Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong consolidation, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields mostly declining, indicating a potential trend towards looser liquidity conditions [1][5] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.24% at 120.820, the 10-year main contract up 0.14% at 109.160, the 5-year main contract up 0.15% at 106.300, and the 2-year main contract up 0.08% at 102.540 [2] - Major interbank rates mostly fell, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.7055% and the 10-year government bond yield down 0.25 basis points to 1.6375% [2] International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 4.16 basis points to 4.446% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up 2.8 basis points to 1.479% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds generally fell, with French yields down 1.9 basis points to 3.232% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's 10-year fixed-rate bond "25国开15" had a winning bid rate of 1.65%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 3.94 [4] - The 10-year "25甘肃债23" had a winning bid rate of 1.78% and a total bid-to-cover ratio of 25.05, indicating strong demand [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1973 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 1833 billion yuan on the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 1.9 basis points to 1.369% [5] Institutional Insights - Huayuan Securities suggests that interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations, recommending attention to credit bonds with yields above 2% [6] - CITIC Fixed Income notes that since March, funding rates have been in a downward trend, indicating a need for a reasonable liquidity environment to support economic growth [7]

路透技术分析师指出，现货黄金预计将测试每盎司 3272 美元的支撑位，跌破该水平可能导致金价跌至 3215 美元至 3243 美元的区间。 周五（5月30日）欧洲交易时段，受疲软的美国初请失业金数据拖累，美元走弱，金价周四自周内低点 3245美元/盎司展开反弹，一举突破3300美元/盎司关键心理关口。美联储5月6-7日会议纪要显示，决策 者承认未来数月将面临"两难抉择"——在通胀与失业率双升的背景下，经济衰退风险显著攀升。鉴于黄 金作为无息资产的特性，其在低利率环境中通常更具投资吸引力。 更令人忧心的是，全球债务市场正发出危险信号。美国30年期国债拍卖遭遇历史性冷遇，得标利率飙升 至4.85%，与此同时，日本央行不得不介入以压制10年期日债收益率。据德意志银行报告显示，美日两 国政府债务占GDP的比例已分别突破135%和265%，这种不可持续的财政状况正在动摇美元根基。 随着7月9日特朗普关税大限的临近，所有目光都聚焦在三个关键时点：今晚的PCE数据、下周OPEC+产 量会议以及6月中旬的G7财长峰会。摩根大通警告称，若核心PCE环比涨幅超过0.4%，美联储或将被迫 在通胀与衰退之间做出艰难抉择。 这场由特朗 ...

Group 1 - The current market situation indicates the beginning of a prolonged economic war rather than the end of trade disputes, as highlighted by Capital Economics' chief analyst Kyle Rodda [3] - Recent data shows an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 268,000, and the first quarter GDP revision was lowered to 1.1%, raising concerns about a potential "Trump recession" [3] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury auction faced historic cold reception with the winning yield soaring to 4.85%, while Japan's central bank had to intervene to suppress the 10-year bond yield, indicating unsustainable fiscal conditions in both countries [3] Group 2 - The core CPI in Tokyo rose by 3.2% year-on-year, leading to a 0.3% jump in the yen, as markets speculate on a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July, contrasting with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - The dollar/yen monthly line still shows a modest decline of 0.5%, primarily due to safe-haven demand triggered by Trump's "America First" policy [3] - Economies.com analysts noted that the recent pullback in spot gold prices is a corrective move aimed at consolidating previous gains and addressing the overbought conditions indicated by the RSI [4]