US equities advanced on Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested the central bank may have room to cut interest rates again in December. The comments helped the stocks set onto a path to break a two-day slide driven by weakness in artificial intelligence stocks and renewed rate-policy uncertainty. ...

Is there real progress in this economy right now. I know we can look at these numbers and find some modicum of stability, but is a real progress, real growth. Well, this is also a very important question remain, because if we think about what was the reason why we had a slowdown over the summer, it was likely because of the turmoil that came after Liberation Day.But Immigration Day is now eight, nine months ago, and things are gradually getting better on the trade for at least us. More clarity. And we've, o ...

相较于9月会议的预测，10月的预测显示截至2028年的实际GDP增长总体小幅增强，这主要反映了预期 潜在产出增长的提升以及金融条件预计将提供更大支撑。2025年后，随着关税上升带来的拖累减弱， GDP增长预计将保持高于潜在水平的态势直至2028年，金融条件将转变为支出的顺风因素。因此，失业 率预计在今年之后逐步下降，随后稳定在略低于工作人员对自然失业率估计值的水平。通胀预测与为9 月会议准备的预测基本相似，预计关税上调将在2025年和2026年对通胀构成上行压力。此后，通胀预计 将回归此前的反通胀趋势。工作人员继续认为预测面临的高度不确定性，理由包括劳动力市场降温、通 胀仍处高位、政府政策变化及其对经济影响的不确定性加剧，以及政府停摆导致的数据获取受限。 美联储最新政策会议纪要显示，尽管多位官员对劳动力市场疲软表示担忧，但认为在年内剩余时间维持 利率稳定可能是适宜之举。 咨询公司RSM首席经济学家JosephBrusuelas解读称，这份纪要"清晰揭示了鹰鸽两派的分歧，文本暗示 鹰派略占上风，他们围绕通胀固化风险提出了具有说服力的论据"。自10月会议以来，经济背景已发生 变化：美国政府停摆结束，就业与通胀等关 ...

盘前市场动向 1. 11月19日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%，标普500指数期货涨0.45%，纳指期货涨 0.53%。 | = US 30 | 46,205.80 | 46,216.30 | 45,992.00 | +114.10 | +0.25% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,646.90 | 6,648.60 | 6,594.60 | +29.50 | +0.45% | | = US Tech 100 | 24,633.90 | 24,641.30 | 24,366.90 | +130.80 | +0.53% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.40%，英国富时100指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数涨0.05%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.18%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,264.66 | 23,264.66 | 23,105.52 | +91.61 | +0.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 | ...

比特币价格周二亚洲时段跌破了9万美元大关，延续了近一个月来的下跌态势。过去六周内，加密货币市场已累计蒸发了逾万亿美元市值。科技股估值过 高及美国利率路径的不确定性正持续引发投机资产抛售潮。 行情数据显示，比特币价格日内早间一度下跌近2.5%至89385美元，失守9万美元大关。比特币上一次跌破这一关口还要追溯到4月份，当时美国总统特朗 普备受争议的"解放日"关税计划扰乱了全球金融市场，导致比特币价格当时一度跌至7.44万美元的低点。 据Coinglass数据显示，在过去24小时内，全网加密货币市场共有逾18万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为达到了逾10亿美元（约合人民币71亿元）。 当时加密货币市场的暴跌规模与速度令许多人迄今都印象深刻：加密货币领域杠杆头寸在一天内遭强制平仓规模超过了190亿美元那些用杠杆提升回报的 投资者——在价格下跌时尤其脆弱。如今，不少业内人士已郑重地将当时的抛售事件称为"10/10"惨案。 同时，据数据提供商CoinGecko追踪的18000余种加密货币总市值数据显示，自10月6日加密货币市场市值触及峰值以来已蒸发了约25%——累计市值缩水 约1.2万亿美元。 分析人士指出，在全球经济逆风加剧的 ...

来源：江南都市报 11月18日，比特币价格七个月来首次跌破9万美元关口。 持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 此次逆转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期权交易员押注比特币将进一步下跌，近期对 8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...

11月18日，比特币跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。此次逆 转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期 权交易员押注比特币将进一步下跌，近期对8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...

下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 比特币跌破9万美元， 持续一个月的下跌态势 已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 此次逆转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期权交易员押注比特币将进一步 下跌，近期对8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...

周二（11月18日）亚市早盘中美元指数报99.531，日内涨幅扩大至0.36%，近三日在99.20-99.60区间震 荡偏强运行，已逼近区间上沿。美联储政策分歧主导短期走势，技术面多头结构初现，需重点关注鲍威 尔讲话对99.60阻力位的突破指引，站稳则上看99.80，若回落失守99.40短期支撑或下探99.20关键位。 经济数据方面，美国核心PCE物价指数超预期表现强化了政策谨慎的必要性，也为美元提供了实质支 撑，推动美元指数站稳关键位置。当前市场焦点高度集中于美联储主席鲍威尔的最新讲话，其对利率政 策的表态将成为短期美元指数方向的核心催化剂，指引市场重新锚定政策路径预期。 美元指数技术分析 美元指数自11月3日触及98.865阶段性低点后震荡回升，日线图已站稳20日均线支撑，形成"W底"形态 雏形。截至11月18日，近四个交易日在99.20-99.60区间窄幅整理，17日盘中最高99.477、最低99.245， 蓄势突破特征明显，短期多头结构占优但尚未形成明确趋势。支撑位呈阶梯式分布，首要支撑为99.20 （近期震荡中枢下沿），失守后下看99.10短期多空分水岭，关键强支撑在98.90；阻力端重点关注99. ...

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the political cycle in 2026 will dominate market trends, with expectations of a strong rebound in Q1, followed by challenges after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office in May [1] - The consensus among multi-strategy hedge fund managers is that global growth expectations will be raised, with the U.S. nominal GDP growth potentially reaching 5% or higher due to fiscal stimulus boosting demand [1] - Demand-driven growth is expected to force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policy, leading to a potential sell-off pressure of 40-50 basis points on short-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The demand for AI is experiencing an immediate surge, while supply-side improvements from AI investments are projected to take years, typically around 10 years [2] - The overall supply capacity of the economy has actually declined in the short term due to labor market and immigration policy constraints [2] - Inflation expectations are no longer stable, and if inflation rises again early next year, it may exhibit self-reinforcing and expectation-driven characteristics [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 6% by early 2025 are prevalent, but a drop back to 4% has provided significant support for the market this year [3] - Investors are advised to focus on profit opportunities in 2026 rather than worrying about a potential disaster in 2027, as this year has already shown strong performance [3] Group 4 - The market consensus indicates a clear trading path: a prosperous Q1 followed by a test when the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office on May 15 [4] - The midterm elections on November 3 are seen as a critical juncture, with Trump likely to employ all possible means to secure a win, shaping investor positioning [4] - There is a notable shift in risk assessment, with risk assets expected to perform well for a period, but adjustments in interest rate expectations may occur as consumer conditions improve [4]