特朗普上台后就盯上了委内瑞拉的石油资源，本想通过制裁和军事行动切断对手的供应，顺便逼中国多 掏钱买油，结果中国买家直接不接盘。 这事从2025年开始发酵，到2026年1月，美国直接动手抓人，石油贸易格局大变。中国作为大买家，本 来就没那么依赖委内瑞拉的货，库存足、选择多，转身就找其他来源。 特朗普的策略看似强势，实际暴露了市场规律的硬道理，政治干预碰上经济算盘，往往落空。 但制裁一升级，运输链条乱套，油轮被拦截，费用直线上升。卖方只好把成本转嫁，报价从每桶优惠15 美元缩水到13美元。 中国买家一看，每桶多出2美元的风险溢价，加上封锁不确定性，直接摇头不干。特朗普团队以为中国 会慌张接受条件，结果中国有充足储备缓冲。 数据显示，中国和马来西亚周边海域浮动原油达8200万桶，够用几个月。加上陆上库存，中国能源供应 稳稳的，不用急着接高价货。 制裁升级背后的石油角力 特朗普2025年1月就职后，迅速收紧对委内瑞拉的政策。起初是取消拜登时期给雪佛龙的豁免许可， 2025年3月又威胁对买委内瑞拉石油的国家加征25%关税。 这招针对中国，因为中国买了委内瑞拉出口油的大头，2025年占比超80%。美国想通过次级制裁吓退买 ...

公开数据显示，电商女装退货率高达50%至60%，直播的退货率甚至达80%以上。其中，很多退货并非 质量问题，而是藏着吊牌穿几天之后，再无理由退货"薅羊毛"。所以，商家才做大吊牌，让人无法不剪 吊牌就穿出去。或许，这并非"下策"，而是远好于平台提升退货门槛的"上策"。 女装退货率高，其实是电商模式决定的。屏幕上看到的和穿在身上，总是不同的，所以很多消费者下 单，先收货、试穿，再决定退不退。退货，实际上起到了实体店试衣间的作用。 正因为有了便利的退货保障，很多消费者才敢买，甚至冲动型地买，反正可以"先试一试，不行再退"。 当退货不那么便利，消费者就不敢轻易下单，所以便利的退货背后，是繁荣的市场。 （来源：衢州日报） 转自：衢州日报 刘远举 近期，"巨型吊牌防退货"登上热搜，很多衣服的吊牌做成了A4纸大小。商家坦言，出此下策，是为了 应对高退货率。 硬币都有两面，"薅羊毛"随之产生。除了女装退货率高，演出服装不剪吊牌，使用后退回的情况，近年 来也屡见不鲜。 商家希望卖出后，退货门槛越高越好。退货麻烦，消费者就不退了，所以商家就抱团呼吁提高退货门 槛。这个舆论压力之下，今年4月，多个电商平台宣布提高退货门槛，全面取消 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers initially felt relief after China's commitment to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, with an average annual import of 25 million tons over the next three years, but this optimism quickly faded as actual purchases did not materialize [1][4] - The significant tariff disparity, with U.S. soybeans facing a 13% tariff compared to just 3% for Brazilian soybeans, has rendered U.S. soybeans uncompetitive in price, leading to a lack of large-scale purchases from China [3][4] - The U.S. administration's conflation of political promises with commercial realities has created a fundamental misunderstanding in trade relations, as China emphasizes adherence to WTO rules and market principles [4][9] Trade Dynamics - U.S. soybean prices must be $45 to $50 per ton cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for Chinese buyers to consider purchasing, but U.S. farmers are unable to lower prices due to high inventory and low market prices [3][6] - China's soybean inventory has reached a three-year high due to prior large purchases from South America, making it less likely for Chinese buyers to purchase U.S. soybeans at higher prices [3][6] - The U.S. agricultural sector is increasingly vocal about the need to decouple soybean trade from political issues, recognizing that stable market conditions are essential for survival [6][9] Competitive Landscape - Brazil is rapidly expanding its infrastructure, such as ports and railways, which enhances its competitive edge in soybean exports, while U.S. farmers face challenges in maintaining market share [6][7] - The potential for adverse weather conditions in Brazil could impact global soybean prices, presenting a possible opportunity for U.S. soybeans, but relying on such factors indicates a weakness in trade strategy [7][9] - China's diversification of soybean sources, including Argentina and Russia, is creating a more complex supply chain that reduces reliance on U.S. soybeans [7][9]

Core Insights - The international soybean market is experiencing a significant commercial competition, with the U.S. soybean market losing ground to Brazil and Argentina due to trade tensions and pricing strategies [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The shift in market dynamics began in May when China halted large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans amid renewed trade disputes, leading to a surge in Brazilian soybean imports to China [4][6]. - In the first eight months of the year, Brazil accounted for 71.6% of China's soybean imports, while the U.S. share dropped to approximately 20% [6]. Pricing Strategy Missteps - Brazilian suppliers attempted to increase profits by raising prices, with soybean prices at the Port of Paranaguá exceeding U.S. prices by $66.1 per ton, marking a four-year high in price differentials [8]. - By early October, some Brazilian companies set premiums as high as 270 cents per bushel, significantly above reasonable levels, and adopted a stockpiling strategy instead of clearing inventories [9]. Shift to Argentina - In response to Brazil's price hikes, Chinese buyers swiftly redirected their orders to Argentina, securing 1.3 million tons of soybeans within 48 hours [3][11]. - Argentina's government eliminated export taxes on soybeans, enhancing its price competitiveness and aligning with China's supply needs [11][13]. Lessons Learned - The transfer of 1.3 million tons of orders from Brazil to Argentina has caused significant disruption in the Brazilian market, prompting a reassessment of previously optimistic export forecasts [16][19]. - The situation illustrates the importance of sustainable business practices and the risks associated with short-term profit-seeking behaviors in international trade [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the G7 and its allies in countering China's dominance in the rare earth market, highlighting the limitations of political alliances against market realities [3][10]. Group 1: G7's Response to China's Rare Earth Regulations - Following China's new rare earth export regulations, the U.S. led a coalition of G7, EU, India, and Australia to discuss joint measures [3]. - The G7's plan includes setting a price floor for rare earths to stimulate domestic mining, which contradicts basic resource trade logic [5]. - The U.S. claims that it will communicate with other "democratic countries" in Asia, but historical attempts at similar alliances have failed to resolve resource challenges [3][10]. Group 2: Structural Advantages of China - China controls 92% of the processing capacity for rare earths, giving it a structural advantage in price setting [5]. - The timeline for developing domestic rare earth mines in the U.S. is approximately 29 years, making it impractical to meet current demands [5]. - G7's goal to achieve 50% self-sufficiency in critical minerals by 2030 is unrealistic given the current 60% shortfall faced by European automakers [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Shifts - Major mining CEOs in the West acknowledge that China's technological and pricing advantages in rare earths are irreplaceable [7]. - There is a noticeable shift in global trade practices, with countries like India and Chile increasing their use of the Chinese yuan for resource transactions, indicating a weakening of the dollar's dominance [7]. - Companies like Tesla and BMW continue to invest in China, while Apple’s CEO has committed to expanding investments in the Chinese market despite U.S. pressures [7]. Group 4: Implications for G7 Allies - G7 allies face a dilemma: aligning with U.S. pressure on China could jeopardize their own industries reliant on rare earths, risking cost disadvantages and potential relocation [9]. - The article suggests that G7 countries must make rational decisions in light of their dependencies on rare earths [9]. Group 5: Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The G7's collective response to China's rare earth regulations reflects a Cold War mentality that fails to address market realities [10]. - Historical evidence shows that alliances without shared interests are likely to disintegrate, and interventions that contradict market principles are destined to fail [10]. - The core of the rare earth competition lies in who controls the entire supply chain and market influence, rather than political alignments [10].

Group 1 - The core idea is that identifiable patterns exist in market behavior, whether in short-term fluctuations or long-term trends, and recognizing these patterns can lead to easier profit realization [1] - Understanding the market requires a deeper recognition that combines market behavior with human psychology, which can lead to unique trading methods and sustainable profit models [3] - Trend continuation is fundamentally driven by market consensus and collective emotions, explaining the strong persistence of trends, which often exceed the expectations of most traders [4] Group 2 - Missing out on trend opportunities often stems from distrust in established trends and a lack of understanding of how trends initiate, with trends typically emerging after periods of consolidation [5] - The essence of trend trading lies in maintaining sufficient patience and belief, recognizing trends decisively when they form, and continuing to trust them as they develop [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices showed mixed results, with 4,171 stocks declining and 1,177 stocks rising, indicating cautious market sentiment as trading volume fell below 2 trillion [1] - The market is currently in a "sensitive period" due to upcoming stock index futures settlement and ETF options expiration, which historically leads to increased volatility [1] Industry Analysis: Coal Sector - The coal mining and washing industry is experiencing a complete cycle from 2021 to 2024, with revenues peaking at 3.56 trillion in 2022 and projected to decline to 3.16 trillion by 2024, reflecting a drop of over 40% in profits [4][11] - The economic growth rate in China is expected to slow from 8.1% in 2021 to around 5.0% in 2024, significantly impacting coal demand due to structural adjustments in the economy [6][8] Industry Analysis: Alcohol Sector - The "old liquor stocks," characterized by declining performance, have seen a rebound, but the underlying issues remain unchanged, with most companies in this category failing to capitalize on the broader market rally [2] - The high-end liquor segment maintains stability due to brand strength, while mid-tier and lower-tier segments face challenges from shrinking demand and high inventory levels, leading to increased industry polarization [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious during the upcoming volatility window and to avoid chasing trends without thorough analysis [11] - The focus should be on identifying structural opportunities within industries, particularly those adapting to the "dual carbon" goals, rather than relying solely on traditional price increases [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by various market factors such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, and central banks' increased gold purchases [2][4]. - Gold has shown extreme price movements, with a notable increase from 3880 to 3976, nearing the 4000 mark, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4]. - Caution is advised regarding potential corrections, as previous patterns suggest that after significant gains, a pullback may occur, particularly if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 2 - Silver has risen to 48.7, with expectations of reaching 49 or 50, but caution is warranted as it approaches resistance levels [5]. - The current price of silver is around 48.3, and a pullback is anticipated if it fails to maintain above 48.8 [5]. - Crude oil has shown volatility, with a recent high near 62, but it closed at 61.8, indicating a rebound demand despite some downward movement [5].

Core Insights - The core issue in the ride-hailing industry revolves around the commission structure, which significantly differs from traditional taxi services, leading to driver dissatisfaction and misunderstandings of market dynamics [1][8] Commission Structure - In August 2025, major ride-hailing platforms like Didi and T3 announced a reduction in commission rates from a maximum of 29% to 27% to ensure driver income and promote sustainable industry growth [2] - The discussion around commission rates during Didi's open day highlighted that drivers' primary concern is income, often comparing current earnings to those from earlier years when the industry was nascent [2][3] Driver Income and Employment - Despite challenges, the income for ride-hailing drivers remains relatively decent, with an average monthly income of 7,623 yuan, ranking second among six blue-collar job categories [3] - In first-tier cities, Didi drivers can earn around 11,000 yuan per month, while electric vehicle drivers in Ningbo report profits exceeding 7,400 yuan monthly [4] Market Dynamics and Driver Expectations - The influx of new drivers into the ride-hailing sector continues, with Guangzhou reporting an increase of approximately 5,800 registered drivers in one month, indicating a growing workforce despite concerns over income [5] - Drivers often have unrealistic expectations regarding income stability and pricing, failing to recognize the impact of market dynamics and the influx of new drivers on their earnings [6][9] Understanding Market Principles - A lack of understanding of market principles leads to frustration among drivers, who may call for price increases without recognizing the implications of such actions on demand [6][8] - The emergence of driver opinion leaders, who leverage social media to communicate and influence driver sentiments, reflects the evolving dynamics within the ride-hailing industry [8] Broader Economic Implications - On a larger scale, the adherence to market principles is crucial for economic recovery, yet misperceptions about market operations can hinder progress and exacerbate feelings of inequality among the workforce [9]

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is experiencing significant growth, with China's total output value expected to exceed 8 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive years, while facing structural challenges in high-end technology reliance [2][7]. Global Competitive Landscape and China's Positioning - The global new materials industry has formed a stable competitive structure with the US, Japan, and Europe in the first tier, holding absolute advantages in core technologies and market share. China, along with South Korea and Russia, is in the second tier, rapidly catching up but still heavily reliant on imports for high-end polymers and electronic chemicals [4][5]. Investment Drivers in New Materials - The investment logic in the new materials sector is based on a "demand-policy-technology" triangle model, where market demand, supportive policies, and technological breakthroughs interact to determine investment value and timing [10]. Market Demand - The rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle industry is driving diverse demand for new materials, with revenue in structural materials expected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year in 2024 [11]. - The semiconductor and display industries are creating a growing market for high-end electronic chemicals, with significant progress in domestic production of photolithography materials [12]. Policy Support - China has established a comprehensive policy support system for the new materials industry, including financial backing through the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which has seen 51 new materials companies raise over 43 billion yuan [13]. - The standardization efforts by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are crucial for promoting the industrialization of new materials [14]. Technological Breakthroughs - Domestic companies are making significant strides in high-end polymer materials, with breakthroughs in POE and PI production expected to reduce import dependency [16][23]. - Patent layout and intellectual property protection are critical for competitive advantage, with domestic firms strengthening their patent portfolios in key areas [17]. Investment Value in Specific Segments High-End Polymer Materials - High-end polymer materials are characterized by high import dependency, with POE and PI showing import reliance rates of 95% and 85% respectively, presenting clear investment opportunities for domestic production [20]. Carbon Fiber Materials - The carbon fiber sector is transitioning from capacity expansion to quality improvement, with a notable increase in the production of high-end T700/T800 grade products [25]. - The demand for carbon fiber in wind power and aerospace applications is expected to grow, providing investment opportunities in companies that can produce high-performance products [27]. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector is experiencing a "gradient replacement" trend, with varying levels of domestic production across different product categories, highlighting investment opportunities in companies that can meet the growing demand for high-purity materials [28]. Biobased New Materials - The biobased materials market is projected to grow significantly, driven by policy mandates and decreasing production costs, with a focus on biobased BDO and PA showing promising investment potential [35][36]. Superconducting Materials - The superconducting materials market is expected to reach $28 billion in 2024, with investment opportunities centered around high-temperature superconductors and their applications in energy and medical fields [38][39]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with investment opportunities in electrolyte materials and high-nickel cathodes, as the industry shifts towards higher energy density and safety [40][44].