Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold remains positive, particularly during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which typically benefits non-yielding metals [2] Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 19, international gold is trading around $3,632, with a recent price of $3,646.26 per ounce, reflecting a 0.05% increase [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3,650.98 and a low of $3,632.02 during the trading session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - In August, Swiss gold exports to China surged by 254%, highlighting strong demand [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut, reinforcing the rationale for further easing in upcoming meetings [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure in response to a weakening labor market, but emphasized that the Fed is not in a hurry to begin easing [2][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Recent fluctuations in gold prices show a pattern of technical correction after reaching historical highs, with expectations of a continued long-term bullish trend [2] - The daily moving averages indicate a maintained bullish trend, despite short-term corrections [4] - Hourly and four-hour indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with short-term bearish signals but support at key moving averages [4]

Central Banks' Gold Purchasing Trends - Central banks are accumulating gold at a record pace, with estimates suggesting they are hoarding approximately 80 tons of gold monthly, valued at around $8.5 billion at current prices [1] - The World Gold Council reports that central banks and sovereign wealth funds purchase a total of 1,000 tons of gold annually, accounting for at least a quarter of the yearly gold production [1] - A survey by HSBC indicated that over one-third of central banks plan to increase their gold purchases by 2025, with none intending to sell [1] Geopolitical Influences - The current wave of gold purchases began before the U.S.-China trade war and reflects growing concerns among countries about excessive dollar holdings [4] - The surge in gold prices in recent years has further enhanced its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical tensions [4] - Following the freezing of Russian foreign reserves due to the Ukraine conflict, the pace of central bank gold purchases has doubled [4] Secrecy in Purchases - Many central bank gold purchases remain undisclosed, with only about one-third of the reported purchases being publicly available [7] - The trend of secretive gold buying has been noted since the 1990s, with significant purchases often going unreported [6][10] - The average global gold reserve ratio for central banks is around 20%, which is seen as a reasonable medium-term target for emerging market central banks [11] Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The influx of gold into Switzerland has surged since 2022, with over 1,200 tons of gold reportedly entering the country, indicating a shift in reserve management strategies [14] - Concerns over the weaponization of the dollar and potential threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve have prompted central banks to diversify their reserves away from the dollar [14][15] - If just 0.5% of foreign-held U.S. assets were redirected to gold, prices could potentially rise to $6,000 per ounce by 2029, according to JPMorgan [15]