摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席本次论坛并发表主题演讲。邢自强认为，美国政策不确定性与美联储降息周期的开启，为人民币国际化带来了外部 机遇，但能否把握机遇，关键仍在国内经济改革的深化。 邢自强表示，美联储降息以及长期通胀将导致美国实际利率将迅速收窄，其债券的实际收益率也随之缩窄，甚至可能低于其他主要经济体，这将削弱全球资 本对美元和美债的需求，美元贬值在所难免，美债也会相对缺乏吸引力，甚至出现较大的波动。 邢自强还认为，下一任美联储主席可能面临更大的政治压力，影响政策独立性，使得未来通过加息来抑制通胀更为困难。"将来可能有点典型的类似于新兴 市场中央银行面临的困境，加息困难，降息容易。这种情况不利于美元。" 凤凰网财经讯9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英， 共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 邢自强解读称，这标志着美国经济"例外论"与美元资产"一枝独秀论"进入"祛魅"阶段，为人民币国际化创造了难得的外部机遇，但能否把握关键在国内改 革。 在这一背景下，人民币国际化迎来战略 ...

Group 1 - The forum discussed the concept of "anti-involution" and its positive impact on certain industries and companies, particularly through supply-side constraints that help improve product quality and drive up prices [2] - The recent measures to combat "involution" are expected to lead to a rebound in related industries and companies, especially benefiting listed firms while potentially eliminating some smaller competitors [2] - The capital market has seen a significant rise since July 1, attributed to the "anti-involution" measures, which are believed to be a crucial factor in this upward trend [2] Group 2 - The chief economist highlighted the importance of total demand policies to complement supply-side measures, anticipating that such policies will be actively pursued in the third and fourth quarters [2] - Recent policies in first-tier cities aim to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on both city-specific measures and broader monetary policies, including significant reductions in actual interest rates [3] - Despite nominal GDP growth not showing a significant rebound, the stock market has experienced a notable recovery, driven by trends in emerging markets and the depreciation of the US dollar [3] Group 3 - The technology sector has seen a substantial increase in risk appetite, particularly due to the ongoing AI revolution, which is expected to have transformative effects on the economy and society [5] - The emphasis on institutional development, such as encouraging listed companies to increase dividend payouts, is seen as a way to enhance investor returns and improve stock performance [5] - The discussion highlighted the need for a broader understanding of economic fundamentals, incorporating technological advancements and institutional changes alongside traditional metrics like consumption and trade [5]