国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦呼吁将提高消费占比作为"硬任务"，建议"十五五"期间每年提升1 个百分点；中国社科院学部委员、国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬指出，当前资金"脱媒"趋势为资本 市场带来新机遇；中国社科院学部委员蔡昉强调需统筹促就业、增收入、稳预期，实现"五个结合"；中 国人民大学国家一级教授，CMF联合创始人、联席主席杨瑞龙则指出，需立足中长期视角应对短期经 济挑战，通过制度创新推动高质量发展。专家普遍认为，尽管面临压力，中国经济长期向好的基本面未 变，需通过结构性改革与创新激发内生活力。 活动上，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长、CMF主要成员刘晓光代表课题组发布了《CMF 中国宏观经济分析与预测报告(2025-2026)》。报告认为，2025年中国经济奋力寻求突破，基本实现预期 发展目标。基于定性分析和定量预测，报告提出十方面二十余条政策建议，包括建议以2026年"十五 五"开启为契机，设置跨周期组合目标"4.5%—5%的实际GDP增长目标+1%—3%的居民消费价格指数 (CPI)目标+5%以上的名义GDP增长目标"等。 李扬：资金"脱媒"为资本市场发展创造更好发展条件 在日前举行的中 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses key recommendations from prominent economists at the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) regarding China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and beyond, emphasizing the importance of structural reforms and innovation to stimulate domestic vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun advocates for increasing the consumption share of GDP by 1 percentage point annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need to stabilize and expand terminal demand to boost investment [6][8]. - The report presented by Liu Xiaoguang suggests setting cross-cycle targets for economic growth, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% and a CPI target of 1%-3% for 2026 [2]. Group 2: Financial Factors and Market Opportunities - Li Yang identifies four major financial factors influencing economic operations from 2026 onwards: changes in social financing structure, declining interest rates, new opportunities in capital markets, and a new paradigm for monetary policy [4]. - The phenomenon of "disintermediation" is noted as a positive trend, with funds flowing out of the banking system, which could create better conditions for capital market development [3][4]. Group 3: Employment and Income Distribution - Cai Fang emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to promote employment, increase income, and stabilize expectations, proposing a framework of "five combinations" to address these issues [10][11]. - The focus on increasing per capita income and improving income distribution is critical, with suggestions to enhance labor remuneration and expand public services to reduce disparities [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Strategy - Yang Ruilong stresses the importance of addressing short-term economic challenges with a long-term perspective, advocating for the modernization of the industrial system and the integration of technological innovation [14][15]. - The article concludes that despite current pressures, the fundamental trend of China's economy remains positive, with potential for sustainable growth through structural reforms and innovation [1][15].