美联储官员今年一直维持利率不变，等待观察关税及其他政策对美国经济通胀和就业的影响。不过，弱 于预期的就业报告增加了9月降息的可能性。根据利率期货，投资者认为下月降息的概率超过90%。 古尔斯比表示，他希望等待更多经济数据出炉，并补充称"经济仍存在诸多优势"。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五表示，本周好坏参半的通胀数据，加之关税带来的持续不确定性，让他对 降息有些犹豫。他希望至少再看一份通胀报告，以确认持续的价格压力是否在升温。古尔斯比是今年12 位联邦公开市场委员会有投票权的委员之一。 古尔斯比发表上述言论之前，美国商务部周五数据显示，7月美国零售销售全面增长。未剔除通胀因素 的零售销售额增长0.5%，6月数据被上修至增长0.9%。剔除汽车后的销售额增长0.3%。 "近期数据有些好坏参半，"古尔斯比周五在接受CNBC采访时谈及近期通胀数据称，"我觉得我们至少 还需要一份报告，才能判断我们是否仍走在黄金路径上。"他所谓的"黄金路径"即通胀放缓与劳动力市 场稳定并行，最终导向降息。 古尔斯比呼应了本周早些时候的言论，他对周二公布的通胀报告中显示的高服务通胀表示担忧。他表 示，本周公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者 ...

【导读】美国通胀数据高于预期，美股期指跳水 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，突发利空，美国降息预期突变！市场全线跳水，一起看看发生了什么事情。 突发利空 8 月14日晚间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的报告显示，7月美国批发价格涨幅远超预期， 这可能表明通胀仍是美国经济面临的威胁。 衡量最终需求商品和服务价格的生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，为2022年6月以来 的最大单月涨幅， 而经济学家此前预期为上涨0.2% 。 剔除食品和能源价格的核心PPI环比上涨0.9%，高于预期的0.3%；剔除食品、能源和贸易服务后的指数 上涨0.6%，为2022年3月以来的最大涨幅。 从同比来看，PPI上涨3.3%，为2月以来的最大12个月涨幅，远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。 尽管PPI的关注度低于消费者价格指数（CPI），但它为了解价格传导链条提供了重要信息。这两项指标 共同影响美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE），这是美联储用于通胀预测的主要参考指标，将 于本月晚些时候更新。 由于本周早些时候公布的CPI大致符合预期，市场原本几乎笃定美联储将在9月的会议下调关键利率。 根据CME集团的"美联储观察工具"，PPI数 ...

Core Insights - A recent survey indicates that 89 out of 100 top policy experts express concerns over the quality of U.S. official economic data, with many fearing insufficient urgency from authorities to address the issue [1][2][3] Group 1: Concerns Over Data Quality - The survey reveals that 41 out of 100 economists are "very concerned" about the quality of U.S. economic data, highlighting fears regarding future data releases [2] - A significant reduction in the workforce at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other government agencies is seen as a potential threat to the reliability of data used for decision-making by policymakers, companies, and households [1][2] - Over 80% of respondents believe that U.S. authorities are not treating the accuracy of economic data with sufficient urgency [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Budget Cuts - Approximately 70% of respondents feel that U.S. government agencies lack the resources necessary to maintain high-quality economic data collection and publication [4] - The BLS has announced it will stop calculating and publishing around 350 components of the Producer Price Index (PPI) due to staff reductions, which is a key inflation indicator [2] - Experts note that budget cuts are occurring at a time when conducting surveys is becoming increasingly difficult, as more effort is required to sample and follow up with respondents [4] Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve - More than two-thirds of respondents express concern that deteriorating statistical data could impair the Federal Reserve's decision-making [4] - There are worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve from political influence, especially in light of public criticisms from President Trump [4]

Group 1 - The import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may have started to affect core commodity prices, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [1] - The U.S. Labor Department is expected to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which may show the largest increase in core CPI in four months, primarily due to the price increases from tariffs [1][2] - Economists predict that May will mark the beginning of high inflation readings related to tariffs, with this trend likely to continue until the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The CPI is expected to rise by 2.5% year-on-year in May, up from 2.3% in April, reflecting base effects from last year's lower data [2] - Core CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest rise since January, and is expected to rise by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above April's 2.8% [2] Group 3 - Concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of CPI data due to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) pausing data collection in three cities, influenced by resource constraints and budget cuts [3] - The BLS has experienced a significant reduction in staffing levels, with at least a 15% decrease, which may impact data collection and reporting [4] - Despite staffing issues, the BLS maintains that the data quality meets strict standards and continues to evaluate data reliability [5]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's budget proposal for the fiscal year 2026 includes an approximately 8% cut to the budget and staffing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which may lead to less reliable economic data that Wall Street heavily relies on [1] - The BLS will focus its resources on core data series known as "major federal economic indicators" (PFEIs), potentially resulting in the elimination of other important economic statistics [1][2] - The budget proposal also suggests restructuring the BLS under the Department of Commerce, merging it with the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau, which is expected to improve efficiency and data quality [1] Group 2 - The BLS has been struggling with a declining budget adjusted for inflation over the years, and has already lost a significant number of staff due to layoffs, early retirements, and a hiring freeze [2] - The collection of some economic data has been affected, with the BLS announcing a reduction in the number of Consumer Price Index (CPI) survey locations due to personnel shortages, which may decrease the reliability of CPI as an inflation measure [3] - The BLS has also announced adjustments to the Producer Price Index (PPI), stopping the calculation of 350 indices, although these indices account for less than 1% of the total PPI [3]