Core Viewpoint - DoubleLine Capital, founded by the "new bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach, is concerned about the declining quality of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is utilizing various official and private data sources to assess the health of the U.S. economy [2][3] Group 1: Concerns about Data Quality - The BLS has significantly revised previous employment data downward, causing market turmoil and raising investor concerns about the Federal Reserve's data reliance [2] - The participation rate in the employer survey used by the BLS for its monthly employment report has dropped from 60% in the 2010s to nearly 40% in recent years [2][3] - The BLS is increasingly relying on statistical interpolation methods to estimate missing data due to declining survey responses, which raises the risk of measurement errors [3] Group 2: Economic Analysis Approach - DoubleLine Capital employs a holistic approach to monitor economic health, supplementing official data with private datasets, corporate earnings calls, and insights from internal experts [2] - The recent data indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with job growth falling short of expectations, supporting the view that the labor market is losing momentum [3] - The decline in the quality of BLS data undermines the reliability of economic analysis, posing risks to businesses, policymakers, and markets [3]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's budget proposal for the fiscal year 2026 includes an approximately 8% cut to the budget and staffing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which may lead to less reliable economic data that Wall Street heavily relies on [1] - The BLS will focus its resources on core data series known as "major federal economic indicators" (PFEIs), potentially resulting in the elimination of other important economic statistics [1][2] - The budget proposal also suggests restructuring the BLS under the Department of Commerce, merging it with the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau, which is expected to improve efficiency and data quality [1] Group 2 - The BLS has been struggling with a declining budget adjusted for inflation over the years, and has already lost a significant number of staff due to layoffs, early retirements, and a hiring freeze [2] - The collection of some economic data has been affected, with the BLS announcing a reduction in the number of Consumer Price Index (CPI) survey locations due to personnel shortages, which may decrease the reliability of CPI as an inflation measure [3] - The BLS has also announced adjustments to the Producer Price Index (PPI), stopping the calculation of 350 indices, although these indices account for less than 1% of the total PPI [3]