Group 1 - The report from Pacific Securities indicates that bauxite supply is abundant, China's electrolytic aluminum production is controlled, and downstream demand is steadily increasing, leading to a potential high price for electrolytic aluminum [1] - Bauxite is the most abundant metal element on Earth, with Guinea holding the largest reserves of approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 25.52% of the global total. In 2024, global bauxite production is expected to reach 450 million tons, with Guinea contributing about 130 million tons, or 28.89% [1] - China's bauxite resource reserves account for only 2.34% of the global total, but due to strong downstream demand, its bauxite production is 93 million tons, representing 20.67% of the global output [1] Group 2 - In 2024, global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to be 72 million tons, with China maintaining its position as the largest producer at 43 million tons, which is 60% of the total [2] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by electricity, alumina, and prebaked anodes, and is manageable. The demand for aluminum is being bolstered by the growth in the renewable energy sector, compensating for the decline in the real estate sector [2] Group 3 - Over the past decade, China's electrolytic aluminum industry has undergone a significant shift, with production moving from east to west and north to south. Yunnan province, with its abundant hydropower resources, has become a key production base with a capacity of 5.85 million tons by the end of 2024 [3] - Yunnan province is well-connected to regions such as Sichuan, Chongqing, and South China, and has links to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Indian Ocean region, where industrialization is accelerating and demand for aluminum is strong [3] - The introduction of carbon taxes by the EU enhances the competitiveness of green aluminum, positioning it favorably in the market [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the aluminum industry, highlighting the potential for high prices due to stable demand and controlled supply [4][8]. Core Insights - Aluminum is the most abundant metal on Earth, with Guinea holding the largest bauxite reserves at approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 25.52% of global reserves [4][21]. - The global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China maintaining a dominant position at 43 million tons, representing 60% of the total [4][67]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the green aluminum industry, particularly in regions like Yunnan, which benefits from abundant hydropower resources [5][70]. Summary by Sections Global Bauxite Resource Status - Bauxite is primarily found in Guinea, Australia, and other countries, with China having a relatively low reserve of 2.34% [21]. - In 2024, global bauxite production is expected to be 45 million tons, with Guinea contributing 13 million tons, or 28.89% [27]. Global Bauxite Production - The top three producers of bauxite in 2024 are Guinea (13 million tons), Australia (10 million tons), and China (9.3 million tons) [27][28]. - China imports significant amounts of bauxite from Guinea and Australia, with imports of 110.58 million tons and 39.89 million tons, respectively [27]. Global Alumina Production - The global alumina production is projected to be 142 million tons in 2024, with China producing 84 million tons, accounting for 60% of the total [37]. - China's alumina capacity is expanding rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.86% [37]. Global Electrolytic Aluminum Production - The report indicates that the global electrolytic aluminum production will reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China leading at 43 million tons [67]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to the increasing use in renewable energy sectors [89]. Yunnan's Clean Energy Advantage - Yunnan province has a significant advantage in clean energy, with hydropower accounting for 71.22% of its total electricity generation in 2024 [70]. - The province is positioned to support high-energy-consuming industries like electrolytic aluminum production [70]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies Yunnan's green aluminum industry as having substantial growth opportunities due to its resource advantages and the EU's carbon tax policy [5][8]. - Companies like Yun Aluminum are highlighted as leaders in the green aluminum sector, with a comprehensive production capacity and a focus on sustainable practices [79].