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美债流动性危机
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黄金价格冲破3200美元
第一财经· 2025-04-11 13:08
2025.04. 11 本文字数:1126,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 4月11日,全球黄金市场迎来历史性时刻,纽约COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中飙升至3255美元/盎 司。 而黄金期货价格从每盎司3100美元关口到3200美元,仅用了约10个交易日。 国内市场上,截至4月11日收盘,沪金期货主力合约亦同步刷新纪录,最高触及763.62元/克,收盘报 757.30元/克,单日涨幅达2.71%。零售端金饰价格随之水涨船高,品牌足金饰品价格突破千元大 关。 "特朗普政府的对等关税政策正在加速全球去美元化进程,美元信用每被削弱一分,黄金的货币属性 便强化一分。"一位贵金属交易员对第一财经分析称,当地时间4月10日,衡量美元对六种主要货币 的美元指数跌破100,为2023年7月以来首次。纽约股市三大股指10日显著下跌,美债避险功能遭遇 空前挑战。 广州金控期货研究所副总经理程小勇也认为,黄金价格重启涨势,并在4月11日再创历史新高,预计 后市还会再创新高,特朗普政府的关税政策很可能进一步削减美元信用,加快全球去美元化进程,关 税博弈还会持续,有利于黄金货币属性的回归。 永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇 ...
【平安固收】海外观察室:美债流动性危机行至何处?
Ping An Securities· 2025-04-10 06:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic caused by recent tariffs has led investors to de - leverage and chase cash, resulting in the selling of both safe and risky assets. The 10Y US Treasury yield has risen by up to 60BP from the low of 3.9% on April 7th, approaching 4.5%, and the 10Y breakeven inflation rate has decreased, indicating that the yield increase is due to institutional de - leveraging rather than inflation trading. The selling of US Treasuries may be due to investors selling to replenish margins and hedge funds closing basis trades in high - volatility situations [3]. - The current US Treasury liquidity shock is similar to that in March 2020 but less severe. So far, the shock has not spread to the money market, with stable trading volume in the federal funds market and stable bill financing costs. Off - shore US dollar liquidity has tightened slightly [3]. - The current liquidity shock may not have reached the level requiring Fed intervention. If tariff negotiations progress and the US stock market stabilizes, the selling pressure on US Treasuries may ease, and the liquidity shock may subside spontaneously. However, if external policy shocks intensify market panic, the shock could spread to the money market, and the Fed may provide liquidity support through tools despite a low probability of emergency rate cuts [3]. - In an environment of high policy uncertainty, investors are advised to control their positions in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Current US Treasury Market Situation - The 10Y US Treasury yield has risen significantly due to de - leveraging, and the 10Y breakeven inflation rate has decreased, showing non - inflation - driven yield increase [3]. - Credit spreads have widened significantly, while bill financing spreads have remained low. Off - shore US dollar liquidity has tightened marginally, and the federal funds market trading volume has remained stable [3][11][15]. Comparison with 2020 March Situation - The current US Treasury liquidity shock is similar to that in March 2020 but less severe [3]. - In March 2020, the shock lasted nearly ten days, leading to Fed emergency rate cuts and QE. There were a series of events such as stock market circuit - breakers, increased repo投放, and the establishment of multiple Fed facilities [18].