Group 1: Long-term Trends - The U.S. economic share has declined from 28.3% in 2000 to 23.6% in 2023, while the dollar index has increased, indicating a long-term divergence[12][16]. - The dollar index has maintained a fluctuation center around 103-104, despite the U.S. economic share dropping, which historically corresponds to a 27%-28% economic share[12][16]. - The increase in the dollar index post-2008 is attributed to a liquidity expansion and the relative weakness of the Eurozone and Japan[15][16]. Group 2: Short-term Dynamics - Since April 2023, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from approximately 4.2% to a peak of about 4.58%, while the dollar index fell from around 104 to 99, showing a negative correlation[27][29]. - In April 2023, foreign investors sold $589 billion in U.S. long-term securities, with $472 billion being U.S. Treasuries, indicating a significant outflow of capital[30][29]. - The net short positions in dollar index futures surged from 2,010 contracts at the end of March to 11,000 contracts by mid-June, reflecting a strong consensus against the dollar[36][43]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The consensus suggests that the dollar may not enter a prolonged downtrend in the next year, as U.S. nominal GDP growth is expected to remain competitive against the Eurozone and Japan[25][57]. - The current low concentration of net short positions indicates a higher risk of a dollar rebound, as historical data shows that extreme positioning often leads to reversals[43][57]. - The dollar's rapid decline may have reached its peak, and caution is advised regarding potential short-term rebounds due to extreme positioning in the market[57][57].