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“旧经济”,正在缓缓落幕
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-02 09:46
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a traditional economy to a new economy driven by technology, particularly focusing on the performance of major tech companies and the implications for investment and society [4][8]. Group 1: Declining Traditional Economy - The traditional economy is defined as one built on physical entities, including manufacturing giants and energy companies, which are constrained by physical limitations and regulatory environments [10][12]. - Growth in traditional sectors has stagnated, with U.S. manufacturing worker productivity growing at only 2% annually since 2018, compared to 7% in the tech sector [13]. - In 2022, the digital economy's value added grew by 6.3%, contributing 35% to U.S. economic growth over the past decade [13]. Group 2: Rise of the New Economy - The new economy is characterized by exponential growth potential and a lack of physical constraints, driven by digital technologies and network effects [16][17]. - Companies like Google and Meta benefit from network effects, where increased user numbers enhance service value, creating a self-reinforcing cycle [17]. - AI and automation enable small teams to create significant value, with the potential for "one-person companies" to reach billion-dollar valuations [19][20]. - The cost of adding users in the digital realm is negligible, allowing for global scalability without physical limitations [21]. Group 3: Magnificent Seven as New Productivity Leaders - The "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) now account for approximately 34% of the S&P 500 index, up from 12% in 2015 [25]. - In 2023, these companies achieved a collective return rate of 75.71%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24.23% [26]. - The market growth is primarily driven by these tech giants, which have become infrastructure builders in the new economy [30]. Group 4: Implications for Capital Markets and Society - The transition from old to new economy is reshaping social structures and governance models, presenting both opportunities and risks for investors [31][33]. - The concentration of wealth in tech sectors raises concerns about inequality and the loss of traditional jobs [34]. - The emergence of "network states" is predicted, where communities based on shared values may replace traditional nation-states [36].