Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, with SHFE copper closing at 103,920 CNY/ton and LME copper at 13,296 USD/ton, reflecting increases of 1.55% and 2.56% respectively [1][15]. - Supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising due to supply constraints and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 50.4% compared to February 12, 2026, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.0% [2][23]. - As of February 27, 2026, global inventory across major exchanges totaled 1.247 million tons, up 48.3% from February 13, 2026 [2][23]. Supply - China's electrolytic copper production in February 2026 was 1.1424 million tons, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 8.0% year-on-year [3][59]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 2,689 CNY/ton, down 410 CNY/ton from February 13, 2026 [2][53]. Demand - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 11.5 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 27.72% [3][70]. - Air conditioning production for March to May 2026 is projected to decrease by 6.1%, followed by increases of 2.9% and 4.9% in subsequent months [3][70]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 46% compared to February 13, 2026, with a total of 204,000 contracts [4][29]. - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the market sentiment eased from the Greenland event in the macro - market last week, copper prices rebounded slightly today. Due to fundamental disturbances and the recurrence of macro - level sentiment, copper prices rose steadily and slightly last week. Affected by the sharp decline of the US dollar today, copper prices gapped up, but the upward trend of Shanghai copper before the Spring Festival is expected to be suppressed due to the weakening of the demand side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - **Macro aspect**: US President Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on imported goods from 8 European countries starting February 1, 2026, and to 25% starting June 1, to pressure negotiations on Greenland's sovereignty. After he declared not to use force on Greenland, market tensions eased. With the strengthening of the yen, the US dollar declined continuously during the week, supporting non - ferrous metal prices [3]. - **Supply aspect**: On Thursday, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile stopped production due to a strike caused by the failure of collective bargaining between the largest union and the company. The mine's expected cathode copper production in 2025 was 29,000 - 32,000 tons. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable with a further downward trend. SMM estimated that China's electrolytic copper production in January would decrease by 14,500 tons month - on - month (a 1.23% decline) and increase by 156,300 tons year - on - year (a 14.78% increase). The start - up rate of scrap copper enterprises decreased, and the scrap copper market's supply and demand were affected [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Approaching the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises started their holidays, with low procurement willingness for raw materials. The performance of new - energy vehicles at the terminal was poor, while there was a slight increase in traditional industries such as refrigerators and air conditioners [3]. 3.2沪铜价格走势 (Shanghai Copper Price Trend) - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The weekly high was 102,000 yuan/ton, the low was 99,210 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.77%, and the range increase/decrease was + 0.57% [5]. 3.3沪铜现货行情 (Shanghai Copper Spot Market) - As of January 26, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 135 yuan/ton. Under the bearish sentiment of downstream enterprises, the spot was traded at a discount, and the sentiment is expected to remain unchanged in the short term [10]. 3.4伦铜价差结构 (LME Copper Spread Structure) - As of January 23, LME copper rose 0.43% during the week, closing at $12,980/ton, with a spot premium of - $59.5/ton [15]. 3.5铜精矿供给 (Copper Concentrate Supply) - In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% cumulative year - on - year increase. In January 2026, there were strikes and road blockades in some Chilean mines, which were later resolved [19]. 3.6废铜供给 (Scrap Copper Supply) - In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Affected by policy changes and tax inspections, the supply and demand of the scrap copper market were affected [24]. 3.7冶炼厂费用 (Smelter Fees) - As of January 23, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 5.18 cents/pound. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable with a downward trend. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [29]. 3.8精炼铜供给 (Refined Copper Supply) - In December 2025, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month (a 6.8% increase) and 7.54% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons (an 11.38% increase). SMM estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January 2026 would decrease by 14,500 tons month - on - month and increase by 156,300 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% decrease compared to December 2024 [33]. 3.9表观需求 (Apparent Demand) - As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [37]. 3.10下游消费 (Downstream Consumption) - Some copper rod enterprises have entered the holiday state, with a significant decline in the start - up rate. The copper foil market has no obvious fluctuations in transactions, with reduced new orders. Copper tube enterprises have increased low - price replenishment recently, and most small and medium - sized enterprises will start their holidays next week. The downstream demand for copper rods has begun to decline, and copper rod enterprises mainly maintain just - in - time inventory [41]. 3.11电网工程数据 (Power Grid Project Data) - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts (a 41.9% increase), wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts (a 22.4% increase), hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts (a 3% increase), and nuclear power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts (a 7.6% increase) [45]. 3.12房地产基建数据 (Real Estate and Infrastructure Data) - In December 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease; the sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [51]. 3.13汽车/新能源汽车产业数据 (Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data) - The Passenger Car Association predicted that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January 2026 would be about 1.8 million, a 20.4% month - on - month decrease and a flat - to - slightly - increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles were expected to reach 800,000, but the retail penetration rate dropped to 44.4%. In 2026, the vehicle purchase tax changed from exemption to half - collection, and there were subsidy policies for vehicle replacement [57]. 3.14全球各主要交易所铜库存 (Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges) - As of January 23, LME copper inventory increased by 28,125 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 3.31% increase), and was 33.72% lower year - on - year. COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 tons, a 3.63% week - on - week increase and 473.67% higher year - on - year. On January 22, the combined copper spot inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 120,600 tons, still increasing. As of January 23, Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 146,800 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase, and cathode copper inventory was 225,900 tons, a 5.82% week - on - week increase [62][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [1] - The report highlights that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that supply constraints and improving demand will lead to further increases in copper prices [4] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, global inventory across the three major exchanges reached 900,000 tons, up 7.7% from January 9 [2] Supply - The TC spot price reached a historical low of -46.6 USD/ton [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,010 CNY/ton, indicating tighter scrap supply [2][55] Demand - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.99% [3] - The report notes that cable production accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] - Air conditioning production is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 11% in January 2026, followed by declines of 11.4% and 2.4% in February and March, respectively [3][95] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 24% week-on-week, with a total of 226,000 contracts as of January 16, 2026 [4] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 7.6% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The logic supporting copper price increases has not significantly changed, and after the adjustment, there is still potential for a rebound. The first quarter is typically a slow season, and without new drivers, prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival. Post-holiday, with resumption of work and tight spot supply, copper prices may rise again. The short-term price range is expected to be 94,000 to 120,000 CNY/ton for Shanghai copper and 12,000 to 15,000 USD/ton for London copper. The strategy remains to buy on dips [3][17][26]. Focus Point 1: US-LME Price Spread - The recent convergence of the US-LME price spread is primarily due to delayed or canceled expectations regarding US copper tariffs, influenced by the postponement of timber tariff increases and the upcoming results of the silver 232 investigation, which may exempt silver tariffs and similarly affect copper tariffs. Additionally, US copper imports concentrated at the end of December, with current COMEX inventories reaching 500,000 tons. Future tariff expectations may still fluctuate [6][20]. Focus Point 2: Ongoing Supply Disruptions - Recent disruptions at mining sites have intensified expectations of tight raw material supply. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile experienced a strike in early January, halting production of approximately 74,000 tons, with a potential monthly impact of 6,000 tons if the strike continues. Furthermore, the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has delayed its second phase due to political changes, affecting the signing of mining contracts, with the timeline for production now uncertain. This mine was initially expected to contribute an additional 90,000 tons this year [8][22][24]. Focus Point 3: High Prices Suppressing Downstream Consumption - High copper prices are significantly suppressing consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping from an average of 64% in December to 48%, resulting in a weekly sample production decrease of nearly 20,000 tons. Domestic social inventories accumulated nearly 80,000 tons in December, with an additional 54,000 tons accumulated in January so far, as some downstream sectors prepare to enter the Spring Festival holiday early, leading to weak consumption. This weakness in demand is limiting the upward price momentum, and downstream sectors require time to accept current prices [10][11][25]. Summary of Macro and Supply-Demand Dynamics - On the macro level, recent US economic data shows mixed PMI results, with manufacturing weakening and services slightly strengthening. Non-farm employment numbers have decreased, but the unemployment rate and wage growth have exceeded expectations, indicating a continued soft landing for the US economy. The backdrop of loose liquidity remains unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, global copper concentrate supply-demand tightness persists, with ongoing mining supply disruptions. The expected surplus of refined copper is narrowing, but high copper prices are significantly suppressing downstream consumption, leading to unexpected inventory accumulation domestically. Structurally, the convergence of the COMEX-LME premium is influenced by tariff expectations, with ongoing trade flows of refined copper from non-US regions to the US. If the US-LME price spread expands again, structural shortages may continue to support copper prices [12][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but supply-demand tightness in 2026 is expected to support upward price movement [1] - The report highlights a significant drop in the operating rate of cable enterprises, reaching a six-year low in December 2025, which may suppress demand despite rising copper prices [1][3] - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - China's copper smelting capacity growth may be limited due to regulatory measures [1] - December 2025 saw a 7.5% year-on-year increase in China's electrolytic copper production, totaling 1.1781 million tons [3][64] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap [2][58] - **Demand**: - The operating rate of cable enterprises was reported at 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points week-on-week [3][76] - Air conditioning production is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating potential demand growth [3][92] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 23.4% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 7.4% [2][26] - As of December 31, 2025, global copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 789,000 tons, up 10.2% from the previous week [2][26] Futures Market Summary - The active copper contract on SHFE saw a 15.9% decrease in open interest, indicating reduced trading activity [4][34] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 3.5%, reflecting a bullish sentiment among traders [4][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies in the context of rising copper prices [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 94,080 RMB/ton, up 1.40% from December 5, while LME copper closed at 11,553 USD/ton, down 0.96% [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for continued upward movement in copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year. The TC spot price as of December 12, 2025, was -43.33 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from December 5, 2025 [3][60]. - **Demand**: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight decrease in operating rates to 66.31%, down 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 22% in December 2025, but improve by 14% in January 2026 [3][91]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.8%. As of December 12, 2025, COMEX copper inventory reached a historical high of 451,000 tons, up 3.2% from December 5, 2025 [2][26]. Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a significant decrease in open interest, down 18% to 189,000 lots as of December 12, 2025, which is at the 52nd percentile since 1995 [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also monitoring Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate remains at a low level of -$40 per ton. Disruptions such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia continue, and the global shortage of copper ore supports copper prices [4]. - The copper consumption in power, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased significantly, offsetting the weakness in traditional sectors, and the demand is relatively resilient [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is volatile, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost of purchasing copper. The non - farm payrolls in the US in September exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, intensifying concerns about liquidity [4]. - The LME copper inventory increased by 16.08% week - on - week to 158,000 tons, reflecting weak overseas demand and suppressing the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The game between supply and demand continues, with the contradiction between supply shortage and high inventory. In the short term, copper prices will remain in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the rhythm of terminal restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Open Interest | Weekly Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 87,430 | 2.07% | 218,257 | 28,039 | 94,508 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 87,377 | 2.04% | 546,511 | 29,036 | 194,048 | | International Copper | 78,770 | 3.21% | 1,289 | - 2,040 | 2,580 | | LME Copper 3 - month | 10,930 | 2.28% | 239,014 | - 38,282 | 10,519 | | COMEX Copper | 516.25 | 4.22% | 134,293 | 65,265 | 12,165 | [6] Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 87,400 | 1,585 | 1.85% | | Shanghai Wumaomao | Yuan/ton | 87,360 | 1,490 | 1.74% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 87,390 | 1,490 | 1.73% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 87,440 | 1,460 | 1.7% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 110 | 20 | 22.22% | | Shanghai Wumaomao Premium | Yuan/ton | 65 | 5 | 8.33% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 105 | 20 | 23.53% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 16.56 | 35.45 | - 187.67% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 166.25 | 48.57 | 41.27% | [11][12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 860.94 | - 370.97 | 75.71% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.15 | - 0.43 | 1.03% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 4.0517 | 0.0447 | 1.12% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | Yuan/ton | 3,543.83 | 868.94 | 32.49% | [13] Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 35,244 | - 14,546 | - 29.21% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 5,502 | - 700 | - 11.29% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | Tons | 97,930 | - 12,673 | - 11.46% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 151,100 | 2,650 | 1.79% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 6,075 | - 3,400 | - 35.88% | | LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 157,175 | - 750 | - 0.47% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 194,336 | 20,085 | 11.53% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 223,330 | 5,903 | 2.71% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 417,666 | 25,988 | 6.64% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | 10,000 tons | 59.6 | 6.6 | 12.45% | | Social Inventory | 10,000 tons | 41.82 | 0.43 | 1.04% | [18][21] Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 120.4 | 8.9 | 1,229.5 | 9.7 | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 200.4 | - 3.3 | 2,012.4 | 5.9 | [24] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 1,584 | 56.2 | - 9.03 | - 5.35 | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 819 | 24.11 | - 1.26 | - 1.69 | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 359 | 63.84 | - 2.4 | - 8.4 | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 228.65 | 50.13 | - 0.77 | 0.1 | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 278.3 | 52.57 | - 6.87 | - 15.63 | [26] Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 245.1487 | 6 | 2,511.8228 | 8 | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 55,239 | - 8 | 634,011 | - 15 | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 279,944 | - 22 | 2,817,921 | - 6 | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 196,607 | 7 | 1,895,530 | 2 | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 440,000 | - 13.5 | 4,460,000 | - 3.1 | [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillation trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed an oscillating market, ranging from around 85,450 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed an oscillating trend, with the contract price running around 10,660 - 10,848 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - The minutes of the Fed's October monetary policy meeting showed that due to the moderate economic expansion and the gradual cooling of the labor market without a sharp deterioration, Fed officials had obvious differences on whether to further cut interest rates in December. There were also differences in opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Some officials thought that without considering the impact of tariffs, the current inflation level was close to the Fed's target value, while more officials believed that the overall inflation level had been continuously higher than the target value and there were few signs that it could fall back to the 2% target level in a timely and sustainable manner [5][14][47]. - CME's "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 29.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 70.2%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 49.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 36.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 14.5% [5][15][47]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 85,870 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 85,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 86,490 yuan/ton, 86,460 yuan/ton, 86,600 yuan/ton, and 86,570 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - As of November 21, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained around a rise of 60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [18]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of November 20, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.82 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.37 US cents/pound. As of October 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [24]. - As of October 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [30]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of November 21, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,603 tons, an increase of 1,196 tons from the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 17,375 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6%. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 398,513 tons, an increase of 6,835 tons from the previous trading day [34]. - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 112,200 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 17,200 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 45,600 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [34].

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Core View - Sino-US economic and trade negotiation easing and expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline, and pay attention to support and pressure levels for different copper contracts [2][3]. Group 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and leading to mainly rigid - demand purchases, but considering the Fed's future interest rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction expectations, continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, and more maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in October, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the basis of Shanghai copper [9]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range, and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the continuous accumulation of overseas electrolytic copper inventory, but with an increase in the expected number of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper [10]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range; the spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range. This is because the inventory of COMEX copper is at a high level and still accumulating, and future South American electrolytic copper may still be transported to the US [12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [14]. - The closure of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared with last week, an increase in China's social inventory of electrolytic copper, and a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange [19]. - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. Both non - commercial long and short positions increased, as did commercial long and short positions [22]. Group 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared with last week. The large - scale wet ore spill accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the copper and gold production in 2026 by about 35% compared with pre - accident estimates, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in October. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative and decreased compared with last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume in the world (China) increased (decreased, decreased) compared with last week [27][29]. - The positive spread between refined and scrap copper in China may boost the economy of scrap copper. Due to restrictions on the export of high - quality scrap copper in Europe, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and a positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper, the production (import) of domestic scrap copper in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [30][32]. - The 1st smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China decreased month - on - month, and the rough - smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in October may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in October [33]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's scrap - produced anode plates decreased compared with last week, and the processing fees for anode plates also decreased [35][37]. - The production (import) of China's electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month. Although some new domestic projects are under construction, domestic production may decrease in October. Overseas, due to maintenance and project construction progress, the import volume may also decrease [38][40]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (increased) compared with last week. The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, leading to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate (production, import, export) of domestic copper product enterprises in October decreased (decreased, decreased, decreased) month - on - month [44][46]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month due to stable orders in the automotive wiring harness and expected release of construction and power grid orders [57][64]. - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may increase month - on - month because of stable orders in new energy and transformers, and a warming expectation in the home appliance demand, although high copper prices suppress new orders [61][64]. - The weekly processing fees for China's brass plate and strip decreased, and the capacity utilization rate (production) of copper plate and strip samples decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased (increased). However, the capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month due to good demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics despite weak demand in home appliances and photovoltaics [66][74]. - The processing fees for China's lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil remained flat (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month because of a significant increase in the demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil in the AI field, saturating the orders of many copper foil enterprises [68][74]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [76][83]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of brass rods in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [78][83].