impact assessment of the 5.57 - million - ton expansion project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The project has a construction period of 6 years and an investment of 17.6 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On March 27, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was - 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 85.71%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.32%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 150 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [14]. - On March 27, 2026, the 05 - 07 month spread was not provided, and the 07 - 09 month spread was - 42 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27.59%; the 09 - 11 month spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.00% [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish and between Russian Needle and Goldfish remained stable. On March 27, 2026, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 600 yuan/ton, and the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [23][25]. - The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp improved week - on - week. On March 27, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 427 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.66%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 324 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.24% [28]. - The price of the main pulp contract rose from a low level. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased with the market, but downstream acceptance of high prices was low. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp rose slightly, but downstream replenishment was cautious [30][35]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood were 5,200 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,450 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.93% [33]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,600 yuan/ton, 4,600 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 1.10%, and 1.11% [37]. - On March 27, 2026, the prices of natural pulp (Venus) and chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) were 4,800 yuan/ton and 3,800 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of some paper enterprises in East China increased this week. On March 27, 2026, the purchase prices of eucalyptus chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper and poplar chips by Wuzhou Special Paper were 1,260 yuan/ton and 1,340 yuan/ton respectively [42][44]. - The supply of domestic pulp decreased this period. On March 26, 2026, the daily average price of Chinese chemimechanical pulp was 3,816.67 yuan/ton, and the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo's hardwood pulp was 4,850 yuan/ton [46][48]. - In February 2026, the pulp port inventory in Europe increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In January 2026, the global pulp outbound volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [50][52]. - In January 2026, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp decreased, the shipment volume increased, and the inventory days dropped to a year - on - year low [54][56]. - In January 2026, the export volume of softwood pulp from five countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, Sweden, and the United States) to China continued to increase month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased seasonally [58][60]. - In January 2026, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased month - on - month, while that of Chile decreased [64][63]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of Chinese softwood pulp decreased by 6.96% year - on - year, and that of hardwood pulp decreased by 5.04% year - on - year [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market declined this period. Supply increased, but demand was weak, and the market was dull [70]. - The domestic coated paper price declined slightly this period. Supply increased, but demand was weak, and the market was dull [74]. - The white cardboard price declined this period. Supply increased, but the cost pressure from imported wood pulp made large manufacturers maintain a price - increasing attitude [78]. - The tissue paper price declined this period. Demand was weak, and the cost support from pulp was not strong [82]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [88]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On March 27, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 170,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32%; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 15,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.76% [89]. - As of March 27, 2026, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,576,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the inventory at Changshu Port was 623,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.35%; the inventory at Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao Ports was 196,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.45%. The total inventory of the five ports was 2,395,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.27% [94].
国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260308
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-08 11:55
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week's pulp view is oscillating with an upward bias. The supply side has high port inventories and ongoing supply pressure, but the inventory accumulation is less than the same period last year, with relatively controllable pressure. The demand side sees the downstream start - up rate gradually increasing, and there are price - increase expectations for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp market. Currently, the pulp market has cost - support and unmet demand. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a limited direct impact but an indirect impact on the domestic pulp market, and its long - term impact depends on the duration of the closure. It is recommended to buy on dips for unilateral trading and observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of March 5, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 656,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period and a 4.2% month - on - month decrease. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,562,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons and a 2.8% month - on - month increase. Gaolan Port's inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons and an 11.3% month - on - month increase. The total inventory of the main pulp ports in China was 2,408,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons and a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - On March 3, 2026, the Joutseno pulp mill of the Finnish group Stora Enso will be shut down on March 31, 2026, with an annual production capacity of 690,000 tons of softwood pulp [6]. - On March 3, 2026, Zhanjiang Chenming's chemical pulp production line resumed production. Chile's Arauco's March softwood pulp offer was $710/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star was $620/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was $620/ton, unchanged [7]. Market Data - **Market Trends** - On March 6, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was - 22 yuan/ton, with a 650% month - on - month decrease compared to February 27, 2026, and a 103.43% year - on - year decrease. The basis of Russian Needle was - 222 yuan/ton, with a 52.05% month - on - month decrease and a 105.56% year - on - year decrease. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with a 33.33% month - on - month increase and a 73.33% year - on - year decrease [14]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread** - On March 6, 2026, the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 22 yuan/ton, with a 31.25% month - on - month increase compared to February 27, 2026. The 07 - 09 monthly spread was - 24 yuan/ton, with a 29.41% month - on - month increase [19]. Fundamental Data - **Price** - **Needle - Broadleaf Price Difference and Import Profit** - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish widened, while the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish remained stable. On March 6, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 700 yuan/ton, with a 7.69% month - on - month increase and a 61.11% year - on - year decrease. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a 52.38% year - on - year decrease [24][26]. - The import profit of softwood pulp improved month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp decreased. On March 6, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 317.88 yuan/ton, with a 17.25% month - on - month increase and a 74.20% year - on - year decrease. The import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 315.89 yuan/ton, with an 81.90% month - on - month decrease and a 50.64% year - on - year decrease [31][33]. - **Softwood Pulp** - The price of the main pulp contract rose and then narrowed. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased slightly compared to before the holiday, but the actual trading atmosphere was relatively light [35]. - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, and Russian Needle were 5300 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [37]. - **Hardwood Pulp** - The FOB quotation of hardwood pulp was relatively firm, but the domestic market demand recovery was limited. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp declined weakly [39]. - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4600 yuan/ton, 4600 yuan/ton, 4580 yuan/ton, and 4500 yuan/ton respectively [41]. - **Natural Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp** - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4850 yuan/ton and 3800 yuan/ton respectively [44]. - **Supply** - **Wood Chip Price** - Before the holiday, the wood - chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased [46]. - On March 6, 2026, the wood - chip purchase prices of eucalyptus clean chips - Liansheng Pulp and Paper, poplar clean chips - Wuzhou Special Paper, etc. were 1160 yuan/ton, 1300 yuan/ton, etc. respectively [48]. - **Domestic Pulp** - The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased, and the supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp recovered [50]. - On March 5, 2026, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3883.33 yuan/ton, and the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo Paper's hardwood pulp (Senbo) was 4850 yuan/ton [52]. - **European Port Inventory and Global Pulp Outbound Volume** - In January 2026, the European pulp port inventory decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In November 2025, the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [54]. - **W20 Shipment Volume and Inventory** - In November 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was low, and the inventory was high. The hardwood pulp inventory was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [58]. - **Overseas Softwood Pulp Export Volume** - In December 2025, the softwood pulp export volume of four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month. In January 2026, the softwood pulp export volume of Chile to China remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [62]. - **Overseas Hardwood Pulp Export Volume** - In January 2026, the hardwood pulp export volume of four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the hardwood pulp export volume of Brazil and Uruguay to China increased month - on - month [68]. - **Pulp Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The softwood pulp imports increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the hardwood pulp imports decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the imports of natural and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [70]. - **Demand** - **Offset Paper** - The domestic offset paper market was range - bound, and the trading was still dull. Some factories planned to raise prices, but the price increase was not effectively transmitted to the terminal. The social inventory of offset paper decreased month - on - month [74]. - **Coated Paper** - The domestic coated paper price increased slightly. The supply was abundant, but the demand was not significantly boosted. Some factories planned to raise prices, but the price increase was blocked at the terminal [78]. - **White Cardboard** - The white cardboard market was dull. Although large factories promoted price increases, the increase was reduced by 100 yuan/ton compared to the original plan. The main reasons were high paper - mill inventory, high trader inventory, and expected changes in the supply pattern [82]. - **Household Paper** - The household paper market price remained stable, and the trading atmosphere was light. Some paper enterprises in the north signaled price increases, but the industry was mostly waiting and watching. The raw - material pulp market fluctuated, and the hardwood pulp price was stable, providing little support for the household paper price [86]. - **Terminal Demand** - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the dairy production, increased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [92]. - **Inventory** - **Futures Inventory** - On March 6, 2026, the total number of pulp warehouse receipts (warehouse) was 138,300 tons, with a 0.22% month - on - month increase and a 59.74% year - on - year decrease. The total number of pulp warehouse receipts (factory warehouse) was 16,000 tons, with a 6.67% month - on - month increase and a 25.02% year - on - year decrease [93]. - **Spot Inventory** - The main pulp port inventory continued to accumulate. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to accumulate, while Changshu Port's inventory decreased. On March 6, 2026, the inventories of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and the combined Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao Ports were 1,562,000 tons, 656,000 tons, and 190,000 tons respectively, with the total inventory of the five ports being 2,408,000 tons [99].
国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260301
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-01 10:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pulp market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern with limited upside and downside space. The cost support of hardwood pulp and the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation pressure at ports limit the downside space, while softwood pulp is restricted by futures market fluctuations and abundant supply, and the lack of substantial increase in downstream procurement restricts the upside. In the medium - term, the key to pulp price trends lies in the actual recovery of downstream demand after March. If the paper mill's operating rate rises steadily and terminal orders improve, restocking demand is expected to be gradually released. Considering the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the shipping market, the market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards following market sentiment [99][100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of February 26, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port in China was 685,000 tons, an increase of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a 14.5% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.52 million tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous week, a 5.7% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory at Gaolan Port was 62,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a 93.8% month - on - month increase. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.401 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons from the previous period, a 9.4% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - In January 2026, the total wood pulp inventory at European ports decreased by 14.7% month - on - month and 10.9% year - on - year, from 1.5086 million tons at the end of December to 1.2865 million tons [7]. - Yueyang City government and China Paper signed a cooperation intention for a 30.3 - billion - yuan project to build a 2 - million - ton special cellulose and 450,000 - ton household paper production base [6]. - Jindong Paper's 280,000 - ton special paper project is expected to be put into production in mid - April, which will enhance the company's competitiveness in the high - end special paper market [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On February 27, 2026, the basis of silver star pulp was 4 yuan/ton, a 140% month - on - month increase; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 146 yuan/ton, a 30.48% month - on - month increase; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, a 25% month - on - month decrease [14]. - On February 27, 2026, the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 45.45% month - on - month decrease; the 07 - 09 month - spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a 54.55% month - on - month decrease [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased, while the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased. On February 27, 2026, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 650 yuan/ton, a 2.99% month - on - month decrease; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 500 yuan/ton, a 6.38% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp slightly recovered. On February 27, 2026, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was - 384 yuan/ton, a 3.43% month - on - month increase; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was - 173 yuan/ton, a 15.36% month - on - month increase [27][29]. - The price of the main pulp contract rose and then fell slightly. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased slightly compared with before the Spring Festival, but the actual transaction was light. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp increased due to cost pressure and tight supply, but the downstream replenishment was not active [31][35]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased before the festival. On February 28, 2026, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,160 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [42][44]. - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp recovered this period. On February 26, 2026, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,883.33 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the weekly production was 86,000 tons, a 1.18% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In January 2026, the pulp inventory at European ports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month; in November 2025, the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline [50][52]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [54][56]. - In December 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the US) to China increased month - on - month; in January 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China remained flat month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [58][60]. - In December 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China increased significantly month - on - month; in January 2026, the export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month, while the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [64][66]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were polarized. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [66][68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the trading was gradually recovering. The supply was abundant, but the terminal consumption was weak, and the downstream replenishment was average [70][72]. - The domestic coated paper market remained stable, lacking directional breakthroughs. The supply was sufficient, but the demand was weak, and the paper mills' inventory increased [74][76]. - The white cardboard market was dull. The cost supported the market, the supply recovered quickly, but the demand was weak, and the paper mills' inventory accumulated [78][80]. - The price of household paper was stable, the market trading was average, the terminal demand was poor, but the major paper mills signaled price increases, and the industry's operating rate was expected to improve [82][84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the production of dairy products, increased significantly month - on - month; the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. Year - on - year, the retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level [88][87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On February 27, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the warehouse was 138,000 tons, a 1.15% month - on - month decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the factory was 15,000 tons, with no month - on - month change [89]. - The port inventory was at a historical high, and the inventory of mainstream port samples in China increased this period. After the Spring Festival, the inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port continued to increase [94][96].
纸浆数据日报-20260227
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 05:03
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp demand side has been stable recently, with stable finished - paper prices and a slight increase in production this week. The inventory at the inventory side continued to accumulate in this cycle, with the port sample inventory showing an accumulation trend for six consecutive weeks. Coniferous pulp lacks positive factors but is supported by mill costs at the bottom, and is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,400 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On February 26, 2026, SP2601 was 5,530 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day and up 1.88% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5,364 yuan/ton, down 0.67% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5,312 yuan/ton, down 0.67% day - on - day and up 1.45% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On February 26, 2026, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,350 yuan/ton (0% day - on - day, 1.90% week - on - week), Russian Needle was 5,150 yuan/ton (0% day - on - day, 1.98% week - on - week), and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,600 yuan/ton (0% day - on - day, 0.44% week - on - week) [5]. Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: In February 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 US dollars/ton (0% month - on - month), Chilean Star was 600 US dollars/ton (up 1.69% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 620 US dollars/ton (0% month - on - month) [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,802 yuan/ton (0% month - on - month), Chilean Star was 4,911 yuan/ton (up 1.68% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 5,073 yuan/ton (0% month - on - month) [5]. Supply - Side Data - **Imports**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 77.8 million tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; broad - leaf pulp imports were 135.2 million tons, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November. The pulp shipment volume to China in December 2025 was 212 thousand tons, up 19.10% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production**: On February 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.8 million tons [5]. Inventory Data - **Pulp Port Inventory**: On February 26, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 240.1 million tons, showing an accumulation trend [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On February 26, 2026, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 15.2 million tons [5]. Demand - Side Data - **Finished - Paper Production**: On February 26, 2026, the production of offset paper was 17.50 million tons, copperplate paper was 7.40 million tons, tissue paper was 23.98 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 million tons [5]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Summary and Strategy - **Summary**: The supply side: Arauco's February coniferous pulp offer was flat, broad - leaf pulp Star increased, and natural pulp Venus was flat. The demand side was stable, and the inventory side continued to accumulate. - **Strategy**: Coniferous pulp is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,400 [5].
纸浆数据日报-20260226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-26 03:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp demand side has been stable recently, with stable finished paper prices and a slight increase in production this week. The inventory side shows a continuous inventory accumulation trend, with the port sample inventory showing an inventory accumulation trend for six consecutive weeks. The strategy suggests that softwood pulp lacks positive factors but has cost support from pulp mills, and is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,400 [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: SP2601 is 5,540 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day and up 2.29% week - on - week; SP2609 is 5,400 yuan/ton, up 0.07% day - on - day and up 2.86% week - on - week; SP2605 is 5,348 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day and up 2.81% week - on - week [5]. - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.98% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish is 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.44% week - on - week [5]. Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; Chilean Star is 600 dollars/ton, up 1.69% month - on - month; Chilean Venus is 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star is 5,802 yuan/ton, unchanged; Chilean Star is 4,911 yuan/ton, up 1.68% month - on - month; Chilean Venus is 5,073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Supply - side Data - Import volume: In December 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; hardwood pulp import volume was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November [5]. - Shipment volume to China: In December 2025, it was 212 thousand tons, up 19.10% month - on - month [5]. - Domestic production: For hardwood pulp, the production volume in February 12, 2026 was 25.2 tons; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.8 tons [5]. Inventory Data - Pulp port inventory: As of February 12, 2026, it was 219.5 tons, up 1.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.6% increase [5]. - Futures delivery warehouse inventory: As of February 12, 2026, it was 15.1 tons [5]. Demand - side Data - Finished paper production: For offset paper, the production volume was 20.00 tons; for coated paper, it was 8.40 tons; for white cardboard, it was 27.73 tons; for tissue paper, it was 35.00 tons [5].
纸浆数据日报-20260210
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 07:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp supply side has recent disturbances, but the demand side shows weakness, lacking a clear trading logic, and is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: SP2601 at 5414, -0.66% day-on-day, -0.48% week-on-week; SP2609 at 5248, -0.57% day-on-day, -1.09% week-on-week; SP2605 at 5200, -0.65% day-on-day, -1.25% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star at 5250, -0.94% day-on-day, -1.32% week-on-week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle at 5050, -0.98% day-on-day, -1.94% week-on-week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish at 4580, 0.00% day-on-day, -0.43% week-on-week [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 710, 1.43% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 590, 3.51% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 620, 0.00% month-on-month [5] - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 5802, 1.42% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 4830, 3.47% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 5073, 0.00% month-on-month [5] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In Dec 2025, coniferous pulp at 77.8, 7.31% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025; hardwood pulp at 135.2, -23.40% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025 [5] - **Shipments to China (1000 tons)**: In Nov 2025, at 178, 3.00% month-on-month [5] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp production data from Jan 8, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided [5] Inventory - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 218.2, 0.6% month-on-month increase, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 14.2 [5] Demand - **Finished Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Production data of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from Dec 18, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided, with a slight increase in production this week [5] Summary - The pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this period, with port sample inventory accumulating for five consecutive weeks [5] Strategy - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply disturbances and weak demand [6]
纸浆周度报告-20260208
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-08 14:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to be weak in the short - term. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market enters a seasonal lull under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The increase in the cost of broad - leaf pulp in the international market cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market due to weak demand. The price of softwood pulp is dominated by the futures market sentiment, and the actual downstream demand in the spot market is also relatively weak, putting pressure on the pulp price. With the shrinking demand, the price - holding strategy in the international market has not been smoothly transmitted to the domestic market, and buyers are dominant in the current supply - demand relationship, so the weak demand suppresses the pulp market. Before the festival, the production activities in the downstream base paper market slow down, and the near - stagnant procurement market makes the price lack support [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 612,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.41 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%. The sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.182 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend for five weeks [5][6]. - Arauco of Chile offered softwood pulp at $710 per ton in February, unchanged; broad - leaf pulp Star at $600 per ton, up $10 per ton; and unbleached pulp Venus at $620 per ton, unchanged [6]. - Wuzhou Special Paper (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd.'s project environmental impact report solicitation draft has been completed [7]. - On February 2, Guanhao High - tech responded to investors' concerns. The land acquisition of Hongta Renheng's Qianshan Factory and the core construction projects are in progress. The 400,000 - ton chemi - mechanical pulp project in Zhanjiang Zhongzhi was put into production ahead of schedule, and the self - made pulp substitution rate is close to 80%. The pilot test line of special fiber composite materials was put into trial operation in December 2025 [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On February 6, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was 66 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 230.00%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.67%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17.65% [15]. - On February 6, 2026, the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%; the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38.89% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was stable this week, while the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish narrowed. On February 6, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 520 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.45% [24][26]. - The import profit of softwood and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline this period. On February 6, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 363.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 218.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 73.96% [31][32]. - The price of the main pulp contract was weak and fluctuating. The spot price of imported softwood pulp declined this week. The downstream base paper price was stable, and the spot price of imported broad - leaf pulp declined [34][36]. - On February 6, 2026, the price of Venus was 4,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price of Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [43]. - The price of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp decreased slightly this period, and the supply increased. On February 5, 2026, the weekly operating load rate of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%; the weekly output was 86,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.18% [48][50]. - European pulp port inventory increased in December 2025, and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline in November 2025 [53]. - In November 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of broad - leaf pulp was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [55]. - The export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased significantly in December 2025. The export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased significantly in November 2025 [59][62]. - The export volume of broad - leaf pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China increased significantly in December 2025. The export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp to China decreased in January 2026 [66]. - China's pulp imports were divided in December 2025. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached and chemi - mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was slightly adjusted this period, with a weakening trading atmosphere. The supply of goods in the market was abundant, and the demand from the consumer side was weak [72]. - The price of the domestic coated paper market was stable this period, facing the dual pressures of high costs and weak demand, with a weakening trading atmosphere. The supply of goods in the market was abundant, and the downstream consumption was flat [76]. - The price of the white cardboard market was mainly stable this period. The production of white cardboard increased by 5.74% month - on - month, which had a negative impact on the price. The demand decreased, and the paper mills faced increased production and sales pressure and inventory risks [80]. - The price of the household paper market was mainly stable, with a slightly weak trading atmosphere. As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream stocking of household paper was coming to an end, and the demand improvement was limited [84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, tobacco and alcohol products, and the output of dairy products increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a year - on - year high [90]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On February 6, 2026, the total number of pulp warehouse receipts was 146,400 tons, including 131,400 tons in warehouses and 15,000 tons in factories. The number of factory warehouse receipts increased by 36.36% month - on - month [91]. - The port inventory was at a moderately high level this year, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, and the inventory in Changshu Port decreased slightly [98].
纸浆数据日报-20260205
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 03:00
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Recently, the supply side of pulp has been disrupted again, but the demand side is weak. Pulp lacks a clear trading logic and is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On February 4, 2026, the SP2601 futures price was 5520 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day and down 1.15% week - on - week. The SP2609 spot price was 5374 yuan/ton, up 0.94% day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.12% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.92% week - on - week. The price of broadleaf pulp Gold Fish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [5]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: The external quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month. Its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month. The import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 (in ten - tons), up 3.00% month - on - month. As of January 29, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 24 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, and day - card paper decreased, while the production of tissue paper increased slightly. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 tons, an increase of 10.1 tons from the previous period, a 4.9% increase. The inventory has continued to accumulate in this cycle, and the port sample inventory has shown a trend of accumulation for four consecutive weeks [5].
国泰君安期货能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260201
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-01 11:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The current core contradiction in the market remains clear, with the supply - demand fundamentals maintaining a state of light rigid demand. The port inventory pressure on the supply side persists, while the demand side shows no improvement. Downstream paper mills' procurement remains weak, and the market lacks upward drivers [100]. - It is predicted that the pulp market will operate within a range. Attention should be paid to the overall market trend, changes in the inventory of major ports, and the purchasing sentiment of the downstream paper market [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 29, 2026, the pulp inventories at Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China all increased, with the mainstream port sample inventory reaching 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period, and the inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5][6]. - On January 28, the second - phase production line of Chenming Group's Zhanjiang Base resumed full - load production, with an annual capacity of 190,000 tons [6]. - Suzano announced a price increase of $10 per ton in the Asian market and $30 per ton in the European and American markets to $1,280 per ton in February 2026 [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On January 30, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was 20 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900.00%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.35%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.33% [15]. - On January 30, 2026, the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 22 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31.25%; the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50.00% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spreads between Silver Star - Goldfish and Russian Needle - Goldfish narrowed. On January 30, 2026, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 720 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% [24][26]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp continued to decline. On January 30, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 350 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.61%; the import profit of broad - leaved pulp (Star) was - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.09% [30][31]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp was weak and consolidating, and the price of imported broad - leaved pulp was weakening. The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp also showed different degrees of change [33][35][40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [42]. - The price of domestic broad - leaved pulp decreased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp decreased. On January 29, 2026, the weekly production of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased by 5.13% month - on - month, and the weekly production of broad - leaved pulp remained unchanged [46][48]. - In November 2025, the European pulp port inventory and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [50]. - In November 2025, the W20 coniferous pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory; the broad - leaved pulp inventory was at a high level, the shipment decreased, and the inventory days returned to the year - on - year high [54]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month; in November 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased significantly month - on - month [58][61]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broad - leaved pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month; in December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaved pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [65]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The coniferous pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the broad - leaved pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the natural color and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [67][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic double - offset paper market was narrowly sorted and the trading atmosphere was dull. The copper - plate paper market price was stable, but the trading atmosphere was weak. The white - cardboard market price was stable, with reduced production and light demand. The household paper market price was stable, with weak terminal demand and high inventory pressure [71][75][79][83]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the dairy product output increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [89]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of five ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 216.9 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88% and a year - on - year increase of 23.38%. The inventory was at a moderately high level within the year and continued to accumulate [96][97]. - On January 30, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 14.24 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.58% [90].
纸浆周度报告-20260201
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-01 10:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The current core contradiction in the market remains clear, with the supply - demand fundamentals maintaining a state of light and rigid demand. The port inventory pressure on the supply side persists, while the demand side shows no improvement. Downstream paper mills' procurement remains weak, and the market lacks upward drivers [101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 29, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 625,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,000 tons or 11.8%. The inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons or 1.6%. The inventory at Gaolan Port was 45,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons or 7.1%. The total inventory of the mainstream port samples in China was 2.169 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons or 4.9%, and the inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5][6]. - On January 28, the second - phase production line of Chenming's Zhanjiang Base resumed full - load production, with an annual production capacity of 190,000 tons, mainly producing high - quality cultural paper and specialty paper [6]. - Suzano announced price increases in February 2026, with a $10 increase in the Asian market and a $30 increase in the European and American markets to $1,280 [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - The basis of Silver Star on January 30, 2026, was 20 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 95.82%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 581.82%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.00% [15]. - The 03 - 05 month - spread on January 30, 2026, was - 22 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. The 05 - 07 month - spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50.00% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish and between Russian Needle and Goldfish both decreased this week. On January 30, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 720 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 54.17% [24][26]. - The import profits of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline this period. On January 30, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 350.27 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 543.32%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 125.43 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 182.56% [31]. - The price of coniferous pulp was weakly consolidating. On January 30, 2026, the prices of Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in Shandong were 5,320 yuan/ton, 5,500 yuan/ton, and 5,550 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.48%, 1.79%, and 1.77% and year - on - year decreases of 19.39%, 17.29%, and 17.16% [34]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp was weakening. On January 30, 2026, the prices of Goldfish, Star, and others in Shandong were around 4,600 yuan/ton, with month - on - month decreases of about 1.08% and year - on - year decreases of about 5 - 6% [36][38]. - On January 30, 2026, the price of Venus was 4,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.61%. The price of Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 7.04% [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip procurement price of paper mills in East China remained stable this week [43]. - The price of domestic broad - leaf pulp decreased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp decreased. On January 29, 2026, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 132,000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 17.86%. The weekly production of chemimechanical pulp was 85,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16% [47][49]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline. The port inventory in Europe was 1.389 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.80%. The global pulp shipping volume was 4.357 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.90% [51][53]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of broad - leaf pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [55]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month [59][62]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month, and the export volume of Chilean and Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp to China also increased [66]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were polarized. The import volume of coniferous pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the imports of unbleached and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic double - offset paper market was narrowly sorted this period, with a dull trading atmosphere. The industry's profitability was under pressure, and paper mills were reluctant to lower prices. The social inventory of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month [72]. - The domestic coated paper market price was stable this period, with a weakening trading atmosphere. Factory production was under pressure due to high costs, and downstream demand was weak [76]. - The white cardboard market price was mainly stable this period. The cost pressure was relieved, and the profitability of paper mills improved. The production volume decreased month - on - month, and the demand was expected to be dull [80]. - The price of the household paper market remained stable this week, with little change in the overall trading activity. The terminal demand was difficult to improve significantly, and the support of raw pulp prices for household paper prices was weak [84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [90]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On January 30, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 142,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.58% [91]. - The port inventory was at a moderately high level within the year, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China continued to increase this period. On January 30, 2026, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.39 million tons, the inventory at Changshu Port was 625,000 tons, and the total inventory of the five ports was 2.169 million tons [98].