结构性牛市

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沪指站稳3800点,资金布局上证综指,上证综指ETF(510760)连续4日净流入2亿元!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 07:05
近期指数上涨幅度较大,情绪影响占主导地位,而基本面支撑仍然缺位。9月3日之后行情或有所降温, 全面牛市有概率转向结构性,市场将从短期对动量、资金面的关注回归至对基本面和业绩的验证。在流 动性支持下牛市有望延续,在中期维度上建议对估值较低的绩优成长保持关注,回避前期过热的方向。 相关机构表示,市场情绪全面转好,昨日成交额进一步放大至3.18万亿元。受美联储降息预期、上海房 地产新政、高盛大幅上调寒武纪目标价等多重利好消息推动,市场走出加速上涨行情。此前我们提示过 可以适当转向科技、成长板块,近日两创指数连续大涨已反映了资金对这些方向的系统性重估。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过上证综指ETF的联接基金(011320)把握A股投资机会。 注:如提及个股仅供参考,不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考,不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动,不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考,不 构成任何投资建议,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品,请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...
放量!今日市场情绪指数来了
第一财经· 2025-08-25 11:46
2025.08. 25 市场结构性牛市特征显著,科技主线(算力硬 件、CPO概念、AI芯片)领涨,周期与消费(稀 士永磁、白酒、贵金属)低位补涨,政策催化下 地产股表现突出。前期强势的游戏、影视板块出 现回调,显示资金在高景气赛道间快速切换。 两市成交额 2 14 万亿元 两市成交额放量破3万亿元,创历史次高,连续9 个交易日突破2万亿元,刷新历史纪录,表明市 场活跃度达历史峰值,其中科技板块贡献超40% 的成交量。 资金情绪 A胶巾功呈现出重价介才,结倒分化符位。二天佰致集伞刨阶段新局,沪指犬啦 3800点整数关口,创2015年以来新高,深证成指、创业板指均刷新2023年以来高 点,科技与政策双主线驱动指数。 3349家上涨 涨跌停比 主力资金净流出 5623 散户资金净流入 机构调仓博弈,科技内部分化,大幅加仓AI算力、CPO及稀土永磁板块,对半导体设备股转为谨慎,政策预期与 盈利修复的双重驱动下,布局有色金属、地产链等顺周期板块。散户谨慎跟随,资金集中流向低位板块(地产、 消费),回避高估值科技股,显示风险偏好保守。 散户情绪 52.29% 上 证 指 数 3883.56 1月18日 10月9日 ERI ...
最新降息预期推动山寨币全面爆发,XBIT平台迎来交易热潮
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 03:13
BOSS Wallet 8月23日讯,美联储降息预期持续升温,山寨币市场迎来全面爆发。以太坊创下历史新 高,带动整个山寨币板块出现强劲上涨,多个主流项目涨幅超过20%。在,山寨币交易量大幅激增,用 户更加关注具有长期投资价值的优质项目。 美联储降息预期助推市场情绪高涨 据BOSS钱包APP数据显示,美联储在9月降息25个基点的概率已高达83.6%。分析师解读认为,鲍威尔 讲话表明美联储首要任务已经转向支持劳动力市场,风险平衡的变化可能需要调整政策,因此就业报告 将决定未来的降息节奏。 从历史经验看,美联储的降息周期往往能为风险资产带来显著的流动性支撑。特别是预防式降息,通常 发生在经济尚未全面衰退之前,更多是为了对冲风险,往往能为市场注入新一轮增长动能。当前劳动力 市场疲软、通胀已显缓和迹象,整体环境更接近预防式降息而非危机背景。 BOSS Wallet报道,彭博经济学家Anna Wong对鲍威尔言论给出不同解读,认为市场对讲话的反应可能 过度乐观。她指出,鲍威尔完美示范了如何在政治压力与鹰派立场之间"走钢丝",既要给出降息暗示, 又要为鹰派回应埋下伏笔。 图片来源:BOSS Wallet 以太坊引领山寨币全 ...
不出意外,A股会复制2020年行情了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 15:28
800点的涨幅,是不是与2020年3月份到7月份的走势很像,一直都是震荡向上,大家一直不看好行情,一直等回调。当时是利用国外的病毒爆发砸盘,这次 是利用关税…… 无论如何,最终大家的选择都一样,在上涨的前夕割肉了,或者上涨过程中卖飞了。总之,不是市场的指数没涨,也不是股票没涨,就是大家自己的节奏乱 了。 不要说只涨指数,其实很多股票也涨幅很好,超过10月8日高点的股票都近半了。只是非常的极端,涝的涝死,旱的旱死,上涨的那些不敢买,自己持有的 永远不涨。 目前,行情不像2007年,2015年的疯牛,反而很像2020年的行情了。结构性牛市,指数涨幅很多,个股的盈利效应不好,不是行情不好,是要么踏空了,要 么卖飞了。 不出意外,下周的成交量随时可以突破3万亿了,树欲静而风不止了。大家想慢慢涨,市场的成交量如此大,怎么可能慢慢拉升,一定是快速拉升,诱多出 货。 高位股出货,涨得最多的是科技股,那么急跌的时候也是它们,4月初就这样了,下次还是如此,科技的属性就是暴涨暴跌,想挣大利润就要承受大波动。 A股会复制2020年行情了 大概率会与2020年行情差不多了,依旧等待证券的加速,目前就盯着它的节奏,只要没有加速之前,大 ...
这一轮走势,会复制10年前的行情吗?
大胡子说房· 2025-08-23 04:51
今天大A延续了上涨趋势,日内最高价逼近3800点,成交量连续多日冲上2万亿。 最近一个多月大A的连续上涨,似乎重新唤醒了菜场大妈的炒股基因。 热搜上的股市热搜也开始逐渐增加,讨论越来越多。 大A的热度,甚至都吸引了韩国人入场。 数据显示: 而这一轮牛市,起点和10年前差不多,都是3200点。 这不禁会让很多人本能地产生一个疑问: 这一轮大A的强势行情,会不会复制2015年那一波行情的轨迹,先来个牛市,然后迅速大跌回到原点? 毕竟十年前的教训,实在太过惨烈。 今天的文章,我就给大家做一个比较深度的分析。 韩国人对中国股票的持仓量,从2024年末的190.83亿元人民币上涨至244.75亿元,增长近三成。 这样的市场热度,不禁让很多人想起10年前2015年那一波牛市行情。 2015年的牛市,是东大历史上最大规模的一波牛市,但也是最大规模的一次牛转熊。 股市从3200点涨到最高5178点,随后半年内迅速跌回到了2638点,最大跌幅达到49%。 总市值蒸发 25.5万亿元 ,缩水幅度达 36%。 30%的个股跌幅超过一半,超95%的投资者在那一轮牛市转熊市的行情中亏损,不少人甚至是输光身家。 大家如果能把文章看完,你 ...
韩国人都开始买入大A,牛真的要来了?
大胡子说房· 2025-08-21 12:28
Core Viewpoint - The current bullish trend in the A-share market is reminiscent of the 2015 bull market, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the rapid decline that followed that period [5][6][13]. Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a continuous rise, with the index approaching 3800 points and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1]. - The interest in the A-share market has increased significantly, even attracting foreign investors, particularly from South Korea, whose holdings in Chinese stocks rose from 19.083 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 24.475 billion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 30% [2][4]. Comparison with 2015 Bull Market - The 2015 bull market was primarily driven by excess liquidity, with significant contributions from foreign capital and unregulated leverage [7][8]. - In contrast, the current market is supported by domestic government funds and institutional leverage, with foreign capital's role being replaced by more stable domestic sources [9][10]. - The risk management capabilities of the financial system have improved since 2015, with stricter regulations on foreign capital and leverage, reducing the likelihood of a similar crash [12][11]. Market Structure - The current market resembles a structural bull market, similar to early 2021, where only specific sectors, such as technology, are experiencing significant gains while others lag behind [14][15]. - The government is likely to maintain a slow bull market strategy, which may prevent widespread participation from retail investors and lead to a rotation of funds among different sectors [16][15]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to either hold onto indices related to the market or strategically position themselves in sectors that have not yet experienced significant gains [17]. - The current phase is viewed as the initial stage of a bull market, with opportunities for those who can recognize market signals and trends [17].
统计称股民今年人均赚2万
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-21 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high and the total market capitalization surpassing 101 trillion yuan, marking a substantial increase from the previous year [2][3]. Market Performance - The A-share market's total market capitalization increased by 15.63 trillion yuan this year, reaching 101.18 trillion yuan as of August 21 [2]. - Personal investors hold approximately 33% of the shares, resulting in a net increase of 5.16 trillion yuan in market value for individual investors, equating to an average profit of about 21,500 yuan per investor this year [3]. Fund Performance - A significant number of funds have returned to profitability, with over 1,100 active equity funds reaching historical net asset value highs in recent trading days [4][5]. - The Wind data indicates that 98% of the 4,539 active equity funds have generated positive returns this year, with an average return rate of 20.14% [6]. - The Wen index for active equity funds has risen by 21.92% this year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 15 percentage points [6]. Sector Analysis - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors have shown particularly strong performance, with ten funds achieving over 100% returns this year [7]. - Fund managers are generally optimistic about the market's medium to long-term trends, with many increasing their positions in technology stocks [13]. Fund Redemption Trends - Although there has been some redemption pressure, it has eased recently, with some funds experiencing large redemptions not due to profit-taking but because clients feel the funds are not performing quickly enough [9]. - Concerns about potential market corrections exist, as historical patterns suggest that rapid market increases can lead to significant pullbacks [10]. Investment Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI, semiconductors, and healthcare, while also considering value sectors like finance and insurance [14][15]. - The current market is characterized by a structural bull market, with a preference for high-dividend and high-growth assets [14].
写在新高之后:盈利的持仓何时考虑止盈?又该如何止盈?
天天基金网· 2025-08-20 11:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of profit-taking strategies in a structurally differentiated market, emphasizing the need for investors to balance between realizing gains and maintaining exposure to potential future profits [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Essence of Profit-Taking - The fundamental logic of investing is to buy low and sell high, but many investors struggle due to market uncertainty and psychological factors like loss aversion and disposition effect [6][7]. - Current market conditions show significant structural differentiation, with some sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals performing well, while others like consumer goods and real estate lag behind [8][15]. - Historical examples from 2007 and 2015 illustrate that even in bull markets, significant corrections can occur, highlighting the importance of strategic profit-taking [10][15]. 2. Rational Strategies for Profit-Taking - **Target Profit Method**: Set a target return (e.g., +15%, +20%, +30%) for selling part or all of the position. This method is straightforward but can lead to missed opportunities if targets are set too low or too high [17][20]. - **Drawdown Profit-Taking Method**: Establish a maximum drawdown threshold (e.g., -10%, -15%) to lock in profits when the threshold is reached, balancing risk tolerance and fund type [22][24]. - **Index Valuation Percentile Method**: Use historical valuation percentiles (e.g., PE, PB ratios) to determine when to sell, with high percentiles indicating overvaluation and low percentiles indicating undervaluation [26][27]. 3. After Profit-Taking: Reinvestment Strategies - **Rebalancing**: Adjust the asset allocation back to the original target if stock exposure has increased significantly due to market gains [30]. - **Seeking New Opportunities**: Identify undervalued investment opportunities in the current market environment [31]. - **Building Cash Reserves**: Maintain some profits in cash to capitalize on better investment opportunities in the future [32]. 4. Conclusion on Profit-Taking - The essence of profit-taking is risk management rather than market prediction, with a focus on understanding personal investment logic and risk tolerance [33][35].
指数超越3674.4点,市场为何感受不到赚钱效应?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 01:43
但从投资者的反应来看,大多数投资者对上证指数收复3674.4点反应平淡。之所以如此,究其原因主要有两点。一是上证指数收复3674.4点并不令人意 外。因为在"9.24"行情之后,A股一直在走指数行情,有人将此称之为"指数牛市",在国家队资金及指数基金以及一些机构投资者的推动下,以银行股为 代表的指数权重股股价被稳步推高,因此带动指数稳步上扬。比如,上证指数从4月7日的最低点3040.69点,一直上涨到了8月13日的最高点3688.63点,指 数大涨了660点,涨幅超过20%。而8月14日,指数甚至一度站上3700点。 自从去年10月8日上证指数创下3674.4点的高点之后,这个高点就一直是市场仰望的目标。8月13日,市场在经过了10个月的行情演变之后,终于收复了 3674.4点高地,这确实是一件可喜可贺的事情。 而且还有约34.1%的股票也即约1900只股票的股价是没有上涨,甚至是下跌的,其中有172只个股的股价甚至跌破了"9.24"行情的起点,创出了"9.24"行情 以来的新低。而这些下跌与股价创出新低的个股,切切实实让投资者蒙受了不小的投资损失。 所以,尽管8月13日上证指数站在了3674.4点之上,但本 ...
【金麒麟优秀投顾访谈】财通证券投顾吴胤超:ETF模拟组合采用“行业轮动”策略 未来行业服务蕴含四大挑战
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-08-13 08:21
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese wealth management industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with investment advisors playing a crucial role in guiding asset allocation for clients [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The current market is characterized by a "structural bull market," with significant differences in returns across industries, making rotation strategies effective for capturing excess returns [2][3] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings and providing a solid foundation for market support [3] - Northbound capital saw a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, while financing balances increased by 75 billion yuan since April, reflecting a trend of retail savings entering the market through public funds [3] Group 2: Investment Advisor Challenges and Opportunities - Investment advisors face challenges in transforming service models from "sell-side sales" to "buy-side advisory," requiring a restructuring of income sources and balancing short-term gains with long-term asset allocation [4][5] - The integration of technology is essential, as AI can replace basic analysis tasks, but advisors must enhance their skills in human-machine collaboration to meet clients' emotional needs [4][5] - The demand for cross-disciplinary knowledge is increasing, particularly in areas like retirement, taxation, and cross-border assets, highlighting the need for composite talent in the advisory field [4] Group 3: Future Development of Investment Advisory Services - The core path for enhancing service capabilities involves shifting to a client-centric approach, focusing on account-level returns and satisfaction, and building deep trust with clients [5] - The future of advisory services will rely on "human-machine collaboration," where AI handles standardized processes, allowing advisors to focus on emotional support and client relationships [5] - The goal is to enhance both the financial and emotional value of client accounts, addressing the issue of market gains not translating into client profits, and moving towards a new stage of inclusive finance [5]