Group 1 - The latest employment data from the US indicates a weakening labor market, leading to a strong increase in gold prices as investors increase dovish bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected easing cycle in September [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that the number of continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - According to Prime Market Terminal data, traders anticipate a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] Group 2 - On August 1, gold prices surged by 2%, rising from approximately $3,281 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, and have since fluctuated between $3,350 and $3,397 per ounce, with buyers struggling to break through the $3,400 per ounce level [2] - To maintain a bullish outlook, buyers need to rise above $3,400 per ounce, which would clear the path for gold to challenge the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $3,500 per ounce. Conversely, if gold prices fall below the convergence area of the 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages (around $3,350 to $3,346 per ounce), a decline towards the 100-day moving average of $3,275 per ounce is expected [3] Group 3 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $3,392, $3,407, and $3,447, while support levels are at $3,373, $3,352, and $3,334. The momentum is strong, with a reference value greater than 67.1% [4]

高盛资产管理公司的Ashish Shah：未来两个月的数据将至关重要。 如果关税引发的通胀比预期温和，或者劳动力市场出现走弱迹象，我们认为美联储将在秋季恢复宽松周 期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has upgraded its rating on emerging market local currency sovereign bonds to "overweight," betting on declining interest rates and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Analysts Dirk Willer and Adam Pickett noted early signs of tariff transmission effects in the U.S. June inflation data, but a slowdown in service prices may keep inflation under control [1] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to restart a loosening cycle in the second half of 2025 is highlighted, which typically benefits emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in gold prices is primarily driven by significant fluctuations in Asian currencies, which aligns with risk-averse behavior in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta notes that gold has recovered its losses from the previous week, although the exact catalysts remain unclear [1] - The volatility in Asian currencies provides a plausible explanation for the timing of gold's rebound and fits the logic of seeking safe-haven assets [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - As authorities begin to intervene in the currency markets, the demand for safe-haven assets may gradually decrease [1] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision from the Federal Reserve poses a risk for gold bulls, as the market has aggressively bet on a dovish shift [1] - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may issue hawkish signals to correct market expectations, which could impact gold prices [1] Group 3: Long-term vs Short-term Trends - In the medium to long term, the upward trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of continued low real yields during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1] - Short-term risks are present; positive developments in trade tensions or a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could lead to a market re-evaluation and further pullback in gold prices [1]