Core Viewpoint - President Trump is prepared to escalate economic sanctions against Russia if President Putin does not agree to a ceasefire, indicating a potential "economic war" with severe consequences for Russia [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Sanctions and Military Conflict - Trump emphasized that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in thousands of deaths weekly, and he is willing to impose serious economic repercussions on Russia if necessary [3]. - He has a history of using economic sanctions and high tariffs as threats in international relations, stating that the consequences for Russia would be "very serious" if the conflict continues [3]. - Trump mentioned that he had hoped for a breakthrough in the conflict following a historic summit with Putin, but no new meetings have been scheduled between Putin and Zelensky since then [3][4]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Relationships - Zelensky has been urging for a meeting with Putin, suggesting that Turkey, Gulf countries, or European nations could host the negotiations [4]. - Trump criticized Zelensky for not being sufficiently grateful for U.S. aid and suggested that he has become an obstacle to peace [4]. - A senior advisor to Zelensky indicated that Ukraine is urgently seeking more Western weapons, expressing concerns that Russia remains uninterested in peace despite recent summits [4]. Group 3: Trade Policies and Tariffs - Trump hinted at the possibility of implementing costly tariffs on Russia, Ukraine, or any other countries to enforce peace, although he did not provide specific details [4]. - He has already decided to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50% in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, but has not yet taken further action against other countries buying Russian oil [4].

Group 1 - The current market situation indicates the beginning of a prolonged economic war rather than the end of trade disputes, as highlighted by Capital Economics' chief analyst Kyle Rodda [3] - Recent data shows an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 268,000, and the first quarter GDP revision was lowered to 1.1%, raising concerns about a potential "Trump recession" [3] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury auction faced historic cold reception with the winning yield soaring to 4.85%, while Japan's central bank had to intervene to suppress the 10-year bond yield, indicating unsustainable fiscal conditions in both countries [3] Group 2 - The core CPI in Tokyo rose by 3.2% year-on-year, leading to a 0.3% jump in the yen, as markets speculate on a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July, contrasting with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - The dollar/yen monthly line still shows a modest decline of 0.5%, primarily due to safe-haven demand triggered by Trump's "America First" policy [3] - Economies.com analysts noted that the recent pullback in spot gold prices is a corrective move aimed at consolidating previous gains and addressing the overbought conditions indicated by the RSI [4]