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2025十五五期间我国面临的宏观战略态势研究报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-01 16:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period represents a critical transitional phase for China's development, characterized by both opportunities and challenges in a changing macro strategic landscape [1][17] - The report identifies that during the 2024-2029 period, China is expected to contribute approximately 21% of global new economic activity, surpassing the G7's 20% and the United States' 12%, positioning China as the largest contributor to global economic growth in the next five years [1][17] - The external environment is described as a "challenging strategic opportunity period," where the nature of opportunities shifts from "passively seizing" to "actively shaping" them, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and the evolving global economic landscape [1][18] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of cognitive governance across three dimensions: political, economic-financial, and social-cultural, with a focus on enhancing public understanding and trust in development models [3][14] - It emphasizes the need for a strategic layout of regional economic hubs, leveraging the comparative advantages of cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to promote free flow of data, capital, and labor, thereby activating domestic circulation [4][14] - The report outlines ten strategic tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan," including improving data flow, enhancing macroeconomic governance, advancing digital governance, and fostering sustainable green development [4][14][5] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the digital economy and the need for China to establish a new industrial chain structure through initiatives like the Belt and Road, which will help mitigate short-term shocks to labor-intensive industries while strengthening China's influence in global industrial networks [2][23] - It notes that the global economic integration driven by digital transformation is stabilizing, with China positioned as a hub for supply chain and value chain adjustments by 2030 [2][22] - The report also addresses the necessity for reforms in higher education and healthcare, focusing on aligning talent development with industry needs and promoting domestic production of high-end medical equipment [5][14]