每经记者｜周程程 每经编辑｜毕陆名 8月7日，国家市场监督管理总局发布了《2018年上半年市场环境形势分析》（以下简称"《分析》"）显 示，上半年，市场主体总量超过1亿户，达到标志性高点，至6月底实有1.03亿户。 其中，企业3231.5万户，占31.4%。按2017年底全国人口计算，平均每千人拥有市场主体74.09户，平均 每千人拥有企业23.25户。 值得注意的是，从重点行业看，制造业新设企业同比增速由一季度下降1.9%提升为增长1.9%；金融企 业继续负增长，下降4.4%；房地产业保持较快增速，增长20.6%。 从企业类型看，外商投资企业保持高速增长态势，新设4.5万户，增长97.4%。特别是在粤港澳大湾区开 放政策的积极影响下，广东新设外资企业2.4万户，增长2.2倍，占全国的54.7%。 市场监管总局指出，新设市场主体的大量涌现，成为创业创新活力的重要标志，对促进就业、增加税收 和促进经济健康发展发挥了重要作用。 图片来源：新华社 数据显示，1~5月，新办理注册登记的税务管理户439.51万户，同比增长7.64%。据测算，新办税务管理 户创办当年纳税对税收增长的贡献率为4.9%，比上年同期提高1.2 ...

在2 0 2 5年11月发布的最新报告中，瑞银对中国经济2 0 2 6至2 0 2 7年的前景 作出展望，指出在政策温和扩张与结构改革的共同推动下，中国经济将逐 步展现其韧性并实现再平衡。报告预计，到2 0 2 7年，中国房地产活动将 趋 于 稳 定 ， 出 口 增 长 逐 步 回 归 常 态 ， 消 费 者 信 心 亦 将 保 持 平 稳 。 与 此 同 时，在创新驱动和产业结构持续优化的背景下，"新经济"有望成为拉动未 来经济增长的关键支撑。 在净出口对增长的贡献可能减弱、外部不确定性持续存在、家庭与企业信心仍待修复的背景下，瑞银预计2026年中国将继续实施温和扩张的宏观政 策，以稳定经济增长和市场预期。政策组合可能包括：将年度增长目标设定在4.5%–5.0%区间，广义财政刺激规模较上年扩大约GDP的1%，政策利 率进一步下调20个基点，并加大对消费、社会保障与创新领域的支持力度。 瑞银于11月发布的中国经济展望报告——《2026-2027年展望：不确定性下的韧性与再平衡》指出，中国经济在未来两年预计将总体保持韧 性。具体而言，2026年消费有望延续温和增长态势，基建与制造业投资则将逐步摆脱下滑压力，实现 ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain weak for the next 4-5 months due to tariffs, but growth is anticipated to accelerate thereafter, particularly influenced by AI developments by 2026 [3][5] - In the baseline scenario, global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025, slightly decreasing to 3.1% in 2026, and then rising to 3.3% in 2027 [5] - The impact of tariffs is expected to suppress global exports and domestic prices in the U.S., while central banks in major emerging economies continue to lower interest rates [5][10] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's expansion is primarily concentrated in AI-related sectors, with GDP growth forecasted to slow from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 due to tariff impacts [10][11] - Inflation is expected to peak around mid-2026, with core PCE inflation projected to decline to 2.9% by Q4 2026 and 2.4% by Q4 2027 [10] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in December 2025 and January 2026 [11] China Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, influenced by a slowdown in exports and a resilient domestic economy [13] - Policy support is anticipated to remain moderate, with fiscal deficits expected to expand slightly [13][14] - The "new economy" sectors are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7-8% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) [14] Eurozone and Japan Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, primarily due to the lagging effects of weak growth in late 2025 [15] - Japan may experience a technical recession in late 2025 but is expected to rebound in mid-2026, supported by a potentially expansionary fiscal policy [16] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index is expected to have about 10% upside in 2026, driven by approximately 14% earnings growth, with a significant contribution from technology companies [18][19] - The current technology cycle is compared to the 1990s, with substantial capital expenditure growth but still below historical peaks [20] Fixed Income and Currency Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to limit the reduction in front-end interest rates, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield projected to drop to 3.50% before rising to 4% by the end of 2026 [21] - The U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its attractiveness compared to other major markets, with the euro projected to trade between 1.14 and 1.18 against the dollar in 2026 [22] Commodity Insights - Gold is expected to outperform industrial and energy commodities, despite currently high valuations, with a reassessment anticipated in late 2026 [23]

Core Viewpoint - The 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo highlights optimism regarding China's economic future, driven by new technological revolutions and internal economic adjustments [1] Economic Cycle Analysis - The difficulties affecting China's economy, such as issues in the real estate sector, are diminishing, while new growth drivers like artificial intelligence are strengthening [1] - The ongoing deepening of reform and opening-up policies continues to release positive forces for economic recovery [1] - The challenging phase of the Chinese economy is approaching its end [1] Technological Revolution Perspective - A new technological revolution, characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence and biomedicine, is progressing rapidly [1] - Unlike previous technological and industrial revolutions where China was a bystander, it is now a participant and leader in this new wave [1] - The new economy is expected to significantly influence and dominate China's future development [1] Long-term Strategic Focus - Emphasizing the importance of self-improvement and addressing internal challenges is crucial for enhancing competitiveness [1] - The future will favor those who strengthen themselves and effectively resolve their issues [1] - A brighter future is anticipated for entities that can elevate their competitiveness in the face of global changes [1]

易峘分析认为，2026年，私有部门在高新技术领域的资本开支有望加速，推动制造业投资较2025年 将有大幅提升。"随着AI投资周期的兴起，中国相关产业链紧随其后并快速崛起，甚至在一些领域出现 领先全球的重要突破。全球都更为清晰地认识到，中国制造业的竞争力远不只来自成本优势，更来自各 方面生产力提升的速度领先于全球。"易峘说，中国企业在人工智能、机器人、新能源等领域的全球竞 争力将进一步增强，推动中国制造从成本优势向技术优势和效率优势转型。 廖博表示，我国未来5年的政策路线进一步明朗化，大幅提高科技自立自强水平是重中之重，并力 争实现"卡脖子"领域的高质量"清零"。廖博表示，重点支持数字经济、人工智能等领域的5000亿元新型 政策性金融工具目前已全部投放完毕，将有力推动相关行业在2026年实现更快发展。 外部环境趋稳 出口韧性增强 2026年是我国"十五五"规划的开局之年。在科技革命与产业变革加速演进、国际环境深刻变化的背 景下，2026年不仅是一个时间节点，更是中国经济结构优化、发展动能转换的重要契机。近日，多家券 商机构发布经济展望报告，围绕经济增长、产业结构、外部环境等多方面展开分析与预测。 在全球经济格局 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is at the beginning of a systematic valuation uplift, with the implied equity risk premium (ERP) reaching a low of approximately 5%, indicating potential for further downward adjustment in the long term [10][20][28] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's industry structure has significantly changed over the past decade, with new economy sectors like technology surpassing traditional sectors in market capitalization and trading volume, which should lead to an upward adjustment in valuation levels [28][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the technology sector, with companies like Alibaba Cloud showing strong revenue growth and profitability improvements due to AI-related services [87][90] Group 2 - The report discusses the interwoven dynamics of fundamentals and liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, noting that improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to enhance risk appetite and attract foreign investment [4][62] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant inflow of foreign capital, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which is expected to reduce the offshore discount and align valuations more closely with global markets [31][35] - The report identifies the cyclical themes and dividend-paying stocks as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials and utilities, which are expected to benefit from improving economic indicators [91]

此次易方达基金将H股ETF（510900）简称变更为"恒生中国企业ETF"，不仅是与时俱进，更加贴 合指数内涵，也是其推动简称标准化的延续。今年以来，易方达在业内率先批量调整旗下ETF简称，基 本实现了"指数名称+ETF"或"指数名称+ETF+公司名称"的标准化命名，帮助投资者更便捷地识别、记 忆和搜索产品，提升投资体验。 每日经济新闻 2025年11月18日起，易方达基金旗下跟踪恒生中国企业指数的H股ETF（510900）正式将扩位简称 变更为"恒生中国企业ETF"，与标的指数名称保持一致，方便投资者直观理解该ETF投向香港上市的内 地企业。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 恒生中国企业指数自1994年诞生以来历经多轮进化，最初仅覆盖内地国有企业，后续纳入中国移动 等红筹股和其他内地民营企业股票，指数实现了从一个狭窄的"H股窗口"到全面代表"香港上市中国核 心资产"的转身。目前指数成分股均为业务根植于中国内地市场的核心企业，精准聚焦"中国内地故 事"的核心叙事，涵盖腾讯、美团、小米等科技与消费龙头，可选消费、信息技术、通讯服务合计占比 超过60%，"新经济"与均衡的特征突出。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与 ...

11月17日，科创债ETF招商（551900）小幅高开，截至发稿涨0.02%。 资金流向上，Wind数据显示，科创债ETF招商（551900）近5日有3日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"近2亿 元；截至11月14日，该ETF最新规模195.62亿元，创历史新高。此外，该ETF11月14日单日成交额109.7 亿元，居同类首位。 消息面上，据中国基金报，今年以来，债券ETF市场扩容明显。Wind数据显示，截至11月14日，53只债 券ETF最新规模达7062.9亿元，再创历史新高。从资金流向来看，年内债券ETF资金净流入超4270亿 元。 华鑫证券分析称，今年以来10年期国债收益率持续在2%以下运行，低利率环境下债市呈现一定资产荒 特征。此前债券发行主体主要包括传统产业、金融企业以及城投国企等，科创债将债市投资者的投资视 野从传统的基建、地产等领域，引向了具备高成长性和技术壁垒的科技创新领域，这推动了债券市场从 服务"旧经济"向支持"新经济"的战略转型。 科创债ETF招商（551900）紧密跟踪中证AAA科技创新公司债指数 (932160.CSI)，该指数从沪深交易所 上市的科技创新公司债中，选取剩余期限、信用评级符 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to enter a period of easing after experiencing trade frictions, with a pattern of "pressure in the first half, recovery in the second half" [2] - Major economies will show divergent growth dynamics, with the US facing pressure from tariffs and fiscal stimulus, but a potential recovery in the second half due to tax rebate policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - European and Japanese economies are projected to have weak growth in early 2026, with Japan possibly facing a brief technical recession, but expected improvements later in the year due to fiscal stimulus [2] China Economic Outlook - China's economy is projected to grow around 4.5% in 2026, with a narrowing contribution from exports, particularly to non-US markets [3][21] - Consumer spending is expected to maintain moderate growth despite pressures from limited income growth and wealth effects, supported by policy measures such as expanded subsidies for trade-ins [3] - Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to recover from an overheated state, showing moderate growth, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [3][21] New Economy and Structural Changes - The new economy is becoming a significant growth engine for China, currently accounting for 15%-20% of GDP and contributing to a quarter of economic growth over the past five years [3][4] - Increased R&D investment and leading growth in fixed asset investment are driving rapid development in the technology sector, which is crucial for economic resilience [3] - Structural policies aimed at enhancing consumption, such as improving the social security system and optimizing income distribution, are expected to gradually release consumption potential [3][4] Long-term Themes - In the medium to long term, China's economic focus will be on four main themes: technological innovation, consumption, green development, and opening up to the outside world [4] - The potential for the consumption market will be gradually released through various policies, while foreign investors show increased interest in the Chinese market, particularly regarding innovation and real estate stabilization [4]

Economic Performance - In October, China's GDP growth rate slowed to 4.2% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from September, significantly below the annual growth target[1] - Industrial added value dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%, marking a new low for the year[1] - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 11.0% year-on-year, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments continuing to decrease[1] Consumer Market Insights - Total retail sales of consumer goods slightly decreased to 2.9% year-on-year, but excluding automobiles, the growth rate rebounded to 4.0%[1] - Restaurant consumption growth significantly increased to 3.8%, indicating a recovery in the service sector[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.1 percentage points[1] Future Outlook - Positive factors are accumulating, with signs of structural recovery in consumption and a steady decline in the unemployment rate, suggesting sustained consumer demand[2] - Fiscal space remains ample, with fiscal deposits exceeding the average of the past three years by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, providing strong support for counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been completed, focusing on new economic sectors such as digital economy and artificial intelligence[2] Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with potential weakening of policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[2]