Group 1 - The article discusses the positive performance of the US economy in July, which exceeded expectations, leading to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the US [2] - Developed market indices saw an overall increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.7% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% [4][5] - The article highlights the significant rebound in glass prices, which increased by 13.9% [50] Group 2 - The article notes that the US core CPI for July was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, but the performance of goods related to tariffs was notably weak [70][74] - The article mentions that the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, driven by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [70] Group 3 - The article reports that the US Treasury auction demand remained robust, with strong absorption rates for short-term bonds, indicating stable interest from overseas and money market funds [68] - The article details the performance of various sectors within the S&P 500, with healthcare, consumer discretionary, and communication services rising by 4.6%, 2.5%, and 2.1% respectively [10]

Economic Indicators - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is now at 88.90%, up from 80.30% the previous week[3] Market Trends - Global stock markets mostly rose this week, driven by expectations of monetary easing following Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.27%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $0.96 million, while passive funds experienced a larger outflow of $3.44 million from the Chinese market[17] - Domestic funds also faced outflows, with $0.50 million leaving the market, and foreign funds withdrawing $4.40 million[17] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for all A-shares decreased from 64% to 62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP fell from 57% to 53%[3] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 increased from the 48th percentile to the 55th percentile, indicating improved performance expectations[3] Sector Performance - In the US market, funds flowed into the communication, technology, and utilities sectors, while energy, healthcare, and financial sectors saw outflows[3] - In the Chinese market, funds flowed into financials, consumer, and technology sectors, with outflows from infrastructure, real estate, and healthcare[3]

Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a general adjustment, with Hong Kong, France, Germany, and the US stock markets showing significant declines. A-shares, after five consecutive weeks of gains, faced a correction, with major indices generally declining. In terms of sectors, A-share CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains, while cyclical products like coal and non-ferrous metals saw a pullback. The domestic commodity market cooled down due to risk warnings from the three major futures exchanges and position limits on certain products, leading to sharp declines in previously strong commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon. On the international front, Trump's announcement on July 30 regarding copper tariffs did not impose restrictions on copper raw materials, resulting in a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index plummeted after the release of non-farm payroll data on Friday, with market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly increasing [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market correction is temporary, and the slow bull market trend remains unchanged. Following the July Politburo meeting and the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, the market's speculation on incremental policies has cooled down, and after five weeks of consecutive gains, the index requires a phase of adjustment. Looking ahead, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively ample, which is conducive to the continuation of the slow bull trend in A-shares. Since the "623" market, A-shares have shown clear characteristics of "rotating upward and low-level replenishment," with better sustainability of the profit-making effect. Additionally, the sources of incremental capital in the market are diverse, with increased participation from public and private equity institutions, and the positive feedback effect of "residents allocating funds into the market and the slow rise of the stock market" is expected to strengthen [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for sector allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries; 2) Reallocation opportunities in dividend sectors after corrections, such as certain undervalued state-owned enterprises. Thematic areas of interest include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation, with June CPI data reflecting these influences. The overall market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain stable, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December [6][7]. Market Trends - Domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,559.79, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11,007.49, up 0.86% [4]. - In the U.S. market, major indices exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.59% [6]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes a decline in initial jobless claims to 221,000, continuing a five-week downward trend. The June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, up from 2.38%, indicating a rebound influenced by tariffs, particularly in used car prices and imported goods [6][7]. - The analysis suggests limited further increases in tariffs due to insufficient economic fundamentals to absorb negative impacts, with expectations that the inflationary effects of tariffs will diminish by the third quarter [6]. Currency and Credit Dynamics - The report discusses the historical evolution of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor, transitioning from the gold standard to a debt-driven economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the dollar in maintaining its value amidst increasing debt and geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - Short-term outlook for the dollar indicates a weak and volatile trend, with potential for structural depreciation in the medium term due to diverging monetary policies and fiscal sustainability concerns [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows boosting stock prices, particularly in domestic demand-driven sectors. Bonds are expected to benefit from a rebalancing of dollar assets [10]. - The report emphasizes the continued importance of gold as an investment, recommending accumulation during price corrections, supported by factors such as a weak dollar and central bank demand for diversification [10].

Global Asset Price Review - The report highlights that global trade uncertainty has increased due to President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on 14 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70% expected to take effect on August 1, 2025. This has led to a rise in commodity assets [1][8] - In terms of market performance, the report notes that the 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.43%, while the dollar index slightly rebounded to 97.9, remaining below 100. Asian stock markets showed positive performance, with the European Stoxx 600 up by 1.15%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 0.93% and the CSI 300 at 0.82% [1][8] - Commodity prices also saw increases, with crude oil rising by 3.09% and gold by 0.71% [1][8] Global Fund Flows - The report indicates a significant inflow of funds into developed markets, particularly in the US and Europe. US fixed income funds saw an inflow of $9.51 billion, while US equity funds attracted $4.91 billion. In contrast, Chinese equity funds experienced a slight outflow [1][15] - Sector-wise, US funds saw inflows into financials, utilities, and technology, while outflows were noted in consumer, industrials, and healthcare sectors. In China, inflows were observed in technology, finance, and materials, with outflows in consumer, communication, and healthcare sectors [1][15] Global Asset Valuation - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets. The CSI 300 ERP decreased by 1 percentage point to 68%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ERP fell by 2 percentage points to 60% [1][8] - The ERP for major US indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq is reported at 2%, 2%, and 3% respectively, indicating lower risk-adjusted returns compared to Chinese markets [1][8] Global Economic Data - The report notes that the global trade situation has become tense again due to Trump's tariff announcements, with tariffs on imports from the notified countries expected to range from 25% to 40%. Additionally, a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US was mentioned, although the effective date was not specified [1][8] - Key economic indicators to watch include China's June export figures, Q2 GDP growth, and the US June CPI [1][8]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has raised its unemployment rate and PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while lowering GDP expectations[3] - Nominal PCE and core PCE are projected to rise above 3%, with current core PCE at 2.52% and nominal PCE at 2.15%[4][15] - Inflation is expected to return to an upward trend in the second half of the year due to reduced negative contributions from energy and the delayed effects of tariffs[4][15] Employment Trends - Non-farm unemployment rate remains stable but shows signs of gradual weakening, with 350,000 new unemployed in the first half of 2025[5][16] - An estimated 500,000 new unemployed individuals are expected in 2023-2024, indicating a potential acceleration in job market cooling[5][16] Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for potential cuts mirroring the 2024 scenario, driven by unexpected economic weakness[6][20] - The dot plot indicates 7 officials expect no rate cuts in 2025, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a more cautious outlook compared to March[20] Asset Market Insights - The FOMC's impact on assets is minimal, with a slight increase in 10Y Treasury yields by 5 basis points and a $15 drop in COMEX gold prices[7][21] - Focus for the second half of the year will be on the interplay between U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, with a target yield range of 4.5%-4.6% for 10Y Treasuries[7][21] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks are rising, alongside uncertainties related to Trump’s policies and the potential for economic weakness exceeding expectations[9][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow marginally in the second half of 2025, with a low probability of recession. The growth rate gap between the US and non - US economies will continue to narrow. Q3 is relatively cautious, while Q4 and 2026 are moderately optimistic [2][50]. - The US CPI is expected to rebound in Q3 and then decline from Q4 to early 2026. However, recent Middle - East geopolitical risks bring uncertainties to the energy - inflation chain [50][61]. - Globally, there is no macro - environment for demand - inflation - inventory to rise. The employment situation is marginally weakening, and the consumption demand in the second half of the year may not be strong. The manufacturing and inventory cycles may improve slightly, but the space is limited [3]. - If the tariff policy remains stable and geopolitical risks are controllable, there may be a combination of moderate interest rate cuts (1 - 2 times) and moderate fiscal stimulus (tax cuts) in the US in the second half of the year, which may drive the macro - economy positively, but this depends on the situation [3]. - The US dollar index will remain weak in the second half of the year, but the decline rate is expected to slow down, with a target of 95 [3]. - The allocation of 10Y US Treasury bonds may reach its peak in Q3 this year. Looking forward to the second half of the year and 2026, the target yields of 10Y US Treasury bonds are set at 3.95% and 3.42%. There are entry points for long - term US Treasury bond allocation in the second half of the year, and opportunities for a "bullish steepening" of the US Treasury bond curve in Q4 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Overseas Macroeconomic Main Logic and Major Asset Performance Review 3.1.1 2025 H1 Overseas Macroeconomic Main Logic - The macro - economic cycle in 2025 was predicted to be relatively stable and decline moderately compared to 2024. The US quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate was expected to decline in H1 and rebound in H2. The inflation continued to decline, and employment weakened moderately [6]. - In Q1, there were differences between the expected and actual US policies. The US economic momentum declined marginally, while non - US economic momentum rebounded. US asset valuations were high, and the core sectors of the US stock market declined [7]. - In Q2, the 4.2 reciprocal tariffs exceeded expectations and then entered an "exemption period" and a "negotiation period". The "stagflation trade" was formed and then eased. The "US exception" was reversed, and the "de - dollarization" trade was strengthened [8]. - Tariff shocks: In Q1, the intensity of tariffs was lower than expected, and in Q2, it suddenly increased and then declined marginally. The average US tariff rate reached a peak of about 26.8% in early April and then stabilized at around 13.45%. The tariff shock had a negative impact on non - US demand and increased US cost - inflation [9]. - Economic momentum: The US economic momentum declined marginally since H2 2024. In Q1 2025, the net export item was a major drag on GDP, but domestic consumption showed resilience. The data showed a structure of "weak expectations and strong reality" [17]. - Dual goals: In H1, there were significant differences between inflation expectations and reality, as well as between long - term and short - term inflation. The actual CPI growth rate was stable, while inflation expectations were strong [20]. - Relative strength: The growth rate gap between the US and non - US economies was narrowing, which was an important fundamental background for the reversal of the "US exception" and the "de - dollarization" narrative. Non - US economies were stronger than the US in terms of economic data surprises [23]. 3.1.2 H1 Major Asset Performance Review - The first half of the year was divided into two stages around April 2. Q1 was characterized by trading the expectation difference after the implementation of Trump 2.0 policies, with the reversal of the "US exception" and the rebound of non - US valuations. Q2 was characterized by the decline of tariff shocks and the rebound of risk assets [27][30]. - In terms of major asset performance, risk assets first declined and then rose, non - US assets were stronger than US assets, valuation repair was faster than demand repair, and supply factors led to differences in commodity performance [35]. 3.2 2025 H2 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 Core Conclusion - The US GDP growth rate will slow marginally in H2, with a low probability of recession. The growth rate gap between the US and non - US economies will continue to narrow. Q3 is relatively cautious, while Q4 and 2026 are moderately optimistic [50]. - Inflation will be affected by supply - side shocks in H2, with a rebound in Q3 and a decline from Q4 to 2026. However, Middle - East geopolitical risks bring uncertainties to energy inflation [50]. - Globally, there is no macro - environment for demand - inflation - inventory to rise. The employment situation is marginally weakening, and consumption demand may not be strong in H2. The manufacturing and inventory cycles may improve slightly, but the space is limited [50]. 3.2.2 Economic Growth - The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow marginally in H2, with a low point in Q4. The US economic growth rate gap with the eurozone will continue to narrow. The financial conditions index may face resistance in further improvement, which may lead to a decline in real - time GDP momentum in Q3 [53][54]. 3.2.3 Inflation Trend - The US CPI growth rate is expected to rebound in Q3 and reach its peak in Q4, then decline until 2026. Middle - East geopolitical risks may lead to an increase in energy inflation. In the long - term, if the geopolitical - energy - inflation situation is controllable, there may be an opportunity for inflation to return downward [61][63]. 3.2.4 Cycle Positioning - There is no strong demand cycle globally. Employment may receive positive contributions from consumer and business confidence improvement and seasonal factors, but key sectors may remain weak. Consumption demand may not be strong, and there are uncertainties in the "抢进口" and "抢补库" behaviors. The manufacturing and inventory cycles may improve slightly in H2, but the space is limited [74][84][95]. 3.2.5 Tariff Impact - After the Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement, the US average tariff rate on China decreased, and the average tariff rate on the rest of the world also declined. The probability of further tariff escalation between the US and China is low, but there is high uncertainty in the US - RoW tariff policy. Tariffs still have a negative impact on demand - cost [102]. - From the perspective of supply - chain dependence and tariff cost bearers, "embargo - level" tariffs are not realistic. The US "抢进口" and inventory replenishment have certain characteristics, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be reflected in July [103][112]. 3.2.6 Fiscal Policy - The "One big, beautiful bill" may have different impacts in different time dimensions. In the 10 - year dimension, its impact on long - term US Treasury bonds is limited. In the 3 - year dimension, it may increase the interest rate center. In the 3 - month dimension, it may drive the interest rate up in the short - term [122]. - Stable tariff revenue can offset fiscal expenditure to some extent, but the tariff rate needs to balance tax revenue, trade, and economic stability [133]. 3.2.7 Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to have 1 - 2 interest rate cuts this year, possibly in September, October, or December. In Q3, the Fed's tone may be hawkish, while in Q4, interest rate cuts may be implemented, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026 will be opened. The Fed's interest rate cuts may be greater than those of other central banks in 2026, which may lead to a weakening of the US dollar index in the medium - term [137][138][139]. 3.3 2025 H2 Major Asset Performance Outlook 3.3.1 2025 H2 US Dollar Index Outlook - The view of a weak US dollar is maintained. In H2, the US dollar index will remain weak, but the decline rate will slow down, with a target of 95. The driving factors will change from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US and non - US economies and the increase in the hedging demand for US dollar assets [150]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the US dollar is overvalued, and the driving factors for its strength are weakening. The "US exception" in the FX market is reversing, and the US dollar is expected to return to its equilibrium level [151][152][155].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell significantly by 1.1% to 98.15, while WTI crude oil surged by 13% to $73.0 per barrel, indicating a volatile market environment [1][50][32] - The S&P 500 sectors showed mixed performance, with energy and healthcare sectors rising by 5.7% and 1.2% respectively, while financials, industrials, and consumer staples fell by 2.6%, 1.6%, and 1.1% respectively [9][15] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, with healthcare and materials sectors rising by 8.8% and 7.0% [15][70] Group 2 - The second round of US-China trade negotiations concluded, focusing on the implementation details of the Geneva agreement, including export supervision mechanisms and rare earth exports [1][70] - The US Treasury auction results were stronger than expected, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.421%, which was 6 basis points lower than expected [72] - The US fiscal deficit rose to $316 billion in May, with total revenue reaching $371.2 billion, driven by a significant increase in tariff revenues [75][76]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

Report Title - 4月全球固收市场"去美元化"更显著——全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年4月） [1] Report Core View - In April 2025, the "de-dollarization" trend in the global fixed-income market became more prominent. The global financial market was significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a sharp decline in the dollar index and increased concerns about the US dollar's credit. Global funds showed a clear shift from the US fixed-income market to other regions, especially emerging markets and European markets. Meanwhile, global funds flowed back into the Chinese equity market [3][8][25]. Market Review: Tariff Shocks Intensify Global Market Volatility - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff Plan" and China's countermeasures in early April led to a liquidity crisis in the global stock market, which then rebounded after Trump postponed the tariff implementation. The US dollar index weakened significantly in April, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased marginally. Global stock markets fluctuated sharply, with European and Japanese assets outperforming US dollar-denominated assets. Precious metals rose significantly, while oil and copper prices fell [3][5][8]. - Global funds flowed out of the money market in April, with a net outflow of $31 billion, a significant decline compared to the $35 billion inflow in March. Global funds flowed into developed and emerging stock markets, with inflows of $51 billion and $26 billion respectively. High-yield bonds and emerging market bonds saw outflows [3][18]. Global Asset Classes: Significant Outflow of US Fixed-Income Funds in April - US fixed-income funds experienced a large outflow in April, with a net outflow of $23.234 billion, compared to an inflow of $2.0881 billion in March. In contrast, global equity funds received significant inflows, with China and Europe leading the way [12][25][30]. - The money market saw a large outflow of funds in April, while developed and emerging stock markets continued to attract inflows. The inflow into developed stock markets weakened marginally, while the inflow into emerging stock markets strengthened [18]. - Emerging market equity funds received a large inflow in April, reaching $28.085 billion, a significant increase compared to the $3.22 billion inflow in March. The inflow into the US stock market slowed down [25]. - In April, the inflow into developed and emerging equity markets accelerated. After Trump postponed the tariff implementation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly. The inflow into developed equity markets was $56.47 billion, and the inflow into emerging equity markets was $17.046 billion [39]. Chinese Stocks and Bonds: Global Funds Flow Back into Chinese Equity in April - According to the EPFR fund data, global equity funds flowed into the Chinese market in April, with a net inflow of $20.976 billion, compared to an outflow of $0.895 billion in March. Passive ETFs were the main source of inflow, while active mutual funds continued to outflow [27][60]. - Domestic funds flowed into the Chinese stock market in April, while foreign funds flowed out. Southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, mainly into the non-essential consumer sector [61][63][70]. - Global funds flowed into the technology, real estate, and telecommunications sectors in the Chinese stock market in April, while the financial and consumer staples sectors saw significant outflows [64]. - The inflow of global funds into the Chinese fixed-income market slowed down in April, with a net inflow of $1.523 billion, compared to an inflow of $3.249 billion in March [71]. Country Allocation: Reduced Allocation to US Stocks and Increased Allocation to European, Japanese, and Chinese Stocks in March - In March 2025, global stock market funds reduced their allocation to US stocks and continued to increase their allocation to European stocks. The allocation ratio of global funds to the US stock market decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 61%, while the allocation to European stocks such as the UK, France, Switzerland, and Germany increased [75][77]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the allocation ratio of global funds to the Chinese stock market has continued to rise, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, which is at the 26.4% percentile of historical levels [77]. - In March, emerging market funds increased their allocation to the Chinese and Indian stock markets, while significantly reducing their allocation to the Taiwanese market [78][80]. - As of March 2025, funds from various regions increased their allocation to the Chinese stock market, including global, global (excluding the US), emerging market, Asia-Pacific, and Asia (excluding Japan) funds [83].