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黄金上行遇“大收敛三角”压制 突破前维持高抛低吸震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-04 03:14
Core Viewpoint - The resilience of gold as a safe-haven asset is highlighted amid rising global economic uncertainty, with current prices nearing fair value despite not reaching the historical high of over $4360 in October [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have found solid support above $4000 and are consolidating around $4200, contrary to some investors' expectations of a significant pullback [2]. - The recent performance of gold is attributed to increasing global economic uncertainty, which has led to a stronger demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, driven by signs of economic weakness, is likely to create a favorable environment for gold, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in December [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates a potential risk of a pullback after a significant upward movement, suggesting a possible alternating pattern of gains and losses [3]. - The daily chart shows that gold has successfully broken through a small consolidation triangle, but caution is advised as this does not guarantee the start of a bull market [3][4]. - The market may experience further wide-ranging consolidation, potentially expanding the small triangle into a larger one, with key resistance levels identified around 4275 and 4325 [3][4].
期铜触及五个月高位后企稳,市场预期美联储9月降息【9月3日LME收盘】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 00:35
Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices stabilized after reaching a five-month high, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. later this month and a weakening dollar [1][4]. Price Summary - LME three-month copper closed at $9,975.50, down $5 or 0.05% [2]. - LME three-month aluminum remained unchanged at $2,619.00 [5]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $4, or 0.14%, to $2,861.00 [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $1.50, or 0.08%, to $1,995.50 [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $72, or 0.47%, to $15,304.00 [8]. - LME three-month tin fell by $71, or 0.20%, to $34,662.00 [9]. Market Analysis - The copper market experienced a technical glitch that delayed electronic trading by 90 minutes, with prices initially touching $10,038, the highest since March 26 [4]. - ING's commodity strategist Ewa Manthey anticipates that upcoming U.S. employment data will indicate a weakening labor market, reinforcing the case for a rate cut [4]. - Despite the potential for lower interest rates improving the outlook for metals, concerns about economic growth due to broad import tariffs in the U.S. continue to pressure industrial metal market sentiment [4]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers holding other currencies, with surveys indicating a weaker dollar in the coming months [4].