以下文章来源于熊园观察 ，作者熊园、刘新宇 熊园观察 . 记录【国盛证券.熊园团队】对宏观经济的思考。 文/国盛证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 熊园 4月初特朗普宣布对等关税后，部分观点认为海外国家可以采取抛售美债 的 方式来反制，虽然 近期关税有 所缓和， 但尚不 能 排除后 续是否出 现 反 复。由于目前美债规模十分庞大，市场担忧一旦海外国家抛售美债，可能 导致美债市场出现系统性风险。本文从美债期限结构与投资者结构、到期 分布与偿还压力、交易规模与外国减持复盘这3大维度，详细分析了美债 市场的运行状况，并对潜在抛售风险做出评估。 美债期限结构与投资者结构 期限结构： 美国国债期限可大致划分为短期（1年以内，也称T-Bills）、中期（1-10年，也称T-Notes）、长期（10年以上，也称T- Bonds）。存量角度看，截至2025年3月，短期国债占比21.5%，中期国债占比51.8%，长期国债占比17.2%，此外还包括TIPS债券和浮动 利率票据，规模较小。增量角度看，2023年以来，美债发行中短期国债占比基本保持80%以上。通常而言，美国政府为降低负债成本， 往往会在低利率时发行更多中长期 ...

Macro Analysis - The risk of foreign countries selling U.S. Treasuries is a concern, especially in light of recent tariff announcements by Trump, but the actual impact may be limited due to the scale of the U.S. Treasury market[1] - The total outstanding U.S. Treasuries and daily trading volume are significantly larger than the holdings of any single foreign country, indicating that no single nation can manipulate the market[1] - Historical data shows that foreign selling has less impact on Treasury yields compared to fundamental variables[1] Treasury Structure - As of March 2025, the maturity structure of U.S. Treasuries is as follows: short-term (1 year or less) at 21.5%, medium-term (1-10 years) at 51.8%, and long-term (over 10 years) at 17.2%[2] - Foreign investors hold 33.0% of U.S. Treasuries, with the largest holders being Japan (12.5%), the UK (8.6%), and China (8.5%) as of March 2025[2] Maturity and Repayment Pressure - The total maturity of U.S. Treasuries reached $12 trillion from January to May 2025, compared to $11.5 trillion in the same period last year, indicating a rolling peak in maturity pressure[3] - The U.S. government is currently at its statutory debt ceiling, limiting new issuances until Congress acts, which could increase future maturity pressure if the ceiling is raised[3] Trading Volume and Foreign Selling - The average daily trading volume of U.S. Treasuries reached $1.36 trillion as of April 2025, exceeding the holdings of any single foreign country, such as Japan, which holds approximately $1.13 trillion[6] - Historical trends show that reductions in foreign holdings, such as China's decrease from $1.3 trillion in 2015 to under $800 billion by March 2025, have not led to significant deviations in Treasury yields from fundamental trends[7] Conclusion on Foreign Selling Impact - If tariffs lead to foreign countries reducing their Treasury holdings, it is unlikely to cause sustained increases in Treasury yields due to several factors, including the vast size of the Treasury market and limited alternative reserve assets[8] - A coordinated and aggressive sell-off by multiple countries could pose a significant risk to the Treasury market and global financial stability, but this scenario is considered less likely[8]