Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices is attributed to improved market risk appetite and easing global trade tensions, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 27, spot gold is trading below $4083, currently at $4070.17 per ounce, down 0.99% from previous levels, with a high of $4108.19 and a low of $4053.29 [1] - Last week, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.45%, closing at $4126.90 per ounce [2] - The gold market experienced profit-taking after reaching historical highs, with a peak of $4382.3 before a significant pullback [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in air traffic control, with over 5300 flights delayed on October 25 alone, exacerbating the situation due to staff shortages [2] - Economic forecasts indicate that if the government shutdown continues, the U.S. GDP could lose approximately $15 billion weekly [3] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September, slightly below expectations, with an annual inflation rate of 3.0% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices is primarily due to reduced safe-haven demand stemming from improved U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical risk alleviation [3] - While short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential for a Federal Reserve easing cycle and lingering risks [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index down by 0.02%, the Hang Seng Technology Index and CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index both down by 0.7%, the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index down by 1.6%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index down by 5.1% [1] - In September, the E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) attracted significant capital inflows, with net inflows of 4.2 billion and 2.7 billion respectively [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of 50 stocks from the "new economy" sector with the largest market capitalization. This index saw a decline of 1.6% today, with a rolling P/E ratio of 26.8 times and a valuation percentile of 65.4% since its inception in 2018 [2] - The E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, composed of 30 major stocks related to technology. This index decreased by 0.7%, with a rolling P/E ratio of 24.6 times and a valuation percentile of 36.7% since its launch in 2020 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index, which includes 50 liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, fell by 5.1%, with a rolling P/E ratio of 32.0 times and a valuation percentile of 49.9% since 2017 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, which consists of 30 leading internet companies. This index dropped by 1.0%, with a rolling P/E ratio of 30.5 times [2] Investment Sentiment - Huatai Securities indicated that with the onset of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and advancements in the internet and technology sectors, market sentiment in Hong Kong may have further room for improvement, suggesting that the technology sector remains a potential area for investment [1]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with the main contract for Shanghai gold leading the gains [1] - As of the market close at 15:00, Shanghai gold, international copper, and Shanghai copper rose over 4%, while soybean oil, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai silver increased over 2% [1] - Factors supporting the long-term upward trend of gold include the reconstruction of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has increased market uncertainty regarding economic direction and Federal Reserve policy, leading to heightened investment risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a downward trend in real interest rates [2] - Given the support from macroeconomic slowdown, monetary policy easing, and geopolitical factors, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the long term [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's entry into a period of monetary easing is generally beneficial for global financial assets, leading to increased liquidity and price support in the market [1] - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience enhanced long-term liquidity as a result of this easing [1] - Other markets, such as A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are also anticipated to be positively influenced by the influx of capital [1] - A more accommodative liquidity environment is encouraging investors worldwide to allocate more funds into investment markets [1]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $23.3 to close at $2586.9 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.91% [1] - The trade tensions between China and the United States may ease, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [1] - The new Canada-Mexico Action Plan aims to expand bilateral trade in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture, as announced by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [1] Group 2 - Swiss customs data revealed that gold exports to the United States nearly halted in August, with a decline of over 99% compared to July, amounting to only 0.3 tons [1] - The cautious restart of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle has led to a partial weakening of gold price momentum, although analysts believe gold prices remain strongly supported [1] - The December silver futures price decreased by $0.139, closing at $29.083 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.48% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations but are expected to trend upwards in the long term due to various economic factors and geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices rose slightly to around $3654.18 per ounce, breaking a two-day decline, after reaching a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce earlier in the week [1]. - The recent strong labor market data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on precious metal prices [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut, indicating a potential for continued accommodative policy [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, gold is expected to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment, as it is a non-yielding asset [4]. - A significant increase of 254% in gold exports from Switzerland to China indicates strong demand for gold [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Israel's military actions, may further increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded above $3650, maintaining an upward trend, with a critical support level at $3600 [6]. - The next resistance levels are identified at $3674 and the historical high of $3707, with potential targets of $3750 and $3800 if these levels are breached [6]. - A drop below the September 11 low of $3613 could lead to a test of the $3600 support level [6].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold remains positive, particularly during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which typically benefits non-yielding metals [2] Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 19, international gold is trading around $3,632, with a recent price of $3,646.26 per ounce, reflecting a 0.05% increase [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3,650.98 and a low of $3,632.02 during the trading session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - In August, Swiss gold exports to China surged by 254%, highlighting strong demand [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut, reinforcing the rationale for further easing in upcoming meetings [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure in response to a weakening labor market, but emphasized that the Fed is not in a hurry to begin easing [2][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Recent fluctuations in gold prices show a pattern of technical correction after reaching historical highs, with expectations of a continued long-term bullish trend [2] - The daily moving averages indicate a maintained bullish trend, despite short-term corrections [4] - Hourly and four-hour indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with short-term bearish signals but support at key moving averages [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Global inflation showed initial signs of rising in August. China's economic data in July still had resilience, but domestic monthly economic data faced pressure. The government emphasized measures to stabilize the real - estate market, expand consumption, and increase investment. China's August exports and imports had different trends, and September exports might improve due to a low base. The A - share market on September 9 was in an adjustment state. In the US, the manufacturing index contracted, and employment data was worse than expected. The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and there are concerns about its credibility crisis. In Japan, policy uncertainty increased, leading to a sell - off of long - term government bonds. For commodities, different sectors have different outlooks, and it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, global inflation began to rise. China's July exports increased year - on - year, supported by a low base and the "rush - to - export" effect. Financial data showed excessive money supply but weak financing and loan data. Investment data faced pressure. In August, China's exports grew by 4.4% year - on - year, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from July, mainly affected by a high base and tariffs. Exports to the US weakened, while those to emerging economies remained strong. Imports grew by 1.3% year - on - year, a 2.8 - percentage - point slowdown, dragged down by commodity imports. On September 9, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 3% in the afternoon. In the US, the August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, and employment data was worse than expected [2]. Fed Policy - Powell's speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 turned dovish, indicating a possible policy adjustment. The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle as August's employment data was disappointing. There is a growing credibility crisis at the Fed, with criticism from Trump and the US Treasury Secretary. Trump has announced potential candidates for the next Fed chair, and the nomination of Milan is to be voted on [3]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for some products. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are a good long - term investment opportunity as the Fed is about to restart the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. Key News - On September 9, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling. Gold, real - estate, and bank stocks performed well, while semiconductor and innovation - drug stocks declined. An explosion in Doha, Qatar, led to a short - term rise in international oil prices. The US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change was worse than expected. The Senate will vote on Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and the FOMC is expected to cut interest rates in September [7].

Group 1 - The latest employment data from the US indicates a weakening labor market, leading to a strong increase in gold prices as investors increase dovish bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected easing cycle in September [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that the number of continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - According to Prime Market Terminal data, traders anticipate a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] Group 2 - On August 1, gold prices surged by 2%, rising from approximately $3,281 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, and have since fluctuated between $3,350 and $3,397 per ounce, with buyers struggling to break through the $3,400 per ounce level [2] - To maintain a bullish outlook, buyers need to rise above $3,400 per ounce, which would clear the path for gold to challenge the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $3,500 per ounce. Conversely, if gold prices fall below the convergence area of the 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages (around $3,350 to $3,346 per ounce), a decline towards the 100-day moving average of $3,275 per ounce is expected [3] Group 3 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $3,392, $3,407, and $3,447, while support levels are at $3,373, $3,352, and $3,334. The momentum is strong, with a reference value greater than 67.1% [4]