Group 1: Price Information - Platinum futures main contract closing price was 493.1 yuan/g, down 0.88% from the previous value; spot platinum (99.95%) was 485 yuan/g, up 0.21%; platinum basis (spot - futures) was -8.1 yuan/g, down 40.00% [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price was 361.4 yuan/g, up 1.15%; spot palladium (99.95%) was 356.5 yuan/g, up 0.71%; palladium basis (spot - futures) was -4.9 yuan/g, up 48.48% [4] - London spot platinum was $1919/ounce, down 0.10%; London spot palladium was $1439.07/ounce, up 1.37% [4] - NYMEX platinum was $1918.4, up 0.11%; NYMEX palladium was $1438, up 1.45% [4] - Dollar/CNY central parity rate was 6.9194, down 0.04% [4] - The difference between domestic platinum and London platinum was 10.69 yuan/g, down 25.78%; the difference between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum was 10.84 yuan/g, down 30.46% [4] - The difference between domestic palladium and London palladium was -0.36 yuan/g, down 222.89%; the difference between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium was -0.09 yuan/g, down 111.08% [5] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.3644, down 0.0280; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.3335, down 0.0197 [5] Group 2: Inventory and Position Information - NYMEX platinum inventory was 541,249 ounces, down 2.34%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 247,765 ounces, down 0.24% [5] - NYMEX total position of platinum was 61,473, down 8.65%; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 16,898, down 4.14% [5] - NYMEX total position of palladium was 15,556, down 3.13%; non - commercial net long position of palladium was -185, up 571.35% [5] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - On March 31, platinum and palladium prices showed a volatile trend. PT2606 rose 0.16% to 493.10 yuan/g, PD2606 rose 0.89% to 361.40 yuan/g [6] - Fed officials' dovish signals and geopolitical factors affected platinum and palladium prices. It is expected that platinum and palladium will likely maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East becomes relatively clear, consider going long on platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum oxide's fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,875.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract was 2,827.00 yuan/ton, down 114.00 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of SHFE aluminum was - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of aluminum oxide was - 11.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2] - The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 258,839.00 lots, down 5089.00 lots; the open interest of the aluminum oxide main contract was 199,275.00 lots, down 3436.00 lots [2] - The LME aluminum canceled warrants were 148,050.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons; the total inventory of aluminum oxide was 475,344.00 tons, up 14029.00 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,445.00 US dollars/ton, up 160.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 420,875.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum was - 53,216.00 lots, down 13662.00 lots; the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.22, down 0.31 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 33,582.00 tons, down 1625.00 tons [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was 120.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 6,958.00 lots [2] - The SHFE inventory of SHFE aluminum was 454,571.00 tons, up 2527.00 tons; the SHFE inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 45,761.00 tons, down 7929.00 tons [2] - The SHFE warrants of SHFE aluminum were 408,197.00 tons, up 4639.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM A00 aluminum was 24,610.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; the spot price of aluminum oxide from SMM was 2,770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,525.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,005.00 yuan/ton, down 65.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 265.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [2] - The premium/discount of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 47.21 US dollars/ton, down 14.02 US dollars [2] - The basis of aluminum oxide was - 57.00 yuan/ton, up 114.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,794.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of aluminum oxide nationwide was 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum oxide was 801.10 tons, down 12.70 tons; the monthly capacity utilization rate of aluminum oxide was 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point [2] - The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum oxide was 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0.00 yuan/ton, down 19150.00 yuan; China's monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, down 56401.89 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's monthly export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide was 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the monthly import volume of aluminum oxide was 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum was 37.40 tons, up 22.90 tons; the weekly social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 139.70 tons, up 2.60 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,617.04 tons, up 12525.43 tons; the monthly total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,512.85 tons, up 3.00 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of primary aluminum was 10,040.43 tons, down 3270.78 tons; the monthly operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.94%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.60 tons, up 20.50 tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 tons, down 11.50 tons [2] - The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the monthly National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 tons, unchanged; the monthly automobile production was 341.20 vehicles, down 10.70 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound travelers, introduce measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket [2] - From January to February 2026, the import of automobiles was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, and promote the reform of automotive circulation and consumption [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged, but may take action if inflation expectations change [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position, and the Fed should not take action for the time being [2] - Fed Governor Milan called for interest rate cuts and believed that the Fed could cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [2]

Group 1 - Oil prices continue to rise, while gold and silver prices decline. Brent crude oil increased by 0.3% to $112.6 per barrel, COMEX gold fell by 1.8% to $4,492.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped by 2.8% to $67.6 per ounce [1][47][54] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.1%, with most sectors experiencing declines. Communication services, information technology, and financials fell by 7.2%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively, while energy, materials, and utilities rose by 6.2%, 4.2%, and 2.9% [2][9] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the South Korean Composite Index down by 5.9% and the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index down by 2.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $837.4 billion as of March 25, 2026, with net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds falling to $5.16 billion [65][71] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $516 billion, lower than the $553.6 billion recorded in the same period last year. Total expenditures were $1,923.5 billion, compared to $1,835.6 billion last year [71][72] - The market anticipates a 72.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in 2026, a significant increase from the previous week's 64% [101][106] Group 3 - Japan's February CPI year-on-year growth was 1.3%, down from 1.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%. Excluding policy factors, the core CPI was 1.7%, indicating stable core inflation trends [110] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 were 210,000, aligning with market expectations, while continuing claims were 1.819 million, lower than the anticipated 1.848 million [116][118]

Group 1: Metals and Precious Metals - Silver: Powell's speech dispels market expectations of an interest rate hike, and maintaining or cutting rates is the main logic. There is uncertainty within the Fed. Global stock markets are down, risk appetite is weak, and silver's upward momentum is weaker than gold's, passively following gold's fluctuations, with a mid - term range - bound trend [1] - Gold: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz may ease in terms of passage but fees may rise, and inflation expectations may temporarily ease. Fed officials signal no immediate rate hikes, weakening short - term upward momentum, but risk aversion is rising. Gold still has rebound demand and a mid - term wide - range oscillation pattern [6] - Aluminum: Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked, causing aluminum prices to surge. If production cuts in the Middle East materialize, the global aluminum supply gap will widen. The domestic market has not entered the de - stocking cycle, but downstream demand is picking up. Short - term prices may remain strong, but there is a risk of technical correction [8] - Alumina: The domestic alumina supply is in excess, but cost support exists due to Guinea's export restrictions and rising shipping costs. Demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [9] - Zinc: Sulfuric acid price increases support zinc prices from the cost side. Domestic refinery profits are improving, but supply may tighten in the second quarter. Demand from the galvanizing industry is rising, and social inventory is decreasing. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10] Group 2: Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, port inventory is decreasing, and imports are down. The market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [2] - Crude Oil: Iran's parliament has passed a bill to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The low traffic in the Strait and its expected situation are the key factors for oil prices. Short - term operation should be cautious, and the mid - term upward driving force will be stronger as the war continues [12] - PTA: PTA production and capacity utilization are increasing, but downstream polyester sales are poor due to high raw material prices. There is an expected inventory build - up in March. Cost is affected by PX supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Short - term caution is needed, and mid - term strategy is to go long at low levels [13] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Pork: The national pig price is stable, with slight adjustments in some areas. Demand growth is limited, and the price is bottom - oscillating. The spot market has a stronger price - support sentiment, and the futures market has a bottom - fishing sentiment but has not reversed. Focus on the slaughter volume and the reduction of sows [7] - Palm Oil: Indonesia may advance the B50 biodiesel plan, and international crude oil prices are high. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [7] - Soybean Meal: Some oil mills' soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and downstream procurement is cautious. Other mills' operation is stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. Brazilian quarantine process relaxation may suppress short - term prices, which are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Raw material prices are high, providing strong cost support. Thai and Vietnamese rubber plantations are expected to start tapping in early April. Chinese social inventory is starting to decrease. Demand from domestic tire enterprises is stable after the Spring Festival, but the market has a weaker expectation for future orders. Long - term prices show a bottom - rising trend, and short - term prices are in a wide - range oscillation [15] Group 4: Others - Two - year Treasury Bonds: Most short - term Shibor varieties are down, indicating a looser capital market, which is favorable for the short - term bond market. The two - year and five - year bond markets are rebounding, and there is a short - term rebound demand. Attention should be paid to whether the mid - term oscillation pattern can be broken [4] - Rebar: Affected by the Middle East conflict, the steel market faces "cost support + export obstacles". Domestic steel consumption is slowly recovering, and high inventory restricts price increases. Short - term price increases may be limited [4] - Coke: Short - term supply and demand of coke are both increasing, and the iron - making production recovery is faster. The cost of coke is rising, and the expectation of price increase is strong. The coke futures price will follow the coking coal price. If the geopolitical conflict eases, there will be a callback pressure [5] - Silicone Iron: The silicone iron industry has a serious over - capacity problem. The recovery of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production, and the supply - demand relationship will become looser. There is a callback risk in the medium - long term [5] - Soda Ash: The float glass industry is stable, with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market fluctuates slightly, with individual price cuts. Downstream demand is general, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate slightly weakly [10] - PVC: PVC supply is increasing, inventory is stable, downstream operation rate is rising but still lower than last year. Downstream resistance is strong after price increases, and export demand is poor. Cost is supported by high - priced crude oil. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate slightly weakly [11]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 30, the contracts of the four major index futures in the current month showed mixed trends. IF fell by 0.21%, IH by 0.16%, IC rose by 0.19%, and IM by 0.22% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 4,728 lots, IH by 1,629 lots, IC by 3,084 lots, and IM by 10,930 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 5,068 lots, IH by 427 lots, IC by 6,186 lots, while IM increased by 3,733 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - The A - share market bottomed out and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.24% at 3,923.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.05%. The market turnover was 1.93 trillion yuan, compared with 1.86 trillion yuan the previous day [7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.81% at 24,750.79 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped 1.84%, hitting a new low since early April last year; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.65%. Four new stocks were listed on the same day, with PolarView up 150%, Deshizhang 111%, and Han Tian Tian Cheng up 35%. Southbound funds sold a net of nearly HK$2.5 billion [8] - The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 45,216.14 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39% to 6,343.72 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73% to 20,794.64 points [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2604 was 4,472.4, down 0.21%, with a basis of - 19.55, a turnover of 36.26 billion yuan, a trading volume of 27,179 lots (up 1,689 lots), and an open interest of 49,894 lots (down 442 lots). Similar data are provided for IF2605, IF2606, and IF2609 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2604 was 2,829, down 0.16%, with a basis of - 4.21, a turnover of 1.059 billion yuan, a trading volume of 12,534 lots (up 940 lots), and an open interest of 20,218 lots (down 240 lots). Similar data are provided for IH2605, IH2606, and IH2609 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2604 was 7,706.8, up 0.19%, with a basis of - 46.92, a turnover of 5.728 billion yuan, a trading volume of 37,502 lots (down 1,329 lots), and an open interest of 56,827 lots (down 3,413 lots). Similar data are provided for IC2605, IC2606, and IC2609 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2604 was 7,695.8, up 0.22%, with a basis of - 72.13, a turnover of 8.387 billion yuan, a trading volume of 55,003 lots (up 2,157 lots), and an open interest of 80,186 lots (down 11 lots). Similar data are provided for IM2605, IM2606, and IM2609 [1] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2604 and IF2605, the long - order increase was 341 (not announced for some), and the short - order increase was 698 (not announced for some). For IF2606, the long - order decrease was 2,480, and the short - order decrease was 2,997. For IF2609, the long - order decrease was 733, and the short - order decrease was 895 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2604, the long - order decrease was 36, and the short - order decrease was 226. For IH2606, the long - order increase was 72, and the short - order increase was 276. For IH2609, the long - order increase was 537, and the short - order increase was 393 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2604, the long - order decrease was 2,647, and the short - order decrease was 2,430. For IC2606, the long - order decrease was 2,165, and the short - order decrease was 1,504. For IC2609, the long - order decrease was 1,000, and the short - order decrease was 909 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2604, the long - order increase was 1,257, and the short - order increase was 233. For IM2605, the long - order net change was 1,614, and the short - order net change was 74. For IM2606, the long - order increase was 357, and the short - order decrease was 159 [5] 3. Important Drivers - U.S. President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The U.S. is in serious consultations with Iran to end the military operation in Iran. Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. The White House Press Secretary said Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6 and intends to call on Arab countries to bear the cost of the U.S. military operation against Iran [6] - Iran stated that if its power facilities are attacked, it will cause a power outage in the entire region. The Iranian President said that ending the war will be based on safeguarding national dignity, interests, and security. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran has not had any direct negotiations with the U.S. so far, and the so - called "15 - point cease - fire plan" of the U.S. is "excessive and unreasonable" [6] - The Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including implementing a financial arrangement and charging system in Iranian rials, banning U.S. and Israeli ships from passing through, and cooperating with Oman to formulate relevant legal frameworks [7] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that in the context of the energy shock caused by the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran, the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact. But he also warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by [7]

Economic Indicators - The comprehensive prosperity index in China fell to 100.28, indicating a moderate recovery in the economy but a slowdown in growth[1] - The consumption prosperity index recorded 99.96, slightly below the threshold, showing a slowdown in post-holiday consumption recovery[1] - The investment prosperity index decreased to 100.10, reflecting a stabilization in project advancement after a phase of acceleration[1] - The production prosperity index stood at 100.69, significantly above the threshold, indicating sustained high levels of production activity[1] Industrial Profit Growth - From January to February 2026, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, benefiting from both volume and price increases[2] - High-end manufacturing became a core driver, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 23.5% and high-tech manufacturing profits soaring by 58.7%[2] - Over 60% of industries saw profit improvements, with notable rebounds in private enterprises, despite existing external uncertainties and internal structural disparities[2]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 894 points or 3.5%, closing at 24,382 points, marking an eight-month low[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 143 points or 3.6%, closing at 3,813 points[2] - The S&P 500 increased by 74 points or 1.2%, closing at 6,581 points[2] Currency and Economic Indicators - The RMB/USD central parity rate was reported at 6.9041, down by 143 pips, the lowest since March 16[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 8 billion RMB at a rate of 1.4%[2] Oil Prices - NYMEX May crude oil prices fell by 10% to $88.1 per barrel[4] - Brent crude oil prices dropped by 11% to $99.9 per barrel[4] Corporate Earnings - Country Garden (02007.HK) expects a profit of 1 billion to 2.2 billion RMB for 2025, recovering from a loss of 35.145 billion RMB last year[4] - Hong Kong Travel (00308.HK) anticipates a loss exceeding 250 million RMB for 2025, compared to a profit of 106 million RMB in 2024[4] - Evergrande Real Estate (00012.HK) reported a revenue of 25.741 billion HKD, up 1.9%, but a net profit decline of 10.2%[5]

Core Viewpoint - Gladstone Capital's income is significantly affected by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), leading to a decline in portfolio yield and revenue due to recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - The weighted average portfolio yield decreased from 13.9% in Q4 2024 to 12.2% by Q1 2026, a decline of 170 basis points, resulting in a 22.5% year-over-year revenue drop [1][2]. - Net investment income (NII) per share was reported at $0.50, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.48, indicating a backlog of pending investments that supports distribution sustainability [3]. - The company's stock price has fallen nearly 36% over the past 12 months, reflecting the impact of yield compression on net investment income [5][7]. Business Model and Strategy - Gladstone Capital operates as a business development company (BDC), focusing on lower middle market businesses and requiring a distribution of at least 90% of taxable income to maintain tax advantages [4]. - The weighted average principal balance of the portfolio increased from $647.2 million to $772.3 million, which helps stabilize per-share earnings despite yield compression [7][13]. Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve has maintained the funds rate at 3.75% since December 2025, halting further yield compression but not reversing the previous declines [8][11]. - Small businesses, the primary borrowers for Gladstone Capital, are under pressure, as indicated by the Russell 2000 index's decline of 8.46% over the past month [10]. Investment Outlook - The key metric for income investors is whether NII per share continues to cover the $0.15 monthly distribution, which it currently does [12][16]. - Management's ability to grow the loan book is crucial for offsetting yield compression, with recent investments reflecting a focus on lower middle market sectors [14][15]. - Any deterioration in portfolio credit quality, as indicated by the fair value metric dropping from 103.3% to 97.5%, could signal risks to the current distribution level [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of zinc provide support, and the price is stabilizing [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,705 yuan/ton, down 2.66%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,132.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.11% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 128,770 lots, an increase of 24,650 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 16,533 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 104,612 lots, an increase of 38,701 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 208,797 lots, an increase of 607 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 0 zinc was -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -41.47 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 102,604 tons, an increase of 1,341 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 117,850 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1] 2. News - The European Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the sixth consecutive time. Due to the Middle East conflict, its policy stance has become tougher. Traders have reduced their bets on ECB rate hikes, expecting a 61 - basis - point increase by the end of the year [2] - The bond market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has changed from rate cuts to rate hikes. The unexpected hawkish stance of the Bank of England and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims have led to the elimination of the Fed's rate - cut expectations [2][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm. The energy market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, and geopolitical conflicts and concerns about economic downturn are dragging down asset prices [1][3]. - The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened due to the closure of the east - west arbitrage window. The demand from domestic refineries and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high. The supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical conflicts and some refineries' focus on refined oil supply. The demand is expected to increase in April [3][4]. - The short - term polyester price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation. The cost is rising and the supply is shrinking, while the downstream demand is weak [4]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge. The price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and oil prices, and natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [6]. - The methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scope of Iran's retaliation, changes in geopolitical conflicts, and the actual resumption progress of downstream MTO devices [6]. - The polyolefin market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins and potentially hindering demand growth [8]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening rapidly. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand will gradually recover [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI April contract closed down 0.18 dollars to 96.14 dollars per barrel, a 0.19% decline; Brent May contract closed up 1.27 dollars to 108.65 dollars per barrel, a 1.18% increase; SC2605 closed at 757.1 yuan per barrel, down 46.3 yuan per barrel, a 5.76% decline. Geopolitical events such as Iran's warning and attacks on oil facilities in the Middle East have affected the market. The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.91% to 5011 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 10.45% to 6170 yuan per ton. As of March 16, the land - based fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased. The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads are expected to remain high [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.32% to 4635 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain high [3][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6834 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; EG2605 closed at 5220 yuan per ton, up 7.65%. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 310 yuan per ton to 16090 yuan per ton; the NR contract fell 180 yuan per ton to 12925 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber contract BR rose 280 yuan per ton to 15540 yuan per ton. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to multiple variables such as Iran's retaliation and downstream device resumption [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device maintenance plans increase, and the downstream factory operating load rises. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China are adjusted upwards. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 19 and 18, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantile information [9]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have become "legitimate targets for attack". The Habshan gas facility in the UAE has been temporarily shut down, and the Ahmadi Port refinery in Kuwait has been attacked [11]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) detailed the specific composition of the approximately 400 million - barrel strategic oil reserve release plan. The release will mainly consist of crude oil, and in Europe, it will mainly be in the form of refined oil. The specific allocation ratio between crude oil and refined oil may change [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibers, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17][20][24]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][30][33][34][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][48][50][52]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads and ratios between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [55][58][59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts showing the production profits of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [63][64][66]. 3.5 Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and formulating risk management and investment strategies [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of the Energy and Chemical Research Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [70]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis and has strong logical thinking [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory - industry operation combination [72].