Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of pulp is bearish as Chile's Arauco company's import quotes show a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp, and China's pulp production in October 2025 rose by 10.2% month - on - month [4] - The demand is neutral to bullish as the production of major wood - pulp papers is basically stable, the price of white cardboard has increased significantly with a de - stocking trend, and other paper types remain stable [4] - The inventory is bearish as of November 13, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory reached 211.0 tons, up 5.1% month - on - month after a narrow de - stocking last period [4] - The investment view is to wait and see. The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit, and there is limited room for further increase. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy can be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company's October quotes show softwood pulp decline and hardwood pulp increase. China's pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 tons, up 10.2% month - on - month, indicating a relatively loose supply [4] - **Demand**: Major wood - pulp paper production is stable, white cardboard price rises with de - stocking trend, and other paper types are stable [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port inventory is 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase, changing from de - stocking to high - level inventory accumulation [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit with limited upside. Close the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy. For single - side trading, focus on old and new warehouse receipt situations; no specific arbitrage strategy is provided [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Hardwood pulp spot prices rose significantly, and deliverable softwood pulp maintained a positive basis. The pulp futures price has exceeded the import cost of deliverable softwood pulp, limiting further increase and increasing the probability of warehouse receipt registration [8] - **Spot Price**: Softwood pulp silver star price is 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; softwood pulp cloth needle price is 4980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp goldfish price is 4400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - **External Quotes**: In October, Chile's Arauco company's softwood pulp silver star quote was 680 dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp star quote was 540 dollars/ton [20] - **Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the total pulp futures contract position was 345935, up 1.37% from last week; the main contract position was 173670 hands, up 1.10% from last week [25] PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, pulp and wood chip imports increased. In October, total pulp imports were 295.20 tons, up 11.27% year - on - year; softwood pulp imports were 69.10 tons, up 12.54% year - on - year; hardwood pulp imports were 135.60 tons, up 7.79% year - on - year [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port pulp inventory was 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased, with 46 days at the end of September [4][41] - **Downstream Demand**: In October 2025, paper product production increased month - on - month. Double - offset paper production was 76.46 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month; copperplate paper production was 39.42 tons, up 2.4% month - on - month; household paper production was 86.06 tons, up 0.9% month - on - month; white cardboard production was 107.62 tons, up 1% month - on - month [49] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of November 13, 2025, total double - offset paper inventory was 189.93 tons, up 0.38% week - on - week. Production was 20.88 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week. Production cost was 4988 yuan/ton, up 1.7% week - on - week, and gross profit was - 345 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [63][67][71] - **Overseas Demand**: In October 2025, European softwood pulp inventory days were 26, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp inventory days were 27, down 1 day month - on - month. As of August 2025, US paper product capacity utilization was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down 0.04 month - on - month [74] PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shandong Russian needle basis was - 500 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week; the Shandong silver star basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week. The 12 - 1 month spread was - 566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week [83] - **Import Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, softwood pulp import profit was 57 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp import profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week [87]