Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of technical corrections, reduced geopolitical risks, and a stronger US dollar, with expectations of stabilization in the near term and a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact [1][5][7]. Group 1: Reasons for Decline - Technical correction occurred after gold prices surged over 50% this year, leading to record speculative long positions and triggering programmatic sell-offs due to overbought conditions [1]. - The inability of gold prices to sustain above $4,300 resulted in concentrated profit-taking by bulls, exacerbating the decline [2]. - Diminished risk aversion due to progress in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and improved US-China trade relations has led to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium [3]. - Funds have shifted from gold to riskier assets such as equities [4]. - The US dollar index has reached a two-month high, and the Federal Reserve's cautious signals regarding interest rate cuts have diminished gold's appeal [5]. - A seasonal decline in physical gold demand has been noted following the end of the wedding season in India [6]. Group 2: Price Decline Forecast - In the short term (1-3 weeks), if gold stabilizes between $4,000 and $4,080 per ounce, the sharp decline phase is expected to end, entering a period of consolidation [7]. - Over the next 1-3 months, if prices fall below $3,950, a potential drop to the $3,800-$3,900 range may occur, contingent on worsening geopolitical risks or negative economic data [7]. - The long-term trend remains bullish, supported by central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and an ongoing cycle of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a target of $5,000 by 2026 [7]. Group 3: Investor Strategies - Short-term traders are advised to reduce positions to maintain a margin safety line of at least twice the required amount, with stop-loss measures if prices fall below $3,950 and partial profit-taking if prices rebound to $4,160-$4,250 [8]. - Long-term investors should consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs (with fees below 0.5%) or bank gold storage, maintaining a position of no more than 10% of liquid assets, while ignoring short-term fluctuations [8]. - For those with immediate consumption needs, it is recommended to prioritize bank gold bars and consider purchasing domestic gold jewelry if prices fall below 1,100 CNY per gram [8]. - Investors holding positions should maintain a wait-and-see approach if prices do not breach $3,950, with partial reductions if prices rebound to $4,280 [8]. Group 4: Key Observation Points - October 24: Release of US CPI data, which could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance if inflation exceeds expectations, potentially extending the adjustment period [7]. - December: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, where an increase in rate cut expectations could trigger a rebound in gold prices [7]. - Geopolitical risks, including developments in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and changes in the Middle East situation, may reshape demand for safe-haven assets [7].