Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to decline, with London spot gold reaching a low of $3963.5 per ounce, the lowest since October 10, and currently quoted at $3971.9 per ounce [1] Group 1: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic brand gold jewelry prices have also seen a significant decline, with some brands experiencing a drop of over 20 yuan per gram in a single day. Specific price adjustments include: - Lao Miao Gold at 1192 yuan per gram, down 28 yuan - Chow Sang Sang at 1199 yuan per gram, down 24 yuan - Chow Tai Fook at 1198 yuan per gram, down 25 yuan - Lao Feng Xiang at 1202 yuan per gram, down 18 yuan [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - The current decrease in gold prices is attributed to a reduction in risk aversion and the market's gradual digestion of expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to increased volatility in the precious metals market. Gold prices previously peaked at around $4380 per ounce before entering a technical correction, indicating an overbought market. The main drivers for the recent price increase included concerns over currency value and expectations of a looser Federal Reserve policy, attracting short-term capital inflows and pushing prices into the overbought territory. Despite this, gold prices have risen over 50% year-to-date due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices have broken through key support levels, with the next focus being the psychological level of $4000 per ounce. Recent holding data indicates a significant reduction in long positions, reflecting that some capital is exiting the market. In the absence of new risk events or clear policy signals, gold prices are expected to enter a phase of range-bound fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices has caused significant distress among investors, highlighting the volatility of the gold market despite its long-term upward trend over the past 23 years [1][10]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking, a decrease in risk aversion, a strengthening dollar, and easing geopolitical and trade tensions, as indicated by comments from political figures [3]. - The ongoing legislative efforts, such as the "Price Law Amendment Draft," aim to regulate price fluctuations, but the market remains largely free, leading to chaotic price movements [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are expressing frustration and confusion over the sudden price drop, with many feeling misled by previous bullish sentiments surrounding gold [5][8]. - The decline has also impacted the broader precious metals market, with platinum and silver experiencing significant price drops [6]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that gold prices have not consistently risen, with periods of stagnation and decline, reminding investors of the inherent risks in the gold market [12]. Investment Strategy - Experts advise against blindly following market trends and suggest diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with gold price fluctuations [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of technical corrections, reduced geopolitical risks, and a stronger US dollar, with expectations of stabilization in the near term and a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact [1][5][7]. Group 1: Reasons for Decline - Technical correction occurred after gold prices surged over 50% this year, leading to record speculative long positions and triggering programmatic sell-offs due to overbought conditions [1]. - The inability of gold prices to sustain above $4,300 resulted in concentrated profit-taking by bulls, exacerbating the decline [2]. - Diminished risk aversion due to progress in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and improved US-China trade relations has led to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium [3]. - Funds have shifted from gold to riskier assets such as equities [4]. - The US dollar index has reached a two-month high, and the Federal Reserve's cautious signals regarding interest rate cuts have diminished gold's appeal [5]. - A seasonal decline in physical gold demand has been noted following the end of the wedding season in India [6]. Group 2: Price Decline Forecast - In the short term (1-3 weeks), if gold stabilizes between $4,000 and $4,080 per ounce, the sharp decline phase is expected to end, entering a period of consolidation [7]. - Over the next 1-3 months, if prices fall below $3,950, a potential drop to the $3,800-$3,900 range may occur, contingent on worsening geopolitical risks or negative economic data [7]. - The long-term trend remains bullish, supported by central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and an ongoing cycle of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a target of $5,000 by 2026 [7]. Group 3: Investor Strategies - Short-term traders are advised to reduce positions to maintain a margin safety line of at least twice the required amount, with stop-loss measures if prices fall below $3,950 and partial profit-taking if prices rebound to $4,160-$4,250 [8]. - Long-term investors should consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs (with fees below 0.5%) or bank gold storage, maintaining a position of no more than 10% of liquid assets, while ignoring short-term fluctuations [8]. - For those with immediate consumption needs, it is recommended to prioritize bank gold bars and consider purchasing domestic gold jewelry if prices fall below 1,100 CNY per gram [8]. - Investors holding positions should maintain a wait-and-see approach if prices do not breach $3,950, with partial reductions if prices rebound to $4,280 [8]. Group 4: Key Observation Points - October 24: Release of US CPI data, which could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance if inflation exceeds expectations, potentially extending the adjustment period [7]. - December: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, where an increase in rate cut expectations could trigger a rebound in gold prices [7]. - Geopolitical risks, including developments in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and changes in the Middle East situation, may reshape demand for safe-haven assets [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emotional impact of fluctuating gold prices on ordinary people's lives, illustrating how investments perceived as stable can lead to unexpected losses [1][4][10] - It emphasizes the struggle of individuals trying to secure their financial future amidst economic uncertainties, showcasing the psychological toll of market volatility [7][8][12] Group 1: Emotional Response to Market Changes - The sudden drop in gold prices caused significant distress for individuals who had invested in gold jewelry, reflecting a broader anxiety about financial security [1][4] - Personal anecdotes reveal how investments in gold, once seen as a safe haven, can lead to feelings of betrayal when market conditions change drastically [7][10] Group 2: Financial Security and Investment Choices - The narrative illustrates the limited options available to ordinary people for preserving wealth, highlighting the challenges of saving in banks or investing in real estate [7][8] - The article suggests that despite the volatility of gold prices, the true value lies in personal resilience and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant decline due to a decrease in risk aversion, with gold prices dropping sharply [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 22, spot gold prices fell over 2%, reaching a low of $4002 per ounce before recovering slightly to $4095 per ounce, marking a 0.68% decline [1] - On October 21, spot gold closed at $4130.41 per ounce, reflecting a 5.18% drop, the largest single-day decline in five years [3] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 4.94%, closing at $4144.10 per ounce [3] - Spot silver saw a significant drop of 8.7%, reaching $47.89 per ounce, the worst single-day performance since February 2021 [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - Domestic gold jewelry prices were significantly reduced on October 22, with major brands like Lao Miao and Zhou Sheng Sheng lowering their prices by 83 yuan and 39 yuan per gram, respectively [3] - The gold mining sector experienced widespread declines, with companies like Zhaojin Gold hitting their daily limit down, and others like Western Gold and Hunan Gold also seeing substantial losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, indicating potential buying interest may limit further declines [4] - According to CITIC Futures, the current market may be entering a phase of adjustment after nearly two months of rising prices, with future focus on U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical changes [4] - The precious metals market is viewed as being in a bull market, with the decline of dollar credit being a core factor supporting long-term strategic value in gold and silver [4] Group 4: ETF Trends - The World Gold Council reported that in September 2025, global physical gold ETFs recorded the largest monthly inflow ever, contributing to a record total inflow of $26 billion in the third quarter [5] - As of the end of the third quarter, total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs reached a historic high of $472 billion, with total holdings increasing by 6% to 3838 tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices from a historical high of $4381 to $4182, with a single-day drop of $300, is attributed to a combination of technical corrections, macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and capital flows [2] Group 1: Technical Factors - The gold price had risen for nine consecutive weeks prior to the drop, with an annual increase exceeding 57%, indicating an overbought condition. Key technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggested a strong need for technical correction [3] - Following the peak at $4381, many investors who entered at lower levels opted to sell to lock in profits, which directly triggered the price plunge [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - Geopolitical tensions and trade issues have eased, as European leaders called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reducing the market's expectations of geopolitical risks. Additionally, signals of a temporary easing in global trade tensions, such as President Trump's remarks on tariffs against China, have diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven [4] - Expectations of a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown may lead to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds that had previously flowed into gold due to political uncertainties [5] Group 3: Currency and Asset Competition - The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar has made gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby suppressing demand [6] - If market risk aversion continues to decline, some funds may shift from gold to other assets, such as equities, putting additional pressure on gold prices [7] Group 4: Market Structure and Data Expectations - There is a divergence in institutional views, with some major institutions warning of risks. For instance, Bridgewater's analysts noted that demand for gold at prices above $4000 per ounce heavily relies on continued purchases by Western individual investors. A reduction in this demand could pressure gold prices [8] - The market is cautious ahead of key economic data releases on October 24, including the U.S. September CPI and non-farm payrolls, which are critical for Federal Reserve policy decisions. Until these data are clear, market sentiment is likely to remain cautious, with some investors choosing to stay on the sidelines [8] Group 5: Market Outlook and Key Monitoring Points - Following the significant correction, market sentiment towards gold reflects a mix of short-term caution and long-term optimism [9] - The core logic supporting long-term gold price increases remains intact, including global de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, concerns over U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits, and expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts [10] - Key economic data, particularly the CPI on October 24, will be closely monitored. A moderate inflation reading could strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting gold prices, while stronger-than-expected data may exert downward pressure [11] - Important support levels to watch include $4180-$4150, $4130, and $4100 per ounce, as stability around these levels will be crucial for assessing market strength [11]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant decline after reaching new highs, with various factors contributing to this pullback [5][6][7] Price Movements - As of October 21, the London gold price was reported at $4270.12 per ounce, down 1.96% from the previous day, with a daily high of $4375.49 and a low of $4244.085 [1][2] - COMEX gold futures also saw a decline, trading at $4287.9 per ounce, down 1.64%, with a high of $4393.6 and a low of $4257.7 [3][4] Reasons for the Pullback - A temporary decrease in risk aversion due to improved expectations regarding international trade and signals from the Trump administration about easing tariffs contributed to the decline in gold prices [5] - The recent significant rise in gold prices placed it in an overbought condition, leading some speculative investors to take profits, increasing short-term selling pressure [5] - The Federal Reserve's silence ahead of the interest rate decision limited supportive comments for gold buying, cooling market sentiment [5] - A rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields increased the holding costs of gold, attracting some funds back to fixed-income assets [5] Future Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain in a state of fluctuation and adjustment, while long-term factors such as strong central bank gold purchases and ongoing inflows into ETFs are likely to support continued price increases [6] - The long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact, with potential pullbacks seen as buying opportunities, although investors should be cautious of market sentiment and geopolitical risks [7]

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].