春归 ——2026年3月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 分析师：王国兴 执业证书编号：S0930524070013 分析师：郭磊 执业证书编号：S0930524060002 2026年3月2日 证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2月份资本市场在月初出现了一定程度的波动，随后持续回升。我们认为，波动的核心原因一方面与春 节前市场交易热度下行有关，另一方面与短期政策引导市场情绪降温、部分中长期资金短期流出有关。但短期波动并不影响市场长期趋势，春节后 市场逐步回升，交易热度也同步提升。 核心观点二：春季行情或将延续。春节后，市场交易热度出现季节性回升，为后续市场表现奠定了基础。同时，未来一个月市场将进入数据与政策 的密集验证期。1-2月份的一系列经济金融数据将逐步披露，为市场形成全年经济的基准预期奠定核心依据。从目前已披露的部分数据及高频数据 来看，经济仍然处于稳步高质量修复的趋势之中。结合此前披露的年报预告情况，预计后续经济与企业盈利数据将对资本市场形成有力支撑。此外， 全国两会将于3月召开，会议将明确全年政策基调 ...

作为普通投资者参与市场的重要渠道，这一年，公募基金紧跟市场节奏，整体赚钱效应拉满。尤其是随着科技、有色金属赛道"起飞"，超百只基金净值翻 倍。但与此同时，也有基金踏空，个别基金甚至下跌超过10%。 蛇年收官，马年已至。过去一年，你的基金赚钱了吗？是否跑赢了市场？ 整体业绩亮眼 蛇年资本市场的强势回暖。从重要指数的表现来看，Wind数据显示，A股市场上，上证指数、深证成指分别上涨25.58%、38.84%，创业板指数上涨 58.73%，科创50、北证50指数分别上涨53.95%、44.59%；港股表现也不俗，恒生指数上涨32.04%。此外，贵金属在蛇年的表现可谓浓墨重彩，万得白银 行业指数、万得黄金行业指数分别大涨295.37%、127.66%。 亮眼的市场表现，为基金业绩飙升奠定了坚实基础。从基金整体业绩数据来看，蛇年堪称公募基金行业的"丰收年"。 170只基金蛇年收益率超过100%，同时有15只基金净值下跌逾10%。你的产品落在哪一区域？ 投资时间网、标点财经研究员 余顺安 在刚刚过去的蛇年（2025年1月29日—2026年2月16日），A股市场走出了一轮波澜壮阔的结构性牛市，上证指数时隔十年重返4000点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a new round of upward momentum after the Spring Festival, driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and positive market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Data - Historical data from 2006 to 2025 shows a significant "Spring Festival effect," with the Shanghai Composite Index having an 80% probability of rising in the first five days and a 75% probability in the following five days after the festival [2]. - Research from multiple brokerages indicates that the market typically sees a surge in risk appetite and a transition from emotional-driven rallies to trend continuation in the weeks following the Spring Festival [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Brokerages recommend focusing on high-quality blue-chip stocks and low-volatility sectors before the festival, while suggesting a shift towards technology growth, small-cap stocks, and policy beneficiaries (such as TMT and consumer sectors) after the festival [6][7]. - The semiconductor and AI-related sectors are highlighted as key areas of interest, with expectations of continued performance due to favorable industry trends [4][8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Impact - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to catalyze policy changes that will positively impact market performance post-festival [4]. - The first two months of the year are typically a data vacuum period, but current trends indicate a positive outlook for performance improvements in various industries [4][5]. Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - While there are short-term risks such as overseas market fluctuations and sector rotation, these are viewed as temporary disturbances that are unlikely to alter the overall positive trend for February [5][6]. - The white liquor sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery as consumer demand rebounds, supported by favorable policies and improving fundamentals [7][8].

大家想过没有？在股市赚钱靠什么，其实"拿住"比什么都重要。只是，大多数人最缺乏就是耐心，他们觉得赚钱就是必须天天盈利，几天不赚钱就心慌了。 说白了，绝大多数人都是普通的上班族，股市投资与上班最大的区别就是你要忍受很长时间的亏损，不赚钱的时间，也是老板与员工的区别，承受煎熬也是 一种本事…… 1、这个位置，指数的问题有限了 不要觉得会跌到3800点，4000都很难破，这个位置的指数就是反复震荡向上，今年还会创新高，只是大家的股票与指数其实关系有限。 其实，目前的A股也好，港美股也罢都没有主线了，我们必须受市场的混沌期，这个时间节点很容易亏损，特别是3~4月份最难了。 不要去追主线，科技资产在高位你不相信就去长线持有，不过短线博弈没有问题了，小凡与大家的区别就是持有市场遗忘的科技指数等到924行情了，并不 是什么我会埋伏主线。 接下来，等待主线的切换，不会简单的切换，科技资产还会拉升出货，不过在拉升之前需要砸盘出上涨空间，比如大幅回调40~50%，之后可以翻倍拉升， 白酒、新能源、半导体、医疗等上一轮主线也是如此，连银行股都中途大幅回调过。 3、这个位置，必须有自己的交易计划。 小凡，对指数很乐观，而且自己的交易 ...

历经四年深度调整，中国房地产市场在2026丙午马年迎来历史性反转。从中央定调"着力稳定房地产市 场"，到政策组合拳密集落地；从核心城市成交量大幅反弹，到房价止跌转涨；从市场信心全面修复， 到资金面持续宽松，多重利好共振下，楼市"单边下行"时代正式终结，全面回暖已成定局。对于刚需、 改善与资产配置人群而言，当前正是政策红利最足、成本最低、风险最小的黄金窗口期，而这扇窗口， 正以肉眼可见的速度关闭。 一、政策底全面夯实：从"救市"到"稳市"，力度空前 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，房地产政策完成根本性转向，从过去被动纾困、防范风险，升级为主动 托底、激活需求、稳定预期的系统工程，政策底与市场底实现双重确认。 中央经济工作会议明确"着力稳定房地产市场"，相比往年"止跌回稳"的表述，释放出更强的稳增长信 号。政策端打出一套"降成本、松门槛、优供给"的组合拳：房贷利率维持历史低位，首套利率普遍进入 3.5%以下区间，部分城市低至"2字头"；首付比例持续下调，二套房首付门槛大幅放宽；限购限贷政策 因城施策松绑，一线城市核心区边际放松，强二线城市全面取消限制性措施；换房个税退税、增值税减 免等交易环节优惠全面延续，直接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's economy is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, supported by a complete industrial chain, a continuous release of engineering talent, and a vast domestic market [5][12] - The "New Five Flowers" of the AI era, which include semiconductors, AI applications, new energy, robotics, and AI+ innovative drugs, are expected to lead economic growth [6][13] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a critical period of "catching up to running alongside" due to domestic substitution and technological iteration [6][13] Group 2 - The current market is characterized by a structural bull market driven by industrial upgrades and economic transformation, rather than a short-term bubble fueled by capital [7][14] - The focus for 2026 will be on value differentiation, with capital increasingly concentrating on high-quality sectors and companies, supported by macroeconomic recovery and foreign investment in quality Chinese assets [7][14] - The strategy for the year should balance "defensive" value investment principles with "offensive" positioning in high-growth potential sectors, leveraging technological innovation and industrial upgrades for excess returns [7][14] Group 3 - The AI era presents significant opportunities for high-quality economic transformation in China, with the capital market poised for a value-driven expansion [8][15] - The emphasis remains on the "New Five Flowers" as the core focus for investment strategies [8][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the performance of different indices and sectors, and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying fundamentals of various investment styles to identify potential opportunities and risks in the market [2][4][10]. Market Performance - The overall market showed a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experiencing minor gains, while the CSI 500 index saw a more significant rise [2]. - The market is characterized by a rotation among different investment styles, with value stocks declining after a previous rise, and growth stocks rebounding after a decline [2][4]. - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback after three consecutive days of gains, with dividend indices showing less volatility compared to technology stocks [2][4]. Earnings and Valuation Insights - In 2024, A-share companies are expected to see a year-on-year decline in earnings, leading to a low valuation star rating of 5.9 [2][4]. - By 2025, earnings growth for A-share companies is projected to be between 5% and 10%, with specific sectors like technology and healthcare showing significant growth rates [4][10]. - The article categorizes companies based on their earnings growth rates into three tiers: 1. **First Tier**: Companies in a booming cycle with earnings growth exceeding 20%, such as A-share technology and Hong Kong healthcare stocks [4]. 2. **Second Tier**: Companies in a recovery phase with earnings growth between a few percent to over 10%, including dividend and low-volatility stocks [4]. 3. **Third Tier**: Companies in a downturn, such as food and beverage sectors, with minimal growth [4]. Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across different styles, especially during market downturns, to mitigate risks and capture potential future gains as fundamentals improve [4][10]. - It suggests that patience is required for investments, particularly in low-valued stocks that may take time to recover [5][10]. - The article also provides a valuation table for dividend indices, indicating which stocks are undervalued and suitable for investment [5][7]. Conclusion - The article concludes with a focus on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the fundamentals of different sectors to make informed investment decisions, highlighting the potential for significant returns in the future as market conditions evolve [4][10].

Group 1 - The characteristics of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks include rapid price increases, often referred to as "lightning-fast bulls," with significant gains occurring in short periods after prolonged downturns [5][6] - Since September 2024, the CSI All Share Index has risen approximately 66% by late January 2026, with three major upward waves contributing to a total increase of about 71% [7][8] - Bull markets are characterized by intermittent pullbacks, often following a pattern of "three up, one down," indicating that while the market trends upward, it also experiences significant corrections [10][11] Group 2 - A structural bull market is common, where only certain sectors or stocks experience significant gains while others may remain stagnant or decline [13] - Historical examples show that only in 2007 was there a broad-based bull market; other periods have been led by specific sectors, such as large-cap value stocks or small-cap growth stocks [13] - The sources of returns for index funds include valuation changes, earnings growth, and dividends, with long-term returns primarily driven by the growth of listed companies' earnings [15][17][18] Group 3 - Investors should avoid chasing trends and frequent trading, as most investors tend to buy at market peaks during bull runs, leading to poor long-term performance [28][29] - Patience is emphasized as a virtue in investing, with the market expected to trend upward over the long term despite short-term fluctuations [33][34] - The future performance of undervalued stocks is closely tied to the growth rate of the companies' earnings, with sectors like technology and healthcare currently showing strong growth potential [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing a notable surge, particularly highlighted by the recent issuance of Shangtai Technology's convertible bond, which has a large issuance scale and a high credit rating [1][4]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Market Overview - Shangtai Technology's convertible bond, Shangtai Convertible Bond, was listed for trading on February 5, with an issuance scale of 1.734 billion yuan, which is considered relatively large in recent times [1]. - The bond has an AA+ rating, indicating a high level of creditworthiness [1]. - The current stock price of the underlying asset is 75.90 yuan, while the conversion price is set at 84.71 yuan, resulting in a conversion value of only 89.60 yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The convertible bond market is currently experiencing a "small but beautiful" bull market, driven by the strong performance of small and mid-cap stocks, which have gained traction since the market style shifted post-September 24 [4]. - Despite the overall market sentiment improving and the convertible bond index rising, many ordinary investors have not felt the benefits of this bull market due to their heavy investments in "core assets," which have been underperforming [4][6]. - Investor behavior shows a tendency to buy more during price declines while hesitating to purchase during price increases, indicating a potential misalignment with market trends [6].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint one: The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in January 2026, with major broad-based indices rising, supported by long-term capital and stabilizing economic expectations [4] - Core viewpoint two: The spring market is still expected to be promising, although a short-term correction may occur before the Spring Festival due to tightening liquidity and decreased trading enthusiasm [5] - Core viewpoint three: In the spring market, small-cap stocks typically perform better, with a focus on growth and cyclical sectors, particularly in electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong market is advised to maintain a "growth + value" barbell strategy, benefiting from earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and supportive policies, with a structural rebound expected in the first quarter [7]