国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆常熟港库存68.5万吨，较上周期增涨8.7万吨，环比增涨14.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存152.0万吨，较上周上涨8.2万吨，环比上涨5.7%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆高栏港库存6.2万吨，较上周上涨3.0万吨，环比上涨93.8%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：240.1万吨，较上期累库20.6万吨，环比上涨9.4%，春节后主 ...

本好告中的偏息均源于公开可获得的资料，固贸制货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性假任何保证。本报告不有成个人投资建议。也未针对个别投资者帮辣的投资目标， 免 责 声 務状況或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的值何意见或建议是否符合其特定成况，相比投资，责任自负、本报告仅向榜定客户推进、未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三 IDE 万传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险、入市需谨慎。 ITCE 贸期货 IICE超越 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月26日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5530 | -0. 18% | 1.88% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5350 | 0.00% ...

IICE超越 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月25日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月25日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5540 | -0. 25% | 2. 29% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5350 | 0.00% | 1.90% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5400 | 0.07% | 2. 86% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5150 | 0. 00% | 1.98% | | | SP2605 | 5348 | 0. 15% | 2. 81% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | 0. 00% | 0. 44% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp supply side has recent disturbances, but the demand side shows weakness, lacking a clear trading logic, and is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: SP2601 at 5414, -0.66% day-on-day, -0.48% week-on-week; SP2609 at 5248, -0.57% day-on-day, -1.09% week-on-week; SP2605 at 5200, -0.65% day-on-day, -1.25% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star at 5250, -0.94% day-on-day, -1.32% week-on-week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle at 5050, -0.98% day-on-day, -1.94% week-on-week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish at 4580, 0.00% day-on-day, -0.43% week-on-week [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 710, 1.43% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 590, 3.51% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 620, 0.00% month-on-month [5] - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 5802, 1.42% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 4830, 3.47% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 5073, 0.00% month-on-month [5] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In Dec 2025, coniferous pulp at 77.8, 7.31% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025; hardwood pulp at 135.2, -23.40% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025 [5] - **Shipments to China (1000 tons)**: In Nov 2025, at 178, 3.00% month-on-month [5] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp production data from Jan 8, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided [5] Inventory - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 218.2, 0.6% month-on-month increase, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 14.2 [5] Demand - **Finished Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Production data of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from Dec 18, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided, with a slight increase in production this week [5] Summary - The pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this period, with port sample inventory accumulating for five consecutive weeks [5] Strategy - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply disturbances and weak demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to be weak in the short - term. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market enters a seasonal lull under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The increase in the cost of broad - leaf pulp in the international market cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market due to weak demand. The price of softwood pulp is dominated by the futures market sentiment, and the actual downstream demand in the spot market is also relatively weak, putting pressure on the pulp price. With the shrinking demand, the price - holding strategy in the international market has not been smoothly transmitted to the domestic market, and buyers are dominant in the current supply - demand relationship, so the weak demand suppresses the pulp market. Before the festival, the production activities in the downstream base paper market slow down, and the near - stagnant procurement market makes the price lack support [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 612,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.41 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%. The sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.182 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend for five weeks [5][6]. - Arauco of Chile offered softwood pulp at $710 per ton in February, unchanged; broad - leaf pulp Star at $600 per ton, up $10 per ton; and unbleached pulp Venus at $620 per ton, unchanged [6]. - Wuzhou Special Paper (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd.'s project environmental impact report solicitation draft has been completed [7]. - On February 2, Guanhao High - tech responded to investors' concerns. The land acquisition of Hongta Renheng's Qianshan Factory and the core construction projects are in progress. The 400,000 - ton chemi - mechanical pulp project in Zhanjiang Zhongzhi was put into production ahead of schedule, and the self - made pulp substitution rate is close to 80%. The pilot test line of special fiber composite materials was put into trial operation in December 2025 [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On February 6, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was 66 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 230.00%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.67%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17.65% [15]. - On February 6, 2026, the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%; the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38.89% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was stable this week, while the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish narrowed. On February 6, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 520 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.45% [24][26]. - The import profit of softwood and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline this period. On February 6, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 363.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 218.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 73.96% [31][32]. - The price of the main pulp contract was weak and fluctuating. The spot price of imported softwood pulp declined this week. The downstream base paper price was stable, and the spot price of imported broad - leaf pulp declined [34][36]. - On February 6, 2026, the price of Venus was 4,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price of Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [43]. - The price of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp decreased slightly this period, and the supply increased. On February 5, 2026, the weekly operating load rate of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%; the weekly output was 86,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.18% [48][50]. - European pulp port inventory increased in December 2025, and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline in November 2025 [53]. - In November 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low and the inventory was high; the inventory of broad - leaf pulp was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [55]. - The export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased significantly in December 2025. The export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased significantly in November 2025 [59][62]. - The export volume of broad - leaf pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China increased significantly in December 2025. The export volume of Brazilian and Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp to China decreased in January 2026 [66]. - China's pulp imports were divided in December 2025. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached and chemi - mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was slightly adjusted this period, with a weakening trading atmosphere. The supply of goods in the market was abundant, and the demand from the consumer side was weak [72]. - The price of the domestic coated paper market was stable this period, facing the dual pressures of high costs and weak demand, with a weakening trading atmosphere. The supply of goods in the market was abundant, and the downstream consumption was flat [76]. - The price of the white cardboard market was mainly stable this period. The production of white cardboard increased by 5.74% month - on - month, which had a negative impact on the price. The demand decreased, and the paper mills faced increased production and sales pressure and inventory risks [80]. - The price of the household paper market was mainly stable, with a slightly weak trading atmosphere. As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream stocking of household paper was coming to an end, and the demand improvement was limited [84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, tobacco and alcohol products, and the output of dairy products increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a year - on - year high [90]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On February 6, 2026, the total number of pulp warehouse receipts was 146,400 tons, including 131,400 tons in warehouses and 15,000 tons in factories. The number of factory warehouse receipts increased by 36.36% month - on - month [91]. - The port inventory was at a moderately high level this year, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, and the inventory in Changshu Port decreased slightly [98].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Recently, the supply side of pulp has been disrupted again, but the demand side is weak. Pulp lacks a clear trading logic and is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On February 4, 2026, the SP2601 futures price was 5520 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day and down 1.15% week - on - week. The SP2609 spot price was 5374 yuan/ton, up 0.94% day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.12% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.92% week - on - week. The price of broadleaf pulp Gold Fish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [5]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: The external quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month. Its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month. The import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 (in ten - tons), up 3.00% month - on - month. As of January 29, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 24 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, and day - card paper decreased, while the production of tissue paper increased slightly. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 tons, an increase of 10.1 tons from the previous period, a 4.9% increase. The inventory has continued to accumulate in this cycle, and the port sample inventory has shown a trend of accumulation for four consecutive weeks [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The current core contradiction in the market remains clear, with the supply - demand fundamentals maintaining a state of light rigid demand. The port inventory pressure on the supply side persists, while the demand side shows no improvement. Downstream paper mills' procurement remains weak, and the market lacks upward drivers [100]. - It is predicted that the pulp market will operate within a range. Attention should be paid to the overall market trend, changes in the inventory of major ports, and the purchasing sentiment of the downstream paper market [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 29, 2026, the pulp inventories at Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China all increased, with the mainstream port sample inventory reaching 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period, and the inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5][6]. - On January 28, the second - phase production line of Chenming Group's Zhanjiang Base resumed full - load production, with an annual capacity of 190,000 tons [6]. - Suzano announced a price increase of $10 per ton in the Asian market and $30 per ton in the European and American markets to $1,280 per ton in February 2026 [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On January 30, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was 20 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900.00%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.35%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.33% [15]. - On January 30, 2026, the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 22 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31.25%; the 05 - 07 month - spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50.00% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spreads between Silver Star - Goldfish and Russian Needle - Goldfish narrowed. On January 30, 2026, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 720 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% [24][26]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp continued to decline. On January 30, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 350 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.61%; the import profit of broad - leaved pulp (Star) was - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.09% [30][31]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp was weak and consolidating, and the price of imported broad - leaved pulp was weakening. The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp also showed different degrees of change [33][35][40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [42]. - The price of domestic broad - leaved pulp decreased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp decreased. On January 29, 2026, the weekly production of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased by 5.13% month - on - month, and the weekly production of broad - leaved pulp remained unchanged [46][48]. - In November 2025, the European pulp port inventory and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [50]. - In November 2025, the W20 coniferous pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory; the broad - leaved pulp inventory was at a high level, the shipment decreased, and the inventory days returned to the year - on - year high [54]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month; in November 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased significantly month - on - month [58][61]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broad - leaved pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month; in December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaved pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [65]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The coniferous pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the broad - leaved pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the natural color and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [67][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic double - offset paper market was narrowly sorted and the trading atmosphere was dull. The copper - plate paper market price was stable, but the trading atmosphere was weak. The white - cardboard market price was stable, with reduced production and light demand. The household paper market price was stable, with weak terminal demand and high inventory pressure [71][75][79][83]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the dairy product output increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [89]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of five ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 216.9 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88% and a year - on - year increase of 23.38%. The inventory was at a moderately high level within the year and continued to accumulate [96][97]. - On January 30, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 14.24 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.58% [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The current core contradiction in the market remains clear, with the supply - demand fundamentals maintaining a state of light and rigid demand. The port inventory pressure on the supply side persists, while the demand side shows no improvement. Downstream paper mills' procurement remains weak, and the market lacks upward drivers [101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 29, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 625,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,000 tons or 11.8%. The inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons or 1.6%. The inventory at Gaolan Port was 45,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons or 7.1%. The total inventory of the mainstream port samples in China was 2.169 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons or 4.9%, and the inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5][6]. - On January 28, the second - phase production line of Chenming's Zhanjiang Base resumed full - load production, with an annual production capacity of 190,000 tons, mainly producing high - quality cultural paper and specialty paper [6]. - Suzano announced price increases in February 2026, with a $10 increase in the Asian market and a $30 increase in the European and American markets to $1,280 [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - The basis of Silver Star on January 30, 2026, was 20 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 95.82%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 581.82%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.00% [15]. - The 03 - 05 month - spread on January 30, 2026, was - 22 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. The 05 - 07 month - spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50.00% [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish and between Russian Needle and Goldfish both decreased this week. On January 30, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 720 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 54.17% [24][26]. - The import profits of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline this period. On January 30, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 350.27 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 543.32%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 125.43 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 182.56% [31]. - The price of coniferous pulp was weakly consolidating. On January 30, 2026, the prices of Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in Shandong were 5,320 yuan/ton, 5,500 yuan/ton, and 5,550 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.48%, 1.79%, and 1.77% and year - on - year decreases of 19.39%, 17.29%, and 17.16% [34]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp was weakening. On January 30, 2026, the prices of Goldfish, Star, and others in Shandong were around 4,600 yuan/ton, with month - on - month decreases of about 1.08% and year - on - year decreases of about 5 - 6% [36][38]. - On January 30, 2026, the price of Venus was 4,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.61%. The price of Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 7.04% [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip procurement price of paper mills in East China remained stable this week [43]. - The price of domestic broad - leaf pulp decreased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp decreased. On January 29, 2026, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 132,000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 17.86%. The weekly production of chemimechanical pulp was 85,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16% [47][49]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline. The port inventory in Europe was 1.389 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.80%. The global pulp shipping volume was 4.357 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.90% [51][53]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of broad - leaf pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [55]. - In December 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month [59][62]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month, and the export volume of Chilean and Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp to China also increased [66]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were polarized. The import volume of coniferous pulp increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the import volume of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the imports of unbleached and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic double - offset paper market was narrowly sorted this period, with a dull trading atmosphere. The industry's profitability was under pressure, and paper mills were reluctant to lower prices. The social inventory of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month [72]. - The domestic coated paper market price was stable this period, with a weakening trading atmosphere. Factory production was under pressure due to high costs, and downstream demand was weak [76]. - The white cardboard market price was mainly stable this period. The cost pressure was relieved, and the profitability of paper mills improved. The production volume decreased month - on - month, and the demand was expected to be dull [80]. - The price of the household paper market remained stable this week, with little change in the overall trading activity. The terminal demand was difficult to improve significantly, and the support of raw pulp prices for household paper prices was weak [84]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [90]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On January 30, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 142,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.58% [91]. - The port inventory was at a moderately high level within the year, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China continued to increase this period. On January 30, 2026, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.39 million tons, the inventory at Changshu Port was 625,000 tons, and the total inventory of the five ports was 2.169 million tons [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp demand has been stable recently, with a slight increase in the price of household paper and stable prices of other paper products. The production of major wood-pulp paper is stable. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China continued to accumulate. Recently, pulp futures warrants have been centrally registered, with limited room for further increase, and the price of hardwood pulp has slightly weakened. Consider shorting after a rebound [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 18, 2026, SP2601 was 5,542 yuan/ton, up 2.44% day-on-day and 1.13% week-on-week; SP2609 was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 1.57% day-on-day and 3.61% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5,362 yuan/ton, down 1.36% day-on-day and 3.39% week-on-week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 18, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day-on-day and 0.90% week-on-week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,250 yuan/ton, down 0.94% day-on-day and 2.78% week-on-week; the price of hardwood pulp was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 1.05% day-on-day and week-on-week [6] - **Foreign Offers**: In January 2026, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, up 2.94% month-on-month; the offer of Brazilian Goldfish was 540 US dollars/ton, up 1.89% month-on-month; the offer of Chilean Venus was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month-on-month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4,425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month-on-month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5,073 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month-on-month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month-on-month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month-on-month. From January 8 to January 15, 2026, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 25.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 201.4 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.9 tons [6] - **Demand**: From December 4, 2025, to January 15, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.3 tons, the production of coated paper was 8.3 tons, the production of household paper was 29.3 tons, and the production of white cardboard was 38.4 tons [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - The paper pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short term, with supply pressure from high port inventories and weak demand in the downstream raw paper market. The market lacks a breakthrough driver, and a weak balance has formed between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign offers and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [93]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the European port pulp inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.80% year - on - year; the global pulp outbound volume decreased by 3.61% month - on - month and 6.90% year - on - year [48]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price - repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increases starting from January 2026, with the main product of white cardboard increasing by 200 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Basis and Spread - On December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% month - on - month increase and an 85.09% year - on - year decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% month - on - month increase and a 200.00% year - on - year decrease; the silver star - Russian needle spread was 200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a 60.00% year - on - year decrease [14]. - On December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25.00% month - on - month decrease; the 03 - 05 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% month - on - month increase [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On December 31, 2025, the silver star - goldfish spread was 900 yuan/ton, a 3.23% month - on - month decrease and a 45.45% year - on - year decrease; the Russian needle - goldfish spread was 700 yuan/ton, a 4.11% month - on - month decrease and a 39.13% year - on - year decrease [25]. - On December 31, 2025, the import profit of silver star pulp was - 39.78 yuan/ton, a 12.22% month - on - month increase and a 29.55% year - on - year increase; the import profit of star pulp was 92.75 yuan/ton, a 59.25% month - on - month increase and a 39.14% year - on - year decrease [28]. - The price of domestic coniferous pulp remained stable last week, with weak demand and light actual - order transactions. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp was supported by tight supply and cost, and traders were holding prices [30][32]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China remained stable last week [39]. - The price of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this period. In November 2025, the European paper pulp port inventory and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [43][48]. - In October 2025, the W20 coniferous pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory; the broad - leaf pulp inventory was at a high level, but the shipment decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [50]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year. In September 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month and year - on - year [53][56]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month, and the export volumes of Uruguay and Chile decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with coniferous pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [62]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of domestic offset paper remained stable last week, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises, limited enthusiasm of dealers for purchasing, and weak social demand [66]. - The domestic coated paper market was mainly in a narrow - range adjustment last period, with poor order - receiving by paper mills, some reducing production, and weak social demand [70]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable last period, with increased production. Large - scale paper mills supported the market, and terminal orders were scattered [74]. - The price increase of the household paper market slowed down last week, with stable supply, downstream processing plants purchasing on demand, and raw material price fluctuations slowing down [78]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering revenue, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [82]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of five ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 1.906 million tons, a 4.37% month - on - month decrease and a 2.64% year - on - year increase. The inventory in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased during the holiday as of January 4, 2026 [90][93].