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天风证券:“反内卷”奠定行业拐点 石化行业有望从局部改善到全面复苏
智通财经网· 2025-11-26 23:39
Core Viewpoint - Controlling incremental growth is the key to long-term improvement in the industry, while reducing existing capacity focuses on addressing current contradictions [1][2] Group 1: Industry Improvement Strategies - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry" emphasizes scientific regulation of major project construction, strict control of new refining capacity, and reasonable determination of new capacity scale and deployment rhythm for ethylene and paraxylene [1] - The industry is experiencing a high operating rate without significant overcapacity, with various petrochemical products expected to see an average capacity growth rate exceeding 10% per year from 2019 to 2025 [2] - The industry is likely to transition from localized improvements to a comprehensive recovery, with a significant decline in the production growth rate of most petrochemical products expected by 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - In 2026, the new capacity for PX is expected to fall short of expectations, while geopolitical factors and refinery disruptions are driving up the price differential for overseas refined oil, potentially enhancing profitability for refining [3] - The PTA and polyester filament sectors are making positive progress in reducing excess capacity, with future new capacity growth expected to be low and increasing maintenance activities [3] - The high barriers to entry in the petrochemical industry are expected to further solidify the industry's competitive moat as new capacity growth declines from 2027 to 2028 [2]