交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-25） | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ | 会议不及预期，鲍威尔释放降息信号， | 大宗商品受到支撑。国内高炉限产预期被阶段性证伪，铁矿需求影响不大， | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金层面博弈加剧。产业层面，铁矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比 | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉 | | | | | | | | | 铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。 | 8 | 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期，但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本 | | | | | | | | | | 面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | 煤焦：受福建大田煤矿事故影响，以及反内卷初见成效，煤焦夜盘大幅拉 | | | | | | | | | | | 涨。产地煤矿整体恢复 ...

到2025年，通胀率回落至2.3%，然而美联储却坚持将利率维持在4.25?.5%的高位，坚决不降息。特朗普的施压与威胁让美联储的独立性经受空前的考验。 而在2020年疫情危机期间，鲍威尔的果敢应对则成为他任内的耀眼功勋。2020年3月，新冠疫情席卷全球，美股在短短10天内经历4次熔断，失业率飙升至 14.7%，金融市场陷入流动性枯竭的恐慌之中。在这关键时刻，鲍威尔展现出与其平日谨慎风格截然不同的果断行动。 美联储在两周内将利率从1.5?.75%急速下调至零。 随着特朗普的公开施压以及对解雇的威胁，美联储的独立性正面临史无前例的考验。这位保守派领导者已经深陷舆论与政策的漩涡之中……看鲍威尔究竟 做错了什么，做对了什么？ 自2018年接手美联储以来，杰罗姆·鲍威尔经历了美国经济动荡近半个世纪的种种考验：从特朗普的减税政策所带来的繁荣，到新冠疫情引发的金融危 机，再者是四十年来罕见的通胀风暴，以及在2025年特朗普重回白宫后产生的政治斗争。鲍威尔的决策时而能够力挽狂澜，时而则显得迟缓无力，既成功 将市场从崩溃的边缘拉回，也因对形势的误判饱受指责。 ...

Friday, August 22, 2025A half hour after the opening bell for the final trading day of the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning, in one of his most anticipated Jackson Hole speeches in years. Investors will be listening closely to hear if the deliberate and methodical Powell will be leaning toward a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut.The Fed has kept rates steady year-to-date at 4.25-4.50%. In historical terms, we’re neither high nor low — ...

文 | 卜淑情 来源 | 华尔街见闻 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于今晚在杰克逊霍尔发表备受期待的讲话，市场将终于获知美联储对利率政策的最新思 路。 投资者目前几乎已确定9月降息，并密切关注鲍威尔对年底前政策路径的表态。隔夜市场对大型零售商财报和美联储7 月会议纪要反应平淡，反映出降息预期已成为当前市场焦点。 面对劳动力市场疲软但GDP表现良好、消费者通胀相对可控但生产者通胀上升的复杂经济环境，鲍威尔的讲话全球瞩 目。 市场预期年底前可能有两次降息(可能性47%)，任何偏离预期的表态都可能引发市场波动。 鹰派程度超预期 若鲍威尔暗示的降息路径比市场预期更为保守，美股可能面临回调压力。分析认为，目前市场接近历史高点，估值已 基本反映完美前景，这使其对降息预期的任何重新校准都极为敏感。 投资者看重低资金成本对企业未来盈利增长的提振作用，这历来是美股上涨的主要驱动力。如果企业获得资本的难度 高于预期，投资者可能减少持仓，引发市场回落。 情景二：鸽派程度超预期 在这一最佳情境中，鲍威尔暗示的降息路径将比市场预期更为宽松，这将为主要公司的未来盈利增长提供更多动力， 是明显利好美股的 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚10点在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话。当前，美联储正 面临美国纵容特朗普前所未有的政治压力，但喜忧参半的经济数据可能迫使鲍威尔采取折中立场，导致 关键问题悬而未决。 在特朗普的施压下，投资者也对美联储下月降息充满期待。此前两位美联储理事已在最近一次政策会议 上推动降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软速度可能快于整体就业数据显示的情况。 然而，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且随着特朗普进口关税成本传导至零售价格，通胀预期可能进 一步上升。部分政策制定者认为，这种价格调整过程可能持续到明年，因此在此时降息需谨慎。 不过，波森认为降息可能是为就业市场提供"保险"，"部分原因是为了在政治上争取时间，因为如果不 降息，局势将更加紧张。但他们不会明说。" 特朗普的政治施压 随着特朗普的言行日益被视为对美联储独立性的威胁，鲍威尔和美联储所处的政治环境已成为降息叙事 中的重要组成部分——几乎任何决策都被解读为向特朗普妥协或无理对抗，而非基于事实的风险平衡。 特朗普对鲍威尔发起了猛烈的人身攻击，并要求其辞职。其政府内部有人以美联储大楼翻修成本超支为 由，鼓动"解雇"鲍威尔。但根据法律，美联储主席和 ...

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于今晚在杰克逊霍尔发表备受期待的讲话，市场将终于获知美联储对利率 政策的最新思路。 投资者目前几乎已确定9月降息，并密切关注鲍威尔对年底前政策路径的表态。隔夜市场对大型零售商 财报和美联储7月会议纪要反应平淡，反映出降息预期已成为当前市场焦点。 面对劳动力市场疲软但GDP表现良好、消费者通胀相对可控但生产者通胀上升的复杂经济环境，鲍威尔 的讲话全球瞩目。市场预期年底前可能有两次降息(可能性47%)，任何偏离预期的表态都可能引发市场 波动。 值得注意的是，尽管更多降息整体上是积极的，但可能导致股市内部轮动。随着资本获取更容易，盈利 修正预期增强，目前领涨市场的大型科技股可能失去青睐。本周早些时候，科技股为主的纳斯达克100 指数已经出现了相对更大的跌幅。 情景一：鹰派程度超预期 若鲍威尔暗示的降息路径比市场预期更为保守，美股可能面临回调压力。分析认为，目前市场接近历史 高点，估值已基本反映完美前景，这使其对降息预期的任何重新校准都极为敏感。 投资者看重低资金成本对企业未来盈利增长的提振作用，这历来是美股上涨的主要驱动力。如果企业获 得资本的难度高于预期，投资者可能减少持仓，引发市场回落 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and its potential impact on the US dollar index and interest rates [1][2] - The US dollar index is currently trading around 98.60, with expectations of further upward movement if Powell does not counter the market's rising interest rate cut expectations [1] - The US Treasury market is active, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting for signals regarding the Fed's next rate actions, with a 77% probability of a rate cut in September indicated by futures markets [1] - The dollar's ability to maintain its upward trend largely depends on Powell's tone; a dovish stance could push the dollar index above 99.320, while a rebuttal to rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback towards the 98.317 support level [2] - The dollar index has broken through the 98.317 resistance level and is now above the 50-day simple moving average, with the next resistance levels identified at 98.950 and the major target range of 99.177-99.320 [2]

新华财经北京8月21日电（王姝睿）受英国8月超预期的PMI数据提振，投资者认为英国央行在2025年再 次降息的可能性降低。 数据显示，英国8月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值升至53.0，创2024年8月以来最高水平，远超预期 值51.6。此次增长主要由服务业强劲反弹推动，服务业PMI从7月的51.8升至53.6。英国企业对未来一年 的商业活动预期达到2024年10月以来最乐观水平。 凯投宏观认为，英国商业活动表现强劲的迹象增加了英国央行更长时间维持利率不变的可能性。根据周 四公布的商业调查，本月经济活动加快，显示英国私营部门的活力强于此前预期。 S&P Global首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示，数据表明英国经济在夏季加速增长，订单数据仍 显示需求环境"不平衡且脆弱"。企业报告称，他们对近期政府政策变化的影响表示担忧，同时也对更广 泛的地缘政治不确定性感到不安。由于4月雇主工资税和最低工资上调，企业劳动力成本增加，各行业 均在裁员，但裁员速度较7月有所放缓。 尽管整体数据向好，但英国8月制造业PMI跌至47.3，为三个月以来新低，并连续第五个月低于50荣枯 线，反映出全球贸易环境对其造成的影响。 英国 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed on August 20, with the Dow Jones up 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.67% [2] - The S&P 500 index has declined for four consecutive trading days, driven by concerns over the high valuations of large tech stocks, leading investors to sell tech shares and seek returns in other sectors [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced a broad decline, with the index of the seven largest U.S. tech companies falling by 1.07%. Notable individual stock movements included Apple down nearly 2%, and Amazon, Tesla, and Google each down over 1% [4] - Semiconductor stocks also faced downward pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 0.72%. Intel saw a significant decline of 6.99%, while Micron Technology fell nearly 4% [4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes from July 29-30 revealed a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%. However, two members voted against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening in the labor market [9] - The minutes indicated that while there were fluctuations in net exports, recent indicators suggested a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with inflation remaining slightly elevated and economic uncertainty persisting [9] Commodity Market - On August 20, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1% to $3392.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising by 1.51% [6] - Oil prices also saw an increase, with U.S. crude oil main contract rising by 1.73% to $62.84 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract up by 1.76% to $66.95 per barrel, driven by a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the heightened security measures in Washington D.C., including the deployment of National Guard troops and federal law enforcement, amidst a backdrop of political tension and a recent mass arrest [1][3][12] - The initial deployment of 800 National Guard members was not met with significant concern, but as armed personnel began to gather, residents realized the situation was more complex than initially perceived [3][5] - Reports indicate that violent crime rates in Washington have been declining over the past two years, contradicting the narrative of a "dangerous city" as portrayed by the Trump administration [5][10] Group 2 - The Trump administration appears to be attempting to expand presidential power by seeking greater control over the D.C. police department, including efforts to appoint a federal official as the emergency police chief [5][12] - Tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have escalated, with Trump criticizing the Fed's renovation costs, which reportedly increased from $1.9 billion to as high as $3.1 billion, as a means to undermine the Fed's independence [6][7] - Trump is reportedly looking for Powell's successor, narrowing down candidates who support his economic policies, indicating a strategic move to reshape the Federal Reserve [7][12] Group 3 - The timing of Trump's actions, particularly the military presence in D.C. and the conflict with Powell, coincides with his meeting with Russian President Putin, suggesting a potential diversion of public attention from the meeting [8][10] - Supporters of Trump view these measures as necessary for public safety, while critics question whether the actions are genuinely about security or a test of presidential power [10][12]