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超八成基金经理“初遇”4100点,公募行业如何应对“经验断层”?
第一财经· 2026-01-23 12:19
当上证指数时隔十年跃过4100点、交易页面的红光映着股民兴奋的脸庞,这份喧嚣背后,一个更深 层的变化正在发生:执掌万亿资金的基金经理群体里,超过八成根本没经历过上一轮4100点的"战 场"。 2026.01. 23 本文字数:4099,阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 "你的基金经理,可能比你还'新'"! "没经历过4100点就一定做不好投资吗?这可能也是一种偏见。"第一财经就此采访了多位不同背景 的基金经理,一边是大胆探索的"新股民"基金经理,一边是带着记忆与警觉的"老江湖"。两代操盘 手对本轮牛市的核心判断、对"经验"价值的理解,正碰撞出截然不同的观察与应对策略。 八成基金经理是"新股民" 十年,在资本市场足以构成一个完整的周期,也足以完成一代基金经理的更新换代。 2025年10月28日,上证指数时隔10年首次在盘中触及4000点,并于次日收盘正式站上该整数关 口。在经历短暂回调后,上证指数在2026年1月9日突破4100点后再次进入震荡区间,而上一次触 及该点位还要追溯到2015年7月。 同样是4100点,市场的亲历者已大不相同。近年来公募基金规模爆发式扩容,大量年轻基金经理快 速走上前台。 ...
财富观 | “初遇”4100点,新锐基金经理如何应对经验空白?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-23 11:40
Core Insights - The A-share market has returned to the 4100-point level after ten years, with over 80% of fund managers having never experienced this level before [2][3] - The current market dynamics are shaped by a new generation of fund managers who are navigating a "structural bull market" rather than a traditional bull market driven by leverage [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index first crossed the 4000-point mark on October 28, 2025, and reached 4100 points on January 9, 2026, marking a significant recovery since July 2015 [3] - Over 83% of fund managers, approximately 3429 out of 4108, have started their careers after 2016, indicating a generational shift in the investment landscape [3] - The current bull market is characterized by a focus on industry policies and technological innovation rather than the leverage-driven dynamics of previous bull markets [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - New fund managers are adopting a balanced and disciplined approach, emphasizing the importance of maintaining their investment philosophy and avoiding impulsive trading behaviors [6][7] - Experienced fund managers stress the need for a return to fundamental research and a focus on valuation and performance matching, moving away from mere point comparisons [4][9] - The current market is seen as more resilient, driven by household savings and ETF allocations, contrasting with the leverage-driven market of 2015 [4][5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - New fund managers face challenges such as a lack of historical market experience, which may lead to over-reliance on short-term data and insufficient risk management [8] - However, their lack of historical baggage allows them to embrace new technologies and adapt to current market demands more readily [8] - Experienced managers highlight the evolving role of experience, which now focuses more on risk management and emotional resilience rather than solely on stock selection [9][10] Group 4: Institutional Responses - Fund companies are addressing the experience gap through structured training and mentorship programs, pairing seasoned managers with newer ones to facilitate knowledge transfer [11] - The ideal fund manager team should combine different levels of experience to balance growth, value, and quantitative strategies [11] - Companies are adapting their strategies based on their risk appetite, with more aggressive firms favoring new talent while conservative firms prefer experienced managers [11]