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张尧浠:非农数据等重磅来袭、黄金百日线附近仍待走强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 00:48
Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the impact of U.S. economic indicators on gold prices. The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by the 100-day moving average, despite pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 31, gold opened at $3275.89 per ounce, reached a low of $3273.86, and peaked at $3314.81 before closing at $3289.93, marking a daily increase of $14.04 or 0.43% [1]. - The daily trading range was $40.95, indicating significant volatility and trading opportunities [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting key economic data, including U.S. unemployment rates and non-farm payroll figures, with expectations of rising unemployment and declining job numbers, which could support gold prices [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has recently strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time in two months, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 [7]. - The gold price is currently supported by an upward trend line from previous highs, indicating that any pullback may stabilize above $3000 [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is trading below the 5-10 week moving averages, with a possibility of further declines to $3200 or $3000 [9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a period of volatility, with the potential for a rebound if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates in September, which could push gold prices towards $3570 [11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that gold may experience a period of consolidation before potentially rising again in the fourth quarter of the year [5][12].