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【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的3月经济
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-04-02 13:48
Group 1 - The industrial sector's operating rates show mixed year-on-year changes, with significant increases in upstream blast furnace and coking operating rates, both up by 5.6 percentage points [1][7] - Coal-fired power generation and coal consumption continue to follow the growth trend of the previous months, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in coal-fired power generation and 6.6% in coal consumption as of March 27 [2][9] - The construction funding availability rate has improved, with a national average of 57.9% as of March 25, up 1.4 percentage points from the end of February [3][10] Group 2 - Subway passenger volumes in major cities remain stable, with an average of 63.19 million trips in March, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][11] - The real estate market shows sustained interest in second-hand homes, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% in intermediary purchases in March for 73 cities, while new home transactions have slightly slowed [5][13] - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars have expanded, with retail sales up 18% year-on-year and wholesale sales up 16% as of March 23 [6][14] Group 3 - Home appliance sales maintain relatively high offline growth rates, with offline sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showing positive year-on-year growth in the fourth week of March [7][15] - Container throughput continues to show resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in March, reflecting stable export conditions [8][16] - Basic metals continue to show strength, while energy, chemicals, steel, and building materials are adjusting, with the broad industrial product price index (BPI) showing a slight decline of 0.2% at the end of March compared to February [9][17] Group 4 - Economic indicators such as EPMI, BCI, and PMI point to continued economic improvement on a month-on-month basis, although year-on-year assessments remain challenging due to varying slopes [10][19] - Emerging industries and sectors benefiting from policy incentives are leading in terms of economic vitality, while the upstream raw materials sector shows weaker performance [11][19] - The construction sector's funding situation continues to improve, but actual work volume lacks consistent signals, indicating a need for increased activity [12][19]