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铜周报:铜价延续上涨趋势-20250817
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 00:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, strengthening market expectations for a September interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and supporting the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The Shanghai copper market has largely priced in previous negative factors, and as domestic terminal demand gradually emerges from the off-season, downstream inventory replenishment demand has been stimulated [4]. - After the US exemption of import tariffs on refined copper, global copper resources may shift to non-US markets in the second half of the year, leading to a recent continuous increase in inventories of LME copper and Shanghai copper [4]. - In July, the production of electrolytic copper reached a record high, and high production is expected to continue in August. Coupled with the rebound of import processing fees, supply pressure remains [4]. - Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile pattern, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors: the decline of the US dollar provides support, but the shift to a looser supply-demand balance and inventory accumulation limit the upside space [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, a position of 152,557 lots, and a trading volume of 50,116 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 70,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%, a position of 3,997 lots, and a trading volume of 2,534 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 9,777 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 14,623 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 449.75 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.89%, a position of 51,622 lots, and a trading volume of 24,634 lots [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 650 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 665 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.85% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 630 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.8% [10]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.84% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 50% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 85 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 100% [12]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 95 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 111.76% [12]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 78.95% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (spot/3 months) premium/discount is -88.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 23.12 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 35.23% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (3 months/15 months) premium/discount is -149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 6.43% [12]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest value of copper import profit and loss is 144.92 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 389.96 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of -159.14% [13]. - The latest value of copper concentrate TC is -38 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of -7.32% [13]. - The latest value of the copper-aluminum ratio is 3.8112, with a weekly increase of 0.03 and a weekly increase rate of 0.79% [13]. - The latest value of the refined-scrap copper price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 314.47 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 40.11% [13]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest value of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts (total) is 24,560 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,288 tons and a weekly increase rate of 15.46% [17]. - The latest value of international copper warehouse receipts (total) is 7,422 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,869 tons and a weekly increase rate of 377.91% [17]. - The latest value of Shanghai copper inventory is 86,361 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,428 tons and a weekly increase rate of 5.4% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper registered warehouse receipts is 144,800 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.05% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts is 11,050 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.67% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, with a weekly decrease of 150 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.1% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts is 124,862 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,269 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.03% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts is 141,942 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,239 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.6% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper inventory is 266,804 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,508 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.33% [19]. - The latest value of copper ore port inventory is 429,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.9% [19]. - The latest value of social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the cumulative production was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21]. - In June 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the cumulative production was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21]. Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 26.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.28 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.43 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 65.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.66 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.45%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.47 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.88%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.37 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 3.83 percentage points [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.560072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the cumulative import volume was 17.317529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -17% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -9% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, with no year-on-year change [26]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 479,902.059 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative import volume was 3,112,510.767 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2.6% [26].
冠通研究:盘面震荡偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 11:30
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].
【有色】国内港口铜精矿库存创近4年同期新低——铜行业周报(20250721-20250725)(王招华/方驭涛)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-28 08:42
Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations while awaiting the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 25, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,250 CNY/ton, up 1.07% from July 18, while LME copper closed at 9,796 USD/ton, up 0.02% [3] - Domestic copper prices are rising in line with the "anti-involution" sentiment in domestic commodities, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The cable operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline in Q3, indicating weak demand [3] - However, supply from mines and scrap copper remains tight, and with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are expected to rise [3] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 20% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 5% [4] - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 561,000 tons, down 23.2% from the previous week [4] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 449,000 tons as of July 21, 2025, up 5.7% [4] Group 4: Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 125 CNY/ton this week [5] - In March 2025, China's refined copper production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5] Group 5: Smelting and Exports - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The import volume of electrolytic copper in June increased by 18.7% month-on-month, while the export volume surged by 134.2% [7] Group 6: Demand Analysis - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 70.83%, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous week [8] - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in June, lower than the previously expected 11.5% [8] Group 7: Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 31.4% week-on-week, reaching 181,000 lots [9] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2.2% week-on-week, totaling 40,000 lots [9]
铜行业周报:6月中国消费商电解铜库存创近6年同期新低-20250713
EBSCN· 2025-07-13 12:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] - The report highlights that the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, which could disrupt global copper inventory flows [1][4] - Domestic copper inventory levels are at a near six-year low, indicating potential supply constraints [30] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [2] - As of July 11, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [2] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 403,000 tons as of July 7, 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase [2] Supply - The TC spot price remains low at -43 USD/ton, indicating challenging conditions for smelting profitability [3][59] - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but a 12.9% increase year-on-year [3][63] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has decreased by 836 RMB/ton, suggesting tighter scrap supply [54] Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a potential uptick in demand [3][73] - Domestic air conditioning production is projected to decline, with year-on-year reductions of 12.8% expected in September [92] - The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 13% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 18% [4][33] - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, reflecting a significant decrease [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4]
铜行业周报:6月电解铜产量环比下降0.3%、同比增长13%-20250706
EBSCN· 2025-07-06 12:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights a continued weakening in demand, particularly in the cable sector, with risks of further declines in production rates for air conditioning units [1][3]. - The report notes that the short-term risk of warehouse squeezing remains, suggesting that copper prices may continue to show strength before returning to a more volatile state [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Production**: In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but an increase of 12.9% year-on-year [3][65]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.81% as of July 3, 2025 [3][75]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.3%, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.1% [2][24]. Raw Material Insights - **Copper Concentrate**: Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 666,000 tons, up 6.8% week-on-week as of July 4, 2025 [2][49]. - **Scrap Copper**: The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 260 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][54]. Futures Market Overview - The active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 1.3% week-on-week, with a total position of 216,000 lots as of July 4, 2025 [4][33]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - **Western Mining**: Stock price at 17.10 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.67 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 10 [5]. - **Zijin Mining**: Stock price at 20.05 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.60 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Stock price at 8.54 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 0.62 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 14 [5]. - **Jincheng Mining**: Stock price at 45.42 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 3.61 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5].
铜行业周报:COMEX铜库存创2018年9月以来新高,LME铜库存创近12个月新低
EBSCN· 2025-06-09 01:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the improvement of macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.0% increase from May 30, while LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% [1]. - The report highlights that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may continue to suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are noted, alongside a weakening demand risk due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic market entering a low-demand season [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7.3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 10.7% [2]. - As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons as of June 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.4% [2]. Supply - The report notes that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton as of June 6, 2025, indicating a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week, but remains at a low level historically [3]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,388 RMB/ton as of June 6, 2025, reflecting an increase of 435 RMB/ton from May 30 [2][3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025 [3][4]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a 2% year-on-year increase in household air conditioner production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][4]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 18% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 6.7% [4]. - As of June 6, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 204,000 lots, reflecting a significant increase and indicating strong market interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand. It recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4][5].
铜行业周报:4月废铜进口量同比下降7%,8月空调排产同比增长2.7%-20250602
EBSCN· 2025-06-02 13:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve, leading to a potential rise in copper prices. As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 77,600 RMB/ton, down 0.2% from May 23, while LME copper closed at 9,497 USD/ton, also down 0.24% [1]. - Supply-side disruptions in copper mining are increasing, leading to overall tightness. Demand is expected to weaken as the stocking effect in response to tariffs diminishes and the domestic market enters a seasonal lull. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to remain volatile, with a gradual increase expected following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In April, copper scrap imports were 168,000 metric tons, up 7% month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year. Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 796,000 tons, up 2% week-on-week [2][49]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while air conditioning production in August is expected to grow by 2.7% year-on-year [3][77]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9%. As of May 29, 2025, SMM copper social inventory was 139,000 tons, down 0.9% [2][25]. Futures Market Summary - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 19% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7.3% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to rise in 2025. Recommended companies include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with Minmetals Resources as a company to watch [4][5].
铜行业周报(20250519-20250523):TC现货价续创新低,铜精矿现货延续紧张-20250525
EBSCN· 2025-05-25 12:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which continues to suppress copper price increases [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,790 RMB/ton, down 0.4% from May 16, while the LME copper closing price was 9,614 USD/ton, up 1.76% [1][17]. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory continues to rise, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking against tariffs and the seasonal downturn in demand [1]. - The operating rate of cable enterprises remains above 80%, with production of air conditioners expected to continue growing in June and July [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 780,000 tons, down 4.8% from the previous week [2][49]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.4% [2][25]. - Global inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, up 4.7% from the previous week [2]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price reached a new low of -44.30 USD/pound as of May 23, 2025, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16 [3][63]. - The electrolytic copper production in China for April 2025 was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and 14.3% year-on-year [68]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 11% week-on-week, with a total position of 152,000 lots as of May 23, 2025 [4][33]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position decreased by 2.2% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025, recommending specific companies for investment [4][5].
铜行业周报(20250428-20250502):国内电解铜社会库存降至2023年以来同期新低
EBSCN· 2025-05-06 01:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has dropped to a new low for the same period in 2023, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices as macroeconomic expectations improve [1]. - As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,220 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, while the LME copper closing price was 9,366 USD/ton, down 0.1% [1]. - The copper industry is currently experiencing a divergence between macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand tensions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory at a near five-year low providing price support [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 28.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.7% [2]. - As of April 30, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 836,000 tons, up 4.2% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 431,000 tons, the highest for the same period in nearly six years, down 4.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and up 14.3% year-on-year [3]. - The copper concentrate production in China for December 2024 was 152,000 tons, up 9.5% month-on-month and up 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,371 RMB/ton as of April 30, 2025, down 285 RMB/ton from the previous week [2]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate was 89.45%, down 1.78 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year in July 2025, indicating strong demand in the home appliance sector [3][97]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 54.4% in March 2025, up 14 percentage points month-on-month but down 8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - As of April 30, 2025, the active SHFE copper contract had a holding of 169,000 lots, up 1.5% week-on-week [4]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 19,000 lots, down 21.8% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].