Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250724: Supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month [1] Report Core View - The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month. The prices and production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends, and investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels [1][3] Key Data Summary Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai Aluminum futures on July 23, 2025, was 20,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan compared with the previous day. The trading volume was 144,609 lots, a decrease of 8,809 lots, and the open interest was 327,482 lots, a decrease of 3,415 lots [2] - The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The Shanghai Aluminum basis was 60 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The average national alumina price was 3,239.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41 yuan. The average price of alumina in various regions also showed an upward trend [2] Price Spreads - The spread between the near-month and far-month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum showed different changes. For example, the spread between Shanghai Aluminum Continuous One and Shanghai Aluminum Continuous Two decreased by 20 yuan to 45 yuan [2] - The spread between different contracts of alumina also changed. For example, the spread between Alumina Continuous One and Alumina Continuous Two decreased by 9 yuan to 45 yuan [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai Aluminum futures was 57,723 tons, a decrease of 3,161 tons. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased month-on-month [2][3] - The inventory of LME aluminum futures showed different trends, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was N/A on July 23, 2025 [2] Industry News and Company Dynamics Alumina - Shanxi and Henan have relevant policies for bauxite mines. The production and inventory of domestic alumina have changed, and the production of Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory has increased month-on-month [3] - Some alumina projects are under construction, such as the 1 million-ton alumina production capacity energy-saving and efficiency improvement project in Jinzhong, Shanxi, and the 2.6 million-ton alumina production capacity project in Fangchenggang, Guangxi [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Some companies have expansion plans for electrolytic aluminum projects, such as O Xiangbo Alloy's plan to raise up to 600 million yuan through private placement for its recycled deformed lead alloy project [3] - The production and inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum have changed, and the production of some downstream products may decrease month-on-month [3] Aluminum Alloy - American companies' procurement of scrap aluminum has an impact on the domestic market. The production and inventory of domestic aluminum alloy have different trends, and the production of some products may increase or decrease month-on-month [3] Trading Strategy - Alumina: The decline in the price of imported bauxite weakens production costs, but the upward space for alumina prices is limited. It is recommended that investors hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,800 - 4,200 [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The passage of the US Stablecoin Act and the high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, along with the increase in alumina prices, push up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum. The upward space for electrolytic aluminum prices is limited. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai Aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME Aluminum [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The passage of the US Stablecoin Act and the high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, along with the increase in domestic aluminum alloy inventory, limit the upward space for aluminum alloy prices. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to the support level around 19,700 - 20,000 and the pressure level around 20,500 - 21,000 [3]