Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, strengthening market expectations for a September interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and supporting the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The Shanghai copper market has largely priced in previous negative factors, and as domestic terminal demand gradually emerges from the off-season, downstream inventory replenishment demand has been stimulated [4]. - After the US exemption of import tariffs on refined copper, global copper resources may shift to non-US markets in the second half of the year, leading to a recent continuous increase in inventories of LME copper and Shanghai copper [4]. - In July, the production of electrolytic copper reached a record high, and high production is expected to continue in August. Coupled with the rebound of import processing fees, supply pressure remains [4]. - Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile pattern, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors: the decline of the US dollar provides support, but the shift to a looser supply-demand balance and inventory accumulation limit the upside space [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, a position of 152,557 lots, and a trading volume of 50,116 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 70,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%, a position of 3,997 lots, and a trading volume of 2,534 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 9,777 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 14,623 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 449.75 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.89%, a position of 51,622 lots, and a trading volume of 24,634 lots [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 650 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 665 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.85% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 630 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.8% [10]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.84% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 50% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 85 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 100% [12]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 95 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 111.76% [12]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 78.95% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (spot/3 months) premium/discount is -88.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 23.12 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 35.23% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (3 months/15 months) premium/discount is -149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 6.43% [12]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest value of copper import profit and loss is 144.92 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 389.96 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of -159.14% [13]. - The latest value of copper concentrate TC is -38 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of -7.32% [13]. - The latest value of the copper-aluminum ratio is 3.8112, with a weekly increase of 0.03 and a weekly increase rate of 0.79% [13]. - The latest value of the refined-scrap copper price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 314.47 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 40.11% [13]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest value of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts (total) is 24,560 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,288 tons and a weekly increase rate of 15.46% [17]. - The latest value of international copper warehouse receipts (total) is 7,422 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,869 tons and a weekly increase rate of 377.91% [17]. - The latest value of Shanghai copper inventory is 86,361 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,428 tons and a weekly increase rate of 5.4% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper registered warehouse receipts is 144,800 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.05% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts is 11,050 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.67% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, with a weekly decrease of 150 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.1% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts is 124,862 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,269 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.03% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts is 141,942 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,239 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.6% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper inventory is 266,804 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,508 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.33% [19]. - The latest value of copper ore port inventory is 429,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.9% [19]. - The latest value of social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the cumulative production was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21]. - In June 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the cumulative production was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21]. Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 26.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.28 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.43 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 65.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.66 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.45%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.47 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.88%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.37 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 3.83 percentage points [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.560072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the cumulative import volume was 17.317529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -17% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -9% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, with no year-on-year change [26]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 479,902.059 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative import volume was 3,112,510.767 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2.6% [26].