以下文章来源于熊园观察 ，作者熊园、刘新宇 熊园观察 . 记录【国盛证券.熊园团队】对宏观经济的思考。 文/国盛证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 熊园 4月初特朗普宣布对等关税后，部分观点认为海外国家可以采取抛售美债 的 方式来反制，虽然 近期关税有 所缓和， 但尚不 能 排除后 续是否出 现 反 复。由于目前美债规模十分庞大，市场担忧一旦海外国家抛售美债，可能 导致美债市场出现系统性风险。本文从美债期限结构与投资者结构、到期 分布与偿还压力、交易规模与外国减持复盘这3大维度，详细分析了美债 市场的运行状况，并对潜在抛售风险做出评估。 美债期限结构与投资者结构 期限结构： 美国国债期限可大致划分为短期（1年以内，也称T-Bills）、中期（1-10年，也称T-Notes）、长期（10年以上，也称T- Bonds）。存量角度看，截至2025年3月，短期国债占比21.5%，中期国债占比51.8%，长期国债占比17.2%，此外还包括TIPS债券和浮动 利率票据，规模较小。增量角度看，2023年以来，美债发行中短期国债占比基本保持80%以上。通常而言，美国政府为降低负债成本， 往往会在低利率时发行更多中长期 ...

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The report analyzes the risk of a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, indicating that the scale of US Treasury holdings and daily trading volume is significantly larger than that of any other country, suggesting that no single nation can manipulate the US Treasury market [2] - Historical data shows that reductions in overseas holdings have less impact on US Treasury trends compared to fundamental variables, but a coordinated sell-off by multiple countries in response to tariffs could significantly disrupt the US Treasury market and global financial markets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income - In April, the broad fiscal revenue showed a slight positive change with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while fiscal expenditure grew by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in spending [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 7.2% [2] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - Investment recommendations for the liquor sector emphasize strengthening core capabilities and highlight three main lines: leading brands with increasing market share, high-certainty regional brands, and resilient recovery stocks [3] - For consumer products, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in beer and beverages, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from policy changes or recovery improvements, as well as those with high growth potential [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report discusses the collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion [6] - Sanofi retains rights for development and commercialization in mainland China, while Pfizer will have an option for commercialization in that region based on agreed financial terms [6]

消息人士表示，香港投资基金公会已将基金经理的忧虑转达予强积金管理局及财经事务及库务局。据称，该协 会建议当局就美国国债作出例外处理，即使其评级低于AAA一级，亦应允许基金继续投资相关资产。香港投 资基金公会已向积金局、财经事务及库务局提出基金经理的疑虑，建议相关部门对美国国债作例外处理。 这一情况凸显出美国可能因违反香港法律下异常严格的投资规定而面临风险。全球大多数投资者在投资美国国 债时并不要求最高等级评级，这也降低了被迫出售的风险。 美债，事未了！ 彭博社引述消息人士报道称，在穆迪下调美国信用评级后，香港基金经理警告，其持有的美国国债可能面临被 迫抛售的风险。在香港强积金（MPF）制度下，资产总额达1.3万亿港元（约1660亿美元）的基金，只有在获 认可评级机构的AAA或同等级评级时，才可将超过10%的资产投资于美国国债。 与此同时，CME（芝加哥商品交易所）的未平仓合约数据显示，市场出现了大规模押注十年期美债收益率在 未来几周内攀升至5%的期权交易，金额规模高达1100万美元。据摩根大通的客户调查，美债看空头寸攀升至2 月10日以来的最高水平。 截至券商中国记者发稿，美股三大股指期货延续跌势，纳指期货跌 ...

Macro Analysis - The risk of foreign countries selling U.S. Treasuries is a concern, especially in light of recent tariff announcements by Trump, but the actual impact may be limited due to the scale of the U.S. Treasury market[1] - The total outstanding U.S. Treasuries and daily trading volume are significantly larger than the holdings of any single foreign country, indicating that no single nation can manipulate the market[1] - Historical data shows that foreign selling has less impact on Treasury yields compared to fundamental variables[1] Treasury Structure - As of March 2025, the maturity structure of U.S. Treasuries is as follows: short-term (1 year or less) at 21.5%, medium-term (1-10 years) at 51.8%, and long-term (over 10 years) at 17.2%[2] - Foreign investors hold 33.0% of U.S. Treasuries, with the largest holders being Japan (12.5%), the UK (8.6%), and China (8.5%) as of March 2025[2] Maturity and Repayment Pressure - The total maturity of U.S. Treasuries reached $12 trillion from January to May 2025, compared to $11.5 trillion in the same period last year, indicating a rolling peak in maturity pressure[3] - The U.S. government is currently at its statutory debt ceiling, limiting new issuances until Congress acts, which could increase future maturity pressure if the ceiling is raised[3] Trading Volume and Foreign Selling - The average daily trading volume of U.S. Treasuries reached $1.36 trillion as of April 2025, exceeding the holdings of any single foreign country, such as Japan, which holds approximately $1.13 trillion[6] - Historical trends show that reductions in foreign holdings, such as China's decrease from $1.3 trillion in 2015 to under $800 billion by March 2025, have not led to significant deviations in Treasury yields from fundamental trends[7] Conclusion on Foreign Selling Impact - If tariffs lead to foreign countries reducing their Treasury holdings, it is unlikely to cause sustained increases in Treasury yields due to several factors, including the vast size of the Treasury market and limited alternative reserve assets[8] - A coordinated and aggressive sell-off by multiple countries could pose a significant risk to the Treasury market and global financial stability, but this scenario is considered less likely[8]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu retracted his earlier statement suggesting that Japan could use its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Statements and Clarifications - Kato emphasized that Japan's holding of U.S. Treasury bonds, amounting to nearly $1.13 trillion, is primarily for ensuring liquidity and stabilizing the yen, not as a bargaining chip in negotiations [3][4] - His initial comments were made during a time when Japan was engaged in tariff negotiations with the U.S., which raised concerns about Japan's cautious approach to its U.S. bond holdings [3][5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Analysts noted that even the suggestion of using U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiation tool could increase volatility in the U.S. bond market, especially following recent trade tensions [5][7] - The potential for Japan or other major holders to sell U.S. bonds could lead to higher U.S. interest rates, complicating the financing of the U.S. budget deficit and impacting borrowers [7][8] - Historical context was provided, referencing former Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro's similar comments about selling U.S. bonds, which led to market turmoil and a retraction of his statements [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's significant holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds may serve as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with the U.S., as stated by Japan's Finance Minister, Taro Kato [1][2] Group 1: Japan's Position on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Japan holds approximately $1.13 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest foreign holder, followed by China with $784 billion [1] - Kato acknowledged that Japan's stance on not selling U.S. bonds could be used as a negotiation tool, although he did not indicate any intention to sell [1][2] - The discussion around Japan's bond holdings is seen as a serious matter, with potential market impacts even from mere threats of selling [1][2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is currently in Washington for the second round of trade talks, aiming to reach an agreement by June [1][3] - The discussions include topics such as expanding bilateral trade, non-tariff measures, and economic security cooperation [3] - There is no indication that currency reserves or related issues were discussed during the meetings, focusing instead on trade agreements [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Historical Context - Previous comments by Japanese officials regarding U.S. bonds have been cautious due to potential market volatility, making Kato's remarks particularly noteworthy [2] - Historical context is provided by referencing former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's past comments that led to significant market declines [2] - Analysts suggest that linking U.S. Treasury bonds to trade negotiations could lead to increased risks for U.S. bond investors if foreign investors begin to sell off [3]