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美元拐点
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美元拐点:全球资产再平衡与中国科技重估
Group 1 - The report highlights a turning point for the US dollar from strong to weak, indicating a potential global asset rebalancing and a systematic revaluation of Chinese technology assets during this weak dollar cycle [1][2][3] - The long wave economic downturn is characterized by global restructuring, evolving competitive landscapes, and asset price volatility, with the current strong dollar cycle facing a turning point [2][15][20] - The report suggests that the US economy's long-term concerns and increasing policy uncertainty are undermining the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, leading to a shift in global capital allocation [24][20][29] Group 2 - In a weak dollar environment, Chinese technology assets are expected to benefit from the revaluation of RMB-denominated assets, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks positioned as core beneficiaries in the global asset rebalancing process [2][17][20] - The report anticipates that during the interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks will benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points, with scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises becoming key investment themes [2][20][21] - A-shares are projected to benefit from the RMB asset revaluation process, with expected recovery and valuation support, leading to a structural bull market in small-cap growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [2][20][21]