Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. market is facing a potential crisis due to rising concerns over fiscal prospects, leading to a significant impact on both U.S. Treasury yields and equities [1][2] - Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos suggests two main solutions: major revisions to Trump's tax cuts and stricter fiscal policies, or a depreciation of the dollar to enhance the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries to foreign buyers [1] - Goldman Sachs' Rich Privorotsky indicates that rising Treasury yields are exerting pressure on overall risk assets, potentially leading to a decline in the dollar and a rise in non-traditional assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [1][2] Group 2 - Privorotsky identifies a "reflexive cycle" around fiscal budgets, with pressure concentrated on long-term interest rates and the dollar if fiscal spending continues and the U.S. economy remains resilient [2] - Three potential paths to address the situation are proposed, all of which do not support a stronger dollar, explaining the influx of funds into non-traditional assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [2] - The performance of gold, cryptocurrencies, and non-U.S. equities signals that the market may be pricing in structural pressures, with a clear path emerging for the latter [2] Group 3 - Privorotsky expresses concerns about the U.S. stock market, noting that recent technical demand has driven the market, but the risk-reward ratio appears unfavorable due to high tariffs and rising interest rates [3] - He likens tariffs to a new tax, suggesting that higher rates will not benefit fundamental growth, and that volatility has been reset with potential for increase [3] - Three difficult solutions are outlined: large-scale government spending cuts, financial repression through monetary policy, or intervention in the dollar by the Federal Reserve or Treasury, which could lead to currency wars [3]