11月24日 中国11月中旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格公布 点评：11月24日9:30，国家统计局将公布11月中旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格，包括黑色金属、有 色金属、化工产品、石油天然气、煤炭、非金属建材、农产品（主要用于加工）、农业生产资料、林产 品等9大类50种产品的价格。 11月25日 ?美国公布三季度GDP修正值 ?点评：北京时间11月26日21:30，美国商务部将公布三季度GDP修正值。预期美国三季度实际GDP年化 季率修正值为3.0%，初值为3.8%。 11月27日 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书 央行续作MLF 点评：11月25日有9000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）到期，预期央行将在11月25日9:25增量续作MLF，具 体操作金额将根据市场需求等情况确定。 美国公布9月PPI 点评：北京时间11月25日21:30，美国劳工部将公布9月生产者价格指数（PPI），之前该数据受美国政 府"停摆"影响推迟公布。预期美国9月PPI年率为2.7%，前值为2.6%；预期美国9月核心PPI年率为 2.7%，前值为2.8%。 11月26日 美国公布9月PCE物价指数 点评：北京时间11月26日20:30，美国商 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has created a significant "black hole" in the economy, leading to a backlog of critical economic reports that will soon be released [2] - The September employment report is expected to be released soon, with estimates suggesting it could be available as early as this week or early next week [2] - The shutdown has severely impacted the release of key inflation reports for October, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which may not be published at all [4] Group 2 - The delay in the September employment report and the potential absence of the October inflation reports will hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in their upcoming meetings [4] - The October employment report is likely to be delayed significantly, possibly until just before the Federal Reserve's next meeting on December 9-10, and may even be combined with the November report [4][6] - The forced leave of hundreds of thousands of federal employees could distort the data in the October report, making it less reliable [6]

Group 1: Central Bank Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech almost confirms a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, indicating that the U.S. economic outlook has not changed significantly since September, but labor market risks are rising [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated that inflation and economic outlook risks are broadly balanced, keeping all options open regarding future rate cuts, with a 50% probability of a rate cut by Q1 2026 [3] - Bank of England Governor Bailey warned of the coexistence of inflation above target and a weak labor market, with the IMF predicting the fastest price growth among major economies for the UK over the next two years [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the significant speeches from the three central bank leaders, the impact on the bond market was limited, with UK government bond yields falling between 4.9 to 6.9 basis points [3] - German long-term yields decreased by approximately 3.2 basis points, while U.S. Treasury yields varied from a decrease of 2.1 basis points for 2-year bonds to an increase of 1.3 basis points for 30-year bonds [3] - The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.16, partly benefiting from a weaker dollar, and stock index futures indicate a likely higher opening for the market [3] Group 3: Economic Data - China's September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month, ending a three-month decline, while year-on-year it fell by 0.3%, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased from 0.5% to 1%, marking a 19-month high, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [4] - In Australia, the central bank's assistant governor warned that core inflation for the September quarter may exceed expectations, with a 40% probability of a rate cut anticipated in November [5]

Group 1 - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions on whether a surprise 50 basis point cut will occur instead [2] - The overall market sentiment has shifted since Powell's change in stance at Jackson Hole, focusing on the speed of potential easing rather than the likelihood of it [2] - Predictions from Pantheon Macroeconomics suggest three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, while Wedbush forecasts two cuts [2] Group 2 - The non-farm payroll report indicates weak job growth, with only 22,000 new jobs added, and private sector data showing even poorer performance [3] - A report from Daiwa Capital Markets reveals that the average monthly job growth in the private sector from June to August was only 29,000, a significant drop from 100,000 before tariffs were implemented [3] - The private sector employment diffusion index fell to 48 in August, indicating more companies are laying off employees than hiring [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces pressure to fulfill its dual mandate of promoting full employment while also controlling inflation [5] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are expected to show rising inflation, which may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [5] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that unless inflation data is unusually weak, a significant rate cut is unlikely [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor's Office of Inspector General has initiated a review to assess the challenges faced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the collection and reporting of economic data [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced a reduction in data collection for two key inflation indicators, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] - There has been a significant downward revision in the estimates of new jobs added in the monthly Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for August marks the first drop since April, reinforcing the rationale for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [2][5]. Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, with July's data revised downwards. Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 2.6% [2]. - Excluding food and energy, the prices of goods rose by 0.3%, while service costs fell by 0.2%. The profit margins for wholesalers and retailers dropped by 1.7%, matching the largest decline since 2009 [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in inflation expectations has led to an increase in U.S. stock index futures and bond prices, with market participants anticipating multiple interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [6][8]. - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to reveal how much of the tariffs have been passed on to American households, with analysts predicting a significant monthly increase in core indicators excluding food and energy [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are expected to lower interest rates in response to the rapid slowdown in the labor market, as indicated by recent employment data [6]. - The PPI report is closely monitored as some components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [6].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. strengthens the rationale for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][12]. Group 1: PPI Data Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.1% month-over-month in August, marking the first decline since April, while year-over-year, it increased by 2.6% [3]. - Excluding food and energy, the prices of goods rose by 0.3%, while service costs decreased by 0.2% [8][10]. - The report indicates that despite higher costs from tariffs, companies refrained from significant price increases due to concerns about consumer behavior amid economic uncertainty [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the PPI data release, U.S. stock index futures and Treasury prices rose, reflecting market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts [8][12]. - The decline in inflation expectations has led to a significant drop in two-year Treasury yields and a weakening of the dollar [12]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The extent to which companies pass on tariff burdens to consumers will be crucial in determining the direction of interest rates this year [9]. - Federal Reserve officials anticipate that import tariffs will elevate inflation through 2025, but the nature of this impact—whether temporary or persistent—remains undecided [9]. - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will provide insights into how much of the August tariffs have been transmitted to American households [9].

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitation regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing uncertainty from tariffs, indicating a need for at least one more inflation report to assess persistent price pressures [1] - Goolsbee highlighted concerns over high service inflation from the recent CPI and PPI reports, suggesting that rising service prices are unlikely to be temporary, while cautioning against overreacting to single-month data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year while monitoring the impact of tariffs and other policies on inflation and employment, with a weaker-than-expected jobs report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September, as investors see over a 90% chance of a cut next month [1] Group 2 - Goolsbee emphasized the need to distinguish between temporary and persistent price increases, stating that clarity would come with similar inflation reports in the future [2] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed a 0.5% increase in retail sales in July, with June's data revised to a 0.9% increase, while sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.3% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence by about 5% in August, primarily due to rising inflation concerns, with short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [2][3] Group 3 - The consumer survey also reported a 14% drop in durable goods purchases, the lowest level in a year, reflecting increased concerns over purchasing power, while personal financial expectations showed slight improvement [3] - Despite a decrease in immediate concerns regarding tariffs, consumers still anticipate worsening inflation and unemployment rates in the future [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a significant market downturn and altering interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month rise since June 2022, while economists had anticipated a 0.2% increase [2]. - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, the highest 12-month increase since February, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [3]. - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.9%, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the inflation data release, traders reduced their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a rate cut now at 90%, down from a previous full pricing [4]. - The market's initial expectation of a rate cut was influenced by earlier CPI data, which was in line with expectations, but the PPI data has shifted sentiment [3][4]. - Analysts noted that while PPI was higher than expected, the relatively stable CPI suggests that companies are currently absorbing most of the tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers [4]. Group 3: Broader Market Impact - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline in pre-market trading following the inflation report [5]. - The U.S. dollar index saw an increase, indicating a stronger dollar in response to the inflation data [7]. - Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum faced significant drops, reflecting broader market volatility [8].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected rise in U.S. inflation data has led to a significant market reaction, with a decrease in expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9%, the largest monthly gain since June 2022, surpassing the expected increase of 0.2% [2]. - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.9%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% [2]. - Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 3.3%, marking the highest 12-month rise since February, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [2]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the inflation data, traders reduced their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a September rate cut now at 90%, down from a previous full pricing [5]. - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a sharp decline, and the U.S. dollar index rose [7]. - Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum also saw significant drops in value [9].