1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue range - bound consolidation due to the combination of strong expectations and weak reality, with the domestic macro - environment maintaining a loose monetary policy expectation, low and slightly increasing weekly production of rebar, declining apparent demand, and increasing inventory. It is recommended to consider short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3080 - 3180 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control. Also, considering the multi - empty intertwined situation, it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money call and put options simultaneously [9][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 30th, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Rebar production increased to 199.83 tons, up 0.28 tons from the previous week and 22.16 tons year - on - year. Apparent demand declined to 176.4 tons, down 9.12 tons from the previous week but up 168.65 tons year - on - year. Total rebar inventory increased to 475.53 tons, up 23.43 tons from the previous week but down 177.6 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, down 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and 9.53 percentage points year - on - year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the US President planned to announce the Fed Chair nominee. Domestically, many real estate companies were no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, and the National Bureau of Statistics would promote statistical reforms. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore supply was stable with high port inventory, and iron ore prices might continue weak range - bound consolidation. Coking coal supply was expected to tighten, and coking coal and coke prices might be strong. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract continued range - bound consolidation, with technical support at 3100. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA tested the 0 - axis support, and the green bar was stable. - **Market view**: Considering the macro and industrial aspects, the steel price was expected to continue range - bound consolidation. It was recommended to trade the RB2605 contract in the 3080 - 3180 yuan/ton range [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the RB2605 contract was range - bound and weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 30th, the price difference was - 49 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [15]. 3.2.2. Rebar Warehouse Receipt and Net Position - On January 30th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipt volume was 38283 tons, down 1204 tons from the previous week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 67161 lots, an increase of 328 lots from the previous week [22]. 3.2.3. Spot Price and Basis - On January 30th, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week; the national average price was 3317 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price. On the 30th, the basis was 152 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous week [28]. 3.3. Upstream Market 3.3.1. Furnace Charge Price - On January 30th, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, down 8 yuan/dry ton from the previous week. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [32]. 3.3.2. Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From January 19th - 25th, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2625.5 tons, a decrease of 272.2 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2530.0 tons, a decrease of 129.7 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1238.1 tons, a decrease of 204.8 tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17758.26 tons, an increase of 261.73 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 347.71 tons, an increase of 27.19 tons [36]. 3.3.3. Coking Plant Capacity and Inventory - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 70.75%, a decrease of 0.66%; the daily coke output was 49.51 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons; the coke inventory was 43.99 tons, an increase of 1.74 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 1035.34 tons, an increase of 40.13 tons; the available days of coking coal were 15.7 days, an increase of 0.75 days [40]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply - side - **Crude steel production**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production in 2025 was 96081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. - **Rebar production**: On January 30th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and 1.02 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 0.83 percentage points year - on - year. The daily hot metal output was 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.53 tons year - on - year. On January 29th, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material manufacturers was 199.83 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous week and 22.16 tons year - on - year. - **Electric furnace steel**: On January 29th, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building material manufacturers was 43.8%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week and 4.85% year - on - year. This week, the average operating rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.66%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 62.17 percentage points year - on - year. - **Rebar inventory**: On January 29th, the in - plant inventory of 137 building material manufacturers was 149.13 tons, an increase of 0.15 tons from the previous week but a decrease of 53.72 tons year - on - year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 326.4 tons, an increase of 23.28 tons from the previous week but a decrease of 123.88 tons year - on - year. The total rebar inventory was 475.53 tons, an increase of 23.43 tons from the previous week but a decrease of 177.6 tons year - on - year [44][47][50][53]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - In 2025, national real estate development investment was 82788 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The housing construction area was 659890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0%; the new housing start - up area was 58770 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%; the housing completion area was 60348 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. Some sub - industries such as pipeline transportation, multimodal transport, and water transportation showed investment growth [56]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call and put options simultaneously [59].

Core Viewpoint - The national statistical work conference emphasizes the need to enhance statistical supervision and law enforcement, aiming to improve the quality of statistical data for the successful start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 [1] Group 1: Statistical Supervision and Law Enforcement - The conference calls for increased efforts in statistical supervision and law enforcement, including a special review of statistical fraud [1] - It aims to enhance the effectiveness of statistical inspections and establish a robust mechanism for verifying statistical data [1] - The foundation of statistical law is to be strengthened, and a collaborative mechanism to prevent and control statistical fraud is to be improved [1] Group 2: Statistical Reform and Innovation - The meeting highlights the need to advance statistical reform and innovation, focusing on creating a statistical system conducive to building a unified large market [1] - It emphasizes the importance of compiling a macro asset-liability statement and improving the monitoring system for the service industry [1] - The conference also addresses the need to refine carbon emission statistical accounting [1] Group 3: Strengthening Statistical Monitoring - The conference outlines the necessity to enhance statistical monitoring related to building a strong domestic market and promoting high-quality development [1] - It aims to facilitate urban-rural integration and regional collaboration while continuously improving the well-being of the population [1]