赞迪认为，一种危险的转变正在发生，这导致许多资产面临大幅抛售的风险，这可能对实体经济和华尔 街都构成威胁。 今年以来，美国股市波动不定，投资者担忧的因素涵盖关税、人工智能等方方面面，而且穆迪分析首席 经济学家马克•赞迪认为，情况可能很快会变得更糟。 赞迪的观点通常更侧重于整体经济而非股市。 然而，他表示，近期发生的事件迫使他发出警告：如果某些情况持续下去，大事不妙啊！"有时候我觉 得市场反应过度，与经济脱节越来越严重，"赞迪补充道："市场可能出现大幅波动，因果关系颠倒，资 产价格下跌会威胁到本已脆弱的经济。现在就是这种情况。" 他在社交媒体平台X上发帖写道："在我看来，金融市场正变得越来越动荡，大规模抛售的种种因素正 在逐渐形成。股票和公司债券面临的威胁最大，而且即便加密货币、黄金和白银近期有所回调，仍然面 临风险。" ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

据 Tech in Asia 报道，2025 年全球加密货币持有者数量同比增长 12.4%，从 6.59 亿增至 7.41 亿，主要 受美国机构采用增加及亲加密政策推动，包括比特币战略储备建立。比特币持有者增长 8.3% 至 3.65 亿，占全球持有总数的近一半；以太坊持有者增长 22.6% 至 1.75 亿，占比约 24%。 （来源：吴说） ...

2月23日，比特币直线下跌，跌破65000美元关口，最低报64232.8美元/枚。 加密货币市场整体呈现下跌 态势，多只产品跌超5%。Coinglass数据显示，最近24小时内，加密货币市场超13万人被爆仓，爆仓总 金额为4.63亿美元。其中，多单爆仓金额为4.3亿美元，空单爆仓金额为3047.9万美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Position management is crucial in trading as it determines the amount of capital to be invested in each trade, impacting both potential profits and the level of risk involved [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Position Management - Successful traders prioritize long-term stable returns over short-term excessive profits, with effective position management being the core to achieving this stability [4]. - Poor position management is a common reason for trader failures, often leading to significant losses that are hard to recover from [4][10]. - Understanding the mathematical principles of capital loss is essential, as many traders fail to grasp this, leading to complete capital depletion [5]. Group 2: Impact of Losses on Recovery - The difficulty of recovering from losses increases significantly; for example, a 10% loss requires an 11.1% gain to break even, while a 50% loss necessitates a 100% gain [7][8]. - If a trader risks only 1% of their account per trade, even after ten consecutive losses, the account would only experience a drawdown of less than 10% [8]. Group 3: Position Sizing Methods - Fixed Amount Method: This method involves risking a fixed dollar amount per trade, which can lead to inefficiencies as account size grows [11][13]. - Percentage Risk Method: This popular method involves risking a fixed percentage of the account balance per trade, allowing for proportional adjustments as the account size changes [15]. - Volatility-Based Position Management: This dynamic method adjusts position size based on market volatility, using indicators like Average True Range (ATR) [17]. Group 4: Position Management Strategies by Trading Style - Day Trading and Scalping: These strategies typically involve smaller positions with tight stop-losses to manage risk effectively in fast-moving markets [19][20]. - Swing Trading: Positions are held for several days to weeks, with size adjusted based on market volatility and chart patterns [21][22]. - Long-Term Investing: Requires careful consideration of diversification to mitigate risks associated with single asset exposure [23][24]. Group 5: Common Mistakes in Position Management - Ignoring Market Volatility: Failing to account for volatility can lead to severe losses; tools like ATR can help set appropriate position sizes [25]. - Emotional Decision-Making: Traders often let emotions dictate position sizes, leading to mistakes like revenge trading, which can exacerbate losses [26]. Conclusion - Effective position management is key to protecting capital and achieving long-term trading success, requiring discipline and adherence to calculated strategies [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Peter Schiff, known as the "Dr. Doom," predicts that gold prices will soar to $7,000, potentially replacing the US dollar as the new anchor asset due to increased gold purchases by central banks and the expanding US fiscal deficit [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Schiff believes that the surge in gold prices indicates that the US will face a multifaceted crisis far worse than that of 2008, stemming from a convergence of sovereign credit issues, US Treasury and dollar crises [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Schiff advises investors to continue increasing their holdings in gold and silver, while labeling cryptocurrencies as Ponzi schemes [1]

Group 1: Core Views - Peter Schiff predicts that gold prices will surge to $7,000, potentially replacing the US dollar as the new anchor asset, driven by central banks increasing gold reserves and the expanding US fiscal deficit [1][4][11] - Schiff warns of a composite crisis in the US that could exceed the severity of the 2008 financial crisis, stemming from a convergence of sovereign credit, US debt, and dollar crises [1][12][15] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Central banks globally are increasingly replacing dollar assets with gold, which is a primary driver of the current gold price increase [4][10] - There is a notable recovery in private investment demand, particularly in the silver market, which has lagged behind gold [6][10] - Schiff believes that the current rise in gold prices is just the beginning, with a potential target of $6,000 being reasonable, and even $7,000 being achievable given past price increases [8][10] Group 3: Economic Crisis Predictions - Schiff indicates that the upcoming crisis will be characterized by a combination of dollar and sovereign debt crises, with a significant loss of confidence in the US government's ability to manage its fiscal responsibilities [12][15] - The current fiscal situation in the US is worse than in 2008, with a substantial increase in debt and ineffective policy responses exacerbating the economic landscape [15][16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Leadership - Schiff expresses skepticism about Kevin Walsh, the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting he will act as a puppet for former President Trump rather than an independent anti-inflation advocate [18][19][20] - The expectation is that Walsh will implement policies that align with Trump's interests, particularly in terms of monetary easing [19][20] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Critique - Schiff categorizes cryptocurrencies as a massive bubble and a decentralized Ponzi scheme, warning that the US government's leniency towards this sector could ultimately harm the economy [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative appeal of cryptocurrencies is gradually losing ground to gold as a store of value, with cryptocurrencies experiencing significant declines while precious metals are on the rise [2][9]. Market Trends - In 2025, both Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded negative returns, and the broader cryptocurrency market saw a market cap evaporation of approximately $1.3 trillion in the fourth quarter [2][9]. - Despite the new year, cryptocurrencies continued to weaken in January, with any brief rebounds being driven more by technical adjustments than by renewed confidence [2][9]. Investment Logic - Both cryptocurrencies and precious metals are viewed as hedges against currency devaluation, excessive fiscal expansion, and financial system vulnerabilities, indicating a deeper value reassessment when funds flow towards one and away from the other [2][9]. Global Liquidity Changes - In the U.S., years of quantitative tightening have reduced the excess capital that previously supported speculative enthusiasm, while a new capital demand has emerged from large cloud service and software companies, which are now consuming capital to build AI infrastructure [2][9]. Regional Differences - In Asia, particularly China, the money supply growth significantly outpaces nominal GDP growth, and the prohibition of cryptocurrency trading and mining has redirected domestic liquidity towards tangible value storage, benefiting precious metals [10][11]. Market Sentiment and Innovation - The initial promise of cryptocurrencies to redefine "money" and create a parallel financial system has largely gone unfulfilled, as they remain costly and inefficient as payment methods, with limited real-world applications [10][11]. - The center of innovation has shifted towards artificial intelligence, electrification, and infrastructure investment, leading to increased competition for investor attention [11][12]. Vulnerabilities of Cryptocurrencies - Unlike stocks, bonds, or physical assets, cryptocurrencies do not generate cash flow, lack legal recourse, and have no institutional backing, making their value heavily reliant on collective belief [11][12]. - Recent market performance indicates that in times of geopolitical tension and fiscal uncertainty, investors are favoring gold over cryptocurrencies, which are perceived more as speculative assets with diminishing narrative momentum [12]. Emerging Risks - Quantum computing poses a potential threat to the security of mainstream blockchain technologies, introducing uncertainty into the cryptocurrency market [5][12]. - Political dynamics have also contributed to volatility, with past political support for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. leading to price surges that have since retraced, highlighting the transient nature of such support [12]. Market Evolution - The cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase characterized by tightening liquidity, shifting attention, and the introduction of new risks, leading to a more discerning allocation of funds [6][12].

Market Closure Schedule - In 2026, the US stock market will be closed for 10 days and will have 2 early closures [2][10] - The regular trading hours for the US stock market are from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, Monday to Friday [2][10] - Major holidays when the NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed in 2026 include New Year's Day, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Presidents' Day, Good Friday, Memorial Day, Juneteenth, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [3][11] Early Closure Dates - In 2026, the stock market will close early at 1 PM on two occasions [2][12] - In 2027, the stock market will also close early at 1 PM on November 26, the day after Thanksgiving [4][12] Bond Market Schedule - The bond market's regular trading hours are from 8 AM to 5 PM Eastern Time, Monday to Friday [5][13] - The bond market will also close on the same 10 stock market holidays and will have additional closures on Indigenous Peoples' Day and Veterans Day [5][13] Special Considerations - If a holiday falls on a weekend, the stock market will close on the preceding Friday or the following Monday, depending on the day of the week [4][12] - The stock market will not close for New Year's Day if it falls on a Saturday, and the previous Friday will remain open [4][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the prices of nickel and tin in the night session, with nickel dropping over 4% and tin falling nearly 5% in early trading today [1] - The overnight performance of U.S. stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies showed a substantial decline, raising concerns about increasing liquidity risks that have spread to the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The basic metals sector is experiencing widespread losses, with all major metals showing negative performance [1]