Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current economy shows significant differentiation and a general weakening trend, increasing the necessity for policy intervention to stabilize growth. For the bond market, the weakening fundamentals and loose liquidity will drive a trend of strengthening. There may be some risk disturbances in the first half of Q4, and interest rates may decline more smoothly in the second half. The situation where interest rates deviated from both fundamentals and liquidity in Q3 needs to be corrected. The short - term escalation of trade conflicts and the decline in risk appetite have promoted the correction process of the bond market. However, the lack of cooperation from allocation - type institutions, potential bond - selling pressure from banks, and the impact of public fund fee reform still exist, and interest rate declines may not be smooth. The dumbbell strategy is preferred, and short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term high - elasticity products offer higher cost - effectiveness [4][22]. Summary Based on Related Content Economic Growth and Outlook - The GDP growth rate slowed down in Q3 2025, with a real growth rate of 4.8% and a nominal growth rate of 3.7%, the lowest since Q4 2022. Although the full - year target of 5% can be achieved, there is still pressure on nominal growth. Considering the high base of Q4 last year (1.5% for real GDP growth on a quarterly - on - quarterly basis), if the quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate in Q4 does not increase significantly, there may be a continued slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [1][7]. Economic Structural Differentiation - **Supply vs. Demand**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. In September, the industrial added - value growth rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, and the service industry's GDP increased by 5.6% year - on - year, remaining flat compared to the previous month. However, the consumer market and investment continued to weaken. The growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 3.0%, and the single - month fixed - asset investment growth rate slowed to - 8.4% [1][7]. - **External vs. Domestic Demand**: External demand is strong while domestic demand is weak. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, driving the year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value to increase by 4.2 percentage points to 3.8%, which in turn boosted the industrial added - value growth rate. However, domestic consumption and investment continued to decline [2]. - **New vs. Old Economy**: New economy sectors such as the Internet and new energy are growing rapidly, while old economy sectors such as real estate and infrastructure are continuously weakening. In September, the production index of the information transmission, software, and information technology service industries in the service sector increased by 12.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The added - value of the automotive industry in industrial added - value increased by 16% year - on - year, up 7.6 percentage points from the previous month. In contrast, real estate and infrastructure investment declined by 21.3% and 8.0% respectively in September [2]. Consumption Analysis - The growth rate of residents' disposable income slowed down, which restricted consumption. In Q3, the single - quarter year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 4.52%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita consumption expenditure was 3.4%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among the main sub - sectors of social retail sales, the year - on - year growth rates of many industries such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and sports and entertainment products declined. Although the growth rates of four industries with concentrated subsidies (household appliances, furniture, communication products, and office supplies) still supported the year - on - year performance of social retail sales, the policy effect has diminished [3][12]. Investment Analysis - **Overall Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 8.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, the year - on - year declines in the three major industries further widened [15]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.9%, with the decline increasing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Due to weak downstream and terminal demand, corporate profitability was under pressure, which continued to suppress investment willingness [15]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.0%, with the decline increasing significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The high base from the same period last year deepened the investment decline. Although the easing of the base pressure and the implementation of some fiscal incremental policies (such as the Ministry of Finance's release of 500 billion yuan in remaining quotas on October 17) can mitigate the investment slowdown to some extent, the overall impact is limited, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to decline year - on - year [15]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In September, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to widen, reaching - 21.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to fall to - 13.9%. The year - on - year decline in real estate sales also widened, with the sales area falling by 11.9% year - on - year. Although the declines in new construction and completion narrowed, overall, the downward trend in real estate investment continued, increasing the need for policy support [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a traditional economy to a new economy driven by technology, particularly focusing on the performance of major tech companies and the implications for investment and society [4][8]. Group 1: Declining Traditional Economy - The traditional economy is defined as one built on physical entities, including manufacturing giants and energy companies, which are constrained by physical limitations and regulatory environments [10][12]. - Growth in traditional sectors has stagnated, with U.S. manufacturing worker productivity growing at only 2% annually since 2018, compared to 7% in the tech sector [13]. - In 2022, the digital economy's value added grew by 6.3%, contributing 35% to U.S. economic growth over the past decade [13]. Group 2: Rise of the New Economy - The new economy is characterized by exponential growth potential and a lack of physical constraints, driven by digital technologies and network effects [16][17]. - Companies like Google and Meta benefit from network effects, where increased user numbers enhance service value, creating a self-reinforcing cycle [17]. - AI and automation enable small teams to create significant value, with the potential for "one-person companies" to reach billion-dollar valuations [19][20]. - The cost of adding users in the digital realm is negligible, allowing for global scalability without physical limitations [21]. Group 3: Magnificent Seven as New Productivity Leaders - The "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) now account for approximately 34% of the S&P 500 index, up from 12% in 2015 [25]. - In 2023, these companies achieved a collective return rate of 75.71%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24.23% [26]. - The market growth is primarily driven by these tech giants, which have become infrastructure builders in the new economy [30]. Group 4: Implications for Capital Markets and Society - The transition from old to new economy is reshaping social structures and governance models, presenting both opportunities and risks for investors [31][33]. - The concentration of wealth in tech sectors raises concerns about inequality and the loss of traditional jobs [34]. - The emergence of "network states" is predicted, where communities based on shared values may replace traditional nation-states [36].

Core Insights - The growth trajectories of Apple, Microsoft, and Google from 2010 to 2025 show a parallel increase in market value, suggesting a unified growth dynamic despite their different business models [2][3] - Balaji Srinivasan posits that the traditional economy is fading while the internet economy is emerging, marking a significant economic shift [6][10] Group 1: Decline of the Traditional Economy - The traditional economy is characterized by physical entities and linear growth, heavily reliant on capital expenditure and regulatory frameworks [11][12][13] - Key sectors like manufacturing and energy are experiencing stagnation, with U.S. manufacturing worker productivity growth at approximately 2% since 2018, compared to 7% in the tech sector [17][16] Group 2: Rise of the New Economy - The internet economy exhibits exponential growth potential and is driven by network effects, allowing companies like Google and Meta to dominate their markets [20][22] - AI enables small teams to create significant value, with the potential for "one-person companies" to reach valuations of $1 billion [25][26] - The cost of adding users in digital services is negligible, allowing for global scalability without physical constraints [27][28] Group 3: Magnificent Seven as New Productivity Leaders - The "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) now account for about 34% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, up from 12% in 2015 [31] - In 2023, these companies achieved a collective return rate of 75.71%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24.23% [32] - Their platforms are integral to modern business activities, positioning them as infrastructure builders in the new economy [37] Group 4: Societal and Market Implications - The transition from traditional to new economy is reshaping societal structures and investment landscapes, presenting both opportunities and risks [40][41] - The concentration of wealth in technology sectors raises concerns about inequality and job losses in traditional industries [42] - The concept of "network states" may emerge, where communities based on shared values operate with their own currencies and governance, potentially replacing traditional nation-states [44][45]

Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that Hong Kong stocks experienced a historical low in revenue growth for the first half of 2025, while overall profitability has improved [1][2] - The differentiation between new and old economies is evident, with sectors like information technology, pharmaceuticals, and discretionary consumption showing strong performance [1][3] Summary by Category Overall Performance - Revenue growth for all Hong Kong companies decreased by 0.9% in H1 2025, while excluding financials, oil, and real estate, revenue grew by 0.5%. The Hang Seng Index constituent companies saw a revenue increase of 2.6%, all reflecting a slowdown compared to the previous year [2] - Net profit for all Hong Kong companies grew by 5.4%, and for those excluding financials, oil, and real estate, net profit increased by 11.7%, both better than the previous year and at historical median levels [2] Profitability - Overall profitability has improved, with gross margins and operating profit margins showing positive trends year-on-year, although operating profit margins decreased quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit margin for Hong Kong listed companies has improved both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.0%, which is back to historical average levels [2] Industry Differentiation - The fastest revenue growth was seen in information technology (12.3%), discretionary consumption (8.5%), and financials (5.2%), while the largest declines were in real estate (-20.9%), energy (-9%), and utilities (-4.8%) [3] - The highest net profit growth was recorded in healthcare (202.9%), information technology (60.9%), and materials (52.2%), indicating strong performance in the new economy sectors [3] Inventory Cycle - The overall Hong Kong market is undergoing a destocking cycle, with upstream industries continuing to destock while midstream and downstream sectors have entered a replenishment phase [3] - New economy sectors like information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare are in an "active restocking" phase, while traditional sectors like energy and real estate are still in "active destocking" [3] Capital Expenditure - There has been a significant reduction in capital expenditures across most industries during the economic downturn, with real estate, healthcare, and energy showing the least willingness to expand [4] - Only the e-commerce and automotive sectors have seen capital expenditure growth, but this remains at maintenance levels rather than significant increases [4] Industry Fundamentals - High-performing sectors include information technology, non-essential consumer goods distribution and retail (primarily e-commerce), and healthcare, while lower-performing sectors include energy, real estate, and traditional manufacturing [4] - The report suggests that investors should focus on technology growth stocks, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals and less correlation to the Chinese macroeconomic environment [4]

Overall Overview - The revenue growth of Hong Kong stocks is at a historical low, with a decline of 0.9% in 1H25, while net profit growth improved by 5.4% [4][11][28] - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks has improved, with a net profit margin increase despite a decline in operating profit margin [15][21] - The industry structure shows significant differentiation, with new economy sectors like information technology and healthcare performing well, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy are struggling [4][28] Revenue and Profit Trends - In 1H25, the revenue growth for the entire Hong Kong stock market was -0.9%, while the revenue growth excluding financials, oil, and real estate was 0.5% [7][11] - The net profit growth for all Hong Kong stocks was 5.4%, with a notable 11.7% growth excluding financials, oil, and real estate [11][12] - The performance of the Hang Seng Index component companies showed a revenue growth of 2.6%, indicating better resilience among larger firms [7][11] Industry Performance - The fastest revenue growth was observed in information technology (12.3%), consumer discretionary (8.5%), and financials (5.2%), while the largest declines were in real estate (-20.9%), energy (-9%), and utilities (-4.8%) [4][28] - The healthcare sector saw a remarkable net profit growth of 202.9%, driven by continuous achievements in innovative drug development [4][28] - New economy sectors experienced an 8.4% revenue growth and a 31.7% net profit growth, contrasting with a 2.5% revenue decline and stagnant net profit in traditional sectors [4][28] Inventory Cycle and Capital Expenditure - The overall Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a destocking phase, with upstream industries reducing inventory while downstream sectors are entering a replenishment cycle [4][28] - Capital expenditure has significantly contracted across most industries, with only e-commerce and automotive sectors showing expansion, albeit at a maintenance level [4][28] Financial Metrics - The overall return on equity (ROE) for Hong Kong stocks reached 7.0%, recovering to historical average levels [23][24] - The operating cash flow for the Hang Seng Index improved significantly, while other companies faced cash flow deterioration and reduced capital expenditures [21][22] Conclusion - The report highlights a clear divide between the performance of new and old economy sectors, with the former showing resilience and growth potential, while the latter faces significant challenges [4][28]

Core Insights - Global investors have re-evaluated the Chinese technology sector, with significant increases in capital expenditure in the AI field by major internet companies, indicating a sustained high level of spending in the future [7] - The economic stimulus plan from the last quarter of the previous year has shown results, stabilizing the "old economy," although its contribution to overall economic growth is diminishing, which has led to an increase in market risk appetite [7] - The real estate market in certain hot cities has seen a rebound in both volume and price, with a narrowing decline in real estate investment; industrial value-added has stabilized and rebounded; and consumer electronics have experienced significant growth due to subsidy incentives, boosting retail sales data [7][8] Economic Overview - The capital market experienced a shift in pricing style in mid to late March, with concerns over performance uncertainty in the technology sector leading to a risk-averse mode among investors [8] - Traditional safe-haven assets like bonds have been unable to meet the demand for risk aversion due to fluctuations in interest rates, while bank stocks face profit growth limitations due to narrowing net interest margins [8] - REITs have emerged as a stable income-generating investment choice, with the total return of the CSI REITs rising by 10.69% this year, including a 3.7% increase in March alone [8] Consumer Behavior - Consumer data shows a significant divergence, with subsidy-related goods experiencing much higher growth rates compared to service consumption, indicating a strong impact from subsidy policies [11] - The marginal diminishing effect of consumption stimulus policies is evident, as pre-emptive consumption behavior has been observed, particularly in the home appliance sector [11] - Rural consumption has outperformed urban consumption, with rural retail sales showing a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.6%, compared to 3.8% in urban areas [14] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits have shown a negative growth rate of -0.3% in January-February, despite a 5.9% year-on-year increase in industrial value-added, indicating a weak profit margin due to low PPI growth [18] - Manufacturing profits have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, particularly in sectors closely tied to exports [18][19] - The sustainability of export growth is under scrutiny, with concerns over the impact of tariff policies on future export orders [19] Real Estate Market - The recovery in the real estate market is primarily structural, concentrated in core cities and key plots, driven by demand from technology sector re-evaluations [23] - There is still a significant distance to an overall recovery in the real estate market, as evidenced by high levels of unsold inventory and a lack of leverage among buyers [23][24] - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as key tasks for the year, emphasizing the need for more proactive fiscal policies [26]