铜价或以高位震荡趋势为主。沪铜套利机会有限。期权合约 建议观望为主。 研究报告 铜周报 12 月美联储降息或遇阻，沪铜或震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | 报告日期：2025 年 月 11 24 | 日星期一 | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 美联储 19 日公布的 10 月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于经济 温和扩张、劳动力市场逐步降温但未现急剧恶化，美联储官员对 12 月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧。围绕关税对通胀的影响，美 联储官员意见存在分歧。一些与会官员认为，不考虑关税带来的 影响，目前通胀水平已接近美联储的目标值。然而更多官员认为， 总体通胀水平已持续高于目 ...

有色金属周报-铜 1 中美经贸谈判缓和和铜矿供给预期偏紧支撑铜价 2025年10月27日 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 电解铜 | 供给端：国内外多个铜矿生产存在扰动，使中国铜精矿进口指数持续为负，引导国内铜精矿供需预期偏 | | --- | | 紧；废铜供给预期增加使国内粗铜或阳极板加工费初现升高，铜冶炼厂10月检修产能环比增加； | | 需求端：精铜制杆、铜板带产能开工率较上周下降，再生铜制杆、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜管和黄铜 | | 棒产能开工率较上周升高，高位铜价使下游刚需采购为主。 | | 库存端：进口窗口关闭或限制国内电解铜进口量，使中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜 | | 社会库存量较上周增加；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；COMEX铜库存量较上周增加。 | | 投资策略：美联储未来降息和停止缩表预期，中美经贸谈判达成初步方案，海外多个铜矿存生产扰动， | | 或使沪铜价格谨慎偏强，建议投资者逢价格回落布局多单为主，关注83000-86000附近支撑位及90000- | | 100000附 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - Trade conflicts are currently suppressing copper prices, but a rebound is expected as downstream demand recovers [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.5% [2]. - As of October 17, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 681,000 tons, up 3.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges reached 589,000 tons, a 4.9% increase from September 30 [2]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton this week [2]. - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - Global copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [2]. Smelting - The current TC (treatment charge) is -40.8 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [3]. - In August, electrolytic copper imports increased by 6% year-on-year, while exports rose by 19% [3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.4 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 61.91% as of October 16, 2025 [3]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to improve in the fourth quarter [3]. Futures - As of October 17, 2025, the active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 6.8% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots [4]. - The report notes that the current position is at the 64th percentile since 1995 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the recent trade conflicts have temporarily suppressed copper prices, but a recovery is expected as downstream demand rebounds in Q4 [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month to 1.121 million tons, while year-on-year it increased by 11.6% [3][68]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate fell by 6.9 percentage points to 58.53% [3][76]. The report notes that air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for October, November, and December respectively [3][96]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, 2025, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [2][24]. Price and Futures Summary - **Copper Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 85,910 RMB/ton, up 3.37% from September 30, while LME copper closed at 10,374 USD/ton, down 3.05% from October 3 [1][17]. - **Futures**: The active SHFE copper contract's open interest decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Group 1 - Recent copper prices have been fluctuating at high levels, with domestic copper prices ranging between 78,000-80,000 CNY/ton and London copper prices between 9,600-9,900 USD/ton, indicating a stable market with both upper and lower limits [4] - The Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, with the probability now at 85.2% [7][8] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of risk, with a slowdown in job growth and a potential increase in unemployment rates due to reduced immigration affecting labor supply [7][8] Group 2 - On the supply side, tight copper raw material supply and the approaching traditional peak season are positive factors, while the implementation of U.S. copper tariffs is expected to increase supply outside the U.S. [12] - Global copper production from major mining companies saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with some companies reducing their production guidance for the year [12][15] - The recent policy changes regarding recycled copper may lead to increased costs for recycling companies, potentially reducing their output and increasing refined copper consumption [15] Group 3 - Downstream demand for copper is expected to remain resilient despite weak real estate data and declining production in the home appliance sector, with a slight increase in refined copper consumption anticipated in August [16] - The U.S. copper tariffs have led to a significant increase in domestic copper inventories, and the expected drop in imports post-tariff implementation may increase supply pressure in the market [19] - Overall, if global trade conditions do not worsen, copper prices are expected to stabilize and trend upwards due to macroeconomic and supply-demand support [22]

Group A: Macroeconomic Factors - The core factors influencing copper pricing are expected to shift back to macroeconomic and fundamental aspects in the second half of 2025, as the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may not be as pronounced as in the first half [1] - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a "weak but not declining" phase, with GDP growth rates of -0.5% and 3% in Q1 and Q2 2025 respectively, indicating a weakening growth momentum [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely tied to inflation and employment reports, with current inflation pressures not sufficient to prevent potential rate cuts [3] Group B: Supply Constraints - Global copper mine production from January to May 2025 reached 9.524 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, but the growth rate is expected to be below 2.5% for the year due to potential production disruptions [4] - The continuous decline in spot Treatment Charges (TC) has led to a negative TC environment, yet overall smelting output remains resilient due to locked long-term TC contracts and by-product revenues [5] - The balance between mining and smelting capacities needs to improve through sustained mining capacity release and smelting capacity optimization [6] Group C: Demand Resilience - Global refined copper consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with China's consumption growing robustly at 12.18%, offsetting declines in the EU, U.S., and Japan [8] - Strong demand in China is primarily driven by investments in the power grid and renewable energy sectors, with total investment in the power grid exceeding 825 billion yuan in 2025 [9] - Despite the resilience in demand, challenges may arise in the second half of 2025 due to high base effects from 2024 and potential weakening in appliance and photovoltaic sectors [9] Group D: Inventory Trends - Current global visible copper inventory stands at approximately 600,000 tons, with a reduction of about 200,000 tons from March to June 2025, and a potential for further reduction in the upcoming peak seasons [10] - Concerns about high COMEX copper inventory levels exist, but a decrease in copper material imports due to tariffs may stimulate domestic processing demand, helping to alleviate excess inventory [10] Group E: Overall Market Outlook - The overall fundamental situation for copper appears favorable, with LME copper prices expected to fluctuate between $9,400 and $10,000 per ton [15] - Supply constraints and resilient demand provide a solid support for prices, while risks include inflation pressures limiting the Fed's rate-cutting ability and excess COMEX inventory suppressing price increases [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, strengthening market expectations for a September interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and supporting the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The Shanghai copper market has largely priced in previous negative factors, and as domestic terminal demand gradually emerges from the off-season, downstream inventory replenishment demand has been stimulated [4]. - After the US exemption of import tariffs on refined copper, global copper resources may shift to non-US markets in the second half of the year, leading to a recent continuous increase in inventories of LME copper and Shanghai copper [4]. - In July, the production of electrolytic copper reached a record high, and high production is expected to continue in August. Coupled with the rebound of import processing fees, supply pressure remains [4]. - Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile pattern, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors: the decline of the US dollar provides support, but the shift to a looser supply-demand balance and inventory accumulation limit the upside space [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, a position of 152,557 lots, and a trading volume of 50,116 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 70,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%, a position of 3,997 lots, and a trading volume of 2,534 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 9,777 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 14,623 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 449.75 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.89%, a position of 51,622 lots, and a trading volume of 24,634 lots [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 650 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 665 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.85% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 630 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.8% [10]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.84% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 50% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 85 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 100% [12]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 95 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 111.76% [12]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 78.95% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (spot/3 months) premium/discount is -88.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 23.12 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 35.23% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (3 months/15 months) premium/discount is -149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 6.43% [12]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest value of copper import profit and loss is 144.92 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 389.96 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of -159.14% [13]. - The latest value of copper concentrate TC is -38 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of -7.32% [13]. - The latest value of the copper-aluminum ratio is 3.8112, with a weekly increase of 0.03 and a weekly increase rate of 0.79% [13]. - The latest value of the refined-scrap copper price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 314.47 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 40.11% [13]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest value of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts (total) is 24,560 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,288 tons and a weekly increase rate of 15.46% [17]. - The latest value of international copper warehouse receipts (total) is 7,422 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,869 tons and a weekly increase rate of 377.91% [17]. - The latest value of Shanghai copper inventory is 86,361 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,428 tons and a weekly increase rate of 5.4% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper registered warehouse receipts is 144,800 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.05% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts is 11,050 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.67% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, with a weekly decrease of 150 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.1% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts is 124,862 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,269 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.03% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts is 141,942 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,239 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.6% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper inventory is 266,804 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,508 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.33% [19]. - The latest value of copper ore port inventory is 429,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.9% [19]. - The latest value of social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the cumulative production was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21]. - In June 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the cumulative production was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21]. Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 26.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.28 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.43 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 65.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.66 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.45%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.47 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.88%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.37 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 3.83 percentage points [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.560072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the cumulative import volume was 17.317529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -17% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -9% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, with no year-on-year change [26]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 479,902.059 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative import volume was 3,112,510.767 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2.6% [26].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations while awaiting the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 25, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,250 CNY/ton, up 1.07% from July 18, while LME copper closed at 9,796 USD/ton, up 0.02% [3] - Domestic copper prices are rising in line with the "anti-involution" sentiment in domestic commodities, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The cable operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline in Q3, indicating weak demand [3] - However, supply from mines and scrap copper remains tight, and with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are expected to rise [3] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 20% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 5% [4] - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 561,000 tons, down 23.2% from the previous week [4] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 449,000 tons as of July 21, 2025, up 5.7% [4] Group 4: Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 125 CNY/ton this week [5] - In March 2025, China's refined copper production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5] Group 5: Smelting and Exports - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The import volume of electrolytic copper in June increased by 18.7% month-on-month, while the export volume surged by 134.2% [7] Group 6: Demand Analysis - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 70.83%, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous week [8] - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in June, lower than the previously expected 11.5% [8] Group 7: Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 31.4% week-on-week, reaching 181,000 lots [9] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2.2% week-on-week, totaling 40,000 lots [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] - The report highlights that the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, which could disrupt global copper inventory flows [1][4] - Domestic copper inventory levels are at a near six-year low, indicating potential supply constraints [30] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [2] - As of July 11, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [2] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 403,000 tons as of July 7, 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase [2] Supply - The TC spot price remains low at -43 USD/ton, indicating challenging conditions for smelting profitability [3][59] - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but a 12.9% increase year-on-year [3][63] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has decreased by 836 RMB/ton, suggesting tighter scrap supply [54] Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a potential uptick in demand [3][73] - Domestic air conditioning production is projected to decline, with year-on-year reductions of 12.8% expected in September [92] - The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 13% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 18% [4][33] - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, reflecting a significant decrease [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4]